Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

Snap up some 14-1 then imo. The tabloids are rarely wrong when it comes to giving line-ups for reality shows.

[Doobs]

Snap up some 14-1 then imo. The tabloids are rarely wrong when it comes to giving line-ups for reality shows.

We assuming 12/1 is good too?  Seems fine to me, 14/1 is shy only, but hills go 12/1

[horseplayer]

http://www.espnfc.com/club/manchester-united/360/video/2707124

Rooney back to hitting the target

[TightEnd]

Eubank, maximum i can get on above 10-1 is £4 i am afraid

[TightEnd]

Pakistan v England ODI Series in the UAE

After the 2-0 series victory by Pakistan over England in the UAE, the two sides begin a four game ODI series on Wednesday

The games are as follows:

• Wed Nov 11 1st ODI - England v Pakistan Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi
• Fri Nov 13 2nd ODI - England v Pakistan Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi
• Tue Nov 17 3rd ODI - England v Pakistan Sharjah Cricket Stadium
• Fri Nov 20 4th ODI - England v Pakistan Dubai International Cricket Stadium

England’s squad, captained by Eoin Morgan, contains several member of the test side augmented by new arrivals who featured throughout the England side in the shorter format of the game through the Ashes summer such as Willey, Roy, Hales and Billings. Many of these players lack experience of these conditions, which could be crucial for what may turn out to be a learning experience first and foremost for a young side.

During the Test series England had four stand-out performers. Cook and Root with the bat (450 and 287 runs respectively) and Anderson and Broad with the ball (20 wickets combined). From these four stand-out players only Root plays in this ODI series

Apart from these four players the major challenge for England here will be in batting depth and in the performances of their spinners. In the test series the highest scoring player who plays the ODI was Bairstow with 134 runs. Meanwhile the spinners’ performance paled in comparison with the quicker bowlers

The pace-men took 31 wickets at 24.5 with a run rate of 2.29. The spinners 20 wickets at 59.8 and a run rate of 4.07 It is the England bowling line up (likely to be combinations of Plunkett, Woakes, Jordan, Willey, Ali, Rashid) that especially looks like it will struggle to me in these conditions.

Meanwhile apart from test captain Misbah-ul-Haq the Pakistan side for this series is full of their best performers notably including leg-spinner Yasir Shah who took 15 wickets in the two tests he played and Wahab Riaz who blew England away in the second test.

So this is a major challenge for England, playing in conditions that do not suit their strengths with a far less experienced team than their opponents

Series odds have Pakistan Evens (William Hill), the Draw 5/2 (Betfred) and England 7/2 (Skybet) for a four game series. Not only do I like Pakistan at Evens, but I think Pakistan should be odds-on, and the 7/4 offered by Bet365 and William Hill on a 3-1 series correct score looks ok

--

aside from that my particular thought was an old thread favourite David Wlley

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/pakistan-v-england/pakistan-england/top-england-bowler

so the bowling line up will be variations of

plunkett
woakes
jordan
willey
ali
rashid

i cant have rashid favourite. i think willey should be favourite, as he can take wickets with swing, reverse, slower balls etc and doesn't need pitch conditions
to be favourable. much better one day bowler than plunkett, woakes and jordan for me

whether he is rotated is an issue, but he has just taken 4 in the warm up game so should start the first game

Do we have any other punts on this? I think Root is a bet, so long as we think he plays all 4 games? looked in good touch in the test series. His record in ODI's in Asia is 530 runs in 11 innings, very consistent with only 1 score below 30. Never played a ODI v Pakistan but overall record is strong. I had Morgan down as the main danger but he's been poor in these conditions in the past. Saver on Taylor?

ODI's in Asia:

Root 530 runs, average 66
Morgan 600 runs, average 28
Hales 34 runs, average 11
Roy 0 games
Taylor 170 runs, average 43
Buttler 159 runs, average 23
Ali 236 runs, average 34
Baistrow 49 runs, average 12

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/pakistan-v-england/pakistan-england/top-england-batsman

£20 3-1 Root 888sport is on

[TightEnd]

our man still in the hunt

1 Joe McKeehen 91,450,000       
2 Ofer Zvi Stern 32,400,000       
3 Neil Blumenfield 31,500,000       
4 Max Steinberg 16,000,000       
5 Joshua Beckley 10,875,000       
6 Tom Cannuli 10,425,000   

top 3 paid (for the bet)

Joe McKeehen, Neil Blumenfield, & Joshua Beckley are the last three players in the 2015 WSOP Main Event. http://ow.ly/UszpX

we finished 4th and bubbled each-way

[TightEnd]

i'm a celebrity line up

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/im-a-celebrity/11985552/Im-a-Celebrity-...-Get-Me-Out-Of-Here-2015-Line-Up.html

[Doobs]

Eubank, maximum i can get on above 10-1 is £4 i am afraid

You've got a tenner at 12/1 if you want it.

[TightEnd]

Eubank, maximum i can get on above 10-1 is £4 i am afraid

You've got a tenner at 12/1 if you want it.

thank you, booked

[ripple11]

Eubank, maximum i can get on above 10-1 is £4 i am afraid

You've got a tenner at 12/1 if you want it.

thank you, booked

10/1 max now with Lads......but they are going 1/5 e/w 3 places (only firm) for the nitty

[nellberg]

1st ODi, Pakistan v England

Joe Root over 25.5 runs with Choral 9/10

Joe Root under 48 performance points with beteveryday at 5/6

The gap between these 2 quotes seems too big, so can we sort of play the middle here?

Performance points are 1 point per run, 10 points per catch and 20 points per wicket. So it's the catches and wickets that could ruin the bet. Root has taken 28 catches in 59 ODI's, so approximately 1 per 2 games. He has 12 wickets in 59 ODI's, so approximately 1 every 5 games. If Root was to get less than 26 runs, he'd need to take at least a wicket and a catch or 2 wickets to make both bets a loser. He's had a slight back issue lately, so hasn't bowled much, which is another bonus.

If one bet is a winner and the other is a loser, it's a small loss. It seems unlikely that both brick, but it's obviously a possibility. There seems a decent chance of scooping both bets, based on Root's ODI history.

Root's ODI's in Asia

Runs     Wickets        Catches  Performance points       W/L/D
DNB          0                 1              10                        D
36            0                 1              46                        W
39            0                 1              49                        D
57            0                 0              57                        D
31            0                 0              31                        W
2              0                 0               2                         D
42            0                 0              42                        W
48            1                 0              68                        D
36            0                 0              36                        W
104          0                 2              124                       D
55            0                 0              55                        D
80            0                 0              80                        D

So from 12 ODI's in Asia, 4 times the bet would have scooped and the other 8 times it would have been a "draw". On no occasions did the bet completely brick. That would have lead to a ROI of 24.29%.

In his entire ODI career of 59 games their has been 10 occasions where the bet would have scooped, 47 "draws" and 2 losses. That would have lead to a ROI of 5.86%.

[TightEnd]

thanks

we can't play the middle as closed at bet365

if i was playing one i'd go over 25.5 runs (largely because he'll be batting 3 or 4 and jason roy doesn't build international innings, a quick 30-40 type player so root will usally get plenty of overs)

i could see him bowling a good slug of overs in the UAE, possibly ali, rashid and root share 25 overs+? that might put me off going under the performance quote

[nellberg]

thanks

we can't play the middle as closed at bet365

if i was playing one i'd go over 25.5 runs (largely because he'll be batting 3 or 4 and jason roy doesn't build international innings, a quick 30-40 type player so root will usally get plenty of overs)

i could see him bowling a good slug of overs in the UAE, possibly ali, rashid and root share 25 overs+? that might put me off going under the performance quote

Ah, didn't know beteveryday had closed you down, apologies. I did wonder about how much bowling he'd do. Rumours of a bad back meaning he won't bowl much was the reason I checked. Only bowling 8 overs in the tests in the UAE despite Rashid and Ali being ineffective means there must be a problem? since his batting has really taken off he hasn't bowled much with the white ball, only 2 wickets in the last 33 ODI's, 1 wicket in the 7 ODI's in Sri Lanka last year in similar conditions etc.

I'd originally done the overs on Root, added in the performances points when i saw a difference of more than 1 wicket in the quotes

[Tal]

Carson Palmer update, as we have had 9 weeks of the 17 week season now.

1. Phil Rivers (SD) 3,033 *
2. Drew Brees (NO) 2,763 *
3. Tom Brady  (NE) 2,709
4. Matt Ryan (ATL) 2,702 *
5. Carson Palmer (ARI) 2,386
6. Eli Manning (NYG) 2,339 *
7. Ryan Tannehill (MIA) 2,237

The players with an asterisk have played a game more and will take a bye week at some point in the next few weeks. I will also add for completeness that Drew Brees missed week 2 with injury, which gives you an idea of his performance to date, but he will also miss one more week.

Rivers continues to astonish. Losing his top wide receiver (Keenan Allen) brought him down to 280 yards last night, but he's going to be in the top three come the season end. Tom Brady will be the only likely threat for the top spot.

Realistically, we are probably playing for third but we are still in the hunt. Seven games left and averaging 300 yards a game takes him to 4,500. If he gets there and we still lose, it's been a great bet.

Palmer has by far the highest average yards per catch, which is because the offense likes to spread downfield and they have real speedsters to aim for. That makes Palmer higher variance I guess but it's more the way they play than anything else. They have good teams and bad teams still to play but the system of spreading out has actually meant they can rack up the yards against everyone with reasonable consistency.

For those who have him as Comeback Player of the Year, he is second in touchdown passes this season, behind only Tom Brady.

[atdc21]

Bi of news re our KINGS PALACE paddypower gold cup bet.
now best 8/1, mostly
Tom Scu is hoping to be back from injury to ride him out later in week, and hopes to be fit to ride IF he runs in race (still entered in hennessy)