Tips for Tikay

[Ant040689]

Bromley to win the Conference at 40/1 £20 ew 1/5 odds with bet365
Bromley to get promoted £20 at 33/1 with Sportingbet or 35/1 with 10bet.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/national-league/winner

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/national-league/promotion

They have won 6 on the trot and find themselves 4th in a very tight league. The bookies have them placed 11th in the ratings of teams, where I think this is bias towards a promoted team. Grimbsy by comparison are 2 points behind Bromley but are 7/4 to get promoted, granted they are the bigger team but probably shows what i mean about the potential value.

They have the top goalscorer in the league in Moses Emmanuel getting 12 in 13 games. Watched highlights of some of the games and it has been attractive. They have scored the most in the league which could bode well. They did have a dismal time of it before their run though and they could demise quite quickly when the run ends, but just in case they can maintain good form, even to a lesser extent, there appears to be value here.

Definitely do not attest to knowing much about the league nor Bromley. Also the league places are so tight from 12th to 4th it is a joke. I just think though after their last run of 6 games they may be over their breaking in period at the level, and is worth the punt at long odds. It also may help mentally that they won the Conference South the year before.

 

Surely 8/1 top 3 is awful if someone else is effectively 33/1 top 2?  Assume the latter isn't going to get voided.

33/1 top two?

Playoffs are two games worth to get promoted from 2nd-5th. Could get 2nd or 3rd and not be promoted but cash in on the 8/1. Fair play if the e/w isn't appealing, but the general value i feel is there.

"Effectively" first 2 as 2 are promoted.  It is all about value, if the 8/1 comes in and the 33/1 doesn't, it doesn't mean 8/1 was the value.

Fair enough. I think I have made a mistake here anyway realising it with your prompting as you are basically telling me this realisation that generally its silly to see a side up to win a league at 40/1 and for them to get promoted at 33/1. By comparison QPR are 40/1 to win the Championship and 9/1 to be promoted. So I am retracting the win part of the bet above to save some people leaving the promotion one up. Oddly though, I think there is value in the win bet anyway, just a lot lot more with the promotion bet.

I've had a mare.

[Ant040689]

Thought I could modify the initial bet but I cannot. If a mod can just delete the winning the league bet part please that would be grand. If not no worries.

[Doobs]

Bromley to win the Conference at 40/1 £20 ew 1/5 odds with bet365
Bromley to get promoted £20 at 33/1 with Sportingbet or 35/1 with 10bet.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/national-league/winner

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/national-league/promotion

They have won 6 on the trot and find themselves 4th in a very tight league. The bookies have them placed 11th in the ratings of teams, where I think this is bias towards a promoted team. Grimbsy by comparison are 2 points behind Bromley but are 7/4 to get promoted, granted they are the bigger team but probably shows what i mean about the potential value.

They have the top goalscorer in the league in Moses Emmanuel getting 12 in 13 games. Watched highlights of some of the games and it has been attractive. They have scored the most in the league which could bode well. They did have a dismal time of it before their run though and they could demise quite quickly when the run ends, but just in case they can maintain good form, even to a lesser extent, there appears to be value here.

Definitely do not attest to knowing much about the league nor Bromley. Also the league places are so tight from 12th to 4th it is a joke. I just think though after their last run of 6 games they may be over their breaking in period at the level, and is worth the punt at long odds. It also may help mentally that they won the Conference South the year before.

 

Surely 8/1 top 3 is awful if someone else is effectively 33/1 top 2?  Assume the latter isn't going to get voided.

33/1 top two?

Playoffs are two games worth to get promoted from 2nd-5th. Could get 2nd or 3rd and not be promoted but cash in on the 8/1. Fair play if the e/w isn't appealing, but the general value i feel is there.

"Effectively" first 2 as 2 are promoted.  It is all about value, if the 8/1 comes in and the 33/1 doesn't, it doesn't mean 8/1 was the value.

Fair enough. I think I have made a mistake here anyway realising it with your prompting as you are basically telling me this realisation that generally its silly to see a side up to win a league at 40/1 and for them to get promoted at 33/1. By comparison QPR are 40/1 to win the Championship and 9/1 to be promoted. So I am retracting the win part of the bet above to save some people leaving the promotion one up. Oddly though, I think there is value in the win bet anyway, just a lot lot more with the promotion bet.

I've had a mare.

I am sure the 40/1 is good, the place terms are bad and there is a good chance we get palped in the 33/1. 

[Ant040689]

Bromley to win the Conference at 40/1 £20 ew 1/5 odds with bet365
Bromley to get promoted £20 at 33/1 with Sportingbet or 35/1 with 10bet.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/national-league/winner

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/national-league/promotion

They have won 6 on the trot and find themselves 4th in a very tight league. The bookies have them placed 11th in the ratings of teams, where I think this is bias towards a promoted team. Grimbsy by comparison are 2 points behind Bromley but are 7/4 to get promoted, granted they are the bigger team but probably shows what i mean about the potential value.

They have the top goalscorer in the league in Moses Emmanuel getting 12 in 13 games. Watched highlights of some of the games and it has been attractive. They have scored the most in the league which could bode well. They did have a dismal time of it before their run though and they could demise quite quickly when the run ends, but just in case they can maintain good form, even to a lesser extent, there appears to be value here.

Definitely do not attest to knowing much about the league nor Bromley. Also the league places are so tight from 12th to 4th it is a joke. I just think though after their last run of 6 games they may be over their breaking in period at the level, and is worth the punt at long odds. It also may help mentally that they won the Conference South the year before.

 

Surely 8/1 top 3 is awful if someone else is effectively 33/1 top 2?  Assume the latter isn't going to get voided.

33/1 top two?

Playoffs are two games worth to get promoted from 2nd-5th. Could get 2nd or 3rd and not be promoted but cash in on the 8/1. Fair play if the e/w isn't appealing, but the general value i feel is there.

"Effectively" first 2 as 2 are promoted.  It is all about value, if the 8/1 comes in and the 33/1 doesn't, it doesn't mean 8/1 was the value.

Fair enough. I think I have made a mistake here anyway realising it with your prompting as you are basically telling me this realisation that generally its silly to see a side up to win a league at 40/1 and for them to get promoted at 33/1. By comparison QPR are 40/1 to win the Championship and 9/1 to be promoted. So I am retracting the win part of the bet above to save some people leaving the promotion one up. Oddly though, I think there is value in the win bet anyway, just a lot lot more with the promotion bet.

I've had a mare.

I am sure the 40/1 is good, the place terms are bad and there is a good chance we get palped in the 33/1. 

4 other bookies had similar bets available though, with the rest generally being in the twenties. I thought palps were restricted to really stale odds?

And 40/1 to win the league can't be good with promotion bets in the twenties?

It looks like people have had a bet off the back of the recommendation with 10bet, unibet and 888sport who were 30/1+ and the latter two are still 25/1.

[RickBFA]

Quick question rather than recommendation - are Cardiff really a 15/4 shot at Brighton?

I know Brighton have started really well but Cardiff are top 6 and still have a decent squad.

Looks value to me. Anyone got a view?

[kukushkin88]

I think NZ here -45 Evs Ladbrokes is very backable. Georgia on last warning for a yellow and they'll be rampant here second half. So many errors in the first half but this will go over imo.

[Tal]

Strictly Come Dancing: Week Two

We get to see how the ballroom dancers from last week cope with latin and vice versa. The path ahead becomes, hopefully, clearer.

Some interesting things on It Takes Two tonight. I have been looking at how tomorrow and Sunday might go. It's a bit of a finger in the air job but we can probably do this better than the bookies so whyever not. Format is combined judges' scores are ranked and given equal weight to the publc vote, two in the dance off and judges pick who walks (with Len getting the casting vote).  

So, what we want to establish is who the worst dancer this weekend will be that ends up doing the dance off.



These guys all look solid and decent enough. They will stay.

Here is the business end:



Carol is dancing with an umbrella. She won't be wowing the judges, else Pasha would be doing away with props. However, she will be at the bottom and getting votes from the BBC News crowd. She will avoid the dance off.

Jeremy is doing an American Smooth, which is absolutely horrible, because it's foxtrot timing (the hardest ballroom dance - no one else has to do a foxtrot week one/two) and has a lift to contend with. His frame is appalling and he won't score above 22, unless I've seen very misleading footage. But he will get votes. Having discussed it with betting counsel, 7/1 with Sky is certainly a standout price, with everyone else 11/2. I may be over thinking it (no good for Fred), but I'll give you my views as best as I can anyway.

Supporting my logic that the others get votes, Iwan is the favourite to walk on Sunday. He is doing a cha cha. Ola does well with the latin choreography with her weaker partners. She knows what the public vote for (ahem), so I expect the wardrobe department will have spent a below-average amount of time on Ola and Iwan's outfits. Flesh everywhere. He will commit completely and he will get everyone going in the crowd. The judges will marmalise it but the public will want him to stay.

Anthony is still dancing with his shoulder strapped up. That's going to make his Waltz pretty bad up top but he will have big strides I suspect and if his footwork is competent, he should get 25, which means he won't have to worry. If he had got 21 last week, I would have considered him here, but I can't see him low enough to go.

Jamelia has been dancing in trainers, which I hate. I can't be doing with watching Tristan either. But she should get enough in her cha cha to stick around, coupled with a below average level of support from the public.

The remaining two have salsas. Kirsty has only had 11 hours of training this week. She struggled massively with her nerves having reportedly aced in rehearsal. A party dance for a girly girl may suit. I have a mild concern that she and Brendan haven't quite hit it off but I am keeping an open mind on that one. She is surely going to get some support from the dads and lads and who doesn't want Brendan to do well? Pins on display with a high hemmed dress, surely? (If not, that either means she isn't playing along or Brendan doesn't think her legs are very good in Latin). She's in danger for sure, though, unless she steps up. She has a fabulous looking jump into Brendan, scissoring her legs around him and being shown upside down. That's hugely brave in her first dance. She could go either way, but it's most likely something in the mid to low twenties.

That leaves Ainsley. His training footage from Wednesday showed him having the same footwork as his tango: walking like you'd walk to the shops.  He will shimmy and party and be a barrel of laughs but he could face criticism if his hips don't move. I can see people being disappointed, having had high expectations. Bruno says he brought the house down with his facial expressions, Craig loves Natalie's choreography, Darcey comments on his bottom and Len gets booed for picking out he didn't lead on the balls of his plates of meat (inevitable gag) once.

So, whilst the likelihood is one of the bottom three goes, if they all dodge the dance off, Ainsley v Kirsty could be a very interesting fight. If either goes up against one of the people further up (say because they dance ok but are bottom in the public vote), I think they go.

Against each other, it's a toss up, dependant on whether Kirsty's nerves hold up. Having the same dance as a comparator will be easier for the judges to be technical.

At 12/1 and 12/1, both are good prices. I probably prefer the bet on Ainsley, as Kirsty seems more likely to be saved by the public, but I don't think we need to do more than back both to leave. Don't go nuts. It's a gamble when we haven't seen them dance properly in both disciplines.

That's my take anyway.

Fred has up to £10 on either or each through me (Staniel Jimmy and Betty Spotsbook) if he wants to play @ 12/1 on Kirsty and @ 12/1 on Ainsley. Let me know and it is confirmed.

Views as ever welcome on the thread or on here.

[Tal]

Oh - and this is important - no one tell Camel.

If he shakes his head any more at reading my posts about Strictly, he'll get an RSI.

[kukushkin88]

I think NZ here -45 Evs Ladbrokes is very backable. Georgia on last warning for a yellow and they'll be rampant here second half. So many errors in the first half but this will go over imo.

Very impressive from Georgia.

[tikay]

Oh - and this is important - no one tell Camel.

If he shakes his head any more at reading my posts about Strictly, he'll get an RSI.

He LOVES that stuff.

[TightEnd]

Strictly Come Dancing: Week Two

We get to see how the ballroom dancers from last week cope with latin and vice versa. The path ahead becomes, hopefully, clearer.

Some interesting things on It Takes Two tonight. I have been looking at how tomorrow and Sunday might go. It's a bit of a finger in the air job but we can probably do this better than the bookies so whyever not. Format is combined judges' scores are ranked and given equal weight to the publc vote, two in the dance off and judges pick who walks (with Len getting the casting vote). 

So, what we want to establish is who the worst dancer this weekend will be that ends up doing the dance off.



These guys all look solid and decent enough. They will stay.

Here is the business end:



Carol is dancing with an umbrella. She won't be wowing the judges, else Pasha would be doing away with props. However, she will be at the bottom and getting votes from the BBC News crowd. She will avoid the dance off.

Jeremy is doing an American Smooth, which is absolutely horrible, because it's foxtrot timing (the hardest ballroom dance - no one else has to do a foxtrot week one/two) and has a lift to contend with. His frame is appalling and he won't score above 22, unless I've seen very misleading footage. But he will get votes. Having discussed it with betting counsel, 7/1 with Sky is certainly a standout price, with everyone else 11/2. I may be over thinking it (no good for Fred), but I'll give you my views as best as I can anyway.

Supporting my logic that the others get votes, Iwan is the favourite to walk on Sunday. He is doing a cha cha. Ola does well with the latin choreography with her weaker partners. She knows what the public vote for (ahem), so I expect the wardrobe department will have spent a below-average amount of time on Ola and Iwan's outfits. Flesh everywhere. He will commit completely and he will get everyone going in the crowd. The judges will marmalise it but the public will want him to stay.

Anthony is still dancing with his shoulder strapped up. That's going to make his Waltz pretty bad up top but he will have big strides I suspect and if his footwork is competent, he should get 25, which means he won't have to worry. If he had got 21 last week, I would have considered him here, but I can't see him low enough to go.

Jamelia has been dancing in trainers, which I hate. I can't be doing with watching Tristan either. But she should get enough in her cha cha to stick around, coupled with a below average level of support from the public.

The remaining two have salsas. Kirsty has only had 11 hours of training this week. She struggled massively with her nerves having reportedly aced in rehearsal. A party dance for a girly girl may suit. I have a mild concern that she and Brendan haven't quite hit it off but I am keeping an open mind on that one. She is surely going to get some support from the dads and lads and who doesn't want Brendan to do well? Pins on display with a high hemmed dress, surely? (If not, that either means she isn't playing along or Brendan doesn't think her legs are very good in Latin). She's in danger for sure, though, unless she steps up. She has a fabulous looking jump into Brendan, scissoring her legs around him and being shown upside down. That's hugely brave in her first dance. She could go either way, but it's most likely something in the mid to low twenties.

That leaves Ainsley. His training footage from Wednesday showed him having the same footwork as his tango: walking like you'd walk to the shops.  He will shimmy and party and be a barrel of laughs but he could face criticism if his hips don't move. I can see people being disappointed, having had high expectations. Bruno says he brought the house down with his facial expressions, Craig loves Natalie's choreography, Darcey comments on his bottom and Len gets booed for picking out he didn't lead on the balls of his plates of meat (inevitable gag) once.

So, whilst the likelihood is one of the bottom three goes, if they all dodge the dance off, Ainsley v Kirsty could be a very interesting fight. If either goes up against one of the people further up (say because they dance ok but are bottom in the public vote), I think they go.

Against each other, it's a toss up, dependant on whether Kirsty's nerves hold up. Having the same dance as a comparator will be easier for the judges to be technical.

At 12/1 and 12/1, both are good prices. I probably prefer the bet on Ainsley, as Kirsty seems more likely to be saved by the public, but I don't think we need to do more than back both to leave. Don't go nuts. It's a gamble when we haven't seen them dance properly in both disciplines.

That's my take anyway.

Fred has up to £10 on either or each through me (Staniel Jimmy and Betty Spotsbook) if he wants to play @ 12/1 on Kirsty and @ 12/1 on Ainsley. Let me know and it is confirmed.

Views as ever welcome on the thread or on here.

we'll take these then

i for one would be voting for Ms Gallacher, no matter what. My bank of mobile telephony devices is ready.

[TightEnd]

anything for the Arc tomorrow?

what about the five RWC matches this weekend?

the football?

domestic racing?

the NFL Wembley game tomorrow?

ideas please....

[Eso Kral]

Am in a Billy Mountains shop atm who have Treve at 6/4 for the Arc to a max of £100, not sure if online also.

[TightEnd]

Dick Advocaat is understood to be considering quitting the club after Saturday's home game against West Ham, having become disillusioned with life on a limited budget.

good or bad news for our relegation bets?

Nigel Pearson would suit it, would he not, if it happened? would take absolutely no crap whatsover from old lag drinking pros. got rid of several non team players in his first three months at lcfc

[Tal]

Dick Advocaat is understood to be considering quitting the club after Saturday's home game against West Ham, having become disillusioned with life on a limited budget.

good or bad news for our relegation bets?

Nigel Pearson would suit it, would he not, if it happened? would take absolutely no crap whatsover from old lag drinking pros. got rid of several non team players in his first three months at lcfc

Weren't there a number of serious issues with players misbehaving while he was in charge?

BTW I also want Kirsty to stay in. She has potential but needs to conquer the nerves to show it.