Tips for Tikay

[Rubbish2407]

Australia were lucky against Wales. Had Scott Williams, Jonathan Davies or Cory Allen been fit then I honestly believe we would have won. Had Wales been playing against Argentina then I think, on a neutral venue, Wales would have been slight favourites, 4/5 - 5/4 - 20/1 the draw.
Australia were very lucky against Scotland. No point harping on about it, had the last minute decision been made in the first minute then nobody would have mentioned it. It wasn't though and Scotland were out. Had they not been then I would have made Argentina favourites against them, maybe 4/7 - 7/4 - 20/1.
I can't for the life of me see how Argentina are 5/2 against Australia tomorrow?
Okay, Hooper missed the Welsh game and Pocock missed the Scottish game. Both are playing but Argentina did beat them this time last year and won out in South Africa recently so are clearly a team on the up.
Suggest £25 at 5/2 with Smarkets, if you haven't got an account and want some of mine let me know.

Smarkets? never head of them

well need some of yours to get the 5/2 please.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/argentina-v-australia/winner

let me know how much of the £25 you can spare

You've got £25 @ 3.55 as I'm balls deep on Argentina.

Smarkets are an exchange which don't have Betfairs liquidity but do stay open during peak punting times. They also only charge 2% commission.

BOOKED

Thank you very much Mr Rubbish, settle up after the game?

Can do. If it's a winner you might want to leave it on the exchange, always handy to have a few quid if you need to lay something off. I won't be about until tomorrow evening though. Let me know.

[tikay]

Australia were lucky against Wales. Had Scott Williams, Jonathan Davies or Cory Allen been fit then I honestly believe we would have won. Had Wales been playing against Argentina then I think, on a neutral venue, Wales would have been slight favourites, 4/5 - 5/4 - 20/1 the draw.
Australia were very lucky against Scotland. No point harping on about it, had the last minute decision been made in the first minute then nobody would have mentioned it. It wasn't though and Scotland were out. Had they not been then I would have made Argentina favourites against them, maybe 4/7 - 7/4 - 20/1.
I can't for the life of me see how Argentina are 5/2 against Australia tomorrow?
Okay, Hooper missed the Welsh game and Pocock missed the Scottish game. Both are playing but Argentina did beat them this time last year and won out in South Africa recently so are clearly a team on the up.
Suggest £25 at 5/2 with Smarkets, if you haven't got an account and want some of mine let me know.

Smarkets? never head of them

well need some of yours to get the 5/2 please.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/argentina-v-australia/winner

let me know how much of the £25 you can spare

You've got £25 @ 3.55 as I'm balls deep on Argentina.

Smarkets are an exchange which don't have Betfairs liquidity but do stay open during peak punting times. They also only charge 2% commission.

BOOKED

Thank you very much Mr Rubbish, settle up after the game?

Can do. If it's a winner you might want to leave it on the exchange, always handy to have a few quid if you need to lay something off. I won't be about until tomorrow evening though. Let me know.

Perfect, yes, if it wins, hold onto it, if it loses, I'll send the cash across in the morning.

[fatcatstu]

San Diego v Oakland

Phillip Rivers has 4 games over 350 yards passing this season, 1 of which went past 400 and another one (last week) that went past 500!! The Chargers average 346 passing yards a game, and with Melvin Gordon proving incapable of holding onto the football, this will only get higher in my opinion.

Oakland give up 299 yards per game on average, which is 2nd highest in the NFL, so for me Rivers over 320.5 yards with Labrokes is a great bet.

Recommend £20

[TightEnd]

San Diego v Oakland

Phillip Rivers has 4 games over 350 yards passing this season, 1 of which went past 400 and another one (last week) that went past 500!! The Chargers average 346 passing yards a game, and with Melvin Gordon proving incapable of holding onto the football, this will only get higher in my opinion.

Oakland give up 299 yards per game on average, which is 2nd highest in the NFL, so for me Rivers over 320.5 yards with Labrokes is a great bet.

Recommend £20

sorry, too many exclamation marks. this disqualifies the recommendation.

[fatcatstu]

San Diego v Oakland

Phillip Rivers has 4 games over 350 yards passing this season, 1 of which went past 400 and another one (last week) that went past 500!! The Chargers average 346 passing yards a game, and with Melvin Gordon proving incapable of holding onto the football, this will only get higher in my opinion.

Oakland give up 299 yards per game on average, which is 2nd highest in the NFL, so for me Rivers over 320.5 yards with Labrokes is a great bet.

Recommend £20

sorry, too many exclamation marks. this disqualifies the recommendation.

Haha, fair enough I shall accept my medicine! (!!)

[fatcatstu]

San Diego v Oakland

Phillip Rivers has 4 games over 350 yards passing this season, 1 of which went past 400 and another one (last week) that went past 500! The Chargers average 346 passing yards a game, and with Melvin Gordon proving incapable of holding onto the football, this will only get higher in my opinion.

Oakland give up 299 yards per game on average, which is 2nd highest in the NFL, so for me Rivers over 320.5 yards with Labrokes is a great bet.

Recommend £20

[hector62]

Morning mr rubbish.

I backed australia at the start of the tournament and I am worried about this game. If pocock was fit then I would be confident of a win today, but he is so important to them that he will play even if he is 70% fit and that is a worry. Australia can look so good at times but I believe that is because they have 2 ball steelers who work in tandem. With filau also clearly not fully fit I can't consider backing australia but I will be cheering them on.

[TightEnd]

I love watching Argentina play, and my heart is with them today.

I have a bet on Australia w/o NZ pre-tournament too

Aside from who will win i do think it should be high scoring. Argentina are the most vulnerable of the semi-finalists defensively. Both teams have plenty of pace and flair.

Argentina/Sanchez probably the more reliable kicking game, should keep them in touch at a minimum

It's a dry day, think its far more likely to be 25 points plus each than less than 20 points each (even without the weather, yesterdays semi was never going to be a 50 point game, South Africa don't create the chances and their defence was solid for the most part), yet the market doesn't reflect that

[TightEnd]

Just posted on the Strictly thread...

Highest Scorer

We are starting to see the pack catching up as those with no dance experience show promise and learn the skills. This logically means there's a higher chance of a chop at the top, so we should be thinking of where the value might be.

Peter has to do a slow dance, which we haven't seen him try yet. I expect him to have hips but the mood of the dance is going to be a challenge, after a run of quick and intense dances (randomly selected, I am sure) in the early weeks. We will find out tonight whether he is a genuine contender for the glitter ball tonight, IMO. The rumba is by far the hardest dance for men - a lot of apparent inactivity but you have to keep fluid motion through the body and soft hips with a straight leg, which will feel unnatural but looks great - so anything above 28 would be a serious score. This early, I'd add 4 to any male rumba score for a rough idea of how he does.

Katie has an interesting dance tonight. Anton's last choreography for a latin was the Pretty Woman cha cha of week three, which was heavily and rightly chastised for a lack of content. Anton is not the most natural salsa dancer and he won't have danced the salsa at all outside Strictly; it isn't part of the traditional ten dances and Anton would almost exclusively be in ballroom competitions anyway. However, the judges will be watching and he needs to produce a decent dance for Katie, who has great legs and a natural rhythm, so she should be able to do well tonight. Expect lots of "armography", but that means there are risks of it going wrong as one of them (and it could be either - Anton himself admitted making a mistake in their Viennese Waltz last week) loses timing. I'd not want to be backing her to top the leaderboard two weeks on the bounce.

Jay is comically short again. He will deliver a good Paso - he strikes me as being a good character dancer - but 7/4 is bonkers. 5/2 would be on the tight side of fair. Doobs's post above suggests the bookies are taking bets on Jay, which explains why we shouldn't be following suit. I don't like the song as a Paso, but Aliona is adamant it works. Aliona is putting too much content in her choreography for Jay, in my view. He would be better off with less to remember and doing it well.

Kellie's jive looks fantastic. She is a very serious contender IMO. However, her greatest asset is also her biggest threat: Kevin. The smartest pro dancers on Strictly (off the top of my head, Matthew Cutler, Ola Jordan, Lilya Kopylova, Darren Bennett, Artem Chigvintsev, Brendan Cole, Natalie Lowe) take a little off the sharpness of their dancing, particularly in latin, so that their partner looks the same as them. It's called underdancing. Looking at their training, I'm seeing the same problem as Suzanna Reid had with Kevin, as his kicks and flicks are supremely sharp (start later, finish earlier), which masks how good Kellie's are. She will still score well but the syncopation in the side by side parts of the jive might not look as good as it actually is.

Georgia continues to be solid and unspectacular. I don't expect her to be any different tonight. I still believe she struggles with quicker stuff and this salsa feels quick and involved. She will be fine but 6/1 to top the leaderboard is no price at all.

Anita has a lot going for her and I do anticipate she will go deep in this series. However, this doesn't feel like her dance to me. The tango will be like Georgia and solid, with lots to like and a few bits to improve upon. Gleb is pushing her, no question, and I would think upper twenties again is realistic.

Helen has been criticised for her ballet legs. She is going to be very good at a light touch quickstep. Aljaž can glide her across the floor and her long, rangy legs will carry her effortlessly. They have excellent chemistry and put the hours in to refine the technical bits...and this dance has a lot of detail, the execution of which is what separates an excellent quickstep from a good one. 6/1 is not bad at all. It isn't a world beating price but it's better than I expected. I had her at 5/1 ish and with Jay being falsely short, there's room for a bet here, I think.

Next Elimination

Obvious stuff is obvious.

Jeremy will be worst but will survive thanks to the public. Carol might go but you feel it's a week or two too soon for the darling of the BBC to waltz off awkwardly into the sunset.

Kirsty is 5/4 favourite and I think that's massively out of line. There is often a bounce after being in the dance off: the contestant has a new incentive and the public don't want to lose someone. She has been in the media a lot this week (front page of the metro yesterday, interview with the Daily Mail in the week, a few charity things), which will help her exposure. She has also found a dance she really likes and she's very good at pivots, which, in the Viennese Waltz, is very important. She has a strong core that will enable her to keep frame and posture intact. Against that, Brendan has had a family issue this week, if reports are accurate, and they have not been able to do much training. I expect her to stay nonetheless.

Ainsley's jive will look awful next to Kellie's but he might be funny enough to stop in. Just.

The one I really like to go next is Jamelia. She's been in the dance off before so we know votes are an issue. She is doing a foxtrot which she doesn't look suited to at all. The music is bizarre and I believe she will struggle. 7/1 with betway but 6/1 with actual bookies. I like this.

Cliffs
Helen to be top tonight
Jamelia to go.
Each 6/1

Tenner on each, please, unless there are different views. 

Helen joint top with Kellie.

Should pay 3/1.

just for ref, the dead heat is settled at half stakes not half odds

good call though, thought it should have scooped.

[TightEnd]

I've been looking at the Falcons @ Titans game tomorrow and am scratching my head a bit.

Firstly, 71% of the money in vegas is on Atlanta -7, yet we can get -6 here. Ok. Good. Tennessee have lost their quarterback and their center, so the replacement QB is going to feel exposed. Mettenberger hasn't won a game out of the six he has played for Tennessee. No reason to suppose that's about to change.

If you think the offensive line is bad, wait til you see the defensive line of Tennessee. The worst runstuffers in the NFL and facing a bloke who has gone over 100 yards in three of his last four games and leads the NFL in touchdowns. Devonta Freeman's line for yards? 90.5. Thank you, shouty red man.

If Tennessee have any hope of being competitive, the man who might get them there is Delanie Walker. He is their tight end and that is a weak spot for Atlanta, who have given up touchdowns in their last three games to TEs. 66.5 yards average conceded by the Falcons. Walker got 97 last week against Miami. 36 the week before against Buffalo, but the Bills dominated the pass rush that week. Before that, he has had a wrist injury. He is back and fit now and by far the best hands in the team. Short passes for simple downs and red zone targets (which may be few and far between) right up Walker's street. Shouty Red Man says...55.5 yards.

Click to see full-size image.

Recommend:

£33 Atlanta -6
£22 Devonta Freeman over 90.5 rushing
£44 Delanie Walker over 55.5 receiving

Given the bookie, you won't be getting that, but just giving you an idea of my views on the bets.

I am reluctant to take Atlanta -6, -7 when they were -3 before the Mariota news but must resist giving NFL views :-)

Atlanta Falcons -6 Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans Point Spread
10/11
Total Stake: £33.00
Potential Returns: £63.03

Over Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans Total Rushing Yds - Devonta Freeman
10/11
Total Stake: £11.00
Potential Returns: £21.00

Over Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans Total Receiving Yds - Delanie Walker
10/11
Total Stake: £11.00
Potential Returns: £21.00



 

[TightEnd]

San Diego v Oakland

Phillip Rivers has 4 games over 350 yards passing this season, 1 of which went past 400 and another one (last week) that went past 500! The Chargers average 346 passing yards a game, and with Melvin Gordon proving incapable of holding onto the football, this will only get higher in my opinion.

Oakland give up 299 yards per game on average, which is 2nd highest in the NFL, so for me Rivers over 320.5 yards with Labrokes is a great bet.

Recommend £20

A Restriction for punctuation and cash

Over Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers Total Passing Yds - Philip Rivers
320.5
10/11
Total Stake: £11.00
Potential Returns: £21.00

[KarmaDope]

San Diego v Oakland

Phillip Rivers has 4 games over 350 yards passing this season, 1 of which went past 400 and another one (last week) that went past 500! The Chargers average 346 passing yards a game, and with Melvin Gordon proving incapable of holding onto the football, this will only get higher in my opinion.

Oakland give up 299 yards per game on average, which is 2nd highest in the NFL, so for me Rivers over 320.5 yards with Labrokes is a great bet.

Recommend £20

Just FYI (not for Fred but for everyone else), Scuy are 315.5yds, same odds.

[TightEnd]

the charlton manager was sacked yesterday

this chap was spotted watching them yesterday. ref any new manager market?

Click to see full-size image.

[arbboy]

Manchester United manager Louis van Gaal has no fresh injury concerns ahead of Sunday's derby.
Ashley Young is not ready to return from a calf problem and joins Paddy McNair and Luke Shaw on the sidelines.
Manchester City manager Manuel Pellegrini would not confirm whether Vincent Kompany will be recalled for his first club start in six weeks.
City remain without injured quintet David Silva, Sergio Aguero, Gael Clichy, Samir Nasri and Fabian Delph.

Simple question.  How are manure nearly 7/4 for this game at home?  Looks like Man city are a monster lay around 7/4 for me.  What am i missing?

Are you smashing into Man city at circa 8/13 for this game if they are at home with the same team news?  Really?

I'm nowhere near your level of understanding of what makes a value bet but I couldn't back either team in this. Both had a tough game on Wednesday but United had to travel back from Moscow while City were chilling.
Is home advantage a feature in a derby?

I think the Moscow trip will be a factor in the price.  I just can't have manure anywhere near 7/4.  They are being backed slowly this morning.  The 7/4 has gone but i feel they should still be shorter than they are.  Home advantage is no more or less important than any other game imo for derby matches.  Some people argue its a leveller others state home advantage more important.  Pretty sure it makes little difference over the long term.

[arbboy]

Evans into 4/6 from 13/8 for the cycling.  Paddy have the event up until 2pm even though Evans goes last at 230pm.  I would imagine most of the riders will have raced by 2pm.