Tips for Tikay

[Karabiner]

St. Totteringham's Day draws ever nearer.

[nellberg]

the giro d'italia starts next saturday, the first of the 3 grand tours in cycling, lasting 3 weeks, so if fred wants a sweat on it i'd recommend rigoberto uran e/w at 8/1. he is 3rd favourite and i have doubts over the top 2, and the depth in behind him in the betting.

Contador is the slight odds on favourite and is the best of these in grand tour situations. however he has committed to doing the giro - tour de france double this year. it has proven very difficult to do the double in the past, as the exertions needed to compete for the win is extremely tough both mentally and physically. he plans on retiring at the end of the season so may well be going full pelt at them both, but out of the two tours, the tour de france would be his number 1 objective for the season. i'm not suggesting he's using this as a training prep for the tour, but he'll be looking to peak in july. form this season has been fine, building up slowly, but his team tinkoff saxo is in a bit of chaos. their owner is very outspoken when results slip, the director sportif has already been sacked this season and the team as a whole haven't won the races expected of them.

next up is richie porte from team sky. he has been absolutely flying this season, crushing week long stage races all over the place. however, he has been on the go since the tour down under in january. cycling is very much about peaking for big objectives, and given he has been winning races consistently he may well have peaked too early and be on the way down. another issue i have with porte is that he hasn't produced the goods so far when riding in 3 week long tours. its very different to a week long race, having to back up day after day in the high mountains finds out a lot of guys who go well in one day races and even week long races. when taking over the leadership responsibilities at the tour last year he really struggled and until he gets it done its a big question mark over him. team sky will give him great support, so if he does have the legs that will be a big advantage.

my man Uran has been 2nd in the giro the last 2 years. he built up a good lead last year to lose in controversial circumstances. one reason he had that lead was he took time out of everyone on a long individual time trail, this time its even longer so the time gaps could be even bigger and that could make the race for him. he is also doing the giro-tour double, but crucially his aims at the tour is to ride for a stage win one single day, so his main objective and time to peak will be for the giro next week. his team etixx wouldn't be as strong as tinkoff or sky, but they will have enough men for uran to be competitve if good enough. form this season has been solid, hopefully building towards next week.

below him in the betting is aru and nibali from astana, only will will race. provisionally it is aru, who was 1 place behind uran last year. his season hasn't gone to plan, he's been out with a stomach ailment which some riders have claimed to be used as an excuse to avoid suspicion of doping. if he doesn't go they'll send nibali, who is preparing for the tour so will be under cooked. after that it really is sparse for genuine general classification contenders. pozzovivo was 5th last year, which was his best gc finish, and others will be riding in support of their team leaders (kreizeger for contador, henao and konig for porte) so that compromisers their chances as they'll sacrifice themselves for their leader.

barring crashes, which can obviously happen in a race, i can't see him off the podium and the individual time trail could give him a real shot at his elusive first grand tour. nothing crazy, just £10 e/w

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/giro-ditalia-2015/preview

http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/04/27/richie-porte-is-on-fire-but-will-he-burn-out-before-the-giro/

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/winner

[TightEnd]

i've done that

09 May 2015 - Giro d'Italia 2015 - Outright - Outright

Rigoberto Uran @ 8/1  EW @ 1/4 1-3

Stake : £20.00 (£10.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
120.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001317/F


i never realised it was 21 stages!!

does eurosport show it?

[swinebag22]

I climbed aboard this bet too but saw that Fabio Aru is 3rd fave with Billy's @5/1 and is a stand out 12's with BMU. No idea what the correct price is or if the guy is even a contender, but I was surprised at the price difference.

[TightEnd]

I climbed aboard this bet too but saw that Fabio Aru is 3rd fave with Billy's @5/1 and is a stand out 12's with BMU. No idea what the correct price is or if the guy is even a contender, but I was surprised at the price difference.

thanks

cycling people to advise please.

[TightEnd]

bet365 ‏@bet365

BREAKING NEWS: Our In-Play Bet Offer is back for Juventus v Real Madrid and Barcelona v Bayern Munich!

[nellberg]

yeh, it'll be on eurosport. a real grind, attritional stuff over 3 weeks, very tactical, tough stuff. aru is a danger, placed 3rd last year, but has had an interupted prep which in cycling is tough to overcome. even with a normal prep i'd have him 4th fav

http://velonews.competitor.com/2015/04/news/giro-ditalia-aru-rides-into-the-unknown_368097

[tikay]

the giro d'italia starts next saturday, the first of the 3 grand tours in cycling, lasting 3 weeks, so if fred wants a sweat on it i'd recommend rigoberto uran e/w at 8/1. he is 3rd favourite and i have doubts over the top 2, and the depth in behind him in the betting.

Contador is the slight odds on favourite and is the best of these in grand tour situations. however he has committed to doing the giro - tour de france double this year. it has proven very difficult to do the double in the past, as the exertions needed to compete for the win is extremely tough both mentally and physically. he plans on retiring at the end of the season so may well be going full pelt at them both, but out of the two tours, the tour de france would be his number 1 objective for the season. i'm not suggesting he's using this as a training prep for the tour, but he'll be looking to peak in july. form this season has been fine, building up slowly, but his team tinkoff saxo is in a bit of chaos. their owner is very outspoken when results slip, the director sportif has already been sacked this season and the team as a whole haven't won the races expected of them.

next up is richie porte from team sky. he has been absolutely flying this season, crushing week long stage races all over the place. however, he has been on the go since the tour down under in january. cycling is very much about peaking for big objectives, and given he has been winning races consistently he may well have peaked too early and be on the way down. another issue i have with porte is that he hasn't produced the goods so far when riding in 3 week long tours. its very different to a week long race, having to back up day after day in the high mountains finds out a lot of guys who go well in one day races and even week long races. when taking over the leadership responsibilities at the tour last year he really struggled and until he gets it done its a big question mark over him. team sky will give him great support, so if he does have the legs that will be a big advantage.

my man Uran has been 2nd in the giro the last 2 years. he built up a good lead last year to lose in controversial circumstances. one reason he had that lead was he took time out of everyone on a long individual time trail, this time its even longer so the time gaps could be even bigger and that could make the race for him. he is also doing the giro-tour double, but crucially his aims at the tour is to ride for a stage win one single day, so his main objective and time to peak will be for the giro next week. his team etixx wouldn't be as strong as tinkoff or sky, but they will have enough men for uran to be competitve if good enough. form this season has been solid, hopefully building towards next week.

below him in the betting is aru and nibali from astana, only will will race. provisionally it is aru, who was 1 place behind uran last year. his season hasn't gone to plan, he's been out with a stomach ailment which some riders have claimed to be used as an excuse to avoid suspicion of doping. if he doesn't go they'll send nibali, who is preparing for the tour so will be under cooked. after that it really is sparse for genuine general classification contenders. pozzovivo was 5th last year, which was his best gc finish, and others will be riding in support of their team leaders (kreizeger for contador, henao and konig for porte) so that compromisers their chances as they'll sacrifice themselves for their leader.

barring crashes, which can obviously happen in a race, i can't see him off the podium and the individual time trail could give him a real shot at his elusive first grand tour. nothing crazy, just £10 e/w

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/giro-ditalia-2015/preview

http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/04/27/richie-porte-is-on-fire-but-will-he-burn-out-before-the-giro/

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/winner

That's great stuff, thank you Nelly.

[Ant040689]

Ant, what do you think of Palace beating Man Utd next week?
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-man-utd/winner
4/1 is available at Tote and BetFred if anybody can get on those but these prices are contracting.
Palace actually have a better away record than at home and that might be that their set up with quick wingers suits a counter attacking style more. I think United will play into that as they'll presumably boss possession and be pushed up the pitch, ripe for turnovers with their back to front lack of pace.
Interestingly both teams have lost their last 3 games, both without scoring, both losing 1-0 away to Chelsea with the other 2 defeats very surprising ones and both coming after impressive runs beforehand.
I was thinking Palace might be about 5/2 so I'm having a small nibble at 7/2.
If Fred can get 4/1, I'd recommend. 7/2? I'd wait for Ant maybe.

Solid reasoning. I basically think whenever Palace are clear underdogs they are worth the bet.

Only concern is that 4/1 is still a little short for outright value. The 11/1 for the win against Chelsea turned out to be huge considering how the game went in the first half, Puncheon so close to giving us the lead.

I don't think you can go too wrong with the bet at 4/1 Dazzler, but I was hoping for more.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £737.28

Outstanding Bets £3026.13

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=24

+£496 The top goalscorer trixie, all three legs came in Bamford, Garner and Texiera

Click to see full-size image.

+£47 Garner finishing league one top goalscorer

Click to see full-size image.

+£175 Bostwick anytime goalscorer for Peterborough at Oldham

Click to see full-size image.

+£80 Root top scorer in the West Indies-England test series, despite two failures in England's final test defeat that will hopefully presage chances in management

Click to see full-size image.

losers

-£15 Crawley at home to Coventry

-£15 Agut losing to Murray in the Munch semi final

-£20 Conor Washington league one top goalscorer

-£10 AJ Leith-Smith league one top goalscorer

-£20 Ian Henderson league one top goalscorer

-£10 Will Grigg league one top goalscorer

-£10 Michael Smith league one top goalscorer

ongoing

snooker

Murphy 9-8 up at the half way stage of the World Snooker final, pegged back from 3-0 and 8-4 up so far

Click to see full-size image.

football

Palace now five points behind the top half with three games to play, only two points ahead of west brom in the match bet too, after losing to Chelsea

Click to see full-size image.

Man C back to second after beating Spurs. Arsenal three points behind with two games in hand. Aguero scored his 22nd league goal of the season. What might have been for the Aguero goalscoring bet if he hadn't missed time injured





Chesterfield now have to play Preston in the league one play offs

Click to see full-size image.

cricket

Rajasthan beat Delhi by 14 runs thans to 90* from the tournament's top run scorer Ajinkha Rahane, to go back to the top of the IPL table

Click to see full-size image.

in the other match Vijay was out for 39 for bottom of the table KXIP

in the county game Middlesex are well placed against Durham. Durham  157-4 chasing 463

Lancs reduced Northants to 198-6. For Northants Peters 56 and Bewton 8

Derbyshire 47-2 on a rain affected day in Cardiff

NHL

Minnesota Wild went 2-0 down in their play off series against Chicago losing 4-1

"Wild pay big price for key mistakes in Game 2"



MLB

Boston were swept by the Red Sox, the White Sox were pummelled by the Twins to complete a disappointing baseball weekend

Click to see full-size image.

Politics

round up of the election polls. the markets obviously know something we don't. Currently someone has £20,000 in the pink on betfair conservative to win most seats at 1.2

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Oh my, around £700 of profit yesterday, mostly from this.....


+£496 The top goalscorer trixie, all three legs came in Bamford, Garner and Texiera


....and this......


+£175 Bostwick anytime goalscorer for Peterborough at Oldham


Looks like we need to break out the saveloys, as they were both Chompy bets.

With several genuine experts here in different sports, & punting generally, we are very fortunate indeed.

[tikay]

Doubt we will ever see such heady heights again, but an amazing effort by all our tipsters.  


Bets placed 4,715


Profit £7,092

ROI 5.02%

[booder]

In Chompy we trust.

[TightEnd]

The NBA Conference semi-finals involving our bets get underway today.



Cavs v Bulls

Clippers v Rockets

in what are effectively the quarter-finals

our bets

NBA Championship   Cavaliers   7/2   100   £50 e/w 1/2 1,2
NBA Championship   Chicago Bulls 8/1   40   £20 e/w 1/2 1,2
NBA Championship   LA Clippers   12/1   40   £20 e/w 1/2 1,2

our teams are currently 2nd,3rd and 4th favourites for the title behind the golden statr warriors

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/winner

[tikay]

In Chompy we trust.

Word in your ear David - never trust anyone who resides east of the A1.