Tips for Tikay

[Peter-27]

Okay, as promised, F1 bets:

Race Winner - Not sure on this one. The prices on both Lewis (10/9, Betunfair) and Nico (11/8, Paddy, Lads, Hills) are value. Lewis has the momentum in races, but Nico seems quicker here; it could really go either way. I guess, as it's a coinflip situation, we should bet on Nico with the better price. Suggest £20. However, if you disagree, Lewis is not a bad bet either! My instinct is actually telling me Lewis, but I'm going to go for Nico per the reasoning above.

Podium Finish - Valtteri Bottas @ 7/5 with Blose, or 13/10 with Betunfair. Williams should be quicker than Ferrari in the race here, suggest £20.

Points Finish - Carlos Sainz @ 7/2 with the Betunfair. It looks like he will be racing today after his massive crash yesterday, but if not, the bet should be voided anyway. He does have a quick car underneath him, and will be there or there abouts at the end of the race. Suggest £20.

Top Six Finish - Felipe Massa @ 3/1 with Paddy/Lads/Choral/Betunfair. Qualified poorly, but the Williams has great speed. Getting to the top eight shouldn't be any issue at all. Top six (getting by the Force India's) will be a little trickier, but 3/1 is a fantastic price. Suggest £20.

Group C (HUL/PER/GRO/VER) - Sergio Perez @ 15/8 with 365. This market is really just between Nico & Sergio under normal circumstances. Why Sergio is nearly 2/1 is baffling to me. They start next to each other on the grid, it should be Nico 5/6, Sergio 6/5, or something like that. Suggest £30.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/russian-grand-prix/group-c

Group D (NAS/BUT/ALO/ERI) - Felipe Nasr @ 9/4 with Hills. This price is great, don't really understand why it's so big. Suggest £30.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/russian-grand-prix/group-d

Leader After Lap One - Valtteri Bottas @ 8/1 with Hills and Lads. Price is too high given that the Mercedes boys have issues getting off the line. Suggest £10.

Good luck all

[TightEnd]

Big day for our 2000 Guineas AP pick, with Emotionless v Air Force Blue at Newmarket. If either wins impressively, they'll go really short for the big'un.

Airforceblue won. thoughts now?

[TightEnd]

So, Baltimore take their battered Offence up against one of the leagues worst defences this week as they face the Cleveland Browns.

The Ravens offence is missing Steve Smith very Snr and the fantastically named Crockett Gilmour, meaning Kamar Aiken and Maxx Williams are likely to be the passing options on display.

Cleveland have conceded a massive average of 141 yards per game to the rush, giving up 4.8 yards per carry.

Step up Justin Forsett, who finally got his season going last week with 150 yards on 27 carries against Pittsburgh last week.

While the Browns MAY stack the box against him, they have pproven so far this season that they are completely incapable of stopping the run, and the Ravens are a team with very few passing options, so Forsett is going to see ALOT of attempts this week.

Ladbrokes have set the line at 85.5 yards for Forsett, with Paddy power setting it at 91.5, I recommend £20 on OVER if I may.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens Total Rushing Yds - Justin Forsett over 88.5
10/11
Total Stake: £11.00
Potential Returns: £21.00

restricted

[TightEnd]

It's difficult to get any sort of read on this weekend given the lack of meaningful running. Got a couple of bets to suggest though:

Podium Finish - Valtteri Bottas @ 7/2 with SkyeBet and Betfair. The high power/low drag combination of the Williams car should really suit this circuit. Suggest £20.

Top Six Finish - Sergio Perez @ 7/2 with BetVictor. Car looks good on track in terms of the way it's handling. Low temperatures are helping. Suggest £20.

i take it these are not valid anymroe, the later bets supercede these?

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-cincinnati-bengals/point-spread

Now, I was led to believe that when 2 evenly matched NFL teams meet then the home team are 3 point faves

So we have the 4-0 Bengals at home to the 0-2 OTR Seahawks who have Marshawn lynch out and the line is creeping up to 3.5 as I type. Didn't think Seattle were that convincing last week at home to the winless lions and they are notoriously weaker OTR. I know we have a Bengals fan amongst us, so I am surprised that he hasn't bigged them up for this game. Maybe I am missing something.

This could go off longer than -3.5 so the -3 with Billys @ 10/11 should be taken soon. Recc £22

it has gone -3.5 i am afraid, -3 5/6 is best

[Peter-27]

It's difficult to get any sort of read on this weekend given the lack of meaningful running. Got a couple of bets to suggest though:

Podium Finish - Valtteri Bottas @ 7/2 with SkyeBet and Betfair. The high power/low drag combination of the Williams car should really suit this circuit. Suggest £20.

Top Six Finish - Sergio Perez @ 7/2 with BetVictor. Car looks good on track in terms of the way it's handling. Low temperatures are helping. Suggest £20.

i take it these are not valid anymroe, the later bets supercede these?

Correct

[TightEnd]

Okay, as promised, F1 bets:

Race Winner - Not sure on this one. The prices on both Lewis (10/9, Betunfair) and Nico (11/8, Paddy, Lads, Hills) are value. Lewis has the momentum in races, but Nico seems quicker here; it could really go either way. I guess, as it's a coinflip situation, we should bet on Nico with the better price. Suggest £20. However, if you disagree, Lewis is not a bad bet either! My instinct is actually telling me Lewis, but I'm going to go for Nico per the reasoning above.

Podium Finish - Valtteri Bottas @ 7/5 with Blose, or 13/10 with Betunfair. Williams should be quicker than Ferrari in the race here, suggest £20.

Points Finish - Carlos Sainz @ 7/2 with the Betunfair. It looks like he will be racing today after his massive crash yesterday, but if not, the bet should be voided anyway. He does have a quick car underneath him, and will be there or there abouts at the end of the race. Suggest £20.

Top Six Finish - Felipe Massa @ 3/1 with Paddy/Lads/Choral/Betunfair. Qualified poorly, but the Williams has great speed. Getting to the top eight shouldn't be any issue at all. Top six (getting by the Force India's) will be a little trickier, but 3/1 is a fantastic price. Suggest £20.

Group C (HUL/PER/GRO/VER) - Sergio Perez @ 15/8 with 365. This market is really just between Nico & Sergio under normal circumstances. Why Sergio is nearly 2/1 is baffling to me. They start next to each other on the grid, it should be Nico 5/6, Sergio 6/5, or something like that. Suggest £30.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/russian-grand-prix/group-c

Group D (NAS/BUT/ALO/ERI) - Felipe Nasr @ 9/4 with Hills. This price is great, don't really understand why it's so big. Suggest £30.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/russian-grand-prix/group-d

Leader After Lap One - Valtteri Bottas @ 8/1 with Hills and Lads. Price is too high given that the Mercedes boys have issues getting off the line. Suggest £10.

Good luck all

William Hill
nico Rosberg (Mer) Russian Grand Prix Winner
11/8
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £47.60

Felipe Massa (Wil) Russian Grand Prix Top 6 Finish
3/1
Total Stake: £16.67
Potential Returns: £66.68

Valtteri Bottas (Wil) Russian Grand Prix Leader after 1st Lap
8/1
Total Stake: £6.25
Potential Returns: £56.25



i can't do the bets with bwin, bet365, betfair and the nasr price has gone to 15/8

[Peter-27]

Okay, as promised, F1 bets:

Race Winner - Not sure on this one. The prices on both Lewis (10/9, Betunfair) and Nico (11/8, Paddy, Lads, Hills) are value. Lewis has the momentum in races, but Nico seems quicker here; it could really go either way. I guess, as it's a coinflip situation, we should bet on Nico with the better price. Suggest £20. However, if you disagree, Lewis is not a bad bet either! My instinct is actually telling me Lewis, but I'm going to go for Nico per the reasoning above.

Podium Finish - Valtteri Bottas @ 7/5 with Blose, or 13/10 with Betunfair. Williams should be quicker than Ferrari in the race here, suggest £20.

Points Finish - Carlos Sainz @ 7/2 with the Betunfair. It looks like he will be racing today after his massive crash yesterday, but if not, the bet should be voided anyway. He does have a quick car underneath him, and will be there or there abouts at the end of the race. Suggest £20.

Top Six Finish - Felipe Massa @ 3/1 with Paddy/Lads/Choral/Betunfair. Qualified poorly, but the Williams has great speed. Getting to the top eight shouldn't be any issue at all. Top six (getting by the Force India's) will be a little trickier, but 3/1 is a fantastic price. Suggest £20.

Group C (HUL/PER/GRO/VER) - Sergio Perez @ 15/8 with 365. This market is really just between Nico & Sergio under normal circumstances. Why Sergio is nearly 2/1 is baffling to me. They start next to each other on the grid, it should be Nico 5/6, Sergio 6/5, or something like that. Suggest £30.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/russian-grand-prix/group-c

Group D (NAS/BUT/ALO/ERI) - Felipe Nasr @ 9/4 with Hills. This price is great, don't really understand why it's so big. Suggest £30.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/russian-grand-prix/group-d

Leader After Lap One - Valtteri Bottas @ 8/1 with Hills and Lads. Price is too high given that the Mercedes boys have issues getting off the line. Suggest £10.

Good luck all

William Hill
nico Rosberg (Mer) Russian Grand Prix Winner
11/8
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £47.60

Felipe Massa (Wil) Russian Grand Prix Top 6 Finish
3/1
Total Stake: £16.67
Potential Returns: £66.68

Valtteri Bottas (Wil) Russian Grand Prix Leader after 1st Lap
8/1
Total Stake: £6.25
Potential Returns: £56.25



i can't do the bets with bwin, bet365, betfair and the nasr price has gone to 15/8

15/8 on Nasr is fine.

When I've said betfair, sometimes I mean the exchange. You're not limited on there, right? Didn't realise you could be to be honest?

Sorry, I'll make sure I specify between the exchange and sportsbook next time.

[TightEnd]

Felipe Nasr (Sau) Russian Grand Prix Group D
15/8
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £57.60

(NAS/BUT/ALO/ERI)

[exstream]

Somehow Origen lost to lgd who had nothing to play for and were already eliminated ...

[Chompy]

Big day for our 2000 Guineas AP pick, with Emotionless v Air Force Blue at Newmarket. If either wins impressively, they'll go really short for the big'un.

Airforceblue won. thoughts now?

We're stuffed.

Something not right with Emotionless it looked to me, so knowing Godolphin we'll probably see him next in a conditions race at Nottingham next autumn.

[Tal]

I like the unders in the total points line in Buffalo @ Tennessee (the game no one is watching).

Buffalo has a serious defense, hasn't allowed more than 105 rushing yards this season in a game and has found a gem in third round rookie cornerback Ronald Darby as a great partner to Stephon Gilmore to stop receivers.

The team has been plagued by penalty flags - think Martin Johnson's managed England rugby team or Charlie Adam in 40/60 balls - and Rex Ryan, having asked the defense to "get nasty" at the start of the season has had to try to to do his best Daenerys impression and tame his dragons:



It's been a big problem for the team this season and giving free yards and downs to a rookie quarterback is criminal today. Twice as many calls for unnecessary roughness as the next highest team and 58 total penalties this season. I expect better discipline today - the defense idolises Ryan and it seems to be working well as a partnership - and a controlled performance.

The problem for Buffalo is on the other side of the ball. The first and second choice running backs (McCoy and Williams) are out, so the guy we use for goal line rhinocerosery, Anthony "Boobie" Dixon is the starting halfback, although supported by new pickup, Dan Herron from the Colts. Lead wide receiver Sammy Watkins is expected to be out. The quarterback has been performing above expectations but that isn't difficult.

The total points line opened at 44.5 before LeSean McCoy was ruled out and promptly moved to 42 when the news broke.

"Buffalo has played 21 unders in its last 36 games including 10 of its last 16 in games with a line between +3 and -3."
     - Athlon Sports

Not a massive stat but I am convinced the penalties reducing will pressure the Titans more tonight. The Bills know what they have to do to win this pickem.

10/11 under 42 is available with Billy Mountain. Recommend £22.

[TightEnd]

Under 42 Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans Total Points
10/11
Total Stake: £22.00
Potential Returns: £42.02

[TightEnd]

Emotionless found to be injured after Dewhurst flop http://bit.ly/1hxVANj 

[TightEnd]

We owe Kimi one, force india spread bet and a couple of bets today helped by that last lap shunt