Tips for Tikay

[TL900]

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/regular-season/comeback-player-of-the-year

AP 8/1 talk to me. Or is it just always going to berry?

[Tal]

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/regular-season/comeback-player-of-the-year

AP 8/1 talk to me. Or is it just always going to berry?

Tighty tipped Mr Peterson to get the most rushing yards and that must put him in the frame for CPOTY if he does that.

It's the baggage though, isn't it? If he'd just injected some black tar heroin or pulled his hamstring changing the TV between orgies, he'd be 2/1 for this. Even Michael Vick had an easier path back than All-day. 8/1 could look enormous in a couple of months, though.

If there weren't so many obvious candidates, I'd think Alonso and Clowney would be worth an interest bet.

[Ironside]

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/regular-season/comeback-player-of-the-year

AP 8/1 talk to me. Or is it just always going to berry?

think berry is value at 4.5 surely he just needs a reasonable season

AP surely cant win due to the reason for him missing the season last year

[Tal]

1-10-NE 46 (7:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass deep left intended for D.Heyward-Bey INTERCEPTED by D.Harmon at NE 7. D.Harmon ran ob at NE 7 for no gain.

In English, there was one turnover and it was the Steelers losing the ball.

 

sorry been away all day

Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots Most Turnovers
23/20
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £43.00

something to check when we wake up

(its raining in Foxboro currently, if you wanted some caution about overs - which of course the game looks like it should be)

Should be a winner.

[Tal]

sorry been away all day

Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots Most Turnovers
23/20
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £43.00


something to check when we wake up


(its raining in Foxboro currently, if you wanted some caution about overs - which of course the game looks like it should be)

BE - Neil I think, has tipped over 51 on BE's free write up.

Getting on this also or leaving?

Game finished 28-21, which means the unders came in, BUT that was thanks to two (out of four) missed field goals by the Steelers' replacement kicker, Josh Scobee, who has just signed for them, after being cut by the Jacksonville Jaguars. At three points a pop, either going over would have beaten the 51.5 total. Being a kicker in the nfl is a ruthless task, as the expectation is you make every one. Miss a few in a row and you're out.

Very unlucky to anyone who played overs.

[Tal]

Click to see full-size image.

Burning Man Festival in Nevada. Brazilian Ronaldo. Segway.

Yep. Think that covers it.

[The Camel]

One for the value boys to have a look at.

I was reading some guff about the Man U Liverpool game this Saturday, (could be a heated affair, maybe?) & I saw this.......


The referee on Saturday will be Michael Oliver, who has dispensed three red cards and 20 yellow cards in just four Premier League matches this season


So that (sample size, yes) is 0.75 Red cards per game, & 5 yellows per game. And this is a hot match. And he is a young ref.

Is there likely to be any value in the cards/bookings market, with stale, unadjusted prices?

The only market I could find was for a sending off - 2/7 "no", 5/2 "yes".

Maybe spreads might have a line, too?

0.0000000000000000000000000% chance the compilers haven't factored in who the ref is in their spreads.

If anything the line will be a fraction too high because of the reputation of the ref and the general expectation of it being likely to kick off between Utd and Liverpool, and all the ice creams will be wanting to buy bookings.

[tikay]

One for the value boys to have a look at.

I was reading some guff about the Man U Liverpool game this Saturday, (could be a heated affair, maybe?) & I saw this.......


The referee on Saturday will be Michael Oliver, who has dispensed three red cards and 20 yellow cards in just four Premier League matches this season


So that (sample size, yes) is 0.75 Red cards per game, & 5 yellows per game. And this is a hot match. And he is a young ref.

Is there likely to be any value in the cards/bookings market, with stale, unadjusted prices?

The only market I could find was for a sending off - 2/7 "no", 5/2 "yes".

Maybe spreads might have a line, too?

0.0000000000000000000000000% chance the compilers haven't factored in who the ref is in their spreads.

If anything the line will be a fraction too high because of the reputation of the ref and the general expectation of it being likely to kick off between Utd and Liverpool, and all the ice creams will be wanting to buy bookings.

Gotcha, thank you. I'll crawl back in my oh so comfortable shell, & try again in a few years time.

[tikay]

1-10-NE 46 (7:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Roethlisberger pass deep left intended for D.Heyward-Bey INTERCEPTED by D.Harmon at NE 7. D.Harmon ran ob at NE 7 for no gain.

In English, there was one turnover and it was the Steelers losing the ball.

 

sorry been away all day

Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots Most Turnovers
23/20
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £43.00

something to check when we wake up

(its raining in Foxboro currently, if you wanted some caution about overs - which of course the game looks like it should be)

Should be a winner.

Yay, well done Tal, our NFL season is up & running with a winner, thank you.

[tikay]

sorry been away all day

Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots Most Turnovers
23/20
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £43.00


something to check when we wake up


(its raining in Foxboro currently, if you wanted some caution about overs - which of course the game looks like it should be)

BE - Neil I think, has tipped over 51 on BE's free write up.

Getting on this also or leaving?

Game finished 28-21, which means the unders came in, BUT that was thanks to two (out of four) missed field goals by the Steelers' replacement kicker, Josh Scobee, who has just signed for them, after being cut by the Jacksonville Jaguars. At three points a pop, either going over would have beaten the 51.5 total. Being a kicker in the nfl is a ruthless task, as the expectation is you make every one. Miss a few in a row and you're out.

Very unlucky to anyone who played overs.

It was one of those "if it looks too good to be true, it usually is" affairs. (I did not have a bet).

Amazing how NFL produces, time & again, so many remarkable situations. How could he miss 2 from 4?

I planned to stay up & watch it, but fell asleep on the bloody sofa.


 

[TightEnd]

we have two season long bets that are pittsburgh related

most points in the league at 28/1

ben most passing yards 7/1


the steelers scored 21, but the offense looked very good (and/or the patriots defense looked bad too). when bell and bryant (week 3 and 5 respectively) are back from suspensions they are going to put up a lot of points. antonio brown looked in great form and had 107 receiving yards

they are going to need to score a lot of points because the defensive secodnary looked horrible. Cvering Gronk with a linebacker indeed, too....

a lot of steelers games could be high scoring shootouts, which is exactly what we want

Roethlisberger threw for 351 yards and last season when he finished 1st= in the category averaged 310 per game and threw for 4952 total

so far so good for that one

[TightEnd]

I'm a bit of a fan of the really good NFL commentators

Al Michaels is one. He was part of the legendary madden and michaels team.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Michaels



So the the NFL embraces fantasy sports (even runs a load of leagues on www.nfl.com) and DFS but does not support sports betting on the NFL despite hundreds of milions being wagered on the sport worldwide

Last night the Pats began the game -7.5 points on the spread

with a minute to go they were leading 28-14 and set to cover

the Steelers scored a late touchdown to make it 28-21

in that second there was a swing of millions to and from books in vegas

Michaels, a known gambler, is not allowed to reference this by the NFL so deadpans

"A garbage time touchdown, but not to some"

A great line that references the betting line without referencing it

[Chompy]

Douible fake eviction on CBB tonight. Farrah is 100% filling one of the spots, and Jenna should be shorter than 5-6 to fill the other with Scuy for those that can.

They go 5-6 Jenna, 10-11 Davro, 9-2 X Factor babies.

Davro had a rant at Farrah the other night, hence the price, but it won't split up the witches imo.

[TightEnd]

seeing our series bet David Wlley come into the side for the fourth game, having been left out in the first three and hooping the new ball and taking wickets is quite frustrating to be honest!

[the sicilian]

I'm a bit of a fan of the really good NFL commentators

Al Michaels is one. He was part of the legendary madden and michaels team.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Michaels



So the the NFL embraces fantasy sports (even runs a load of leagues on www.nfl.com) and DFS but does not support sports betting on the NFL despite hundreds of milions being wagered on the sport worldwide

Last night the Pats began the game -7.5 points on the spread

with a minute to go they were leading 28-14 and set to cover

the Steelers scored a late touchdown to make it 28-21

in that second there was a swing of millions to and from books in vegas

Michaels, a known gambler, is not allowed to reference this by the NFL so deadpans

"A garbage time touchdown, but not to some"

A great line that references the betting line without referencing it

Just as an aside I cant abide Kevin Cadle on Sky Sports.. his always seems to be struggling to find the next word... forever umming and ahhing... Sky just employ Mike Carson.. his  the best NFL pundit end of..