Tips for Tikay

[fatcatstu]

2nd ODI between South Africa and England is early on Saturday morning, 8am

Badbrokes have got Joe Root to score o/u 25.5 runs @ 5/6. This under-estimates how good a player he is. The good players normally have a line in the mid to low 30's (ABDV 34.5, Amla 32.5 in this game, Williamson 33.5, Guptill 32.5, Warner 31.5 Smith 33.5 in the NZ-Aus game). Root belongs is this bracket of players but Lads have lumped him in with the likes of Duminy and Miller here, and Elliott and Mitch Marsh in the NZ-Aus game. Coral have it right when they've gone with a line of 32.5.

Root's batted 60 times in ODI's, topping 25.5 runs 36 times, going under 24 times (7 of those were in a row, around the back-to-back Ashes series, when he couldn't buy a run). Judging by the 1st ODI the pitches will be flat and true and the South African bowling won't be up to it's usual high standards. It should be a batsman's series and he's a high-class batsman. Root's scores so far on this tour have been 28, 39 and 117 in the first class warm-up's, 24, 73, 50, 29, 110, 4*, 76 and 20 in the tests and 52 in the 1st ODI, so he's in decent nick. In his last 12 ODI knocks he's scored over 25.5 8 times.

Because they seem to have got the line wrong here it also impacts on another bet. In the handicap match bet (number 4) they have Root receiving 9.5 runs head start from De Villiers @ 5/6, when it should be close to level. De Villiers isn't normally a man to take on, but he's struggled recently (8 in the 1st ODI, 3 ducks in his last 3 test knocks) and he has the weight of the captaincy on his shoulders. If he has to come out to bat after trying to manage a below-par Saffer bowling attack his brain could be frazzled before he even starts, and if they bat 1st he could feel the pressure of having to get a huge score on the board for his 2nd string attack to try and defend.


Rec £30 on Root over 25.5 runs, and £18 on batsman matchbet 4 (Root +9.5), both with Badbrokes

Absolutely superb spots.

How on earth they set the line that low for a man who seems to hit 50's for fun is beyond me.

Love the ABDV spot to. Out of form, trying to steer a smashed up team too. Good calls all round there.

[BigAdz]

I'm sure it has been mentioned before, but having over the last few days I have been ringing bets through on restricted accounts and getting plenty more on than I would online. Padraig are especially dopey. Betfred are equally baffling in that I have an almost closed account yet getting 20/30/50s on all the time on the phone, without question or referral...yet.

Have you tried this approach at all Tighty/Tikay?

[tikay]

I'm sure it has been mentioned before, but having over the last few days I have been ringing bets through on restricted accounts and getting plenty more on than I would online. Padraig are especially dopey. Betfred are equally baffling in that I have an almost closed account yet getting 20/30/50s on all the time on the phone, without question or referral...yet.

Have you tried this approach at all Tighty/Tikay?

Thanks Adz, that's useful to know.

We have not tried it (afaik), no, & I fancy it would be both dangerous & awkward for Tighty to ring up &, as it were, pretend to be me, so it would mean I'd have to do it. If I am around, & I have the time, I'll deffo give it a try, though in truth I'm a bit shy on the phone, & talking to people generally.   

I think we are mostly OK with Betfred, but we are restricted to death at PP, so that one could be useful.

[BigAdz]

I'm sure it has been mentioned before, but having over the last few days I have been ringing bets through on restricted accounts and getting plenty more on than I would online. Padraig are especially dopey. Betfred are equally baffling in that I have an almost closed account yet getting 20/30/50s on all the time on the phone, without question or referral...yet.

Have you tried this approach at all Tighty/Tikay?

Thanks Adz, that's useful to know.

We have not tried it (afaik), no, & I fancy it would be both dangerous & awkward for Tighty to ring up &, as it were, pretend to be me, so it would mean I'd have to do it. If I am around, & I have the time, I'll deffo give it a try, though in truth I'm a bit shy on the phone, & talking to people generally.   

I think we are mostly OK with Betfred, but we are restricted to death at PP, so that one could be useful.

Shy and retiring. Yes. See I where you're coming from.

[tikay]

I'm sure it has been mentioned before, but having over the last few days I have been ringing bets through on restricted accounts and getting plenty more on than I would online. Padraig are especially dopey. Betfred are equally baffling in that I have an almost closed account yet getting 20/30/50s on all the time on the phone, without question or referral...yet.

Have you tried this approach at all Tighty/Tikay?

Thanks Adz, that's useful to know.

We have not tried it (afaik), no, & I fancy it would be both dangerous & awkward for Tighty to ring up &, as it were, pretend to be me, so it would mean I'd have to do it. If I am around, & I have the time, I'll deffo give it a try, though in truth I'm a bit shy on the phone, & talking to people generally.   

I think we are mostly OK with Betfred, but we are restricted to death at PP, so that one could be useful.

Shy and retiring. Yes. See I where you're coming from.

1 out of 2 any good?

More seriously, deffo don't think Tighty can do it for me, can he?

Will give it a try when the opportunity arises.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit yesterday £408

Profit on Month £367.74

Outstanding Bets £3769.80

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=19

Winners yesterday

Hiddink +£320

Wright 180s +£137



losers

-£25 tennis, Paire and Smon lost in straight sets in Mntpellier

-£12 dog finished 6th of 6 at Wimbledon

-£12 Bromley to win the conference, as per WAntP

 
Also yesterday, Batista Agut got a walkover, and progresses at ATP Sofia

and

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/charlton-v-bristol-city/winner

Like Charlton here for a small bet if we can get 12/5.

Don't really think the markets have adapted to the fact the excellent Jose Riga has come back for another go, this is a very similar situation to last time he was here and he managed seven wins and three draws in fourteen matches to somehow keep them up.

Certainly looked to have got them firing last week with a 4-1 win away to Rotherham, also fed Vetokele and Makienok into a front two for the first time for a 90 minute game and they both scored.

Bristol City seem a touch in the doldrums at present to me as well. Before i looked at the prices thought Charlton would be 7/4 possibly 2/1 here.

£20 or similar be good Charlton at 12/5.

[TightEnd]

I'm sure it has been mentioned before, but having over the last few days I have been ringing bets through on restricted accounts and getting plenty more on than I would online. Padraig are especially dopey. Betfred are equally baffling in that I have an almost closed account yet getting 20/30/50s on all the time on the phone, without question or referral...yet.

Have you tried this approach at all Tighty/Tikay?

Thanks Adz, that's useful to know.

We have not tried it (afaik), no, & I fancy it would be both dangerous & awkward for Tighty to ring up &, as it were, pretend to be me, so it would mean I'd have to do it. If I am around, & I have the time, I'll deffo give it a try, though in truth I'm a bit shy on the phone, & talking to people generally.   

I think we are mostly OK with Betfred, but we are restricted to death at PP, so that one could be useful.

Shy and retiring. Yes. See I where you're coming from.

1 out of 2 any good?

More seriously, deffo don't think Tighty can do it for me, can he?

Will give it a try when the opportunity arises.

i wouldn't do it for you, no. Not on the phone.

[horseplayer]

Talking of Bristol City

http://www.bcfc.co.uk/news/article/club-statement-2939354.aspx

Cub given permission to speak to Lee Johnson

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/charlton-v-bristol-city/winner

Like Charlton here for a small bet if we can get 12/5.

Don't really think the markets have adapted to the fact the excellent Jose Riga has come back for another go, this is a very similar situation to last time he was here and he managed seven wins and three draws in fourteen matches to somehow keep them up.

Certainly looked to have got them firing last week with a 4-1 win away to Rotherham, also fed Vetokele and Makienok into a front two for the first time for a 90 minute game and they both scored.

Bristol City seem a touch in the doldrums at present to me as well. Before i looked at the prices thought Charlton would be 7/4 possibly 2/1 here.

£20 or similar be good Charlton at 12/5.

£20.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Charlton Athletic v Bristol City
Match Result
   Charlton Athletic   12/5   
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 68.00
Full stake   £ 20.00
Full estimated return   £ 68.00

[TightEnd]

2nd ODI between South Africa and England is early on Saturday morning, 8am

Badbrokes have got Joe Root to score o/u 25.5 runs @ 5/6. This under-estimates how good a player he is. The good players normally have a line in the mid to low 30's (ABDV 34.5, Amla 32.5 in this game, Williamson 33.5, Guptill 32.5, Warner 31.5 Smith 33.5 in the NZ-Aus game). Root belongs is this bracket of players but Lads have lumped him in with the likes of Duminy and Miller here, and Elliott and Mitch Marsh in the NZ-Aus game. Coral have it right when they've gone with a line of 32.5.

Root's batted 60 times in ODI's, topping 25.5 runs 36 times, going under 24 times (7 of those were in a row, around the back-to-back Ashes series, when he couldn't buy a run). Judging by the 1st ODI the pitches will be flat and true and the South African bowling won't be up to it's usual high standards. It should be a batsman's series and he's a high-class batsman. Root's scores so far on this tour have been 28, 39 and 117 in the first class warm-up's, 24, 73, 50, 29, 110, 4*, 76 and 20 in the tests and 52 in the 1st ODI, so he's in decent nick. In his last 12 ODI knocks he's scored over 25.5 8 times.

Because they seem to have got the line wrong here it also impacts on another bet. In the handicap match bet (number 4) they have Root receiving 9.5 runs head start from De Villiers @ 5/6, when it should be close to level. De Villiers isn't normally a man to take on, but he's struggled recently (8 in the 1st ODI, 3 ducks in his last 3 test knocks) and he has the weight of the captaincy on his shoulders. If he has to come out to bat after trying to manage a below-par Saffer bowling attack his brain could be frazzled before he even starts, and if they bat 1st he could feel the pressure of having to get a huge score on the board for his 2nd string attack to try and defend.


Rec £30 on Root over 25.5 runs, and £18 on batsman matchbet 4 (Root +9.5), both with Badbrokes

you don't think new ball swing at PE is a factor? lots of new ball bowler wickets in ODIs at PE (coastal, wind, swing) and roy and hales won't be in for long with their techniques. (famous last words)

anyway i went to get on and i need tikay to request a password as its not letting me in direct.

[horseplayer]

2nd ODI between South Africa and England is early on Saturday morning, 8am

Badbrokes have got Joe Root to score o/u 25.5 runs @ 5/6. This under-estimates how good a player he is. The good players normally have a line in the mid to low 30's (ABDV 34.5, Amla 32.5 in this game, Williamson 33.5, Guptill 32.5, Warner 31.5 Smith 33.5 in the NZ-Aus game). Root belongs is this bracket of players but Lads have lumped him in with the likes of Duminy and Miller here, and Elliott and Mitch Marsh in the NZ-Aus game. Coral have it right when they've gone with a line of 32.5.

Root's batted 60 times in ODI's, topping 25.5 runs 36 times, going under 24 times (7 of those were in a row, around the back-to-back Ashes series, when he couldn't buy a run). Judging by the 1st ODI the pitches will be flat and true and the South African bowling won't be up to it's usual high standards. It should be a batsman's series and he's a high-class batsman. Root's scores so far on this tour have been 28, 39 and 117 in the first class warm-up's, 24, 73, 50, 29, 110, 4*, 76 and 20 in the tests and 52 in the 1st ODI, so he's in decent nick. In his last 12 ODI knocks he's scored over 25.5 8 times.

Because they seem to have got the line wrong here it also impacts on another bet. In the handicap match bet (number 4) they have Root receiving 9.5 runs head start from De Villiers @ 5/6, when it should be close to level. De Villiers isn't normally a man to take on, but he's struggled recently (8 in the 1st ODI, 3 ducks in his last 3 test knocks) and he has the weight of the captaincy on his shoulders. If he has to come out to bat after trying to manage a below-par Saffer bowling attack his brain could be frazzled before he even starts, and if they bat 1st he could feel the pressure of having to get a huge score on the board for his 2nd string attack to try and defend.


Rec £30 on Root over 25.5 runs, and £18 on batsman matchbet 4 (Root +9.5), both with Badbrokes

Another superb post Nel regardless of result.

Matter of time before you get signed up elsewhere or should be if you so wish

[TightEnd]

Root is now o/u 33.5 5/6 ladbrokes

"coral have it right at 32.5" so thats no bet


gle
South Africa v England - 2nd ODI International
J Root +9.5
Batsman Matchbet 4
Odds: 5/6
1 line at £18.00
Total stake for this bet: £18.00
Potential return: £33.00
Time: 05/02/2016 10:34:22
Receipt No: O/142640973/0001040
Total Stake
£18.00
Total potential return
£33.00

v ABDV

[TightEnd]

Tal wrote to me about SB50 MVP

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/carolina-panthers-at-denver-broncos/superbowl-mvp


"Hello

I've been mulling this one all week. The Panthers game plan is fairly obvious because the offensive line isn't good enough to hold off the pass rush for long.

The Broncos have to get the running game working or they'll be destroyed.

Cam is never going to be value for MVP. He's won league MVP and he may well have Von Miller keeping him honest. Manning is 4/1 best price which, considering he's statistically the worst QB this season and has largely been a passenger in the playoffs is astonishingly bad value, unless there is a schmaltzy pay-off for him at the end.

Number 1 defense and number 2 defense are playing each other and it's  25/1 bar the two QBs for MVP.

45 point game, 3 touchdowns combined predicted for the two QBs and JStew/Tolbert sharing goal line work.

Just wanted to gauge your thoughts on a game plan for Denver's offense. Manning can't bomb it deep anymore and picking out Sanders against Norman with his arm is a huge risk. Carolina are number 1 against Tight ends, so let's not pretend Owen Daniels and Vernon Davis are going to tear it up. The running game is a problem but needs to be used. It makes most sense for us to expect quick releases, screen passes and short checks for solid gains. Do you agree?

If so, the MVP from the Carolina defense seems like the place to look. A playmaking defense with superstar players in the Seattle mould. Kuechly obviously stands out. He can get interceptions, strips and sacks. First name on the defensive team sheet. 25/1 is hardly stingy, even given that everyone saw what Kuuuuuuech did last week. Where else would you go? Thomas Davis might not play every snap obviously. There are some good DE prospects but Denver's OL is excellent and Manning won't be holding onto the ball for long anyway.

How about Californian local boy with something to prove, Shaq Thompson at 250/1? Would he line up alongside Kuechly if Davis ducks out? If not, he'll be covering Owen Daniels as the SLB and tackling as often as he can (he got 7 against Tampa week 17). Looks a real prospect to me, this kid. That price is with ladbrokes.

This is how I see it anyway. Another Malcolm Smith anyone? What do you reckon?"

[TightEnd]

I replied

"The Panthers great LBs kill short passing games...and Manning can no longer throw deep. So denver have to rely on the run

i mean i hate agreeing with the public who are backing panthers -5 -6 at about 70% of total bets but how to denver score without a big arm at quarterback?

for mvp i can think we can reasonably exclude the denver offense

we can definitely include kuechly, shaq, maybe someone like star lotulelei. more likely to shine than a josh norman

the key battle for me is will the carolina tackles oher and the right tackle whose name i forget hold up against dware and von miller?

they were really good against arizona pulling and creating lanes for newton to run

if they do hold up then i think newton has to be in the frame for mvp. he might be good enoguh to be in the frame of mvp anyway as the broncos run defense might bottle up jonathan stewart so newton's read-option/unconventional players become a real difference in the game

if carolina win scoring points you are asking a lot for newton NOT to win it!

The winner is chosen by a fan vote during the game and by a panel of 16 American football writers and broadcasters who vote after the game. The media panel's ballots count for 80 percent of the vote tally, while the viewers' ballots make up the other 20 percent by the way.


i think my strategy will be

kuechly, shaq and a a couple more. maybe kawaan short or star for a nice scoop

possibly stake newton to save and win back what i put on the carolina D. "