Detroit are at Seattle tonight on MNF
I have spent some time looking into the implications of Marshawn Lynch's absence with an injured hamstring.
He had 5 carries last week against the Bears before leaving the game. Rookie Thomas Rawls then received the bulk of the work, with 16 carries for 104 yards with Fred Jackson getting a couple of carries too
Seattle are 9 point favourites for the game, and its a miserable place for away teams to play particularly in primetime witgh crowd noise, tough atmosphere etc
this is especially the case for struggling teams, detroit are 0-3, suffering with very predictable play-calling. One place on defence that they struggle is in run defense. In their three games so far this season they've conceded 112 yards on the ground on average and 5 rushing touchdowns
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=RUSHING&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2015&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS_PER_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1this is particularly the case on the perimeter of the defense where they have the exotically named Ziggy Ansah at end, who tends to over-pursue in his haste to get sacks and leaves his lane open. They are comparatively strong through the middle where Haloti Ngata came across from the Ravens and is a noted run stopper
So all this got me thinking
Lynch is out
A rookie is the lead back, and the offensive line minus Max Unger is not as solid as it was in 2013-14. that rookie has 18 career carries
Seattle aren't firing in the passing game..no real connection between Graham and Wilson yet. No particular game breaker at wide receiver, well not until Tyler Lockett breaks the starting line up anyway as well as firing in kick off returns for long gains
So it appears logical to me that we can expect Russell Wilson rushing to be a reasonable part of the offense
- Wilson has over 2000 career rushing yards, at 6ypc over 3 seasons and three games
- So far this year in those three games Wilson has 137 yards on 24 rushing attempts
- If you use those 24 attempts as a "run rate" and pro-rata for a 16 game season he is on course for 125-130 rushes
- His rushing attempts in his three seasons to date are 84,98 and last year 118
- Tentatively, he's running a bit more every year
So, Lynch is out, Detroit have issues in run defense on the edge and Wilson's rushing yards quotes are +/- 37.5
http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-seattle-seahawks/total-rushing-yds-russell-wilsonAt career rushing averages in yards per attempt we'd only need him to rush 6-7 times in the game to hit this
seems reasonable to me that this quote is on the low side
for something a bit less conservative, rawls is 6/1 first TD, Wilson 18/1. Some markets still quote Lynch