Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Hope we didn't get on Baxsinszky - think she lost 10 game games in a row.  Pretty disgraceful from a 14th seed!

Wozniak won and Garcia is leading.  Hopefully someone put us off Safarova 

[Karabiner]

I wonder if Kyrgios is going to tell us who's been banging Murray's wife.

[Doobs]

Hope we didn't get on Baxsinszky - think she lost 10 game games in a row.  Pretty disgraceful from a 14th seed!

Wozniak won and Garcia is leading.  Hopefully someone put us off Safarova 

That turned out well.  Just Wozniaki left.

[TightEnd]

Three losers to start the month for £25

Charles Austin stayed at QPR and didn't go to Croydon -£10

Safrarova and Garcia lost at Flushing Meadow -£15


the current book is at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=29


still waiting for a comment, any comment, on my QPR suggestion. My post might be invisible of course

the county championship is in the final three rounds of the season

Middlesex are well placed for an each way return, Lancs are well placed to win division two. More details if anyone is interested


am i correct in assuming that July had a hotter day than August in the end? Should I, being prudent, take the august bets as losers now even though the winning month won't be settled until January?

[Chompy]

Correct, August was NOT a scorcher.

[DungBeetle]

QPR to keep Austin and Phillips, and Astin in particular must be a nice surprise for QPR fans

Austin for a season in the championship, is QPR to be promoted suddenly a lot more interesting?

4th, 10 points so far, 3 points off the top

16/1 to win it

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/winner

9/2 to go up (which i think i like a lot)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/promotion

middlesborough as short as 2/1 to win the divison already.....

I like this bet a lot.  I think you've missed another factor though - they've signed Toszer who will anchor the midfield and dictate the pace.  They've signed Angella who is a Rolls Royce of a centre back at this level.  Watford fans can't believe we've let Gabby go as he was needed for cover at Watford.  I bought their points after those 2 signings before the weekend and it's already up 5 points (away win included in the move of course).  If these prices are still around I think we should have some chunky trades on them.  Prices far too big imo.

£25 on the 16s and £100 on the 9/2 imo.

[tikay]

Three losers to start the month for £25

Charles Austin stayed at QPR and didn't go to Croydon -£10

Safrarova and Garcia lost at Flushing Meadow -£15


the current book is at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=29


still waiting for a comment, any comment, on my QPR suggestion. My post might be invisible of course

the county championship is in the final three rounds of the season

Middlesex are well placed for an each way return, Lancs are well placed to win division two. More details if anyone is interested


am i correct in assuming that July had a hotter day than August in the end? Should I, being prudent, take the august bets as losers now even though the winning month won't be settled until January?

I can't help with football stuff - or QPR - Tighty, it needs an expert. But if you really think it's a good bet, please go ahead, it'll give us a season sweat.

The Hottest Month "saver" bet for August? That's an awkward one. Really, I suppose it should be taken now, for the sake of prudence, but really, they are the same bet.

Up to you, or maybe ask Mere Adjudicator.

[DungBeetle]

QPR to keep Austin and Phillips, and Astin in particular must be a nice surprise for QPR fans

Austin for a season in the championship, is QPR to be promoted suddenly a lot more interesting?

4th, 10 points so far, 3 points off the top

16/1 to win it

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/winner

9/2 to go up (which i think i like a lot)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/promotion

middlesborough as short as 2/1 to win the divison already.....

I like this bet a lot.  I think you've missed another factor though - they've signed Toszer who will anchor the midfield and dictate the pace.  They've signed Angella who is a Rolls Royce of a centre back at this level.  Watford fans can't believe we've let Gabby go as he was needed for cover at Watford.  I bought their points after those 2 signings before the weekend and it's already up 5 points (away win included in the move of course).  If these prices are still around I think we should have some chunky trades on them.  Prices far too big imo.

£25 on the 16s and £100 on the 9/2 imo.

If Fred has any access to Spreadex, the QPR points look a good buy at 70 (71.5 on Spin).  Can't see how they won't be worst case scenario 8th/9th with 65 points with their squad?

[TightEnd]

QPR to keep Austin and Phillips, and Astin in particular must be a nice surprise for QPR fans

Austin for a season in the championship, is QPR to be promoted suddenly a lot more interesting?

4th, 10 points so far, 3 points off the top

16/1 to win it

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/winner

9/2 to go up (which i think i like a lot)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/promotion

middlesborough as short as 2/1 to win the divison already.....

I like this bet a lot.  I think you've missed another factor though - they've signed Toszer who will anchor the midfield and dictate the pace.  They've signed Angella who is a Rolls Royce of a centre back at this level.  Watford fans can't believe we've let Gabby go as he was needed for cover at Watford.  I bought their points after those 2 signings before the weekend and it's already up 5 points (away win included in the move of course).  If these prices are still around I think we should have some chunky trades on them.  Prices far too big imo.

£25 on the 16s and £100 on the 9/2 imo.

this is what i was thinking

i asked a bacterian last night because it was nagging away at me that this was a great spot and no one was replying lol, who confirmed to me that he got on at 16 and 9/2 three minutes after Austin was confirmed staying

anyway, the 16-1 is now 12-1.

the 9/2 is now 4/1

i think we will settle for this as the 16s has shortened 4 points

11 Sep 2015 - English Championship - Promotion - Promotion
Tip It

QPR @ 4/1

Stake : £75.00
Estimated Returns : £
375.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001399/F


by the by its not just austin, its phillips, fer, rob green

got to be top six, and 4-1 promoted out of that melange of sides looks ok to me

[swinebag22]

Gutting to miss out on the 16s, but the 12s still beats betfair, so think you should back them still, albeit for a smaller bet.

[DungBeetle]

The Preston over Leeds spread bet is up to 6.5 points to sell now (It's Preston points minus Leeds points).  This makes little sense to me - Preston have struggled for goals (5 points) while Leeds have drawn all 4 matches.   Leeds looked decent in patches to me against Burnley and Wednesday in the televised games and I think they'll improve this season under Rosler.

I think it's a sell.  Recommend £3 if Fred wants it (in line with the size of our other positions).  Max downside probably 40 points in the unlikely scenario Leeds are at the foot and Preston make playoffs.

Let me know if you want it and I'll add to Fred's book.  (Fred's mid is currently + £27)

I think it was requested I bring this up again after the weekend.  Leeds won at Derby, Preston lost to Hull but the bookies are unmoved on long term prospects and simply adjusted by 3 points.

Now Preston 3.5 to sell.  Leeds now 2 points ahead.  Remains a sell I think.

[DungBeetle]

And Fred's current mid value on Watford/Charlton is +17.5

Let me know if you wish to add the Preston trade.

[TightEnd]

The Preston over Leeds spread bet is up to 6.5 points to sell now (It's Preston points minus Leeds points).  This makes little sense to me - Preston have struggled for goals (5 points) while Leeds have drawn all 4 matches.   Leeds looked decent in patches to me against Burnley and Wednesday in the televised games and I think they'll improve this season under Rosler.

I think it's a sell.  Recommend £3 if Fred wants it (in line with the size of our other positions).  Max downside probably 40 points in the unlikely scenario Leeds are at the foot and Preston make playoffs.

Let me know if you want it and I'll add to Fred's book.  (Fred's mid is currently + £27)

I think it was requested I bring this up again after the weekend.  Leeds won at Derby, Preston lost to Hull but the bookies are unmoved on long term prospects and simply adjusted by 3 points.

Now Preston 3.5 to sell.  Leeds now 2 points ahead.  Remains a sell I think.

ok what did we say, £3 a point?

sell at 3.5.

max downside for accounting purposes 40 points/£120?

[DungBeetle]

The Preston over Leeds spread bet is up to 6.5 points to sell now (It's Preston points minus Leeds points).  This makes little sense to me - Preston have struggled for goals (5 points) while Leeds have drawn all 4 matches.   Leeds looked decent in patches to me against Burnley and Wednesday in the televised games and I think they'll improve this season under Rosler.

I think it's a sell.  Recommend £3 if Fred wants it (in line with the size of our other positions).  Max downside probably 40 points in the unlikely scenario Leeds are at the foot and Preston make playoffs.

Let me know if you want it and I'll add to Fred's book.  (Fred's mid is currently + £27)

I think it was requested I bring this up again after the weekend.  Leeds won at Derby, Preston lost to Hull but the bookies are unmoved on long term prospects and simply adjusted by 3 points.

Now Preston 3.5 to sell.  Leeds now 2 points ahead.  Remains a sell I think.

ok what did we say, £3 a point?

sell at 3.5.

max downside for accounting purposes 40 points/£120?

Yep - max downside Preston get 80 and top end of playoffs playoffs, Leeds down with 37.

Booked at £3 a point.

 

[Shrimper1]

I think west brom are too big for relegation at 7-2 with lad rooks.

It is a little shorter on bfair.

Again it is not really me taking a view on west brom but just a function of how the market rate them. I will happily take the view that the match prices are closer to correct and the big syndicates know what they are doing, and it is just a case of the derivative market  (in this case the relegation price) not updating as it should.

The market absolutely hates west brom, for example Watford went off a shorter price at home to Southampton than west brom are priced at home to them in a couple of weeks, and look at the disparity in their respective relegation prices. Of course their are always other factors such as west brom are a point better off but I think it illustrates the point.

Also Norwich and Bournemouth look to short for relegation given how popular they are with the market.

Of course it is possible that the big players are making a mistake or match prices are overshooting, but without doubt their is a disparity here and I know which prices I trust to be more efficient.

Thoughts?