Tips for Tikay

[McGlashan]

It's for the fans. The motto for this fight is it's for the fans.

Betfair Sportsbook offer 7/2 for Fans to be thanked 1st in the post fight winners speech.  http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/floyd-mayweather-jr-v-manny-pacquiao/who-will-the-winning-fighter-thank-first Hopefully some of you can get more than £2.50 on.

I counted back and each fighter alternates evenly between god and fans. that's 40/40 each of them + 20% nobody thanked. On this grandiose an occasion it's unlikely a fighter isn't given time to waffle but we need to allow for the draw or something random.

Hopefully Floyd's winner speech is, "I'd like to thank the fans who came here tonight, the fans who bought this on PPV and I'd like to thank god, MGM grand, Showtime, Al Haymon, etc...

[stereoman]

Huh. I do love some of these novelty markets that Betfair come up with even if some of the markets are absolutely hopeless, wretched and of little value...I'm assuming these markets are courtesy of the imaginative traders who transferred over from Blue Square.

"Who will the winning fighter thank first?"

4/7 God
7/2 Fans
3/1 Family member/s
7/1 Opponent
50/1 Barack Obama
50/1 PED's

[Marky147]

It's for the fans. The motto for this fight is it's for the fans.

Betfair Sportsbook offer 7/2 for Fans to be thanked 1st in the post fight winners speech.  http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/floyd-mayweather-jr-v-manny-pacquiao/who-will-the-winning-fighter-thank-first Hopefully some of you can get more than £2.50 on.

I counted back and each fighter alternates evenly between god and fans. that's 40/40 each of them + 20% nobody thanked. On this grandiose an occasion it's unlikely a fighter isn't given time to waffle but we need to allow for the draw or something random.

Hopefully Floyd's winner speech is, "I'd like to thank the fans who came here tonight, the fans who bought this on PPV and I'd like to thank god, MGM grand, Showtime, Al Haymon, etc...

25 pence here

[McGlashan]

It's for the fans. The motto for this fight is it's for the fans.

Betfair Sportsbook offer 7/2 for Fans to be thanked 1st in the post fight winners speech.  http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/floyd-mayweather-jr-v-manny-pacquiao/who-will-the-winning-fighter-thank-first Hopefully some of you can get more than £2.50 on.

I counted back and each fighter alternates evenly between god and fans. that's 40/40 each of them + 20% nobody thanked. On this grandiose an occasion it's unlikely a fighter isn't given time to waffle but we need to allow for the draw or something random.

Hopefully Floyd's winner speech is, "I'd like to thank the fans who came here tonight, the fans who bought this on PPV and I'd like to thank god, MGM grand, Showtime, Al Haymon, etc...

They'd lay you a score on Performance Enhancing Drugs though
25 pence here

[Pete2504]

You win Marky, £2.50 here.  

[Marky147]

WAL!

It's for the fans. The motto for this fight is it's for the fans.

Betfair Sportsbook offer 7/2 for Fans to be thanked 1st in the post fight winners speech.  http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/floyd-mayweather-jr-v-manny-pacquiao/who-will-the-winning-fighter-thank-first Hopefully some of you can get more than £2.50 on.

I counted back and each fighter alternates evenly between god and fans. that's 40/40 each of them + 20% nobody thanked. On this grandiose an occasion it's unlikely a fighter isn't given time to waffle but we need to allow for the draw or something random.

Hopefully Floyd's winner speech is, "I'd like to thank the fans who came here tonight, the fans who bought this on PPV and I'd like to thank god, MGM grand, Showtime, Al Haymon, etc...

25 pence here

They'd lay you a score on Performance Enhancing Drugs though

[Marky147]

Spuds just nailed a 3 pointer, in the last second of the 1st half, to go in 2pts down, to the Clippers.

[Marky147]

Chris Paul, who was injured, scored an insane basket with 1 second left.

That won the deciding game, and the series for the Clippers.

I don't understand exactly how unlucky we were, but it feels like a pretty tough beat  :/

[DMorgan]

Clippers godmoded the 3 pointers and SA didn't do much scoring from rebounds and turnovers especially in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Feels like most nights thats a 10 point win but could be way off with that assessment, I haven't followed the NBA too much.

On to the next one

[Marky147]

Clippers godmoded the 3 pointers and SA didn't do much scoring from rebounds and turnovers especially in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Feels like most nights thats a 10 point win but could be way off with that assessment, I haven't followed the NBA too much.

On to the next one

Spurs had a ton of 'offensive rebounds', and the only one that the Clippers had, was in the last 30 seconds.

Hope Arb has loaded up on his fave hooch tonight, because it felt pretty painful here, and I was only on for a relatively small amount.

[McGlashan]

It's for the fans. The motto for this fight is it's for the fans.

Betfair Sportsbook offer 7/2 for Fans to be thanked 1st in the post fight winners speech.  http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/floyd-mayweather-jr-v-manny-pacquiao/who-will-the-winning-fighter-thank-first Hopefully some of you can get more than £2.50 on.

I counted back and each fighter alternates evenly between god and fans. that's 40/40 each of them + 20% nobody thanked. On this grandiose an occasion it's unlikely a fighter isn't given time to waffle but we need to allow for the draw or something random.

Hopefully Floyd's winner speech is, "I'd like to thank the fans who came here tonight, the fans who bought this on PPV and I'd like to thank god, MGM grand, Showtime, Al Haymon, etc...

25 pence here

thank god they have you flagged as a shrewdie.

[tikay]

Clippers godmoded the 3 pointers and SA didn't do much scoring from rebounds and turnovers especially in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Feels like most nights thats a 10 point win but could be way off with that assessment, I haven't followed the NBA too much.

On to the next one

Spurs had a ton of 'offensive rebounds', and the only one that the Clippers had, was in the last 30 seconds.

Hope Arb has loaded up on his fave hooch tonight, because it felt pretty painful here, and I was only on for a relatively small amount.

It was not Fred's best ever night, either, with Manny & Spurs both going south.

I sneaked a look at the Spready last night, as a lot of football bets successfully concluded yesterday afternoon, & we had surpassed two major milestones - over £7,000 of Profit since Day 1, & even more remarkably, we were at a ROI of 5.04%. Can't recall being that high before.

Woke up this morning to see we done a few hundred overnight, bugger.

Was a great day for us yesterday, though.

As a matter of interest, yesterday's football, & the boxing result, were both spectacularly good for the firms.   

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £39.33

Outstanding Bets £3166.35

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=24

A loss of £7 yesterday which was an extremely disappointing result given we took £395 of winners

+£205 the e/w return on Deeney 2nd in the league one golden boot at 50-1 and 40-1

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+£150 Bamford top Middlesborough scorer at 6-1

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+£40 Royal Baby delivery day at 9-2

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losers

-£35 5.05 at Thirsk

- £50 Pacquaio. Heaven knows why we weren't on Mayweather by decision, its seemed so likely. it went odds against yesterday. The 3 judges scored the fight 118-110, 116-112, 116-112, all in favour of Floyd Mayweather

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- £120 the San Antonio Spurs lost game 7 of their NBAplay off in the last seconds to the Clippers

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- £17 Listen won the first classic of the year, so the no classic in 2015 bet fell at the first furlong

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- £80 Newcastle's eighth loss on the trot, and a woeful abject performance it was too, meant they could no longer finish top half

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stale ante-posts

- £70 Hooper top championship goalscorer. 12 goals since Christmas but we were sunk after the first half of the season

- £20 Ricky Miller league two. hardly played

- £10 Vetokele top championship goalscorer. started like a train, fell away as soon as teams worked out they had to defend deep against his pace

ongoing poisitions

Test cricket

Root 358
Ballance 320



Ballance is not out overnight, we need him to score less than 38 today for the Root bet to win

County Cricket

Sam Robson hit 178 at Lords as Middlesex hit 329-4 on the first day of their LVCC1 game against Durham

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Snooker

Murphy v Bingham in the crucible final, each way on Murphy at 11-1. snooker is one of our worst performing sports, would be nice to get this one home

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NBA

The LA Clippers ante-post bet runs forward £20 e/w at 12-1



the last 8 sees LA Clippers v Houston Rockets and we also have bets on both teams in the Cleveland Cavaliers v Chicago Bulls. the Cavs is the biggest and would be the nmost profitable winner. no positions on atlanta or the golden state warriors, the major threats

Tennis

Batuista Agut beat Estrella in 3 sets to make the semi final in Munich

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MLB

the Yankees beat the Red Sox 4-2 and the White Sox lost 5-3 at the Twins. The Wite Sox now have a 2-10 away record, nowhere near competitive enough away from home at this early stage

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Football

the battle for the top 10 is intense

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Stoke losing 2-0 at Swansea was a bad result as Stoke fell to 10th. With £150 at 3.6 this is the biggest of the outstanding top ten bets/ At least Everton who became a major threat with their recent run, lost at Villa

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West Ham climbed back into the top 10, beating Burnley nil 1-0 and keeping the Burnley to finish bottom bet in good shape



Leicester's fifth win in six meant they are now out to 11/2 to be relegated, with Newcastle now right in it



West Brom winning at Old Trafford was a horrible result. the relegation bet is a win away from losing and it meant bets like stoke v wba v villa and palace v west brom got closer, when weeks ago they looked like they would be quick and painless profits

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Barcelona beat cordoba 8-0 and real won 3-2 at sevilla. barcelona remain 2 points ahead with now 3 games to go

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today, Palace..and yesterday's results mean a result of sorts at chelsea would be very welcome

root or ballance?

garner 3 ahead of henderson going into the final league one games,with a £500 trixie win riding on henderson not scoring a hat-trick

stale league one losses to take

[Chompy]

Obv it's arbboy's bet but you can back Stoke at 5-2 not to finish in the top ten if you want to cover the stake or go greeeen.

If yesterday's football proved anything (1.01s smashed up in a couple of spots, Watford and Carlisle), it's that nothing is set in stone in sport. It's sport and weird shit happens. There's too much 'this will beat that, then they will do this'. Place the bet, put yourself in a good position and then take the stress-free route imo.

Since it's the last game of the season and it doesn't matter about the price in future weeks being ruined any more...

Michael Bostwick is still being priced up as a defender in the anytime scorer market (Oldham v Posh) even though he's only played there once since Robbo took over.

He got another couple last weekend v Crawley and midfield is his best position, the one he played for Stevenage. He's also on penalties and half the free-kicks (more if sicknote Maddison doesn't play).

9-1 with PP is only there for the select few obv, but 8-1 and 15-2 elsewhere is way too big. Should be around 7-2. Rec £20.

[TightEnd]

Labour to win most seats on Thursday is a 7/2 shot

This is a tremendous value opportunity

To win most seats it has long been estimated that the Conservatives need to be 3% ahead in the polls

Because the Ashcroft polls are showing a slightly smaller swing con to lab in the marginals he is polling, it is now suggested that 1.5% to 2% ahead wins Conservative most seats

Of course there isn't going to be a uniform national swing but

There have been suggestions (and CCHQ hopes) that the last week will see a swing to Conservative, UKIP voters worried about Lab/SNP going back etc etc. At best with six days to go the evidence on this is very slight. Lord Ashcroft said yesterday "the conservatives could have done with a couple more weeks"

I was canvassing yesterday in three marginals. It is very very tight indeed in all three that need a 5% swing to go Labour

A seven-day poll of polls now puts the Tories on 33.9%, Labour on 33.5%, Ukip on 13.4%, the Lib Dems on 8.4% and the Greens on 5.0%.

Saturday's 4 polls:

Opinium/Obs  CON 35 LAB 34
CRes/IoS  CON 33 LAB 33
Srvation/MoS  CON 31 LAB 34
YG/STimes  CON 34 LAB 33

Avg: 33.3—33.5

the guardian projection yesterday had

CON 274 seats
LAB 269
SNP 55
LD 27
UKIP 3

www.may2015.com has this. Tories lead by 0.5% in their 32-poll, 2-wk poll avg

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Labour is set to lose 35+ in Scotland and needs to win 45+ in the rest of the UK to have most seats

On a theoretical uniform swing in England+Wales a 4.1% CON-LAB swing would likely give LAB most seats even if it lost all of them in Scotland

current england and wales only polling from yougov has the swing at 4%+

and who wins most seats is going to come down to less than 50 marginals

it is so close, do we really think that this is a 1/5 versus 7/2 market?

I don't (disclaimer i have recommended labour in this market at shorter too)

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats

I make Labour no more than 2/1 and i think we should bet it

the excellent political analyst Mike Smithson is tempted to agree

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

"If it continues this close then LAB looks set to win most seats"

will it swing late? are the polls underestimating..a "shy tory" effect?

as time goes on the chances of this reduce