Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Is it a top heavy draw in 2015 or does it just seem 'top heavy' because of the names involved as their rep's from the past and/or on different surfaces?  Murray will never win the French or come close to winning it.  Nadal is miles over the hill compared to his peak.

Djok was always going to have to run into at least two of these at some stage anyway.  Who is to say Nadal and Murray will even get the relative rounds to meet Djok anyway? 

well the betting is top heavy. won't get many slams where it is 6/1 to win a half and not have to beat the clear world number 1 to do so?

[TightEnd]

Murray, Djokovic and Nadal drawn in the same half for Roland Garros

Murray seeded 3.

djokovic v nadal seeded for the quarters

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/22713813

the betting market

every single player in the bottom half of the draw is 12-1 or higher

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/mens/winner

e/w is 1,2 1/2

players in the bottom half in seed order are

federer 12-1
berdych 40-1
nishikori 12-1
wawrinka 25-1
Simon 500-1
Monfils 40-1

who is going to win the bottom half? looks completely open and we're getting a minimum of 6-1 a player winning this half

Anyone in the bottom half of the draw could be turned over on clay I think.  As you say wide open.  I think we should throw some darts on some outsiders who have shown a smidgeon of form on the clay this season.  The below 3 players are all generally available at 250-1 but 500-1 with some bookies (not sure if Fred has them though).  I'm going to have £5 e/w on all three - seems a cheap way of taking on a lop sided draw.

Dominic Thiem
Philip Kohlschrieber
Bautista-Agut

careful, all the fancy prices are not each way (888, unibet etc)

[Marky147]

In preparation for some upcoming Greyhound Derby AP stuff over the weekend we can maybe try and win some funds for those bets by placing one at a Romford tonight that I popped up on the dog thread. Copy and paste.....

I like Borna Karma's chances in the 8:50 at Romford tonight. Big drop in class from what she has been facing recently. Nothing in tonight's race has performed anything like Karma at Romford and it's not as if anything has been setting the world alight elsewhere. She has impressed recently, showing a mix of early and then also showing decent ability to run on, which is new for her. I reckon 5 comes out slow and she paces up in the lead or close to the lead and just proves fastest - throw in the recent sub 3:70 sectionals and it's over early.

In recent races against the likes of Evanta Fantasy and Millwards Katy she's went off at 2/1, 5/2 and 3/1 - she's 5/2 in one place at the moment, 365, which given the drop in class and price comparison makes her a must bet for me. Think we missed the 11/4 Lads earlier.

Recommend £30 at 5/2 on B365. Standout price.

no go with bet365

i could do 9/4 elsewhere

up to you, please

http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/romford/20:50/winner

Fred/Tote are 5/2, or you want me to do it with everyday, who are BOG?

[arbboy]

Is it a top heavy draw in 2015 or does it just seem 'top heavy' because of the names involved as their rep's from the past and/or on different surfaces?  Murray will never win the French or come close to winning it.  Nadal is miles over the hill compared to his peak.

Djok was always going to have to run into at least two of these at some stage anyway.  Who is to say Nadal and Murray will even get the relative rounds to meet Djok anyway? 

well the betting is top heavy. won't get many slams where it is 6/1 to win a half and not have to beat the clear world number 1 to do so?

It is surely just a case of backing Fed and Nish ew as backing anything else you are setting fire to far too much margin on the win part of the bet to justify the ev in the place part.  Wawrinka is a classic example of this.  Nearly double the win price on the machine to his top price on oddschecker.  Paddy power are 1/3 1,2 ew terms as well just incase any hasn't noticed (which is what i would be if i was a layer)

[TightEnd]

In preparation for some upcoming Greyhound Derby AP stuff over the weekend we can maybe try and win some funds for those bets by placing one at a Romford tonight that I popped up on the dog thread. Copy and paste.....

I like Borna Karma's chances in the 8:50 at Romford tonight. Big drop in class from what she has been facing recently. Nothing in tonight's race has performed anything like Karma at Romford and it's not as if anything has been setting the world alight elsewhere. She has impressed recently, showing a mix of early and then also showing decent ability to run on, which is new for her. I reckon 5 comes out slow and she paces up in the lead or close to the lead and just proves fastest - throw in the recent sub 3:70 sectionals and it's over early.

In recent races against the likes of Evanta Fantasy and Millwards Katy she's went off at 2/1, 5/2 and 3/1 - she's 5/2 in one place at the moment, 365, which given the drop in class and price comparison makes her a must bet for me. Think we missed the 11/4 Lads earlier.

Recommend £30 at 5/2 on B365. Standout price.

no go with bet365

i could do 9/4 elsewhere

up to you, please

http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/romford/20:50/winner

Fred/Tote are 5/2, or you want me to do it with everyday, who are BOG?

no problem, it was only 365 earlier

i've done it with betfred

Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
400mtrs (OR) 400 Mtrs (Or)
Outright Betting
   Borna Karma    5/2    
Total stake   £ 30.00
Estimated return   £ 105.00
Full stake   £ 30.00
Full estimated return   £ 105.00

[DungBeetle]

Is it a top heavy draw in 2015 or does it just seem 'top heavy' because of the names involved as their rep's from the past and/or on different surfaces?  Murray will never win the French or come close to winning it.  Nadal is miles over the hill compared to his peak.

Djok was always going to have to run into at least two of these at some stage anyway.  Who is to say Nadal and Murray will even get the relative rounds to meet Djok anyway?  

Murray has played his best ever stuff on clay this year.  I don't think he can win it, but he's a live runner this year compared to previous years.  True about Nadal, but I still don't fancy many players against him over 5 sets on the Paris dirt (assuming his knees don't pack in)

[Tal]

Is it a top heavy draw in 2015 or does it just seem 'top heavy' because of the names involved as their rep's from the past and/or on different surfaces?  Murray will never win the French or come close to winning it.  Nadal is miles over the hill compared to his peak.

Djok was always going to have to run into at least two of these at some stage anyway.  Who is to say Nadal and Murray will even get the relative rounds to meet Djok anyway?  

I don't see why that's true. He is naturally better on hard surfaces, yes, but there are few players as gifted and as in form as Murray, plus he has just won two clay tournaments. He looks fit, quick and is hitting well.

Possible angle with the story about Nadal getting preferential umpire treatment today. Perhaps a backlash there?

Usual Britishism incoming...

This is Murray's best chance of winning the French right now and no one will want to play Murray. Djokovic would be happier against Nadal in his current form/fitness and Fed than against Mr Murray.

Not saying Murray is value. Just saying I'm minded to oppose Djok at odds on.

[Chompy]

A few bookmakers are still quarter the odds four places here, which is insane value considering the market rarely if ever gets it wrong on the ESC, and it's 33-1 bar five.

Of course it's possible that one of the bigger prices could nick a spot in the top four but it's more likely than not that four of the big five will fill the top four places. Arrboy will be all over this...

[arbboy]

Have to give up pretty big lumps on the win part of the bet though for most of the front 4.  The place terms look incredible though.  Which of the front 4 do you like at the prices Chompy from a win angle. 

[Chompy]

Have to give up pretty big lumps on the win part of the bet though for most of the front 4.  The place terms look incredible though.  Which of the front 4 do you like at the prices Chompy from a win angle. 

Russia.

[TightEnd]

watched last night

could understand Sweden being favourites, i have to say

liked Norway (dramatically powerful song) and Latvia (a trippy mellow massive attack type thing, not at all eurovision which tends to be big and power ballady)

thoughts chompy?

[Chompy]

watched last night

could understand Sweden being favourites, i have to say

liked Norway (dramatically powerful song) and Latvia (a trippy mellow massive attack type thing, not at all eurovision which tends to be big and power ballady)

thoughts chompy?

If you like Norway and Latvia I'd recommend backing them in the top ten market.

In something like Big Brother or X Factor I'd have no problem looking further down the prices, but not in the ESC these days. The only potential fly in the ointment this year is that two of the main players, Italy and Australia, didn't get an airing in the semis, so there's no way of knowing how they'll do with the voters.

Sweden don't have a great draw in stall 10, but Russia have got a plummer in 25.

The Belgium move may well have been inspired by their position in the iTunes download chart.

[arbboy]

How are the Aussies in the eurovision?  Silly question i assume.

[Chompy]

How are the Aussies in the eurovision?  Silly question i assume.

Diamond anniversary. Eurovision is very popular down under, so they've been given a one-off entry. If they win it, Germany will stage the comp next year.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/world-matchplay/world-matchplay-darts/winner

Ando 7/1 looks too big for the big summer darts donkfest in blackpool. Recommend £50.  Hard to see him going off bigger than this.  Should be 2nd fav for the event on last 6 months form.

1   van Gerwen, Michael   £998,250
2   Taylor, Phil    £603,750
3   Anderson, Gary    £589,500
4   Lewis, Adrian    £431,000
5   Wright, Peter    £365,000
6   Wade, James    £293,750
7   Whitlock, Simon    £243,000
8   Chisnall, Dave    £236,750

This is the current top 8 on the money list.  There are no major adjustments likely to this seeding list prior to the matchplay unless Chis picks up the £7k deficit on Whitlock in minor events prior to Blackpool which is possible and would take him into the softer half of the draw.  As it stands Power, Ando, Wade and Whitlock would be in the bottom half of the draw of the major seeds.  With MVG, Lewis, Snakebite and Chis in the top half of the draw.  

Definitely makes the Ando price look very big even if Taylor is so dominant in this event historically.  I really do think Taylor is gone at the game tbh at the very top level.  If Anderson finishes ahead of Taylor in this event it should take Taylor out of the top 2 in the world for the first time since i was at school i would imagine.  As Taylor is defending £100k of prize money from 2013 and Anderson went out in the 2nd round in 2013 winning only £7500 Taylor could easily slip outside the top 2 whatever happens here as there will be a £92,500 swing on the 2 year rolling money list after this event.