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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16427218 times)
arbboy
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« Reply #108390 on: October 25, 2015, 06:34:11 PM »

Congrats Kuk.  Fair play to you for sticking your neck out against other people's views on the NFL and RWC this week.  2-0 this week on here.  VWP.
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Peter-27
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« Reply #108391 on: October 25, 2015, 06:46:40 PM »

Pre-Race bets:

Race Winner - Lewis Hamilton @ 11/10 with nearly everyone! Given the way this season has progressed, I'm more than happy to take over evens. This race will have some level of "dampness" to it, Lewis should be under evens. Suggest £25.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/winner

Group C (VER/GRO/SAI/MAL) - Max Verstappen @ 11/8 with 365. This is overpriced given that Sainz may not even make the start. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/group-c

Group D (ALO/BUT/NAS/ERI) - Fernando Alonso @ 11/8 with 365. I would expect Alonso's experience/higher grid position to do the business here. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/group-d
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DMorgan
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« Reply #108392 on: October 25, 2015, 06:48:45 PM »

I can place the 365 F1 stuff for Fred if needed
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arbboy
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« Reply #108393 on: October 25, 2015, 06:50:38 PM »

http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest-news/bussell-crowned-new-national-hill-climb-champ-as-sennema-defends-her-title-19665

Confirmation of Evans finishing 2nd.  Sounds like we run into a blot on the hcap with a stone in hand.  The winner lost a stone in weight in the last few weeks to power home.  Sorry guys.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2015, 07:03:25 PM by arbboy » Logged
JoeBeevers
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« Reply #108394 on: October 25, 2015, 07:15:16 PM »

Pre-Race bets:

Race Winner - Lewis Hamilton @ 11/10 with nearly everyone! Given the way this season has progressed, I'm more than happy to take over evens. This race will have some level of "dampness" to it, Lewis should be under evens. Suggest £25.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/winner



Just a FYI
2.48/2.5 on both Matchbook and Betfair.
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Karabiner
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« Reply #108395 on: October 25, 2015, 07:27:31 PM »

Sadblokes refunded my small ew bet on the hulk to be top qualifier.

I'd have been more than a little gutted had he been in front.
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« Reply #108396 on: October 25, 2015, 07:46:32 PM »

Well done Kuk, hope you had a lot on.

Really disappointed with Argentina. Interception after one minute. Tap penalty knock on in own 25 after 10 minutes and 14 nil down. Makes you wonder what goes through peoples minds? Then a blatant penalty and yellow card gifts Australia another try. When you take into account Argentina's poor finishing when they had two cracking chances in the first half it was game over.

Oh well, onto the next one.
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hhyftrftdr
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« Reply #108397 on: October 25, 2015, 07:51:38 PM »

Roma have just won 2-1 away at (now previous) league leaders Fiorentina. Salah again amongst the goals, but also annoyingly sent off in the last few minutes. Wonder what the terms of the loan agreement are? Chelsea sure could use him at the moment, so hope they don't/are unable to recall him.

So the win takes Roma top, ahead of Fiorentina and Inter, who could only draw yesterday and are now winless for the last 4 games after a storming start of 5 wins from 5. All still pretty congested at the top, but this Roma team has goals in it.
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aaron1867
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« Reply #108398 on: October 25, 2015, 08:00:19 PM »

Wednesday 12's on Betfair for Promotion seems generous considering there is potential to buy more players in January. You're not getting double figures anywhere else.
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Ant040689
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« Reply #108399 on: October 25, 2015, 08:42:27 PM »

Any love for palace 45/1 to get relegated. I think they likely to get smashed next 3 games and this price likely to
Drop dramatically as they go to lower mid table.  So even if it's bet to lay.

Pardew is awful manager who can't coach good attacking footballers. Defensively palace don't look so great and going forward they've scored one goal in open play in 6 games. He will slowly coach out all
Ability the team has. None of their 5 strikers have scored all season. All the teams around then have guys who are capable of scoring goals.

West brom and stoke beig 6/1 and palace being 45/1 doesn't sit right with me. If the fans who are usually amazing start turning on Pardews awful management then their fortress may not be so strong in a couple of months and with their upcoming fixtures they could go into the Christmas period that's very important with no confidence, fans who are starting to become unhappy at Pardews constant excuses and lack of any imagination.

Other teams below them in table

Swansea - have very very good chance of not being relegated, way more complete team than palace
West Brom - Pulis should grind out enough points
Stoke - too much talent

Teams that are likely to struggle

Sunderland
Villa
Bournemouth
Newcastle
Norwich
Watford

Of course it's not "likely" to happen but 45/1 seems pretty big.



There is value there at 45/1 for Palace to go down, it is an absurd price compared to West Brom.

Defensively we are quite sound just to counter what you said, for example yesterday Leicester had only one genuine chance all game aside from the one we gifted them. Against Tottenham away, goalkeeping error let them in, Man City we conceded only 1. Sometimes we have looked dodgy but generally we are built on a sound defense and an explosive counter. so I don't think we are ever going to be out of many games all season.

Palace had no chances against Leicester however, which is embarrassing. We haven't got a target man and that is costing us. Wickham back soon. He doesn't even need to be prolific just hold it up to draw the midfield higher so Puncheon/Zaha/Sako can get in the goals more.

On Pardew I have only seen a couple of odd managerial moves. One was bringing on Jedinak while chasing the game in the last 20 mins yesterday. He's also played Bolasie up front too much. But fundamentally not terrible just yet, and can't attest to him being shit, but you had him a lot longer than we did and he has only ever been on the up here and will be interesting to see how he reacts to a prolonged poor spell.

For the bet you can look at in the previous two seasons we have had spells by which we were relegation bound so if that seed of doubt seeps in it has run havoc before. We could lose all confidence up front which is sort of happening now. But there was no Gayle yesterday and we do play better when he is available. But I would say even better with Wickham. And ffs get target man cover in January. Selling Murray a complete mistake.

It could go completely wrong despite how good our midfield are but it's doubtful, however not so doubtful that we should be 45/1 so I would support a small bet for thread. I did back against Palace last week and didn't fancy them too much this week, I think that's sign enough there could be something in the bet ha.
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Ant040689
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« Reply #108400 on: October 25, 2015, 08:47:06 PM »

For the NFL fans, I know Arizona play on Monday, but how are we looking for Carson Palmer to be the best comeback player award winner? He in the running?
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arbboy
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« Reply #108401 on: October 25, 2015, 08:50:16 PM »

Could be a very low points total required to stay up this year.  Points in the bag might be worth more this year than normal when considering relegation bets imo.
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JohnCharver
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« Reply #108402 on: October 25, 2015, 08:50:40 PM »

Said it at the start of the season, pardew overtrains players at certain stages of the season and they play above themselves then they fall away, the way palace have since their great start. I cant stand the guy but would be interesting to see what he could do with a club who had the depth to replace the players he burns out, or perhaps an international team at a major champs. Hes basically admitted as such himself while newcastle where they went on a ridiculous run only to have horrendous injury problems.

Its a decent bet through the line of other teams but there are 5 terrible teams in the league for varying reasons and WBA arent much better, just a bit more savvy.
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horseplayer
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« Reply #108403 on: October 25, 2015, 08:59:16 PM »

West Brom will be fine

Rondon now he has a goal will prove the class act he is and with Berahino is more than enough goals to stay up whilst TP shuts the backdoor
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Ant040689
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« Reply #108404 on: October 25, 2015, 09:03:03 PM »

Could be a very low points total required to stay up this year.  Points in the bag might be worth more this year than normal when considering relegation bets imo.

Fair point, and think that it could well be a low points total but is there much to consider when it's 45/1 in this case though, when the mid table is quite clearly shallow?

I suppose I'm only thinking it's value when compared to WBA being 6/1 and only 1 point behind rather than calculating it any other way.
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