Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Palace got 15 points on the board already.  If we assume 38 points for safety (i think it will be lower fwiw) then in their remaining 28 games they would have to pick up around 20 points to be in trouble.  (similar to them having a circa 27 point season from the start).  Just so so unlikely given their squad and start.  

Would you have backed Palace to get less than 27 points pre season at 45/1?

[Chompy]

Malky now 6-4 for the Charlton gig.

[Ant040689]

Palace got 15 points on the board already.  If we assume 38 points for safety (i think it will be lower fwiw) then in their remaining 28 games they would have to pick up around 20 points to be in trouble.  (similar to them having a circa 27 point season from the start).  Just so so unlikely given their squad and start.  

Would you have backed Palace to get less than 27 points pre season at 45/1?

A small bet considering a complete downfall to get that might happen one in 30 times but its nitpicking. I think I am being thrown by the disparity between WBA and Palace prices.

[Peter-27]

If you didn't just watch that race, make sure you catch the highlights - that was epic!!

One of the best races in recent years, without doubt.

[TightEnd]

The jets covered earlier

[DropTheHammer]

To reach Q3 - Nasr & Ericsson both at 5/1 with lads. Both drivers have previously demonstrated skill in the wet weather in their careers to date, suggest £5 on each.

Lads have settled these as losers, surely I should be refunded the stakes?

[Tal]

I've been looking at the Falcons @ Titans game tomorrow and am scratching my head a bit.

Firstly, 71% of the money in vegas is on Atlanta -7, yet we can get -6 here. Ok. Good. Tennessee have lost their quarterback and their center, so the replacement QB is going to feel exposed. Mettenberger hasn't won a game out of the six he has played for Tennessee. No reason to suppose that's about to change.

If you think the offensive line is bad, wait til you see the defensive line of Tennessee. The worst runstuffers in the NFL and facing a bloke who has gone over 100 yards in three of his last four games and leads the NFL in touchdowns. Devonta Freeman's line for yards? 90.5. Thank you, shouty red man.

If Tennessee have any hope of being competitive, the man who might get them there is Delanie Walker. He is their tight end and that is a weak spot for Atlanta, who have given up touchdowns in their last three games to TEs. 66.5 yards average conceded by the Falcons. Walker got 97 last week against Miami. 36 the week before against Buffalo, but the Bills dominated the pass rush that week. Before that, he has had a wrist injury. He is back and fit now and by far the best hands in the team. Short passes for simple downs and red zone targets (which may be few and far between) right up Walker's street. Shouty Red Man says...55.5 yards.

Click to see full-size image.

Recommend:

£33 Atlanta -6
£22 Devonta Freeman over 90.5 rushing
£44 Delanie Walker over 55.5 receiving

Given the bookie, you won't be getting that, but just giving you an idea of my views on the bets.

I am reluctant to take Atlanta -6, -7 when they were -3 before the Mariota news but must resist giving NFL views :-)

Atlanta Falcons -6 Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans Point Spread
10/11
Total Stake: £33.00
Potential Returns: £63.03

Over Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans Total Rushing Yds - Devonta Freeman
10/11
Total Stake: £11.00
Potential Returns: £21.00

Over Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans Total Receiving Yds - Delanie Walker
10/11
Total Stake: £11.00
Potential Returns: £21.00

Atlanta won 10-7 (loser)
Devonta Freeman 116 yards (winner)
Delanie Walker 55 yards (loser)

I've had a pretty rotten weekend in NFL markets. Undoubtedly due one of those tbf. Falling one yard short for the big bet of the weekend on Delanie Walker is pretty galling, though.

Jamelia survives the dance off for another one off the crossbar.

Oh and EJ Flipping Manuel

[fatcatstu]

Walker ended up with 55, sick sick sick.

I have also been decimated today, with Rivers currently repeatedly sticking the boot in with 105 yards in the first half.

Cheers Phil.

[DMorgan]

To reach Q3 - Nasr & Ericsson both at 5/1 with lads. Both drivers have previously demonstrated skill in the wet weather in their careers to date, suggest £5 on each.

Lads have settled these as losers, surely I should be refunded the stakes?

Only Q2 needs to run to determine who makes Q3, seems fair enough to me

[McGlashan]

To reach Q3 - Nasr & Ericsson both at 5/1 with lads. Both drivers have previously demonstrated skill in the wet weather in their careers to date, suggest £5 on each.

Lads have settled these as losers, surely I should be refunded the stakes?

Only Q2 needs to run to determine who makes Q3, seems fair enough to me

Yup. I'd written the bets off as losers.

[fatcatstu]

Walker ended up with 55, sick sick sick.

I have also been decimated today, with Rivers currently repeatedly sticking the boot in with 105 yards in the first half.

Cheers Phil.

Rivers pulls through in the second half and has crept past 325 with a few seconds left in the game.

[Peter-27]

To reach Q3 - Nasr & Ericsson both at 5/1 with lads. Both drivers have previously demonstrated skill in the wet weather in their careers to date, suggest £5 on each.

Lads have settled these as losers, surely I should be refunded the stakes?

Only Q2 needs to run to determine who makes Q3, seems fair enough to me

Yep, spoke to Brokes about it, this is basically what they said too.

They did refund the 100/1 bet on Hulkenberg to have the "Fastest Q3 qualifying time" though

[Doobs]

Palace got 15 points on the board already.  If we assume 38 points for safety (i think it will be lower fwiw) then in their remaining 28 games they would have to pick up around 20 points to be in trouble.  (similar to them having a circa 27 point season from the start).  Just so so unlikely given their squad and start.  

Would you have backed Palace to get less than 27 points pre season at 45/1?

A small bet considering a complete downfall to get that might happen one in 30 times but its nitpicking. I think I am being thrown by the disparity between WBA and Palace prices.

Palace 50/1 with Korals now.

[TightEnd]

For the NFL fans, I know Arizona play on Monday, but how are we looking for Carson Palmer to be the best comeback player award winner? He in the running?

Definitely in the running if his impressive numbers continue

eric berry, the chiefs safety who recovered from lymphoma and is playing well (interception last night for example) was the pre-season favourite and remains so

[tikay]

Australia were lucky against Wales. Had Scott Williams, Jonathan Davies or Cory Allen been fit then I honestly believe we would have won. Had Wales been playing against Argentina then I think, on a neutral venue, Wales would have been slight favourites, 4/5 - 5/4 - 20/1 the draw.
Australia were very lucky against Scotland. No point harping on about it, had the last minute decision been made in the first minute then nobody would have mentioned it. It wasn't though and Scotland were out. Had they not been then I would have made Argentina favourites against them, maybe 4/7 - 7/4 - 20/1.
I can't for the life of me see how Argentina are 5/2 against Australia tomorrow?
Okay, Hooper missed the Welsh game and Pocock missed the Scottish game. Both are playing but Argentina did beat them this time last year and won out in South Africa recently so are clearly a team on the up.
Suggest £25 at 5/2 with Smarkets, if you haven't got an account and want some of mine let me know.

Smarkets? never head of them

well need some of yours to get the 5/2 please.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/argentina-v-australia/winner

let me know how much of the £25 you can spare

You've got £25 @ 3.55 as I'm balls deep on Argentina.

Smarkets are an exchange which don't have Betfairs liquidity but do stay open during peak punting times. They also only charge 2% commission.

BOOKED

Thank you very much Mr Rubbish, settle up after the game?

Morning Mr Rubbish,

Do I owe you £25 now?

If so, PM me your Bank Details please, & I'll settle up.