Tips for Tikay

[Stopsleyhatter]

14/1 looks a great price, to my untrained eye only Washington and the 49ers could do worse with the others improving steadily.Go for it as I know you don't do your own tips.

[tikay]

One for the value boys to have a look at.

I was reading some guff about the Man U Liverpool game this Saturday, (could be a heated affair, maybe?) & I saw this.......


The referee on Saturday will be Michael Oliver, who has dispensed three red cards and 20 yellow cards in just four Premier League matches this season


So that (sample size, yes) is 0.75 Red cards per game, & 5 yellows per game. And this is a hot match. And he is a young ref.

Is there likely to be any value in the cards/bookings market, with stale, unadjusted prices?

The only market I could find was for a sending off - 2/7 "no", 5/2 "yes".

Maybe spreads might have a line, too?

[Tal]

One for the value boys to have a look at.

I was reading some guff about the Man U Liverpool game this Saturday, (could be a heated affair, maybe?) & I saw this.......


The referee on Saturday will be Michael Oliver, who has dispensed three red cards and 20 yellow cards in just four Premier League matches this season


So that (sample size, yes) is 0.75 Red cards per game, & 5 yellows per game. And this is a hot match. And he is a young ref.

Is there likely to be any value in the cards/bookings market, with stale, unadjusted prices?

The only market I could find was for a sending off - 2/7 "no", 5/2 "yes".

Maybe spreads might have a line, too?

I'm sure I read somewhere he's been the bookingmost referee since he started.

He's also the best.

[Karabiner]

It's Tikay's favourite race at Donny today.

The Sceptre Stakes.

[tikay]

^^^^

bookingmost

As in winningmost


Love it. Not.

My line of thought was just that they must price these things up generically, but we have the possibility of a perfect storm here. Has or will the market made any allowances for that?

[tikay]

It's Tikay's favourite race at Donny today.

The Sceptre Stakes.

Stop it Ralph, you know I'll write chapter & verse given half a chance.

What a horse, what a trainer. Might be the best horse racing story ever. God bless Bob.

[Tal]

The world and his wife knows tonight's nfl opener will spank the overs on points. Both teams have injuries in defense, both teams will be passing the ball a lot, both teams have gunslinger quarterbacks, the wind will be low, Brady has a point to prove, Big Ben will be behind...

Despite knowing the bookies know that, I just can't get myself to back the unders.

What I do like is the Steelers being 23/20 to suffer the most turnovers with Hills. Patriots had the third best turnover differential (made - given away) in the league last year and the Steelers have a third string secondary out tonight. The Patriots' loss of their center is far less serious than the Steelers' loss of theirs.

If we fancy a gunfight, the ball will be in the air and open to challenge. I'd sooner back the team taking fewer risks and the better QB all round.

It's not a pretty market for the overround but I had this at Evs, 2/1 and 3/1 the draw. Prices are 23/20, 8/5 and 11/4.

£20 if we fancy an overnight sweat. Never done one of these bets before, so would someone confirm "Turnovers" in this bet means "team that loses the ball", not "team that wins the ball"?

[BorntoBubble]

The world and his wife knows tonight's nfl opener will spank the overs on points. Both teams have injuries in defense, both teams will be passing the ball a lot, both teams have gunslinger quarterbacks, the wind will be low, Brady has a point to prove, Big Ben will be behind...

Despite knowing the bookies know that, I just can't get myself to back the unders.

What I do like is the Steelers being 23/20 to suffer the most turnovers with Hills. Patriots had the third best turnover differential (made - given away) in the league last year and the Steelers have a third string secondary out tonight. The Patriots' loss of their center is far less serious than the Steelers' loss of theirs.

If we fancy a gunfight, the ball will be in the air and open to challenge. I'd sooner back the team taking fewer risks and the better QB all round.

It's not a pretty market for the overround but I had this at Evs, 2/1 and 3/1 the draw. Prices are 23/20, 8/5 and 11/4.

£20 if we fancy an overnight sweat. Never done one of these bets before, so would someone confirm "Turnovers" in this bet means "team that loses the ball", not "team that wins the ball"?

When does the game start tonight btw? I think the coverage is starting at midnight but need to make a decision as to whether to stay up and watch or not!

[sonour]

The world and his wife knows tonight's nfl opener will spank the overs on points. Both teams have injuries in defense, both teams will be passing the ball a lot, both teams have gunslinger quarterbacks, the wind will be low, Brady has a point to prove, Big Ben will be behind...

Despite knowing the bookies know that, I just can't get myself to back the unders.

What I do like is the Steelers being 23/20 to suffer the most turnovers with Hills. Patriots had the third best turnover differential (made - given away) in the league last year and the Steelers have a third string secondary out tonight. The Patriots' loss of their center is far less serious than the Steelers' loss of theirs.

If we fancy a gunfight, the ball will be in the air and open to challenge. I'd sooner back the team taking fewer risks and the better QB all round.

It's not a pretty market for the overround but I had this at Evs, 2/1 and 3/1 the draw. Prices are 23/20, 8/5 and 11/4.

£20 if we fancy an overnight sweat. Never done one of these bets before, so would someone confirm "Turnovers" in this bet means "team that loses the ball", not "team that wins the ball"?

Yes, turnovers is the team that loses the ball.

[Graham C]

When does the game start tonight btw? I think the coverage is starting at midnight but need to make a decision as to whether to stay up and watch or not!

1.30am I think

[TightEnd]

sorry been away all day

Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots Most Turnovers
23/20
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £43.00


something to check when we wake up


(its raining in Foxboro currently, if you wanted some caution about overs - which of course the game looks like it should be)

[TightEnd]

on sunday the Houston Texans host the Kansas City chiefs

the match features the two favourites in this market

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/regular-season/player-to-make-the-most-sacks

what's more these two teams have FAR better defensive lines than offensive lines

if anyone has been watching hard knocks this off-season Watt looks sensational, and their defensive line has been dominating their OL. When the Texans scrimmaged against the redskins earlier in the series, the redskins could hardly move the ball

having vince wilfork helps, brian cushing is a tough linebacker too, clowney is fit again and on the roster...

Watt got 21 sacks last season and is going up against Eric fisher, a former number 1 draft pick. when the two met in the last game these two played against each other in 2013, watt got three sacks. he's improved since, fisher hasn't

justin houston had 22 sacks last season, the nfl record is 22.5

quick as a cat, strong, he will give the houston tackles fits all day long too

there is no specific market for sacks in a game but there is a way to play this, indirectly

8-8-8 go 10/1 that there will be a safety in the game

i can't see either team running it easily out of their end of the field (arian foster is out, jamaal charles is better out wide and not between the tackles) and i could easily see a quarterback being sacked in the end zone, whereas in most NFL games that would be considered unlikely

of course this is speculative, and small stakes only, but you won't see many mismatches like watt and houston against these offensive lines too many times in this upcoming season

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-at-houston-texans/will-either-team-score-a-safety



just for interest there were 42 safeties in the NFL last season. 512 games. 10-1 isn't the worst price here...

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-points-by-score-type/2014/

[BorntoBubble]

sorry been away all day

Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots Most Turnovers
23/20
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £43.00


something to check when we wake up


(its raining in Foxboro currently, if you wanted some caution about overs - which of course the game looks like it should be)

BE - Neil I think, has tipped over 51 on BE's free write up.

Getting on this also or leaving?

[Tal]

sorry been away all day

Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots Most Turnovers
23/20
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £43.00


something to check when we wake up


(its raining in Foxboro currently, if you wanted some caution about overs - which of course the game looks like it should be)

BE - Neil I think, has tipped over 51 on BE's free write up.

Getting on this also or leaving?

I'll field this hospital pass.

The BE reasoning is always worth reading. I personally can't believe the game can finish under any total, but I also can't believe the bookies can set a line the punters will stop backing the overs with. It's the first game of the season, the only game on, featuring two huge name teams, two monster QBs, no wind, no secondaries, no running backs...

It's like the line for the season on Charlie Adam fouls. The bookies simply can stick the line as high as they like. How can betting the overs be right? But I can't bring myself to bet unders!




....but out of me and Neil, if you you were going to pick one guy's tips to follow...

[DungBeetle]

Sporting life like the unders.