Alright, as is tradition at the Monaco GP, practice one & two fall on the Thursday and so I'm suggesting my initial bets early
Race Winner: Lewis Hamilton @ EVS with Hills. Given the way this season has gone so far, I'm surprised to see Hamilton available at evens. Suggest £20.
Points Finish: Pastor Maldonado @ EVS with a lot of bookies. If everyone was in the same car, on this track, Pastor would definitely be in the top five - he's phenomenally quick around Monaco. Suggest £50 on this one if you have the money to spare because this price is just completely wrong.
Points Finish: Jenson Button @ 17/11 with Blose. McLaren are bringing an aggressive upgrade package to this track, on a circuit as crazy as Monaco, I would say 17/11 is too high. Suggest £10.
Podium Finish: Valtteri Bottas @ 6/1 ish with the exchange. Quite simply too high. Suggest £10 at above 5/1.
As always, I will keep you up-to-date as the weekend progresses.
good grief Peter, nice contrarian stuff
Crashtor Maldonado to get round Monaco in one piece? :-) we have to go back to GP2 for good old Crashtor doing well at Monaco since when at monaco he has 18th, retired, retired, retired in F1
and so far this year he has 4 retirements and a 15th.
right i'll shut up place it and hope it wins
21 May 2015 - Monaco F1 Grand Prix - Race Winner - Race Winner
Lewis Hamilton @ EVS
Stake : £20.00
Estimated Returns : £
40.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001323/F
BWIN limited on our venezuelan superstar, which is rare. so did ladbrokes so bfsb
Pastor Maldonado
Points Finish
£50 at ev
Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000142
Bwin restricted on button as well. looks like the bwin account might be in trouble (we've hammered it recently with winnings it has to be said)
so had to go elsewhere
F1 - Monaco Grand Prix
Points Finish
Button, Jenson 5/4
Total stake £ 10.00
Estimated return £ 22.50
Full stake £ 10.00
Full estimated return £ 22.50
"If Williams are going to get a podium this season, why not Monaco?" because they'll not qualify in front of the ferrari's, start 5th-6th and have to hope for a jumbled race to get past them on strategy?
Valtteri Bottas 6.15 £10.00 £51.48
Ref: 50736501715 Matched: 11:01 20-May-15
Maldonado has struggled to finish in Monaco (and every other track!) in F1, however Lotus are aware of this and have worked on making their car as user-friendly as possible for this race. They're targeting a haul of points here. It's not the most aggressive way to set-up a car, but Pastor's natural speed around this track should see him into the points.
As for Bottas, qualifying ahead of Raikkonen and a retirement for Mercedes or Vettel will see him on the podium. Plus, I have a suspicion that Williams could well match Ferrari for pace here. The price warrants the bet
With regard to Bottas can I ask why you think the odds are too high - is this with regard to his odds for the same bet at other circuits? Why is the Williams better suited to Monaco than elsewhere?
As above.
The price is too high on this specific track given the likelihood of retirements. Also, Williams have an aerodynamically efficient car, something which should benefit them on the streets of Monaco when turbulent air bounces off the barriers and interacts with the car.
But he has yet to finish at Monaco?
Nope, but I reckon this will be the year
Reasons above.
Having seen your F1 bets.
Because of the rain due over the weekend in Monaco
I've had a punt on the Williams Boys Each Way
E/W Massa @ 100/1 and Bottas @ 66/1 Either must finish in Top 2
This is only because of the weather I have had this bet and the odds offered
I think are worth a punt.
Regards
M
Chance of precipitation on Sunday currently stands at 4% according to the FIA weather systems. But anything can happen at Monaco, good luck!
Monaco again
This is only a b365 market
http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/monaco-grand-prix/qualifying-winning-marginlast three years the qualifying winning margins are
0.059, Rosberg over Hamilton (0.34 back to 3rd Ricciardo (rbr))
0.091, Rosberg over Hamilton (only 0.02 back to 3rd (vettel/rbr))
and, even thoughobviously anything beyond a couple of years ago is moot as the regulations are different,
0.080, Schumacher over Webber (0.06 back to 3rd)
reasons pretty clear...short tight circuit, margins are very fine. pole position crucial
i suspect ferrari might be quite close to mercedes all weekend as well, but even if we just take rosberg/hamilton...where here rosberg is a bit of a course specialist and this helps mitigate his slight disadvantage on one lap qualifying pace at most venues......
shouldn't under 0.15 seconds be odds on?
I did look at this, but evens is too low. I'd want higher.
On this Maldanado bet, if we follow Peter's logic, should we be taking the top 6 finish?
He does seem fast round the circuit, so if he finishes in the points, he has a better chance of top 6 then expected. To me it seems that one of Grosjean 5/2 and Maldanado 5/1 must be wrong anyway. Just thinking out loud and obviously not a Maldanado fan.
Barring retirements, the top seven is basically set in stone:
Mercedes, Ferrari, Williams, Ricciardo.
I would want a higher price for a Lotus top six.
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