Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Afternoon tighty.

Tonight's super league sees leeds host st helens in a repeat of the cup semi final. Leeds have beaten them 3 times this season and after an easy cup final win they should be fresh enough to win again. I think at a shade under evens briscoe is value to score as he is facing anthony swift who is not good defensively. I will be backing him with betfred for first try scorer as they pay double the odds if he scores again. My preference for a fred bet though is to go for carl ablett to score anytime at 100/30.

Suggest £10  Ablett anytime @ 100/30 with Ladbrokes.

9/4 now, sorry

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-league/super-league/leeds-v-st-helens/anytime-tryscorer

[TightEnd]

rosberg 3/1 win

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/winner

rosberg 3/1 pole position

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/pole-position

i don't think a case has been made for rosberg to get pole at all above (he's slower over a single lap, and in qualifying 10/11 times this season)

the race win is clearly different

shall we do the race win only?


if you think rosberg will win the title, 11/2 at ladbrokes should be recommended?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/drivers-championship

[Peter-27]

Trying something a little different; below are my bets posted yesterday, but with comments added in bold afterwards about their validity after the Friday sessions.

Race Winner - Nico Rosberg @ 3/1 with BitVector. While Lewis is the more likely to win this weekend (momentum), 3/1 is too high. Should be just less than 2/1 really. Suggest £10. Still recommend it, and it's 7/2 with the exchange. Someone earlier suggested each way terms, and that's a safer shout. If TFT does decide to go each way, then it should be a big bet, say £25 EW? Mercedes are super dominant here due to their upgraded power unit.

Pole Position - Nico Rosberg @ 3/1 with Coral. Same reasons as above. £10. Once again, same as above, each way may be better here? £25 each way at 3/1 with BitVector, CoralReef and the exchange.

Points Finish - Max Verstappen @ 11/8 with BitVector/Whills/TitanBet. While Toro Rosso are having quite serious (and largely un-documented) issues off the track at the moment, the Monza circuit should suit their car and particularly Max who is always strong on tracks of this nature. Suggest £15. Still recommend, 11/8 with even more bookies now.

Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 15/8 with PoddyPawer and Whills. On the assumption he actually starts the race this time, he'll be there or thereabouts. Suggest £15. Nico now 5/4, Sergio 6/4, both with SkyeBet. Hard to say what to do with this one. Prices are slightly too high. Around EVS would be more appropriate. £10 on both?

Winning Margin - 11-15.999 Seconds @ 7/1 with Blose. I expect Mercedes to have their biggest margin so far in 2015 this weekend. Yes, there are two drivers in Mercedes cars, but this is not a massively demanding circuit - whoever is quickest between Nico & Lewis this weekend should consistently pull away lap-by-lap. A late safety car is a threat to this bet, but the price is good enough to warrant a £15 bet. Still a solid bet, as previously.
[/quote]

New bet/s:

Points Finish: Marcus Ericsson @ 4/1 with SkyBet. 7/2 with Laddies/CoralReef/Betunfair/Betaway is also fine. Sauber look like the sixth best team this weekend. I expect them to score points with a retirement ahead, and 4/1 doesn't reflect that. Went for Ericsson over Nasr because he's more experienced and has the better price. Suggest £10.

Looking elsewhere, on the spreads, I think buying Force India on this market is a fantastic bet:

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/motor-racing/formula-1/mm4.uk.meeting.5045975/formula-1-2015-constructors-championship-index

With the new Mercedes power unit (which Force India, Williams and Lotus should get from the next race, if not the race after) looking so strong, the Force India boys have a real shot at pipping Red Bull for 4th place overall. They're currently 59 points behind. You'd be buying at 1, and the minimum result is 0 - so there is little downside. I think it's worth £20.

[Peter-27]

rosberg 3/1 win

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/winner

rosberg 3/1 pole position

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/pole-position

i don't think a case has been made for rosberg to get pole at all above (he's slower over a single lap, and in qualifying 10/11 times this season)

the race win is clearly different

shall we do the race win only?


if you think rosberg will win the title, 11/2 at ladbrokes should be recommended?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/drivers-championship

If anything, there is more variance in qualifying because one slight error can lose you pole position. I think £25 each way is the best way to go for both bets.

We're already on Rosberg for the title I believe?

[TightEnd]

rosberg 3/1 win

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/winner

rosberg 3/1 pole position

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/pole-position

i don't think a case has been made for rosberg to get pole at all above (he's slower over a single lap, and in qualifying 10/11 times this season)

the race win is clearly different

shall we do the race win only?


if you think rosberg will win the title, 11/2 at ladbrokes should be recommended?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/drivers-championship

If anything, there is more variance in qualifying because one slight error can lose you pole position. I think £25 each way is the best way to go for both bets.

We're already on Rosberg for the title I believe?

what we are on already is irrelevant as long as we are operating within the bankroll

here and now your comments suggest you'd back Rosberg for the title

He's 11/2

[Peter-27]

rosberg 3/1 win

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/winner

rosberg 3/1 pole position

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/pole-position

i don't think a case has been made for rosberg to get pole at all above (he's slower over a single lap, and in qualifying 10/11 times this season)

the race win is clearly different

shall we do the race win only?


if you think rosberg will win the title, 11/2 at ladbrokes should be recommended?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/drivers-championship

If anything, there is more variance in qualifying because one slight error can lose you pole position. I think £25 each way is the best way to go for both bets.

We're already on Rosberg for the title I believe?

what we are on already is irrelevant as long as we are operating within the bankroll

here and now your comments suggest you'd back Rosberg for the title

He's 11/2

I think Rosberg will win the title yes, however, like I said, race finishes will determine who takes it - that could well be purely down to luck. Nico is currently 28 points behind, I'd suggest waiting until the gap is 25 points or less again (which it will be at some point). Given the gap is currently over 25, 11/2 is about right.

[Doobs]

rosberg 3/1 win

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/winner

rosberg 3/1 pole position

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/pole-position

i don't think a case has been made for rosberg to get pole at all above (he's slower over a single lap, and in qualifying 10/11 times this season)

the race win is clearly different

shall we do the race win only?


if you think rosberg will win the title, 11/2 at ladbrokes should be recommended?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/drivers-championship

If anything, there is more variance in qualifying because one slight error can lose you pole position. I think £25 each way is the best way to go for both bets.

We're already on Rosberg for the title I believe?

The each way terms are worse than I hoped for.  To get 1/3 1-2 you have to take 5/2 on qualifying, 11/4 in the race (lolbrokes and shy)

[TightEnd]

Trying something a little different; below are my bets posted yesterday, but with comments added in bold afterwards about their validity after the Friday sessions.

Race Winner - Nico Rosberg @ 3/1 with BitVector. While Lewis is the more likely to win this weekend (momentum), 3/1 is too high. Should be just less than 2/1 really. Suggest £10. Still recommend it, and it's 7/2 with the exchange. Someone earlier suggested each way terms, and that's a safer shout. If TFT does decide to go each way, then it should be a big bet, say £25 EW? Mercedes are super dominant here due to their upgraded power unit.

obviously the exchange is no good for each way

Nico Rosberg (Mer) Italian Grand Prix Winner
3/1 Each Way (2 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £40.00
Potential Returns: £115.00

Pole Position - Nico Rosberg @ 3/1 with Coral. Same reasons as above. £10. Once again, same as above, each way may be better here? £25 each way at 3/1 with BitVector, CoralReef and the exchange.

none of those firms offer each way

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/pole-position

Nico Rosberg (Mer) Italian Grand Prix Pole Position
11/4 Each Way (2 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £40.00
Potential Returns: £108.80

Points Finish - Max Verstappen @ 11/8 with BitVector/Whills/TitanBet. While Toro Rosso are having quite serious (and largely un-documented) issues off the track at the moment, the Monza circuit should suit their car and particularly Max who is always strong on tracks of this nature. Suggest £15. Still recommend, 11/8 with even more bookies now.

on this already

Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 15/8 with PoddyPawer and Whills. On the assumption he actually starts the race this time, he'll be there or thereabouts. Suggest £15. Nico now 5/4, Sergio 6/4, both with SkyeBet. Hard to say what to do with this one. Prices are slightly too high. Around EVS would be more appropriate. £10 on both?

skybet.

best elsewhere is betfred

Italian Grand Prix
Top 6 Finish
   Perez, Sergio   6/5   
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 22.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 22.00

Italian Grand Prix
Top 6 Finish
   Hulkenberg, Nico   11/10   
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 21.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 21.00

Winning Margin - 11-15.999 Seconds @ 7/1 with Blose. I expect Mercedes to have their biggest margin so far in 2015 this weekend. Yes, there are two drivers in Mercedes cars, but this is not a massively demanding circuit - whoever is quickest between Nico & Lewis this weekend should consistently pull away lap-by-lap. A late safety car is a threat to this bet, but the price is good enough to warrant a £15 bet. Still a solid bet, as previously.

closed at bwin

New bet/s:

Points Finish: Marcus Ericsson @ 4/1 with SkyBet. 7/2 with Laddies/CoralReef/Betunfair/Betaway is also fine. Sauber look like the sixth best team this weekend. I expect them to score points with a retirement ahead, and 4/1 doesn't reflect that. Went for Ericsson over Nasr because he's more experienced and has the better price. Suggest £10.

Marcus Ericsson (Sau) Italian Grand Prix Points Finish
7/2
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £45.00

Looking elsewhere, on the spreads, I think buying Force India on this market is a fantastic bet:

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/motor-racing/formula-1/mm4.uk.meeting.5045975/formula-1-2015-constructors-championship-index

With the new Mercedes power unit (which Force India, Williams and Lotus should get from the next race, if not the race after) looking so strong, the Force India boys have a real shot at pipping Red Bull for 4th place overall. They're currently 59 points behind. You'd be buying at 1, and the minimum result is 0 - so there is little downside. I think it's worth £20.

what about Lotus, they are a point ahead of FI and getting the same unit?

will need help if we want on this

[TightEnd]

rosberg 3/1 win

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/winner

rosberg 3/1 pole position

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/pole-position

i don't think a case has been made for rosberg to get pole at all above (he's slower over a single lap, and in qualifying 10/11 times this season)

the race win is clearly different

shall we do the race win only?


if you think rosberg will win the title, 11/2 at ladbrokes should be recommended?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/drivers-championship

If anything, there is more variance in qualifying because one slight error can lose you pole position. I think £25 each way is the best way to go for both bets.

We're already on Rosberg for the title I believe?

what we are on already is irrelevant as long as we are operating within the bankroll

here and now your comments suggest you'd back Rosberg for the title

He's 11/2

I think Rosberg will win the title yes, however, like I said, race finishes will determine who takes it - that could well be purely down to luck. Nico is currently 28 points behind, I'd suggest waiting until the gap is 25 points or less again (which it will be at some point). Given the gap is currently over 25, 11/2 is about right.

you want to back him when he's fewer points behind?

he wouldn't be 11/2 then....

[Peter-27]

Trying something a little different; below are my bets posted yesterday, but with comments added in bold afterwards about their validity after the Friday sessions.

Race Winner - Nico Rosberg @ 3/1 with BitVector. While Lewis is the more likely to win this weekend (momentum), 3/1 is too high. Should be just less than 2/1 really. Suggest £10. Still recommend it, and it's 7/2 with the exchange. Someone earlier suggested each way terms, and that's a safer shout. If TFT does decide to go each way, then it should be a big bet, say £25 EW? Mercedes are super dominant here due to their upgraded power unit.

obviously the exchange is no good for each way

Nico Rosberg (Mer) Italian Grand Prix Winner
3/1 Each Way (2 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £40.00
Potential Returns: £115.00

Pole Position - Nico Rosberg @ 3/1 with Coral. Same reasons as above. £10. Once again, same as above, each way may be better here? £25 each way at 3/1 with BitVector, CoralReef and the exchange.

none of those firms offer each way

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/pole-position

Nico Rosberg (Mer) Italian Grand Prix Pole Position
11/4 Each Way (2 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £40.00
Potential Returns: £108.80

Points Finish - Max Verstappen @ 11/8 with BitVector/Whills/TitanBet. While Toro Rosso are having quite serious (and largely un-documented) issues off the track at the moment, the Monza circuit should suit their car and particularly Max who is always strong on tracks of this nature. Suggest £15. Still recommend, 11/8 with even more bookies now.

on this already

Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 15/8 with PoddyPawer and Whills. On the assumption he actually starts the race this time, he'll be there or thereabouts. Suggest £15. Nico now 5/4, Sergio 6/4, both with SkyeBet. Hard to say what to do with this one. Prices are slightly too high. Around EVS would be more appropriate. £10 on both?

skybet.

best elsewhere is betfred

Italian Grand Prix
Top 6 Finish
   Perez, Sergio   6/5   
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 22.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 22.00

Italian Grand Prix
Top 6 Finish
   Hulkenberg, Nico   11/10   
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 21.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 21.00

Winning Margin - 11-15.999 Seconds @ 7/1 with Blose. I expect Mercedes to have their biggest margin so far in 2015 this weekend. Yes, there are two drivers in Mercedes cars, but this is not a massively demanding circuit - whoever is quickest between Nico & Lewis this weekend should consistently pull away lap-by-lap. A late safety car is a threat to this bet, but the price is good enough to warrant a £15 bet. Still a solid bet, as previously.

closed at bwin

New bet/s:

Points Finish: Marcus Ericsson @ 4/1 with SkyBet. 7/2 with Laddies/CoralReef/Betunfair/Betaway is also fine. Sauber look like the sixth best team this weekend. I expect them to score points with a retirement ahead, and 4/1 doesn't reflect that. Went for Ericsson over Nasr because he's more experienced and has the better price. Suggest £10.

Marcus Ericsson (Sau) Italian Grand Prix Points Finish
7/2
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £45.00

Looking elsewhere, on the spreads, I think buying Force India on this market is a fantastic bet:

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/motor-racing/formula-1/mm4.uk.meeting.5045975/formula-1-2015-constructors-championship-index

With the new Mercedes power unit (which Force India, Williams and Lotus should get from the next race, if not the race after) looking so strong, the Force India boys have a real shot at pipping Red Bull for 4th place overall. They're currently 59 points behind. You'd be buying at 1, and the minimum result is 0 - so there is little downside. I think it's worth £20.

what about Lotus, they are a point ahead of FI and getting the same unit?

will need help if we want on this

Valid point, something I should have clarified. Essentially Lotus are not a threat because they are too inconsistent. Some of the tracks coming up such as Singapore and the US are difficult to achieve a good set-up on. Due to the nature of their car, Lotus struggle with this even on easier tracks such as Monza.

rosberg 3/1 win

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/winner

rosberg 3/1 pole position

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/pole-position

i don't think a case has been made for rosberg to get pole at all above (he's slower over a single lap, and in qualifying 10/11 times this season)

the race win is clearly different

shall we do the race win only?


if you think rosberg will win the title, 11/2 at ladbrokes should be recommended?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/drivers-championship

If anything, there is more variance in qualifying because one slight error can lose you pole position. I think £25 each way is the best way to go for both bets.

We're already on Rosberg for the title I believe?

what we are on already is irrelevant as long as we are operating within the bankroll

here and now your comments suggest you'd back Rosberg for the title

He's 11/2

I think Rosberg will win the title yes, however, like I said, race finishes will determine who takes it - that could well be purely down to luck. Nico is currently 28 points behind, I'd suggest waiting until the gap is 25 points or less again (which it will be at some point). Given the gap is currently over 25, 11/2 is about right.

you want to back him when he's fewer points behind?

he wouldn't be 11/2 then....

I'd want the gap to be 25 points or less, yes. Of course, the price wouldn't be as good - but the bookies always over value Hamilton. He's automatically seen as one of the better drivers to the untrained eye purely because of his showbiz lifestyle and media notoriety. So while the price will come down, it would be better value with the points deficit lower.

[TightEnd]

"I'd want the gap to be 25 points or less, yes. Of course, the price wouldn't be as good - but the bookies always over value Hamilton. He's automatically seen as one of the better drivers to the untrained eye purely because of his showbiz lifestyle and media notoriety. So while the price will come down, it would be better value with the points deficit lower."

I'm trying Peter, but i just don't understand the logic

[Peter-27]

"I'd want the gap to be 25 points or less, yes. Of course, the price wouldn't be as good - but the bookies always over value Hamilton. He's automatically seen as one of the better drivers to the untrained eye purely because of his showbiz lifestyle and media notoriety. So while the price will come down, it would be better value with the points deficit lower."

I'm trying Peter, but i just don't understand the logic

I know what I mean 

Basically, the price would come down, but not by as much as it should. Being within one race win (or one race retirement) would be a much stronger position to bet from.

[DungBeetle]

If we think force India run red bull close shouldn't we be selling red bull?  I can put on the force index trade if that is the way you want to go Tighty.  I have no opinion either way.

[TightEnd]

If we think force India run red bull close shouldn't we be selling red bull?  I can put on the force index trade if that is the way you want to go Tighty.  I have no opinion either way.

I'm lost. lol

on safer ground, Mr Hodgson has confirmed that the wonderful Jamie Vardy will start against San Marino, presumably up front with Rooney

he's 9/2 FGS 1/3 anytime with bet365, behind the prices of Kane and Walcott who presumably start on the bench

fwiw.

[DungBeetle]

If we think force India run red bull close shouldn't we be selling red bull?  I can put on the force index trade if that is the way you want to go Tighty.  I have no opinion either way.

To clarify sell red bull points if we think they are not going to finish 100 points ahead of force.  Will check back in an hour to see if anything needs doing.