Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

The Christmas hurdle seems an interesting each way race.  Heavy odds on favourite plus 2 reasonably strong horses and two who are probably not good enough.  I think The New One should be very close to evens to get in the first two.  The 2.3 something on Betfair looks a bit big, but a few bookies are 7/4 the place (7/1 and a quarter first 2).  Maybe he never quite made the top and Faugheen looks a machine, but we really lose little on the win vs Betfair and the place terms more than make up for it.  I think this must be worth 25 each way too.  

For those who get it, the each way double Cue Card (4/1 and quarter odds first 3) and The New One (7/1 and quarter first 2) is obviously worth a few quid too, as you a doubling up the generous place terms.  

Do you not attach any significance to the fact that the stable jockey has freely chosen to ride Old Guard rather than TNO?

<edit> Obv not stable jockey to his dad any more but pretty sure he had the choice.

www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/the-new-one-old-guard-sam-twiston-dav

By choosing Old Guard here, he keeps his options open for Cheltenham.

[rfgqqabc]

Betfred still offering each way and are 7/4 compared to corals 5/4. Max time.

https://m.oddschecker.com/m/#/greyhounds-ante-post-bags-track-championship-winner

Each way no longer offered. :$ someone's going to have a poor Xmas party.

I've just seen Fred cancelled the bets I placed, I'd gone in twice. Obviously my account has been severely restricted now, but they just cancelled them without giving me any sort of notice at all, not even an email. I think the second one went through to a trader, not 100% though. Would I have had a case with IBAS? Seems fairly dodgy to nr 

[Karabiner]

The Christmas hurdle seems an interesting each way race.  Heavy odds on favourite plus 2 reasonably strong horses and two who are probably not good enough.  I think The New One should be very close to evens to get in the first two.  The 2.3 something on Betfair looks a bit big, but a few bookies are 7/4 the place (7/1 and a quarter first 2).  Maybe he never quite made the top and Faugheen looks a machine, but we really lose little on the win vs Betfair and the place terms more than make up for it.  I think this must be worth 25 each way too.  

For those who get it, the each way double Cue Card (4/1 and quarter odds first 3) and The New One (7/1 and quarter first 2) is obviously worth a few quid too, as you a doubling up the generous place terms.  

Do you not attach any significance to the fact that the stable jockey has freely chosen to ride Old Guard rather than TNO?

<edit> Obv not stable jockey to his dad any more but pretty sure he had the choice.

www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/the-new-one-old-guard-sam-twiston-dav

By choosing Old Guard here, he keeps his options open for Cheltenham.

Interesting angle which I hadn't considered.

OG has already gone up 20lbs in the official ratings this season, and as a 4-y-o almost definitely has more improvement to come, while TNO is probably fully exposed.

The one doubt I had was whether they were going to the well with OG a little soon after it's last run but the jockey's choice seems to have put that theory to bed.

[BigAdz]

Merry Christmas.

Just my tuppence on the racing tomorrow.

Faugheen the machine. Simples.

If I were to play for a place at massive odds I would probably chance Sign of a Victory who was only 6-1 against the machine in this race last year, and you can stick another 6 behind it this year. I point it out, not with any great confidence, as he doesn't seem to have progressed, but then neither has anything else but Old Guard, who still feels like a handicapper to me. Admittedly I can only get £1.43 ew with PP, but it is there for Marky and Tal.


When I first came back, I suggested to Tighty/Tikay that Don Cossack was a massive ew play at 4-1, but by the time we finished the 4-1 was 7-2 and I said not to bother. Now 9-4. Should have kept my gob shut.

Looking at the race I has made the ew play on IC, as it could well be ridden to pick up the pieces, as the pace is sure to be red hot, with so much front end pace likely.

The other play I have made is one of my old fav bets, the this race and Gold Cup double. I don't really fancy Vatour for this race, for all the reasons NC mentioned, but if he does win, he will be 5/2 for the Gold. 14-1 for the double is available and that seems a sensible small play, if you are a V fan, like me. I must confess, I have already made the same "V to win at the festival" bet, as we had success with last year.

I can well see him petering out here and his new target being called the Ryanair, for which he will probably end up 6/4ish.

Finally, West Wizard makes his jumps debut in the second race at Kempton. A real talking horse over the last couple of years with Hendo, he is placed straight into a handicap off a mark of  129. This could look crazy at 1.35.

His defeats in the past have looked disappointing initially, but on reflection they don't look quite so bad.

Minella Rocco looked to be a real horse to follow this year, and may well yet be an RSA horse. Sgt Reckless has proved himself out of the drawer, just below the top one, and Arzal is looking a potential Arkle/Grand Annual player.

All those things make 129 look very workable. Couple this with the fact that West made a lovely shape over hurdles, and looked to have the size to be a decent chaser, I have had a rather decent wager at 6-1 and 11-2. It feels a bit Shit or Bust, so its win only.

For those that can for a tiny amount, it is also the "£10 money back if your horse loses" race with Slybet. Freeroll that ten spot.

Good luck tomorrow chaps.

[sonour]

Smad Place 8/1 EW with 366 1/4 odds is very good. Win odds match Betfair. Place 3.0 v 2.7

3.10 Kempton

[Doobs]

The Christmas hurdle seems an interesting each way race.  Heavy odds on favourite plus 2 reasonably strong horses and two who are probably not good enough.  I think The New One should be very close to evens to get in the first two.  The 2.3 something on Betfair looks a bit big, but a few bookies are 7/4 the place (7/1 and a quarter first 2).  Maybe he never quite made the top and Faugheen looks a machine, but we really lose little on the win vs Betfair and the place terms more than make up for it.  I think this must be worth 25 each way too.  

For those who get it, the each way double Cue Card (4/1 and quarter odds first 3) and The New One (7/1 and quarter first 2) is obviously worth a few quid too, as you a doubling up the generous place terms.  

Do you not attach any significance to the fact that the stable jockey has freely chosen to ride Old Guard rather than TNO?

<edit> Obv not stable jockey to his dad any more but pretty sure he had the choice.

www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/the-new-one-old-guard-sam-twiston-dav

It isn't massively concerning. Old Guard is probably the future.  The New One is already known to be just a bit below top class, but isn't likely to get better.   He is just the kind of horse that is very solid each way.  He is clearly good enough for 2nd and they aren't likely to be saving him for many big days in the future.  I don't think it really matters much, as I think all 4 other than Faugheen are likely value or close to value each way.  I think it is good to just have a bet rather than overthinking and ending up not betting on anything. You could probably do all 4 if you had the accounts.

[horseplayer]

Like a strange one tomorrow
Very rare I spot a hurdler

https://m.oddschecker.com/m/#/horse-racing-2015-12-26-fontwell-12-20-winner

Fitzwilliam has caught my eye twice of late on both hurdle runs.

Both times massive prices. First time schooled at the back jumped well made some late progress. The last run tried to make all faded late against class horses and again jumped really well.

Bit like his half brother for channon was not much cop on the flat and already looks a better hurdler. This is probably a weak enough race and with the experience I fancy he can win this or at least go close.

The very early prices yesterday included some happy enough with anything above . Reckon this goes of closer to second fav if I have read this right.

Suggest 20 win at

[Chompy]

^ Like!

[nellberg]

For those following the "Brisbane Heat to come bottom of the Big Bash" bet, they travel to the Perth Scorchers tomorrow morning, 8.10 am start. Perth are 4/6 favs.

[tikay]

For those following the "Brisbane Heat to come bottom of the Big Bash" bet, they travel to the Perth Scorchers tomorrow morning, 8.10 am start. Perth are 4/6 favs.

Heat are batting first, & have struggled to 64/2 after 10 overs.

Think that's pretty good for our bet.

[ripple11]

I think Bournemouth team info could well be key today.
King and Stanislas both have hamstring concerns and both, one or neither might play. These two provide the pace up front, and have done very well on recent weeks.Without that, Cherries struggle given their style of play. Palace away (great record away atm, and in form,.....as I'm sure Ant will confirm!) shouldn't be underdogs  if neither play and should be backed, ...at least draw no bet.

[tikay]

Like a strange one tomorrow
Very rare I spot a hurdler

https://m.oddschecker.com/m/#/horse-racing-2015-12-26-fontwell-12-20-winner

Fitzwilliam has caught my eye twice of late on both hurdle runs.

Both times massive prices. First time schooled at the back jumped well made some late progress. The last run tried to make all faded late against class horses and again jumped really well.

Bit like his half brother for channon was not much cop on the flat and already looks a better hurdler. This is probably a weak enough race and with the experience I fancy he can win this or at least go close.

The very early prices yesterday included some happy enough with anything above . Reckon this goes of closer to second fav if I have read this right.

Suggest 20 win at

Morning John, hope you had a relaxing Xmas.

Not sure if Tighty is around today, I fancy he may be heading in the direction of Liverpool, so I've placed this one.

Best I could get was 11/2, but you said anything above 5/1 was fine, so we are on, £20 @ 11/2 with BMU. 


12:20

FITZWILLIAM

(Horse Racing Outright - Race)

Odds: 11/2

Stake: 20.00

Possible Return:  130.00

BET PLACED

[tikay]

Pah, just noticed it is 6.8 on Betty.

Bugger.

[Doobs]

Pah, just noticed it is 6.8 on Betty.

Bugger.

There isnt going to be much difference after commission. 

The New One now 8/1 with hills for those backing each way.  Adz horse now much shorter than 66/1. 

I accidentally put 425 on Don Cossack rather than 25 on hills mobile last night.  Had to do some frantic laying off this morning.  Luckily the price has dropped, so no real harm done and might nick a few quid.

King George mad with the bookies this morning.  You can beat Betfair on the top ones with a full set of accounts. 

[tikay]

For those following the "Brisbane Heat to come bottom of the Big Bash" bet, they travel to the Perth Scorchers tomorrow morning, 8.10 am start. Perth are 4/6 favs.

Heat struggled to 117, & Betty now have Perth at 1/7 to win this.

Let's hope they are right, 117 looks very low to me.