Tips for Tikay

[Bazzaboy]

I'm all over Wolfie tonight as well

[arbboy]

bazza where would u rank wolfie talent wise in the pdc order of merit roughly?  I can't have it that he is outside the top 25 which the sort of prices we have seen this week imply.

[Tal]

Kim (coincidentally) came out to the Wolverhampton Wanderers song. That was the last time he had the crowd funking for him. Sky need to find some shots of his missus to get them back onside, he said cynically.

[Bazzaboy]

bazza where would u rank wolfie talent wise in the pdc order of merit roughly?  I can't have it that he is outside the top 25 which the sort of prices we have seen this week imply.

I'd have him about 12-14. Certainly way higher than 25.

[arbboy]

bazza where would u rank wolfie talent wise in the pdc order of merit roughly?  I can't have it that he is outside the top 25 which the sort of prices we have seen this week imply.

I'd have him about 12-14. Certainly way higher than 25.

Same

[horseplayer]

Ecuador 2-1 up at home to Uruguay great game 65 minutes gone

Win this almost qualified already

[Peter-27]

Brazilian GP bet suggestions:

Race Winner - Nico Hulkenberg & Sergio Perez both EW (1/3 1-2) at 200/1 with SkaiBet (200/1 on Sergio with WH too). This track has always suited Force India, and Nico Hulkenberg in particular. 66/1 to finish top two is a bit excessive. Suggest £5 each way per driver.

Points Finish - Max Verstappen (EVS) & Carlos Sainz (11/10) with 365 (and others). The Interlagos circuit is a track where talented drivers shine, and I expect that to be the case for Max & Carlos this weekend. Suggest £20 on each.

Pole Position - Lewis Hamilton at 6/5 with StanShames or 11/10 with PP/Betunfair. I hate betting with StanShames after "Nikegate", but on the other hand, it would be extra sweet to take their money. 6/5 is too high. Despite Nico's dominance lately, I suggest £50 on this one. This track is a Lewis-favourable circuit.

Practice One, Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 8/5 with Beewin. 8/5 is too high in a practice session where sandbagging could occur, on one of Nico's best circuits. Suggest £20.

To Reach Q3 - Carlos Sainz @ 5/4 with GLadbrookes. Similar reasoning to the points finish justification above. Suggest £20.

Not To Finish The Race - Will Stevens @ 10/3 with Choral & Daniel Ricciardo @ 9/2 with 365 & BetDred. In the case of Stevens, the price looks a little too high to me on a track like this. Meanwhile for Ricciardo, I think the Renault engine will give up quite simply. This track is very hard on engines; high speed, high altitude, large elevation change per lap. £20 on both.

[horseplayer]

Brazil Argentina postponed until tomorrow evening due to flooding

Glad I stayed up now....

[KitKeeper]

bazza where would u rank wolfie talent wise in the pdc order of merit roughly?  I can't have it that he is outside the top 25 which the sort of prices we have seen this week imply.

I'd have him about 12-14. Certainly way higher than 25.

He's top 10, easy.

Most are blinded by the PDC and I wouldn't be shocked if half the crowd didn't know who he was.

Adams is class, and always has been.

[fatcatstu]

Love Tal's NFL bets, I have tipped mainly NFL bets since coming on here, and sometimes things happen in the game that just plain old statistically shouldn't!!

The longer range first td best are great value, but if you don't like them, don't put them on

I can personally see Mr Ivory slamming in a 1yd TD for the first one, but that's not much value at all

[TL900]

bazza where would u rank wolfie talent wise in the pdc order of merit roughly?  I can't have it that he is outside the top 25 which the sort of prices we have seen this week imply.

I'd have him about 12-14. Certainly way higher than 25.

He's top 10, easy.

Most are blinded by the PDC and I wouldn't be shocked if half the crowd didn't know who he was.

Adams is class, and always has been.

well, hes not is he.

MVG/Ando/Taylor/snakebite/lewis/wade/chizz/thornton/white/huybrechts seem like a solid top 10 imo (not sure on the actual official top 10) then you got players like jenkins/smith/whitlock/king/RvB/bunting/dolan/VdV some of which I would have Adams ahead of fwiw but certainly not ahead of anyone in the first 10 i named

To say hes top 10 easy is a bit of a stretch imo. 15 seems about right.

[HutchGF]

I think Thornton is a great price at 4.0 tomorrow, I agree with everything that's been said about Taylor. Thornton won the last tournament and seems to have returned to the kind of form that got him in the PL a couple of years ago.

Incidentally, I also like Webster at 2.75. His form is much improved this year and he's playing the ever inconsistent RvB. He did a really professional job on Anderson last round and looked in control from start to finish. I certainly wouldn't put anyone off backing him tomorrow.

To comment on the Wolfie debate, I simply cannot have him in the PDC top 10. He's way off the pace of MvG/Anderson/Taylor/Lewis/Wade/Chizzy/Wright/Smith/Thornton ( a future world champ imho).

Top 20, top 15 at a push.

[The Camel]

bazza where would u rank wolfie talent wise in the pdc order of merit roughly?  I can't have it that he is outside the top 25 which the sort of prices we have seen this week imply.

I'd have him about 12-14. Certainly way higher than 25.

He's top 10, easy.

Most are blinded by the PDC and I wouldn't be shocked if half the crowd didn't know who he was.

Adams is class, and always has been.

well, hes not is he.

MVG/Ando/Taylor/snakebite/lewis/wade/chizz/thornton/white/huybrechts seem like a solid top 10 imo (not sure on the actual official top 10) then you got players like jenkins/smith/whitlock/king/RvB/bunting/dolan/VdV some of which I would have Adams ahead of fwiw but certainly not ahead of anyone in the first 10 i named

To say hes top 10 easy is a bit of a stretch imo. 15 seems about right.

I felt like Kim played his absolute best tonight and Adams was a little bit off on the doubles. And it was a completely even game.

Can't see how you can rate Kim above Adams.

[Tal]

You're right, Camel. He picked up a hamstring injury three weeks ago against the Pats. Since then, he has played against Oakland and Jacksonville, who both have big front fours. Marcel Dareus isn't going to be much easier, even without Kyle. Mangold is half fit at best but he's also a nutcase like most linemen so no one will see or hear him complain.

The Jets success will come from spreading the Bills D Line and playing extra receivers, rather than their recent tactic of having extra tight ends to bolster the line. If they squish the Bills front four inwards, there's not a chance of daylight. I expect them to test the linebackers and safeties in the slot to exactly that effect.

Funnily enough, I reckon the Bills will use McCoy in the passing game more tonight and target the same area of weakness. The Jets are statistically good against short passes but they aren't that good against the balls thrown in the centre, short or long. Tyrod Taylor showed last week he is only going to make pass plays when they're high percentage plays. McCoy is a good pass option. Richie Incognito has probably been the Bills' best player this season and keeps making gaps on the left side for running backs to get through. 80.5 combined rush and receiving yards is a good one IMO (Shouty red man)

Last week, Rex Ryan told the defense he wanted them to make sacrifices for the team and, in order to show he was part of the team, he told them he was simplifying the playbook on defense, so they ran basic plays almost exclusively against Miami. I expect something similar tonight.

With all the talk about IK Enempkali being named a team captain for this game (he was sacked by the Jets in preseason after he sucker punched their quarterback, Geno Smith - by the way, didn't that come out well for the Jets!), Rex made an interesting comment about making sure the former Jets players in his team got the chance to show their worth tonight.

He did something similar in the first game against Miami, where tight end Charles Clay got the first touchdown. Another former Jet playing in red tonight is Matthew Mulligan. A bit of a journeyman blocking tight end, who has played about 25% of snaps this season. He has one catch all season and has two career touchdowns. 20/1 anytime touchdown scorer could be fun. 66/1 with BMU or BillyMo first touchdown makes more sense to me, though, as what point is there sending a message late in the game? Do it early for maximum impact.

No strong views on Ivory from me. Close game so probably gets called upon for some legwork to manage the clock. Can't be a bad bet.

Let's have a fun tenner on Matthew Mulligan first TD with BMU

And £22 on LeSean McCoy to get over 80.5 combined rushing and receiving yards with The Red Bloke.

Didn't see the game but Mulligan didn't score the first touchdown. McCoy got 112 rushing yards and 47 through the air for a combined 159 yards.

For those on Tighty's tip, Chris Ivory got 99 rushing yards, so that won, too.

[tikay]

Tal, how many touchdowns do you expect tonight? 4/5 maybe?  If so 20/1 anytime is going to be better than 66/1 first.  20/1 anytime must be about equivalent to 90/1 first.  Unless there is some reason this fella is more likely to get 1st than 5th anyway. 

For Buffalo, under 2.5 is quoted around 4/6. You'd also have to factor in the teams chances of scoring the first TD, which is quoted around evens.

Either way there is no value in the touchdown scorer bet in the slightest, it's just a dart.

I prefer hunch to dart, but point taken

Rex is very difficult to predict. Half the time I'm not sure even he knows what he's thinking.

The whole sport is difficult to predict to be fair

I don't doubt your ability to find wrong lines on players etc but a few of these TD 'hunches' you've had lately would get laughed out of town if they had come from anyone else.





Now we sit back and watch Matthew fkin Mulligan dot up.....!

I'd like to think that nobody who makes an effort on this thread gets "laughed out of town", this is blonde, not Betfair.

That especially applies to Tal, who makes as much effort as anyone to rev Fred up, with beautifully articulated recommendations. There's no personal benefit to him, or anyone else, spending so much time trying to help others, except, well, that's how the thread works - we all help each other, & learn how to be better bettors.  If you read some of his SCD & Chess stuff, it's a joy to read, & some very successful pro punters follow Tal's stuff.

Collectively, I'd estimate that Fred must have taken a decent 6 figure sum off the bookies, somewhere between £300,000 & £500,000 at a guess. And it's free to view. It don't cost a penny. And nobody has to follow a recommendation. It works because folks make that bit of effort for others.

A chap - a very profitable Fred regular, made a suggestion last week, just put something out there for consideration. Your reply? "No",. That was it, no explanation, no reasoning. "No". How does that help anyone?

Be great to see you put a few detailed recommendations up, we see very few from you. To my mind, that's the rite of passage if we want to keep dissing those who put a lot in.

Let's work as a team, & help each other.