Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Given the £92.5k swing Taylor is virtually Gtd to be outside the top 2 in the world after Blackpool whatever happens.

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/world-matchplay/world-matchplay-darts/winner

Ando 7/1 looks too big for the big summer darts donkfest in blackpool. Recommend £50.  Hard to see him going off bigger than this.  Should be 2nd fav for the event on last 6 months form.

1   van Gerwen, Michael   £998,250
2   Taylor, Phil    £603,750
3   Anderson, Gary    £589,500
4   Lewis, Adrian    £431,000
5   Wright, Peter    £365,000
6   Wade, James    £293,750
7   Whitlock, Simon    £243,000
8   Chisnall, Dave    £236,750

This is the current top 8 on the money list.  There are no major adjustments likely to this seeding list prior to the matchplay unless Chis picks up the £7k deficit on Whitlock in minor events prior to Blackpool which is possible and would take him into the softer half of the draw.  As it stands Power, Ando, Wade and Whitlock would be in the bottom half of the draw of the major seeds.  With MVG, Lewis, Snakebite and Chis in the top half of the draw. 

Definitely makes the Ando price look very big even if Taylor is so dominant in this event historically.  I really do think Taylor is gone at the game tbh at the very top level.  If Anderson finishes ahead of Taylor in this event it should take Taylor out of the top 2 in the world for the first time since i was at school i would imagine.  As Taylor is defending £100k of prize money from 2013 and Anderson went out in the 2nd round in 2013 winning only £7500 Taylor could easily slip outside the top 2 whatever happens here as there will be a £92,500 swing on the 2 year rolling money list after this event.

World Matchplay 2015

    £50
    7/1
    £400.00
    Gary Anderson
    Winner

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000143

[aaron1867]

I just want to create the Russia argument again, to understand why people can think they have some sort of huge potential of winning this contest. I appreciate they might have a good song, but they are also hated by the European community. Are UK, Ireland, Spain, Germany, Italy and France going to be falling over themselves to be voting for Russia? They of course are struggling with the EU and I can't see how these big nations can potentially vote for Russia with what's going on? Look at the UK with the Iraq situation, we must have had a decent entry into this contest and still got very little points.

I simply can't see these huge nations voting for them due to the political and gay rights issues. Is there enough big votes from everyone else?

[TheDazzler]

I just want to create the Russia argument again, to understand why people can think they have some sort of huge potential of winning this contest. I appreciate they might have a good song, but they are also hated by the European community. Are UK, Ireland, Spain, Germany, Italy and France going to be falling over themselves to be voting for Russia? They of course are struggling with the EU and I can't see how these big nations can potentially vote for Russia with what's going on? Look at the UK with the Iraq situation, we must have had a decent entry into this contest and still got very little points.

I simply can't see these huge nations voting for them due to the political and gay rights issues. Is there enough big votes from everyone else?

I'm actually with you on the gay vote Aaron. I think it's bigger than people realise.
But political reasons are irrelevant to Western European countries. To Russia and their former satellites, they are huge and very much to Russias benefit.
Russia has a huge advantage geographically. Belarus WILL give them 12 points, guaranteed. Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan*, Lithuiania, Estonia and Latvia will all give them very decent points too. Every single year, regardless of the song.
But the politics will not play against them. Nobody in Germany who likes the song is going to say, 'nah, what about the situation in Ukraine?'
But I think it's a poor song, relatively speaking, and I think the gay vote will be strongly against them so I don't think they'll win.
Having said that, I am unbelieveably bad at Eurovision and lose my shirt every year!

* The Azeri president had to get involved when mysteriously Azerbaijan mistakenly gave no points to the Russian entry one year.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-22600892

[neeko]

If the Ukraine votes for Russia will depend on if Ukraine has a phone vote or a panel. a panel will be in Kiev and so will almost certainly give Russia null points, but if it is a phone vote then the east of Ukraine will all vote for Russia so could gain high marks.

[TheDazzler]

If the Ukraine votes for Russia will depend on if Ukraine has a phone vote or a panel. a panel will be in Kiev and so will almost certainly give Russia null points, but if it is a phone vote then the east of Ukraine will all vote for Russia so could gain high marks.

Yeah Ukraine is an unusual one for Russia. I think 50% of the votes are by jury and 50% by phone vote. So I guess Ukraine will give 0 points + 12 points = 6 points!

[tikay]

In preparation for some upcoming Greyhound Derby AP stuff over the weekend we can maybe try and win some funds for those bets by placing one at a Romford tonight that I popped up on the dog thread. Copy and paste.....

I like Borna Karma's chances in the 8:50 at Romford tonight. Big drop in class from what she has been facing recently. Nothing in tonight's race has performed anything like Karma at Romford and it's not as if anything has been setting the world alight elsewhere. She has impressed recently, showing a mix of early and then also showing decent ability to run on, which is new for her. I reckon 5 comes out slow and she paces up in the lead or close to the lead and just proves fastest - throw in the recent sub 3:70 sectionals and it's over early.

In recent races against the likes of Evanta Fantasy and Millwards Katy she's went off at 2/1, 5/2 and 3/1 - she's 5/2 in one place at the moment, 365, which given the drop in class and price comparison makes her a must bet for me. Think we missed the 11/4 Lads earlier.

Recommend £30 at 5/2 on B365. Standout price.

REMINDER

This is about to start, Sky Ch 212.

Our dog is currently 7/4.

[redsimon]

If the Ukraine votes for Russia will depend on if Ukraine has a phone vote or a panel. a panel will be in Kiev and so will almost certainly give Russia null points, but if it is a phone vote then the east of Ukraine will all vote for Russia so could gain high marks.

Thought Ukraine withdrew from Eurovision last year?

[tikay]

Our dog was 2nd, 5-6-2.

[arbboy]

Our dog was 2nd, 5-6-2.

Went off 2.8 tight on the machine.  Plenty of money for it.  UL lads, beat the price up big time as usual.

[swinebag22]

Premier league pricing question alert!!

How are Hull shorter to beat 'nited than Stoke are to beat LOLpool?

I imagine the simple answer would be on the lines of "Hull have to win" or "stoke/Man U are on the beach" but aren't these are generally mythical concepts?

Is there an angle here? I quite fancy stoke at home (5/2 general) even though this is the game that is most likely to be correctly priced up out of the 2.

[TheDazzler]

Premier league pricing question alert!!

How are Hull shorter to beat 'nited than Stoke are to beat LOLpool?

I imagine the simple answer would be on the lines of "Hull have to win" or "stoke/Man U are on the beach" but aren't these are generally mythical concepts?

Is there an angle here? I quite fancy stoke at home (5/2 general) even though this is the game that is most likely to be correctly priced up out of the 2.

Apart from the Newcastle and Hull matches, every match is a friendly. But every match is being priced up as if it's the 1st game of the season.
My angle was to take the 2 highest priced teams, Sunderland + WBA, and back them in singles and a double!
Back overs on goals scored?

[arbboy]

The best angle tomorrow is tighty's with Leicester's players getting to share a £5m bonus if they win tomorrow effectively for finishing outside the top 6.  Even that bonus must focus the minds of most bottom half EPL players before they jet off first class on their hols.  Solely tempted with the 8/13 Leics tomorrow.

If you want a few more outs and ways to win backing QPR to finish bottom at 1/2 (slightly bigger on machine - i got 1.56 in the week) is another plan of attack.

[TheDazzler]

The best angle tomorrow is tighty's with Leicester's players getting to share a £5m bonus if they win tomorrow effectively for finishing outside the top 6.  Even that bonus must focus the minds of most bottom half EPL players before they jet off first class on their hols.  Solely tempted with the 8/13 Leics tomorrow.

If you want a few more outs and ways to win backing QPR to finish bottom at 1/2 (slightly bigger on machine - i got 1.56 in the week) is another plan of attack.

That £6m bonus, how many is that split between? 25? That'd be £240,000 each so for Leicester players, that probably is a plenty big enough incentive!

[Peter-27]

There's not much value out there on the F1 markets after the Thursday practice sessions.

However, Max Verstappen in group C is worth a £10 bet. This bet suggestion is based on the fact that Max is more likely than 9/4 going to qualify ahead of Daniil Kvyat. If he qualifies ahead, he should stay ahead.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/monaco-grand-prix/group-c