Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

I have both Charl and Reed in my portfolio. and

Having tried to mop up the best ew odds around the top half dozen, I see these two as possibly the outsider plays.

Charl seems to be back on his game this year, and I always respect past winners. He seems more confident with his putting which he has struggled with in recent years

Paddy is my major play. We know he loves the occasion, and this is THE occasion for strokeplay. Last year he was Top 30 in all 4 majors, with a 22nd here.

My one other that I have a snifter on at huge odds is Kevin Na, who despite a well advertised lack of self confidence could provide a good trading opportunity, with two Top 12 finishes in the last few years, and again like the others, has been playing well this year.


Final complete banzai, the statutory £5 ew on Freddie Couples first round leader at 200-1.

Edit. Just see Fred pulled out. Tenner saved.

[Chompy]

Not sure how shrewd it is to be backing EW in the Masters, six spots, when eight spots is available elsewhere but with someone that we can't use.

Don't have to bet just coz it's the Masters imo, not when we're losing out before we start.

[doubleup]

Couples out with a bad back I think.

[arbboy]

Not sure how shrewd it is to be backing EW in the Masters, six spots, when eight spots is available elsewhere but with someone that we can't use.

Don't have to bet just coz it's the Masters imo, not when we're losing out before we start.

This.  People do realise as well Paddy are paying 7 places but at 1/5 the odds not 1/4 and VC are also paying 1/5 the odds not a 1/4 on their top 6?  Not sure if people realise this.  surprised someone hasn't come out and said we are betting 10 places for PR and made it 1/9 top ten as the ew terms. 

[doubleup]

Shy's book is 133% compared to the best odds book of 113% - so they aren't quite as fab as it seems.  Also we have discussed in the past that an extra 4 places on a favoured player isn't quite as good as an extra 4 places on a 33/1 shot.  As the latter will land in the extra places or ties more often.

btw I'm also on the reed bandwagon


backed Phil and Matsuyama with shy also

[BigAdz]

Shy's book is 133% compared to the best odds book of 113% - so they aren't quite as fab as it seems.  Also we have discussed in the past that an extra 4 places on a favoured player isn't quite as good as an extra 4 places on a 33/1 shot.  As the latter will land in the extra places or ties more often.

btw I'm also on the reed bandwagon


backed Phil and Matsuyama with shy also

Lets hope Sky don't offer more places on other events, it could be the end of TFT!

Keep posting your thoughts please people.

[rinswun]

Shy's book is 133% compared to the best odds book of 113% - so they aren't quite as fab as it seems.  Also we have discussed in the past that an extra 4 places on a favoured player isn't quite as good as an extra 4 places on a 33/1 shot.  As the latter will land in the extra places or ties more often.

btw I'm also on the reed bandwagon


backed Phil and Matsuyama with shy also

Is there not an argument for saying that in this field, where the top 10/15 have all been in such superb form, the extra places takes on as much significance as it usually would for longer shots? I understand the maths argument that the top players are likely to finish in positions 1-5 more often so the extra 3 are less important, but with everyone in such good form, and there being a drop off after the first 20 in the market, isn't there a greater chance of those at the head of the market finishing 6-8 this year?

I could well be talking bollocks.

[doubleup]

You might be right but the odds on the top 6 just seem very skinny.  Look at Jason Day - he is apparently a 12.5% chance to be first and about a 33% chance to be top 5.  So he has to average a 5% chance for 2nd to 5th.  I doubt he can drop from being a 12.5% for first to 5% for second - so he has to surely be something like 9% to be second - now following this logic we must be about 6% for third say then 4% for 4th and we're now about 2% for 5th.  

This is all obviously guesstimate stuff, but it comes down to him being 6th-8th maybe 4%*  of the time and we go hurrah when we get paid, but I just think that we have to be careful overvaluing the concession on such a short price.

edited after a bit of thought as maybe the chances of a place level out a bit, but still don't think its the huge bargain it appears.

[Peter-27]

Bahrain grand prix   vettel   5/1   15   0   N   -15
Bahrain Grand Prix Top 6 Finish   perez   9/4   25   0   N   -25
Bahrain Grand Prix Not To Finish The Race   gutierrez   11/10   20   42   Y   22
Bahrain Grand Prix Not To Finish The Race   grosjean   6/5   20   0   N   -20
double team points finish   renault   20/1   5   0   N   -5
formula e long beach   bird   10/1   10   0   N   -10
Bahrain gp points finish   Palmer   6/1   10   0   N   -10
Formula e long beach   buemi   11/2   25   0   N   -25

-£98 Total

hopefully better luck in China in a fortnight

Rubbish weekend for these bets, although the spreads worked well for those who got on there.

The Vettel, Palmer and Renault bets may well (and should) be voided because Vettel and Palmer had a DNS.

Cant win em all Peter

You are still a massive winner for fred so chin up

I cleaned up on those spreads you put up Peter.  Cheers!  How do you see the season long spreads going?  Williams take a hit presumably?  Force India looked lacking pace as well.

Awesome!

You know what, lap one was so chaotic that pretty much every car in the field was carrying some degree of damage. That, coupled with the volume of strategies is making data analysis an absolute nightmare. I've been looking through timing data for around four hours and am not even close to deducing what exactly happened during that race. If this is how the rest of the season will be, we're in for an incredible, albeit complicated, season.

Both Williams and both Force India's lacked pace due to damage. I'm still working through the data, and should hopefully be able to draw conclusions over the coming days. It looks like buying Haas on the spreads wouldn't be a bad move right now, although I still need to be more certain before making that move.

.

I bought Grosjean pre season and am up about 50 points and just topped up on Haas a few hours ago as I think they are still too low.  Would welcome your thoughts when you've taken a look though as might adjust further.

That bet looks pretty good as things currently stand. It's a bit hard to tell with any team at the moment given that Australia was massively disrupted by the red flag, and Bahrain was skewed by multiple collisions on the opening lap causing serious damage to most cars. I suspect when we have a clean race, we'll see the Haas drivers at the tail end of the points. I wouldn't personally be buying Haas on the spreads just yet, but maybe in one or two races.

[tikay]

 9hs

Shy's book is 133% compared to the best odds book of 113% - so they aren't quite as fab as it seems.  Also we have discussed in the past that an extra 4 places on a favoured player isn't quite as good as an extra 4 places on a 33/1 shot.  As the latter will land in the extra places or ties more often.

btw I'm also on the reed bandwagon


backed Phil and Matsuyama with shy also

Lets hope Sky don't offer more places on other events, it could be the end of TFT!

Keep posting your thoughts please people.

Absolutely this - it does not matter if Fred can't get on, others can, and that's what really matters.

There are plenty of sub markets, too.

[doubleup]

More on the extra places - if you look at Pat Reed - he's about a 2% chance to win and a 10% chance for top 5, so his chance of finishing in each place is much flatter and for that kind of player the extra place are great value.

[bergeroo]

I'll be doing a bunch of draft kings teams so I've been looking at the Masters a lot the last couple of days.

To take advantage of the extra places I'm looking at the group of guys just outside the elite places and then some absolute long shots to go for the place at 1/4 odds 8 places on sky.

Justin Rose seems massively underrated in the market and under the radar to me at 25/1 especially with 8 places paid as an insurance policy of sorts.

Joint second last year and 8/8 cuts made at Augusta with five top fifteen finishes. He seems the kind of player who gets a big boost with the extra places from his rock solid consistency in top 15 finishes as you'd expect him to be up there somewhere in the top 20 of the leaderboard most years judging by past performance. I'd say he has a lot more chance to actually win (which is of course half the bet) than Stenson for example - who is similar odds and also a consistent player.

We know of course Schwartzel can win here and he already has two victories in 2016. I like Danny Willet, again he seems under the radar as he hasn't played much on the US tour, but he isn't best or near best price with any of the firms offering the extra places right now. I like Fowler too but his best price is not available with the extra place bookies, so maybe a win only at 18/1 for him?

My banzai each ways are
Marc Leishman 66-1/70-1 several firms - Had a third place in 2013. Couldn't play last year but lost a playoff at The Open later in the season.
Bill Haas 125/1 Coral, 100-1 Sky. Top 20 in the past three years and 6/6 cuts made at Augusta.
Chris Kirk 200-1 (best price) on Sky. He has finished T20 and T33 at his two outings at Augusta.

Really playing for the place with these three guys but at 1/4 odds 8 places it seems rude not to.

Would love to hear the thoughts of any more seasoned experts on my picks so far.

[Chompy]

You might be right but the odds on the top 6 just seem very skinny.  Look at Jason Day - he is apparently a 12.5% chance to be first and about a 33% chance to be top 5.  So he has to average a 5% chance for 2nd to 5th.  I doubt he can drop from being a 12.5% for first to 5% for second - so he has to surely be something like 9% to be second - now following this logic we must be about 6% for third say then 4% for 4th and we're now about 2% for 5th.  

This is all obviously guesstimate stuff, but it comes down to him being 6th-8th maybe 4%*  of the time and we go hurrah when we get paid, but I just think that we have to be careful overvaluing the concession on such a short price.

edited after a bit of thought as maybe the chances of a place level out a bit, but still don't think its the huge bargain it appears.

Betty have a 'big 5 v the field' market and it's 2.1 the big guns, 1.9 the rest. The top five prices with Sky aren't bad in comparison. Around 52%. Obv under 50% at best prices.

Paying eight places, a quarter the odds, Sky are 9-4 about a top eight finish for Jordo. He's odds-on to lay in the top ten market on the machine. Jason Day can be laid at 7-1 for as much as you like outright and is 1.8 in the top ten market, compared to 7-4 top eight with Sky.

Given it's 66-1 bar the top 14 runners in the outrights, I'd say Sky's terms are pretty incred.

[arbboy]

You might be right but the odds on the top 6 just seem very skinny.  Look at Jason Day - he is apparently a 12.5% chance to be first and about a 33% chance to be top 5.  So he has to average a 5% chance for 2nd to 5th.  I doubt he can drop from being a 12.5% for first to 5% for second - so he has to surely be something like 9% to be second - now following this logic we must be about 6% for third say then 4% for 4th and we're now about 2% for 5th.  

This is all obviously guesstimate stuff, but it comes down to him being 6th-8th maybe 4%*  of the time and we go hurrah when we get paid, but I just think that we have to be careful overvaluing the concession on such a short price.

edited after a bit of thought as maybe the chances of a place level out a bit, but still don't think its the huge bargain it appears.

Betty have a 'big 5 v the field' market and it's 2.1 the big guns, 1.9 the rest. The top five prices with Sky aren't bad in comparison. Around 52%. Obv under 50% at best prices.

Paying eight places, a quarter the odds, Sky are 9-4 about a top eight finish for Jordo. He's odds-on to lay in the top ten market on the machine. Jason Day can be laid at 7-1 for as much as you like outright and is 1.8 in the top ten market, compared to 7-4 top eight with Sky.

Given it's 66-1 bar the top 14 runners in the outrights, I'd say Sky's terms are pretty incred.

7 places 1/4 odds is bonkers.  8 is insane. I said this last week no one would go 7 places which they haven't at 1/4 odds apart from sky sweat who have gone 8.  The trouble is with sky sweat though is that if you open a new account and back ten golfers ew to take out £5k each or whatever the max bet is on a new account you at about a 1/50 shot to get cut to 1% win lose or draw.  So what is the point of the offer? Just to set fire to cash by sky? Open loads of new accounts and then close most of them after giving them a free bet for opening as well?

[Doobs]

You might be right but the odds on the top 6 just seem very skinny.  Look at Jason Day - he is apparently a 12.5% chance to be first and about a 33% chance to be top 5.  So he has to average a 5% chance for 2nd to 5th.  I doubt he can drop from being a 12.5% for first to 5% for second - so he has to surely be something like 9% to be second - now following this logic we must be about 6% for third say then 4% for 4th and we're now about 2% for 5th.  

This is all obviously guesstimate stuff, but it comes down to him being 6th-8th maybe 4%*  of the time and we go hurrah when we get paid, but I just think that we have to be careful overvaluing the concession on such a short price.

edited after a bit of thought as maybe the chances of a place level out a bit, but still don't think its the huge bargain it appears.

Betty have a 'big 5 v the field' market and it's 2.1 the big guns, 1.9 the rest. The top five prices with Sky aren't bad in comparison. Around 52%. Obv under 50% at best prices.

Paying eight places, a quarter the odds, Sky are 9-4 about a top eight finish for Jordo. He's odds-on to lay in the top ten market on the machine. Jason Day can be laid at 7-1 for as much as you like outright and is 1.8 in the top ten market, compared to 7-4 top eight with Sky.

Given it's 66-1 bar the top 14 runners in the outrights, I'd say Sky's terms are pretty incred.

Sky's terms are obviously good, but that doesn't make doubleup wrong.   People shouldn't overvalue these extra places.  Jason Day isn't ever 1/8 to finish 8th and more likely something like 33/1.  Obviously none of this is that important as we can't bet with Shy on thread (or off for a fair few of us).

I think it is definitely worth considering for those considering a fifth first 6.  I haven't done the maths but for somebody at the top of the market there probably isn't any gain in taking the extra place if you are getting a fifth the odds.  I'd guess it would be worse for the likes of Day and Speith at the very top.  I'd just take the best win price given a choice, and be a bit indifferent between fifth first 6 and quarter first 4.  Obviously quarter first 6 is better than quarter first 5 and quarter first 8 is still very good.

I'd just add that I wouldn't get too excited with the top 10 market on Betfair, it isn't that strong and gets pretty flakey going down the field.  I'd be much more prepared to believe the top 5 market is closer to true odds.  

Edit just done a bit of maths, and think a fifth first 6 is more rubbish than I thought.  Take a 20/1 chance.  A fifth first 6 gets you 4/1 about 6 places which is a tiny bit worse than 5/1 4 places even if each place was just as likely.  Having read doubleup's post, we know that our man is quite a bit less likely to be 6th than 1st, so that compounds as well. Overall I'd say a fifth first 6 is likely to be worse than quarter first 5 on most occasions where you are going to bet.  Suspect you'd have to go right up past 80/1 or so for it to be better. 

cliffs.  Tell anyone going a fifth first 6 to GTFO and the Irish ROFLers aren't nearly as generous with a fifth first 7 as they appear at first.