Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

I've just watched the Strictly result show.

Had Iwan avoided the bottom two, Jamelia's performance in the dance off would have kept her in against most of her opponents. We won't know whether Kirsty was close to the drop but there we are.

Cliffs: our two bets on first elimination lost.

[Peter-27]

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/5173149/Match-Betting.html

I'd encourage anyone to take the 13/8 on cloud 9 to beat AHQ
Cloud 9 top the group and are playing amazing but market underrates them as they are an American team
They have a lot of experience

Stake size?

[Tal]

Packers win 17-3.

Well done, sicilian.

[the sicilian]

Packers win 17-3.

Well done, sicilian.

 

[Tal]

334 passing yards for Carson Palmer tonight is possibly better than expected against the ascetically stingy St Louis Rams.

[exstream]

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/5173149/Match-Betting.html

I'd encourage anyone to take the 13/8 on cloud 9 to beat AHQ
Cloud 9 top the group and are playing amazing but market underrates them as they are an American team
They have a lot of experience

Stake size?

Probably be limited but worth whatever you can get.
I was limited to £24 lol.
I wanted £100

[sonour]

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/5173149/Match-Betting.html

I'd encourage anyone to take the 13/8 on cloud 9 to beat AHQ
Cloud 9 top the group and are playing amazing but market underrates them as they are an American team
They have a lot of experience

Stake size?

Probably be limited but worth whatever you can get.
I was limited to £24 lol.
I wanted £100

Try the shops exstream. They'll take £100 off an unknown without referral.

[exstream]

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/5173149/Match-Betting.html

I'd encourage anyone to take the 13/8 on cloud 9 to beat AHQ
Cloud 9 top the group and are playing amazing but market underrates them as they are an American team
They have a lot of experience

Stake size?

Probably be limited but worth whatever you can get.
I was limited to £24 lol.
I wanted £100

Try the shops exstream. They'll take £100 off an unknown without referral.

Surprised at that assuming they won't have it on the normal screens and you'd have to ask for the odds?

[TightEnd]

Detroit are at Seattle tonight on MNF

I have spent some time looking into the implications of Marshawn Lynch's absence with an injured hamstring.

He had 5 carries last week against the Bears before leaving the game. Rookie Thomas Rawls then received the bulk of the work, with 16 carries for 104 yards with Fred Jackson getting a couple of carries too

Seattle are 9 point favourites for the game, and its a miserable place for away teams to play particularly in primetime witgh crowd noise, tough atmosphere etc

this is especially the case for struggling teams, detroit are 0-3, suffering with very predictable play-calling. One place on defence that they struggle is in run defense. In their three games so far this season they've conceded 112 yards on the ground on average and 5 rushing touchdowns

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=RUSHING&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2015&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS_PER_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1

this is particularly the case on the perimeter of the defense where they have the exotically named Ziggy Ansah at end, who tends to over-pursue in his haste to get sacks and leaves his lane open. They are comparatively strong through the middle where Haloti Ngata came across from the Ravens and is a noted run stopper

So all this got me thinking

Lynch is out
A rookie is the lead back, and the offensive line minus Max Unger is not as solid as it was in 2013-14. that rookie has 18 career carries
Seattle aren't firing in the passing game..no real connection between Graham and Wilson yet. No particular game breaker at wide receiver, well not until Tyler Lockett breaks the starting line up anyway as well as firing in kick off returns for long gains

So it appears logical to me that we can expect Russell Wilson rushing to be a reasonable part of the offense

- Wilson has over 2000 career rushing yards, at 6ypc over 3 seasons and three games

- So far this year in those three games Wilson has 137 yards on 24 rushing attempts

- If you use those 24 attempts as a "run rate" and pro-rata for a 16 game season he is on course for 125-130 rushes

- His rushing attempts in his three seasons to date are 84,98 and last year 118

- Tentatively, he's running a bit more every year
 
So, Lynch is out, Detroit have issues in run defense on the edge and Wilson's rushing yards quotes are +/- 37.5

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-seattle-seahawks/total-rushing-yds-russell-wilson

At career rushing averages in yards per attempt we'd only need him to rush 6-7 times in the game to hit this

seems reasonable to me that this quote is on the low side


for something a bit less conservative, rawls is 6/1 first TD, Wilson 18/1. Some markets still quote Lynch

[nuros]

Nice write up as per tighty, gl!

[Tal]

Great analysis, Tighty.

Best thing I have read on Wilson was this:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2015/film-room-russell-wilsons-mobility

Not all of it strictly relevant to the bet in hand, but there's an interesting explanation of how a lot of what Wilson does is built into the offensive system and that means this is not as high a variance bet as some: the play callers in Seattle want him running and he can do it against any team.

[sonour]

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/5173149/Match-Betting.html

I'd encourage anyone to take the 13/8 on cloud 9 to beat AHQ
Cloud 9 top the group and are playing amazing but market underrates them as they are an American team
They have a lot of experience

Stake size?

Probably be limited but worth whatever you can get.
I was limited to £24 lol.
I wanted £100

Try the shops exstream. They'll take £100 off an unknown without referral.

Surprised at that assuming they won't have it on the normal screens and you'd have to ask for the odds?

It takes them forever to find the price, but when they do no further problems. I had to show one guy the odds on my iPad but then he took the bet.

[tikay]

Detroit are at Seattle tonight on MNF

I have spent some time looking into the implications of Marshawn Lynch's absence with an injured hamstring.

He had 5 carries last week against the Bears before leaving the game. Rookie Thomas Rawls then received the bulk of the work, with 16 carries for 104 yards with Fred Jackson getting a couple of carries too

Seattle are 9 point favourites for the game, and its a miserable place for away teams to play particularly in primetime witgh crowd noise, tough atmosphere etc

this is especially the case for struggling teams, detroit are 0-3, suffering with very predictable play-calling. One place on defence that they struggle is in run defense. In their three games so far this season they've conceded 112 yards on the ground on average and 5 rushing touchdowns

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=RUSHING&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2015&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS_PER_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1

this is particularly the case on the perimeter of the defense where they have the exotically named Ziggy Ansah at end, who tends to over-pursue in his haste to get sacks and leaves his lane open. They are comparatively strong through the middle where Haloti Ngata came across from the Ravens and is a noted run stopper

So all this got me thinking

Lynch is out
A rookie is the lead back, and the offensive line minus Max Unger is not as solid as it was in 2013-14. that rookie has 18 career carries
Seattle aren't firing in the passing game..no real connection between Graham and Wilson yet. No particular game breaker at wide receiver, well not until Tyler Lockett breaks the starting line up anyway as well as firing in kick off returns for long gains

So it appears logical to me that we can expect Russell Wilson rushing to be a reasonable part of the offense

- Wilson has over 2000 career rushing yards, at 6ypc over 3 seasons and three games

- So far this year in those three games Wilson has 137 yards on 24 rushing attempts

- If you use those 24 attempts as a "run rate" and pro-rata for a 16 game season he is on course for 125-130 rushes

- His rushing attempts in his three seasons to date are 84,98 and last year 118

- Tentatively, he's running a bit more every year
 
So, Lynch is out, Detroit have issues in run defense on the edge and Wilson's rushing yards quotes are +/- 37.5

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-seattle-seahawks/total-rushing-yds-russell-wilson

At career rushing averages in yards per attempt we'd only need him to rush 6-7 times in the game to hit this

seems reasonable to me that this quote is on the low side


for something a bit less conservative, rawls is 6/1 first TD, Wilson 18/1. Some markets still quote Lynch

Can we get on please, Tighty?

[TightEnd]

ladbrokes will only lay us to win £15 on NFL subs, but hopefully better than nothing

Over Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks Total Rushing Yds - Russell Wilson
10/11
Total Stake: £16.50
Potential Returns: £31.50

[Peter-27]

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/5173149/Match-Betting.html

I'd encourage anyone to take the 13/8 on cloud 9 to beat AHQ
Cloud 9 top the group and are playing amazing but market underrates them as they are an American team
They have a lot of experience

Stake size?

Probably be limited but worth whatever you can get.
I was limited to £24 lol.
I wanted £100

Referred to a trader, limited to £24.62.