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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16428561 times)
arbboy
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« Reply #101535 on: May 20, 2015, 11:16:50 PM »

Cavs tonight.  Big fred position start their best of 7 series at 130am on the road to the hawks in the nba.

I've chucked them in a double (for the lot) with the Wachman horse that won the Guineas.

I'm surprised that GS shortened on the back of last night, would have thought it would be the other way.

They have to shorten because they are 1-0 up but i agree i was surprised how much they contracted.  They were hardly convincing as a 11 point fav at home given Howard missed big chunks of the game.  Harden really has a statement to make to the league and media about not winning the MVP when Curry did.  He is taking it personally.  He should have been the MVP.

Marky u had any cuts at bwin after wiggins double and stoke?  I haven't but tighty said fred account has.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2015, 11:34:04 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #101536 on: May 20, 2015, 11:26:06 PM »

Saints away at City on final day. 11/2 best price.

Nothing on it for City now, Saints will be going for the win in the hope Spurs/Liverpool slip up. Excellent performance at the weekend, think they will really fancy giving it a good go.
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« Reply #101537 on: May 20, 2015, 11:32:00 PM »

Hopefully some joined in with a couple of quid

Yep, I bunged my Sky free £5 bet on it, so thanks for that! Then I popped £25 on the under 2.5 to get my free bet next week   ;-)
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« Reply #101538 on: May 20, 2015, 11:40:20 PM »

bwin are still 2/5 chelski if you are quick against Sunderland.  Obviously massive let down factor.  Recommend whatever fred can get on at 2/5 given the cuts to bwin account.
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Marky147
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« Reply #101539 on: May 20, 2015, 11:40:36 PM »

Cavs tonight.  Big fred position start their best of 7 series at 130am on the road to the hawks in the nba.

I've chucked them in a double (for the lot) with the Wachman horse that won the Guineas.

I'm surprised that GS shortened on the back of last night, would have thought it would be the other way.

They have to shorten because they are 1-0 up but i agree i was surprised how much they contracted.  They were hardly convincing as a 11 point fav at home given Howard missed big chunks of the game.  Harden really has a statement to make to the league and media about not winning the MVP when Curry did.  He is taking it personally.  He should have been the MVP.

Marky u had any cuts at bwin after wiggins double and stoke?  I haven't but tighty said fred account has.

Yeah, I just couldn't believe they went 1-2 best, when they've won 1 game in a series they were 1/8 for.

Watched them debating it a bit through the season on First Take, and I knew it was always between those 2, but watch enough to know which one should win.

Harden looks like one of those 2v2 hustlers from White Men Can't Jump Cheesy

I tried chucking a tenner on Big Sam to Newcastle at the weekend (66/1), and they offered me 60p.
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arbboy
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« Reply #101540 on: May 20, 2015, 11:42:24 PM »

Cavs tonight.  Big fred position start their best of 7 series at 130am on the road to the hawks in the nba.

I've chucked them in a double (for the lot) with the Wachman horse that won the Guineas.

I'm surprised that GS shortened on the back of last night, would have thought it would be the other way.

They have to shorten because they are 1-0 up but i agree i was surprised how much they contracted.  They were hardly convincing as a 11 point fav at home given Howard missed big chunks of the game.  Harden really has a statement to make to the league and media about not winning the MVP when Curry did.  He is taking it personally.  He should have been the MVP.

Marky u had any cuts at bwin after wiggins double and stoke?  I haven't but tighty said fred account has.

Yeah, I just couldn't believe they went 1-2 best, when they've won 1 game in a series they were 1/8 for.

Watched them debating it a bit through the season on First Take, and I knew it was always between those 2, but watch enough to know which one should win.

Harden looks like one of those 2v2 hustlers from White Men Can't Jump Cheesy

I tried chucking a tenner on Big Sam to Newcastle at the weekend (66/1), and they offered me 60p.

I have just tried to back Chelski and my blose limits have been halved from what they were 6 hours ago!

Me and Onny tried to play bjack with Harden at the Wynn in 2012 just before the london games.  problem was the min hand was $5k a box and security soon shipped us away when we tried to buy in for $5k total!  Onny said 'you fancy having a $50k spin up for lolz just so we can sit with the beard for 20 minutes?  Imagine if we went on a heater!' i politely declined like the nit i am!
« Last Edit: May 20, 2015, 11:45:05 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #101541 on: May 21, 2015, 12:05:14 AM »

EPL relegation is a pretty simple formula now.  Hull have to win and Newcastle not to win for them to stay up.  The 5/4 12/5 double for this pays bigger than 13/2 but we can lay Newcastle to go down at under 11/2 (6.2 currently getting matched with ease if you join the queue).  I appreciate there is a bit of correlation in these prices but i still think laying 6.2 is good business if anyone is interested on the machine.  Looks a case of fav/longshot bias to me.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2015, 12:12:24 AM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #101542 on: May 21, 2015, 12:14:01 AM »

I have just tried to back Chelski and my blose limits have been halved from what they were 6 hours ago!

Me and Onny tried to play bjack with Harden at the Wynn in 2012 just before the london games.  problem was the min hand was $5k a box and security soon shipped us away when we tried to buy in for $5k total!  Onny said 'you fancy having a $50k spin up for lolz just so we can sit with the beard for 20 minutes?  Imagine if we went on a heater!' i politely declined like the nit i am!

You're moaning them down, you'll be at max £10 takeout by the weekend Grin

That's com, and you should just thank your lucky stars those dealers weren't on the firm, or you'd all probably be skint now!
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arbboy
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« Reply #101543 on: May 21, 2015, 12:16:39 AM »

I have just tried to back Chelski and my blose limits have been halved from what they were 6 hours ago!

Me and Onny tried to play bjack with Harden at the Wynn in 2012 just before the london games.  problem was the min hand was $5k a box and security soon shipped us away when we tried to buy in for $5k total!  Onny said 'you fancy having a $50k spin up for lolz just so we can sit with the beard for 20 minutes?  Imagine if we went on a heater!' i politely declined like the nit i am!

You're moaning them down, you'll be at max £10 takeout by the weekend Grin

That's com, and you should just thank your lucky stars those dealers weren't on the firm, or you'd all probably be skint now!

Onny still thinks to this day it would have changed our lifes if we bought in for $50k.  I agree with him but i knew we would end up busto!  He thinks we would be millionaires!
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Marky147
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« Reply #101544 on: May 21, 2015, 12:22:54 AM »

I have just tried to back Chelski and my blose limits have been halved from what they were 6 hours ago!

Me and Onny tried to play bjack with Harden at the Wynn in 2012 just before the london games.  problem was the min hand was $5k a box and security soon shipped us away when we tried to buy in for $5k total!  Onny said 'you fancy having a $50k spin up for lolz just so we can sit with the beard for 20 minutes?  Imagine if we went on a heater!' i politely declined like the nit i am!

You're moaning them down, you'll be at max £10 takeout by the weekend Grin

That's com, and you should just thank your lucky stars those dealers weren't on the firm, or you'd all probably be skint now!

Onny still thinks to this day it would have changed our lifes if we bought in for $50k.  I agree with him but i knew we would end up busto!  He thinks we would be millionaires!

Onnyaments Cheesy

It would have changed his life, he would be the subject when the papers revisited this http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2266225
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« Reply #101545 on: May 21, 2015, 10:13:19 AM »

Daily Report

Profit on Month £937.75

Outstanding Bets £2621.02

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=24


A loss of £88 yesterday

+£45 under 2.5 goals Arsenal v Sunderland. Sunderland's 17th draw of the season, a Premier league record for a 38 game season



- £83 Arsenal not finishing 2nd in the Premier League. two points from nine from Swansea, Man U and Sunderland torpedoed this bet as once more Arsenal flattered to deceive and did not deliver when needed

 Click to see full-size image.


-£30 Rajasthan lost their IPL eliminator to RCB,who compiled 180 on what was a tricky surface. Always likely to be far too many and Rajasthan did not get close

 Click to see full-size image.


-£20 Droopy's cottage 3rd at Hove

ongoing positions

NBA


Cleveland beat Atlanta in game one of their conference finals 97-89. Lebron with 31 points



MLB

Both CWS and BRS lost close games overnight

CWS lost 4-3 to the Cleveland Indians

 Click to see full-size image.


BRS lost 2-1 to the Texas Rangers

 Click to see full-size image.


cricket

Middlesex drew with Hampshire in the rain affected Southampton match. Middlesex remain top after 5 games

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/county-championship-division-one/table

In Division two Lancashire scored quickly declared leaving two sessions to bowl at Leicestershire and try and force an unlikely win.

 Click to see full-size image.


A hour later Leics were 30-6 and later all out for 78.

Lancashire, comfortably the best team in the division are already over a win clear at the top of the table. We are on at 7/2

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/county-championship-division-two/table 

in cricket player bets

Vince 32 in Hampshire's second innings

Peters 82 and Newton 95 for Northants against Surrey

today

Monaco practice

the Lords test

Premier League darts

game 2 HOuston at golden state in the NBA

eurovision second semi-final
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Peter-27
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« Reply #101546 on: May 21, 2015, 10:48:05 AM »

Alright, as is tradition at the Monaco GP, practice one & two fall on the Thursday and so I'm suggesting my initial bets early Smiley

Race Winner: Lewis Hamilton @ EVS with Hills. Given the way this season has gone so far, I'm surprised to see Hamilton available at evens. Suggest £20.

Points Finish: Pastor Maldonado @ EVS with a lot of bookies. If everyone was in the same car, on this track, Pastor would definitely be in the top five - he's phenomenally quick around Monaco. Suggest £50 on this one if you have the money to spare because this price is just completely wrong.

Points Finish: Jenson Button @ 17/11 with Blose. McLaren are bringing an aggressive upgrade package to this track, on a circuit as crazy as Monaco, I would say 17/11 is too high. Suggest £10.

Podium Finish: Valtteri Bottas @ 6/1 ish with the exchange. Quite simply too high. Suggest £10 at above 5/1.

As always, I will keep you up-to-date as the weekend progresses.

good grief Peter, nice contrarian stuff

Crashtor Maldonado to get round Monaco in one piece? :-) we have to go back to GP2 for good old Crashtor doing well at Monaco since when at monaco he has 18th, retired, retired, retired in F1

and so far this year he has 4 retirements and a 15th.

right i'll shut up place it and hope it wins

21 May 2015 - Monaco F1 Grand Prix - Race Winner - Race Winner

Lewis Hamilton @ EVS

Stake : £20.00
Estimated Returns : £
40.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001323/F

BWIN limited on our venezuelan superstar, which is rare. so did ladbrokes so bfsb

Pastor Maldonado
Points Finish
£50 at ev
Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000142

Bwin restricted on button as well. looks like the bwin account might be in trouble (we've hammered it recently with winnings it has to be said)

so had to go elsewhere

F1 - Monaco Grand Prix
Points Finish
   Button, Jenson    5/4    
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 22.50
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 22.50

"If Williams are going to get a podium this season, why not Monaco?" because they'll not qualify in front of the ferrari's, start 5th-6th and have to hope for a jumbled race to get past them on strategy?

Valtteri Bottas 6.15 £10.00 £51.48
Ref: 50736501715 Matched: 11:01 20-May-15

Maldonado has struggled to finish in Monaco (and every other track!) in F1, however Lotus are aware of this and have worked on making their car as user-friendly as possible for this race. They're targeting a haul of points here. It's not the most aggressive way to set-up a car, but Pastor's natural speed around this track should see him into the points.

As for Bottas, qualifying ahead of Raikkonen and a retirement for Mercedes or Vettel will see him on the podium. Plus, I have a suspicion that Williams could well match Ferrari for pace here. The price warrants the bet Smiley

With regard to Bottas can I ask why you think the odds are too high - is this with regard to his odds for the same bet at other circuits?  Why is the Williams better suited to Monaco than elsewhere?

As above.

The price is too high on this specific track given the likelihood of retirements. Also, Williams have an aerodynamically efficient car, something which should benefit them on the streets of Monaco when turbulent air bounces off the barriers and interacts with the car.

But he has yet to finish at Monaco?

Nope, but I reckon this will be the year  Wink Reasons above.

Having seen your F1 bets.

Because of the rain due over the weekend in Monaco

I've had a punt on the Williams Boys Each Way

E/W Massa @ 100/1 and Bottas @ 66/1 Either must finish in Top 2

This is only because of the weather I have had this bet and the odds offered
I think are worth a punt.

Regards

M

 


Chance of precipitation on Sunday currently stands at 4% according to the FIA weather systems. But anything can happen at Monaco, good luck! Smiley

 
Monaco again

This is only a b365 market

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/monaco-grand-prix/qualifying-winning-margin

last three years the qualifying winning margins are

0.059, Rosberg over Hamilton (0.34 back to 3rd Ricciardo (rbr))

0.091, Rosberg over Hamilton (only 0.02 back to 3rd (vettel/rbr))

and, even thoughobviously anything beyond a couple of years ago is moot as the regulations are different,  

0.080, Schumacher over Webber (0.06 back to 3rd)


reasons pretty clear...short tight circuit, margins are very fine. pole position crucial

i suspect ferrari might be quite close to mercedes all weekend as well, but even if we just take rosberg/hamilton...where here rosberg is a bit of a course specialist and this helps mitigate his slight disadvantage on one lap qualifying pace at most venues......  

shouldn't under 0.15 seconds be odds on?

I did look at this, but evens is too low. I'd want higher.

On this Maldanado bet, if we follow Peter's logic, should we be taking the top 6 finish?  

He does seem fast round the circuit, so if he finishes in the points, he has a better chance of top 6 then expected.  To me it seems that one of Grosjean 5/2 and Maldanado 5/1 must be wrong anyway.  Just thinking out loud and obviously not a Maldanado fan.

Barring retirements, the top seven is basically set in stone:

Mercedes, Ferrari, Williams, Ricciardo.

I would want a higher price for a Lotus top six.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2015, 10:50:07 AM by Peter-27 » Logged

nellberg
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« Reply #101547 on: May 21, 2015, 11:51:01 AM »

Giro update, our man fell yesterday but managed to get back in the peloton with no time loses. Didn't look too bad and he was riding strongly after, so will have to see how he backs up today but fingers crossed he is ok. Contador scored some psychological points yesterday over the pack with a strong attack but didn't gain any more time so still as you were at the top of the GC. Today offers a bit of an opportunity for time gaps as is some short sharp climbs at the end of the days racing.

Aim for Uran will be stay with the top 2 today, then tomorrow is a flat stage where nothing barring accidents will change the overall picture, rhave an easy day then onto saturday's individual time time, which is make-or-break for him. still clinging on in there!
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« Reply #101548 on: May 21, 2015, 12:28:55 PM »

Ballance gone for 1...
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« Reply #101549 on: May 21, 2015, 05:57:18 PM »

Luis figo withdraws from the FIFA race and explains why our Blatter bet wins next week

 Click to see full-size image.
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