Tips for Tikay

[nirvana]

Has TfT left the building ?

[TightEnd]

it is expected to be wet throughout the austin gp weekend

should a safety car be shorter than 8/11?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/safety-car

in this weather, under 15 finishers at 2/1?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/number-of-classified-drivers-3-way

it is also expected to be very humid. red bull have an upgrade available, but to take it would mean more grid penalties. do we think they'll take it? if so will it make any difference? (i am thinking back to red bull in humid singapore, going well)

can we oppose mercedes on the grounds of all the various uncertainties this weekend? for example vettel goes well in the wet. or is the mercedes unopposable this weekend?

Vettel to take fifth engine and 10-place grid penalty this weekend. Was always planned, he said

[Peter-27]

Second the Stoke bet.

I have no idea what statistical anomaly has Stoke so regularly priced so high at home.

Earlier in the season you couldn't back them but they are in good form now and should be < evens at home to anyone, except the big 3 and maybe ManU too.

Why? Do you make Stoke the 4th or fifth best team in th epl? That is what that redic statement implies and I am a Stoke fan!  Stoke shouldn't be odds on to many teams outside the bottom 8 teams at home.  Even against most of them they should, only be a very small shade of odds on.

Watford are however one of those teams and the 23/20 is a decent bet IMO.

Funny you should say this, I do think Stoke will finish 4th this year 

Yep, maybe I'm crazy 

it is expected to be wet throughout the austin gp weekend

should a safety car be shorter than 8/11?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/safety-car

in this weather, under 15 finishers at 2/1?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/number-of-classified-drivers-3-way

it is also expected to be very humid. red bull have an upgrade available, but to take it would mean more grid penalties. do we think they'll take it? if so will it make any difference? (i am thinking back to red bull in humid singapore, going well)

can we oppose mercedes on the grounds of all the various uncertainties this weekend? for example vettel goes well in the wet. or is the mercedes unopposable this weekend?

Vettel to take fifth engine and 10-place grid penalty this weekend. Was always planned, he said

F1 bets coming later. The F1 weather forecast currently says that ONE FOOT of rain is expected over Friday/Saturday - surely this can't be right?! 

[rfgqqabc]

i can't help much, but any views on the Rgby world cup semi finals?

what about the first cheltenham meeting of the season on saturday?
[/quote

If pocock is out then I would look closely at backing argentina at 5 to 2. I am not sure that I could back south africa to beat nz as they seem very one dimensional. If the weather is iffy then there may be a bet for low points in the sa v nz game.

Mostly based off their kicking game? I thought they looked really good vs Wales, seemed to come in with a plan and execute it well. I feel like they might be underbacked because of the All Black reputation and the disaster vs Japan. I wanted to watch the NZ vs France game before I decided but from the little bits I've seen I don't think I'll be having a bet. I like the unders angle depending on the weather.

[swinebag22]

Second the Stoke bet.

I have no idea what statistical anomaly has Stoke so regularly priced so high at home.

Earlier in the season you couldn't back them but they are in good form now and should be < evens at home to anyone, except the big 3 and maybe ManU too.

Why? Do you make Stoke the 4th or fifth best team in th epl? That is what that redic statement implies and I am a Stoke fan!  Stoke shouldn't be odds on to many teams outside the bottom 8 teams at home.  Even against most of them they should, only be a very small shade of odds on.

Watford are however one of those teams and the 23/20 is a decent bet IMO.

Sorry, but if my ridiculous statement was meant to imply anything, it was that stoke are the 4th or 5th best team AT HOME in the EPL.

I suppose you could argue (why not) that it is the same thing but if you want to break the point down I would argue that stoke score a bigger proprtion of points at home compared to most other teams. This may be an irrelevant stat, but even you admit that stoke are incorrectly priced far too often at home. This is in the most bet in league in the world where the prices are always meant to be correct.

Not disagreeing with you about the "correct price" part of my post as you are more versed in this than I am but when I see stoke at home odds against, I generally pull the trigger.

[kukushkin88]

I really don't think backing SF is a good idea, look at the teams Seattle have lost to, they are all a class apart from the 9'ers. Seattle to cover, even at -6.5 looks rock solid to me.

[kukushkin88]

Second the Stoke bet.

I have no idea what statistical anomaly has Stoke so regularly priced so high at home.

Earlier in the season you couldn't back them but they are in good form now and should be < evens at home to anyone, except the big 3 and maybe ManU too.

Why? Do you make Stoke the 4th or fifth best team in th epl? That is what that redic statement implies and I am a Stoke fan!  Stoke shouldn't be odds on to many teams outside the bottom 8 teams at home.  Even against most of them they should, only be a very small shade of odds on.

Watford are however one of those teams and the 23/20 is a decent bet IMO.

Sorry, but if my ridiculous statement was meant to imply anything, it was that stoke are the 4th or 5th best team AT HOME in the EPL.

I suppose you could argue (why not) that it is the same thing but if you want to break the point down I would argue that stoke score a bigger proprtion of points at home compared to most other teams. This may be an irrelevant stat, but even you admit that stoke are incorrectly priced far too often at home. This is in the most bet in league in the world where the prices are always meant to be correct.

Not disagreeing with you about the "correct price" part of my post as you are more versed in this than I am but when I see stoke at home odds against, I generally pull the trigger.

Backing Stoke every time they are odds against at home is just a punt, there's no edge.

[swinebag22]

Second the Stoke bet.

I have no idea what statistical anomaly has Stoke so regularly priced so high at home.

Earlier in the season you couldn't back them but they are in good form now and should be < evens at home to anyone, except the big 3 and maybe ManU too.

Why? Do you make Stoke the 4th or fifth best team in th epl? That is what that redic statement implies and I am a Stoke fan!  Stoke shouldn't be odds on to many teams outside the bottom 8 teams at home.  Even against most of them they should, only be a very small shade of odds on.

Watford are however one of those teams and the 23/20 is a decent bet IMO.

Sorry, but if my ridiculous statement was meant to imply anything, it was that stoke are the 4th or 5th best team AT HOME in the EPL.

I suppose you could argue (why not) that it is the same thing but if you want to break the point down I would argue that stoke score a bigger proprtion of points at home compared to most other teams. This may be an irrelevant stat, but even you admit that stoke are incorrectly priced far too often at home. This is in the most bet in league in the world where the prices are always meant to be correct.

Not disagreeing with you about the "correct price" part of my post as you are more versed in this than I am but when I see stoke at home odds against, I generally pull the trigger.

Backing Stoke every time they are odds against at home is just a punt, there's no edge.

Of course just blindly backing based on price is a mistake and the last part of my post could have been worded better.

I just remember last season, the number of times stoke were odds against at home against very ordinary sides. They have had a poor start to the season this year but are now looking a pretty tough side again. Will be interesting to see how they are priced up for other games.

[arbboy]

Second the Stoke bet.

I have no idea what statistical anomaly has Stoke so regularly priced so high at home.

Earlier in the season you couldn't back them but they are in good form now and should be < evens at home to anyone, except the big 3 and maybe ManU too.

Why? Do you make Stoke the 4th or fifth best team in th epl? That is what that redic statement implies and I am a Stoke fan!  Stoke shouldn't be odds on to many teams outside the bottom 8 teams at home.  Even against most of them they should, only be a very small shade of odds on.

Watford are however one of those teams and the 23/20 is a decent bet IMO.

Sorry, but if my ridiculous statement was meant to imply anything, it was that stoke are the 4th or 5th best team AT HOME in the EPL.

I suppose you could argue (why not) that it is the same thing but if you want to break the point down I would argue that stoke score a bigger proprtion of points at home compared to most other teams. This may be an irrelevant stat, but even you admit that stoke are incorrectly priced far too often at home. This is in the most bet in league in the world where the prices are always meant to be correct.

Not disagreeing with you about the "correct price" part of my post as you are more versed in this than I am but when I see stoke at home odds against, I generally pull the trigger.

Backing Stoke every time they are odds against at home is just a punt, there's no edge.

Of course just blindly backing based on price is a mistake and the last part of my post could have been worded better.

I just remember last season, the number of times stoke were odds against at home against very ordinary sides. They have had a poor start to the season this year but are now looking a pretty tough side again. Will be interesting to see how they are priced up for other games.

They haven't had a poor start to the season.  They have 12 points from 9 games (totally in line with expectations).  In their first 5 games they played 3 of the big 5 in the outright betting for the epl, lost 1-0 at home to WBA when down to 9 men after 20 minutes yet still dominated the game and should have got a point tbh having watched the game.  We are being results orientated to say Stoke have had a poor start to the season imo at any stage.  If they had 11 men on the pitch against wba and won they would currently be in the top 6.

[swinebag22]

Second the Stoke bet.

I have no idea what statistical anomaly has Stoke so regularly priced so high at home.

Earlier in the season you couldn't back them but they are in good form now and should be < evens at home to anyone, except the big 3 and maybe ManU too.

Why? Do you make Stoke the 4th or fifth best team in th epl? That is what that redic statement implies and I am a Stoke fan!  Stoke shouldn't be odds on to many teams outside the bottom 8 teams at home.  Even against most of them they should, only be a very small shade of odds on.

Watford are however one of those teams and the 23/20 is a decent bet IMO.

Sorry, but if my ridiculous statement was meant to imply anything, it was that stoke are the 4th or 5th best team AT HOME in the EPL.

I suppose you could argue (why not) that it is the same thing but if you want to break the point down I would argue that stoke score a bigger proprtion of points at home compared to most other teams. This may be an irrelevant stat, but even you admit that stoke are incorrectly priced far too often at home. This is in the most bet in league in the world where the prices are always meant to be correct.

Not disagreeing with you about the "correct price" part of my post as you are more versed in this than I am but when I see stoke at home odds against, I generally pull the trigger.

Backing Stoke every time they are odds against at home is just a punt, there's no edge.

Of course just blindly backing based on price is a mistake and the last part of my post could have been worded better.

I just remember last season, the number of times stoke were odds against at home against very ordinary sides. They have had a poor start to the season this year but are now looking a pretty tough side again. Will be interesting to see how they are priced up for other games.

They haven't had a poor start to the season.  They have 12 points from 9 games (totally in line with expectations).  In their first 5 games they played 3 of the big 5 in the outright betting for the epl, lost 1-0 at home to WBA when down to 9 men after 20 minutes yet still dominated the game and should have got a point tbh having watched the game.  We are being results orientated to say Stoke have had a poor start to the season imo at any stage.  If they had 11 men on the pitch against wba and won they would currently be in the top 6.

So it isn't a completely "ridiculous statement" to imply Stoke are the 4th or 5th best team in the EPL then

Would "marginally wrong" be kinder? 😃

[arbboy]

Second the Stoke bet.

I have no idea what statistical anomaly has Stoke so regularly priced so high at home.

Earlier in the season you couldn't back them but they are in good form now and should be < evens at home to anyone, except the big 3 and maybe ManU too.

Why? Do you make Stoke the 4th or fifth best team in th epl? That is what that redic statement implies and I am a Stoke fan!  Stoke shouldn't be odds on to many teams outside the bottom 8 teams at home.  Even against most of them they should, only be a very small shade of odds on.

Watford are however one of those teams and the 23/20 is a decent bet IMO.

Sorry, but if my ridiculous statement was meant to imply anything, it was that stoke are the 4th or 5th best team AT HOME in the EPL.

I suppose you could argue (why not) that it is the same thing but if you want to break the point down I would argue that stoke score a bigger proprtion of points at home compared to most other teams. This may be an irrelevant stat, but even you admit that stoke are incorrectly priced far too often at home. This is in the most bet in league in the world where the prices are always meant to be correct.

Not disagreeing with you about the "correct price" part of my post as you are more versed in this than I am but when I see stoke at home odds against, I generally pull the trigger.

Backing Stoke every time they are odds against at home is just a punt, there's no edge.

Of course just blindly backing based on price is a mistake and the last part of my post could have been worded better.

I just remember last season, the number of times stoke were odds against at home against very ordinary sides. They have had a poor start to the season this year but are now looking a pretty tough side again. Will be interesting to see how they are priced up for other games.

They haven't had a poor start to the season.  They have 12 points from 9 games (totally in line with expectations).  In their first 5 games they played 3 of the big 5 in the outright betting for the epl, lost 1-0 at home to WBA when down to 9 men after 20 minutes yet still dominated the game and should have got a point tbh having watched the game.  We are being results orientated to say Stoke have had a poor start to the season imo at any stage.  If they had 11 men on the pitch against wba and won they would currently be in the top 6.

So it isn't a completely "ridiculous statement" to imply Stoke are the 4th or 5th best team in the EPL then

Would "marginally wrong" be kinder? 😃

   Yes if you put it like that.  I would prefer to think of it that Stoke are more likely to finish bottom than finish in the top 5 at the start of any given EPL season.

As for the home/away points 'myth' here is last year's league table.  Previous season's points % distribution was pretty similar as well.

http://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/premier-league/2014-15/table.html#$$nwn0pu&&854e0Hj2EeWYxwrBiYTF8Q$$

Stoke got 33 points at home 21 away.  Totally in line with expectations for a normal points distribution % wise for any team between home/away games.  Not trying to have a pop at you btw just trying to dispel certain myths about Stoke which are not that true.

[BorntoBubble]

Need tips for tomorrow Doncaster race meet.

Need to impress my staff at work!! Help

[swinebag22]

I looked at the table last year as well arb. I only worked out the top 10 but most teams got around 56% of their points at home. Stoke (along with manU and saints) were higher at 61%.

This might seem small but given the tight margins in sports betting, could this not be seen as significant if the stat held up over a bigger sample?

I'm used to your posting style arb, so am not offended btw. You know your onions for sure and I'm happy to be put in my place.😃

[Doobs]

Need tips for tomorrow Doncaster race meet.

Need to impress my staff at work!! Help

The 3.10 is a nice each way race, the 2.00 and 3.45 look pretty dirty. Guess there might be a few win only signs up tomorrow.  Don't get mugged into backing each way in the last 2 races, both are dreadful each way races.

good luck

[TheDazzler]

Second the Stoke bet.

I have no idea what statistical anomaly has Stoke so regularly priced so high at home.

Earlier in the season you couldn't back them but they are in good form now and should be < evens at home to anyone, except the big 3 and maybe ManU too.

Why? Do you make Stoke the 4th or fifth best team in th epl? That is what that redic statement implies and I am a Stoke fan!  Stoke shouldn't be odds on to many teams outside the bottom 8 teams at home.  Even against most of them they should, only be a very small shade of odds on.

Watford are however one of those teams and the 23/20 is a decent bet IMO.

Sorry, but if my ridiculous statement was meant to imply anything, it was that stoke are the 4th or 5th best team AT HOME in the EPL.

I suppose you could argue (why not) that it is the same thing but if you want to break the point down I would argue that stoke score a bigger proprtion of points at home compared to most other teams. This may be an irrelevant stat, but even you admit that stoke are incorrectly priced far too often at home. This is in the most bet in league in the world where the prices are always meant to be correct.

Not disagreeing with you about the "correct price" part of my post as you are more versed in this than I am but when I see stoke at home odds against, I generally pull the trigger.

Backing Stoke every time they are odds against at home is just a punt, there's no edge.

Of course just blindly backing based on price is a mistake and the last part of my post could have been worded better.

I just remember last season, the number of times stoke were odds against at home against very ordinary sides. They have had a poor start to the season this year but are now looking a pretty tough side again. Will be interesting to see how they are priced up for other games.

They haven't had a poor start to the season.  They have 12 points from 9 games (totally in line with expectations).  In their first 5 games they played 3 of the big 5 in the outright betting for the epl, lost 1-0 at home to WBA when down to 9 men after 20 minutes yet still dominated the game and should have got a point tbh having watched the game.  We are being results orientated to say Stoke have had a poor start to the season imo at any stage.  If they had 11 men on the pitch against wba and won they would currently be in the top 6.

So it isn't a completely "ridiculous statement" to imply Stoke are the 4th or 5th best team in the EPL then

Would "marginally wrong" be kinder? 😃

   Yes if you put it like that.  I would prefer to think of it that Stoke are more likely to finish bottom than finish in the top 5 at the start of any given EPL season.

As for the home/away points 'myth' here is last year's league table.  Previous season's points % distribution was pretty similar as well.

http://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/premier-league/2014-15/table.html#$$nwn0pu&&854e0Hj2EeWYxwrBiYTF8Q$$

Stoke got 33 points at home 21 away.  Totally in line with expectations for a normal points distribution % wise for any team between home/away games.  Not trying to have a pop at you btw just trying to dispel certain myths about Stoke which are not that true.

Stoke were the 'profit/loss to a level stake' leaders in the Prem last year according to this site, although I don't know how accurate their starting prices were?
http://welovebetting.co.uk/2015/07/profit-loss-league-tables-25th-may-2015/