Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

To be honest all this talk about not betting in the Masters because we aren't getting the best of it is all very well, but you don't have to go back far to find plenty of examples of 'lets have a bet it's the @£(=' .

Or the 'its quiet, so to liven things up' bet.

So I think that ship has long since sailed.

I would say in general, every reg here has learnt what they ever will from the great punters of our time, and so much of it has been adopted, but in the end, I bet even 90% of the top 1% of great punters still have the odd punt.

I think that whilst, logically, that makes no sense to do, the fact is, Fred does occasionally need a little seeding to keep interest levels up.

Not a criticism, in any way. Just pointing out how we shouldn't get too precious at some points, yet not at others.

[doubleup]

You might be right but the odds on the top 6 just seem very skinny.  Look at Jason Day - he is apparently a 12.5% chance to be first and about a 33% chance to be top 5.  So he has to average a 5% chance for 2nd to 5th.  I doubt he can drop from being a 12.5% for first to 5% for second - so he has to surely be something like 9% to be second - now following this logic we must be about 6% for third say then 4% for 4th and we're now about 2% for 5th.  

This is all obviously guesstimate stuff, but it comes down to him being 6th-8th maybe 4%*  of the time and we go hurrah when we get paid, but I just think that we have to be careful overvaluing the concession on such a short price.

edited after a bit of thought as maybe the chances of a place level out a bit, but still don't think its the huge bargain it appears.

Betty have a 'big 5 v the field' market and it's 2.1 the big guns, 1.9 the rest. The top five prices with Sky aren't bad in comparison. Around 52%. Obv under 50% at best prices.

Paying eight places, a quarter the odds, Sky are 9-4 about a top eight finish for Jordo. He's odds-on to lay in the top ten market on the machine. Jason Day can be laid at 7-1 for as much as you like outright and is 1.8 in the top ten market, compared to 7-4 top eight with Sky.

Given it's 66-1 bar the top 14 runners in the outrights, I'd say Sky's terms are pretty incred.

7 places 1/4 odds is bonkers.  8 is insane. I said this last week no one would go 7 places which they haven't at 1/4 odds apart from sky sweat who have gone 8.  The trouble is with sky sweat though is that if you open a new account and back ten golfers ew to take out £5k each or whatever the max bet is on a new account you at about a 1/50 shot to get cut to 1% win lose or draw.  So what is the point of the offer? Just to set fire to cash by sky? Open loads of new accounts and then close most of them after giving them a free bet for opening as well?

My point isn't that the offer isn't good.  It is where the value best lies.  

The book when I looked at it there was ~141% - the place book 565% but with 8x return, so a £1 bet on the win returns 71p and a £1 bet on the place returns £1.42.  Overall ROI of 6%.  

I just think that that value is concentrated in the mid price players like Matt Kuchar who are as likely to be 8th as first.  Even though Shy are 66-1 Matt and he is 80 on the exchange, the 66-1 has an ROI of 29%.  Matsuyama has an ROI of 27%, Reed 29%.

If there is so much value in these players how can there possibly be huge value in the top end of the book?

[peejaytwo]

It's a major betting event, in both senses of the word. That means they can take a longer view & use it as an exercise in acquisition, exactly as they did at Cheltenham, & will do in Euro16.   

You missed the GN off the list Tikay, tell em to go 8 places that as well and I'll get my wife and daughter to open accounts over there. 😀😀

[Karabiner]

Whilst we are discussing Masters Golf, here's the details of BBC's coverage.

I know they are not everyone's cup of tea, but I'm really looking forward to Sir Peter Alliss & Ken Brown doing their thing, they beat Sky Sports all ends up imo.


 http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/golf/26768244

We were discussing this at the weekend and thought Brown would be the perfect replacement host for the much missed Around With Aliss type show.

Anyone else have a thought on this?

He would be perfect imo, he has that whimsical way, & relates so well with the viewers. Good golfing pedigree, fine sense of humour, comfy front of camera.

Do you remember, a few years back, Mr Lineker's attempts at fronting BBC Golf? Hard to dislike Gary, or fail to respect his record as a footballer, but for me, that was a bit of a fail, he just seemed so uncomfortable.

The mightily impressive Claire Balding seems to excel at almost everything she turns her hand to but I doubt that would work with golf somehow.

Were they not so busy elsewhere with other projects, Jeremy Clarkson or Chris Evans might be interesting contenders, & Chris is a decent golfer. Jeremy might ruffle establishment feathers interestingly.   

Sky also gave Andrew Castle a shot at fronting the golf.

Not one of the great casting decisions.

[PokerBroker]

Has anyone seen the 5/1 Frankel to be top first season sire in 2016?  It was mentioned in passing this morning, but I can't find it.  Apparently PhaddyPhower are offering it? 

[tikay]

It's a major betting event, in both senses of the word. That means they can take a longer view & use it as an exercise in acquisition, exactly as they did at Cheltenham, & will do in Euro16.   

You missed the GN off the list Tikay, tell em to go 8 places that as well and I'll get my wife and daughter to open accounts over there. 😀😀

There was a reason I left it off the list.

[arbboy]

You might be right but the odds on the top 6 just seem very skinny.  Look at Jason Day - he is apparently a 12.5% chance to be first and about a 33% chance to be top 5.  So he has to average a 5% chance for 2nd to 5th.  I doubt he can drop from being a 12.5% for first to 5% for second - so he has to surely be something like 9% to be second - now following this logic we must be about 6% for third say then 4% for 4th and we're now about 2% for 5th.  

This is all obviously guesstimate stuff, but it comes down to him being 6th-8th maybe 4%*  of the time and we go hurrah when we get paid, but I just think that we have to be careful overvaluing the concession on such a short price.

edited after a bit of thought as maybe the chances of a place level out a bit, but still don't think its the huge bargain it appears.

Betty have a 'big 5 v the field' market and it's 2.1 the big guns, 1.9 the rest. The top five prices with Sky aren't bad in comparison. Around 52%. Obv under 50% at best prices.

Paying eight places, a quarter the odds, Sky are 9-4 about a top eight finish for Jordo. He's odds-on to lay in the top ten market on the machine. Jason Day can be laid at 7-1 for as much as you like outright and is 1.8 in the top ten market, compared to 7-4 top eight with Sky.

Given it's 66-1 bar the top 14 runners in the outrights, I'd say Sky's terms are pretty incred.

7 places 1/4 odds is bonkers.  8 is insane. I said this last week no one would go 7 places which they haven't at 1/4 odds apart from sky sweat who have gone 8.  The trouble is with sky sweat though is that if you open a new account and back ten golfers ew to take out £5k each or whatever the max bet is on a new account you at about a 1/50 shot to get cut to 1% win lose or draw.  So what is the point of the offer? Just to set fire to cash by sky? Open loads of new accounts and then close most of them after giving them a free bet for opening as well?

Well yes, feel free to readily assume they have no idea what they are doing. Or maybe you have been out-levelled, & there happens to be sound long-term logic behind it.  

Probably best to think a little wider, Argue. There IS sound logic behind this offer, & the specific timing behind it.  

And yes, if you back, or try to back, 10 golfers to take out £5k each, you are more than likely to get Restricted/closed, because that is absolutely not the market they are targeting. Bets of that size may be meat & drink to 1% of the market, the Pros mainly, but the target market won't be betting sums anything like that, or adopting the logic of betting all of the top 10 in the market.

It's a major betting event, in both senses of the word. That means they can take a longer view & use it as an exercise in acquisition, exactly as they did at Cheltenham, & will do in Euro16.    

The trouble is when you make an offer incredibly stupidly good maths wise two things happen (i know this from personal experience because i have done similar stuff in the past for books i worked for).   Sky could easily have gone 8 places and 1/5 odds or 7 places 1/4 the odds and still had the best offer in the market place.  Error number 1. The fact 365, lolbrokes, hills and bald are all 5 places 1/4 suggests how bad an event this is to offer enhanced place terms.  Believe me if this made sense 365 would be doing it and not going the standard terms like lolbrokes, hills and bald are also doing.  Given how aggressive 365 are on price to attract new business on major events to not even slightly enhance the place terms (i thought they might go 1/4 6 places but as i said last week that is setting fire to cash on the Masters generally) says it isn't a great ew betting heat for bookmakers.

You attract a huge amount of professional money (every pro and semi pro arber/punter will be fighting to find a brand new sky bet account(s) this weekend as it is literally free money hand over fist with big limits on a major event - on top of that every new account gets paid £40 from sky in a free bet as well which any pro will use on a huge price like golf and turn it into £40 in cash long term) which you clearly don't want.   If sky wanted to do this for casuals for a pony max why didn't they set up a special enhanced ew market with £25 limits for the casuals with 8 places they are trying to attract then have a separate main market where you can get a large bet on without automatically having your skybet account closed because you do so at more sensible place terms?

Secondly all the wagons you have locked into skysweat already as mugs get incredible terms on a product they would happily bet at 1/5 1234 anyway because they are not price sensitive.  When you are a massively rec sports book like Skybet why would you ever want to compete on price to attract customers? These are not the punters you want.  You don't want price sensitive punters because all you do it close them down.  Paddy has crushed it on their marketing for this event.  They sell 7 places, go bottom price every golfer and 1/5 ew terms.  Their margin on their masters product is probably higher than anyone in the market place given their strategy but they suck in all the mugs with 7 places (advertising 7 places but discretely not telling them its 1/5 the odds on their expensive tv adverts).  These are the types of mugs paddy (and skybet) should be chasing.  Paddy has won the battle hands down without attracting all the sharps at the same time to iron them out.  Can't imagine many pro's running to Auntie Doris this week to open them a new paddy account.

[Doobs]

You might be right but the odds on the top 6 just seem very skinny.  Look at Jason Day - he is apparently a 12.5% chance to be first and about a 33% chance to be top 5.  So he has to average a 5% chance for 2nd to 5th.  I doubt he can drop from being a 12.5% for first to 5% for second - so he has to surely be something like 9% to be second - now following this logic we must be about 6% for third say then 4% for 4th and we're now about 2% for 5th.  

This is all obviously guesstimate stuff, but it comes down to him being 6th-8th maybe 4%*  of the time and we go hurrah when we get paid, but I just think that we have to be careful overvaluing the concession on such a short price.

edited after a bit of thought as maybe the chances of a place level out a bit, but still don't think its the huge bargain it appears.

Betty have a 'big 5 v the field' market and it's 2.1 the big guns, 1.9 the rest. The top five prices with Sky aren't bad in comparison. Around 52%. Obv under 50% at best prices.

Paying eight places, a quarter the odds, Sky are 9-4 about a top eight finish for Jordo. He's odds-on to lay in the top ten market on the machine. Jason Day can be laid at 7-1 for as much as you like outright and is 1.8 in the top ten market, compared to 7-4 top eight with Sky.

Given it's 66-1 bar the top 14 runners in the outrights, I'd say Sky's terms are pretty incred.

7 places 1/4 odds is bonkers.  8 is insane. I said this last week no one would go 7 places which they haven't at 1/4 odds apart from sky sweat who have gone 8.  The trouble is with sky sweat though is that if you open a new account and back ten golfers ew to take out £5k each or whatever the max bet is on a new account you at about a 1/50 shot to get cut to 1% win lose or draw.  So what is the point of the offer? Just to set fire to cash by sky? Open loads of new accounts and then close most of them after giving them a free bet for opening as well?

Well yes, feel free to readily assume they have no idea what they are doing. Or maybe you have been out-levelled, & there happens to be sound long-term logic behind it.  

Probably best to think a little wider, Argue. There IS sound logic behind this offer, & the specific timing behind it.  

And yes, if you back, or try to back, 10 golfers to take out £5k each, you are more than likely to get Restricted/closed, because that is absolutely not the market they are targeting. Bets of that size may be meat & drink to 1% of the market, the Pros mainly, but the target market won't be betting sums anything like that, or adopting the logic of betting all of the top 10 in the market.

It's a major betting event, in both senses of the word. That means they can take a longer view & use it as an exercise in acquisition, exactly as they did at Cheltenham, & will do in Euro16.    

The trouble is when you make an offer incredibly stupidly good maths wise two things happen (i know this from personal experience because i have done similar stuff in the past for books i worked for).   Sky could easily have gone 8 places and 1/5 odds or 7 places 1/4 the odds and still had the best offer in the market place.  Error number 1. The fact 365, lolbrokes, hills and bald are all 5 places 1/4 suggests how bad an event this is to offer enhanced place terms.  Believe me if this made sense 365 would be doing it and not going the standard terms like lolbrokes, hills and bald are also doing.  Given how aggressive 365 are on price to attract new business on major events to not even slightly enhance the place terms (i thought they might go 1/4 6 places but as i said last week that is setting fire to cash on the Masters generally) says it isn't a great ew betting heat for bookmakers.

You attract a huge amount of professional money (every pro and semi pro arber/punter will be fighting to find a brand new sky bet account(s) this weekend as it is literally free money hand over fist with big limits on a major event - on top of that every new account gets paid £40 from sky in a free bet as well which any pro will use on a huge price like golf and turn it into £40 in cash long term) which you clearly don't want.   If sky wanted to do this for casuals for a pony max why didn't they set up a special enhanced ew market with £25 limits for the casuals with 8 places they are trying to attract then have a separate main market where you can get a large bet on without automatically having your skybet account closed because you do so at more sensible place terms?

Secondly all the wagons you have locked into skysweat already as mugs get incredible terms on a product they would happily bet at 1/5 1234 anyway because they are not price sensitive.  When you are a massively rec sports book like Skybet why would you ever want to compete on price to attract customers? These are not the punters you want.  You don't want price sensitive punters because all you do it close them down.  Paddy has crushed it on their marketing for this event.  They sell 7 places, go bottom price every golfer and 1/5 ew terms.  Their margin on their masters product is probably higher than anyone in the market place given their strategy but they suck in all the mugs with 7 places (advertising 7 places but discretely not telling them its 1/5 the odds on their expensive tv adverts).  These are the types of mugs paddy (and skybet) should be chasing.  Paddy has won the battle hands down without attracting all the sharps at the same time to iron them out.  Can't imagine many pro's running to Auntie Doris this week to open them a new paddy account.

I don't think paddy's win at all.  I'd be surprised if the ASA would think their advert was fair.   I'd say it was misleading as it puts the fifth odds in the small print.  At least Victor is clearer, even if they have engaged in the bigger con.  The advert is as bad as those adverts during cheltenham when they said that their offer was open to all the riff raf (or whatever term they used), when it clearly wasn't open to those that Paddy's restrict. 

[arbboy]

You might be right but the odds on the top 6 just seem very skinny.  Look at Jason Day - he is apparently a 12.5% chance to be first and about a 33% chance to be top 5.  So he has to average a 5% chance for 2nd to 5th.  I doubt he can drop from being a 12.5% for first to 5% for second - so he has to surely be something like 9% to be second - now following this logic we must be about 6% for third say then 4% for 4th and we're now about 2% for 5th.  

This is all obviously guesstimate stuff, but it comes down to him being 6th-8th maybe 4%*  of the time and we go hurrah when we get paid, but I just think that we have to be careful overvaluing the concession on such a short price.

edited after a bit of thought as maybe the chances of a place level out a bit, but still don't think its the huge bargain it appears.

Betty have a 'big 5 v the field' market and it's 2.1 the big guns, 1.9 the rest. The top five prices with Sky aren't bad in comparison. Around 52%. Obv under 50% at best prices.

Paying eight places, a quarter the odds, Sky are 9-4 about a top eight finish for Jordo. He's odds-on to lay in the top ten market on the machine. Jason Day can be laid at 7-1 for as much as you like outright and is 1.8 in the top ten market, compared to 7-4 top eight with Sky.

Given it's 66-1 bar the top 14 runners in the outrights, I'd say Sky's terms are pretty incred.

7 places 1/4 odds is bonkers.  8 is insane. I said this last week no one would go 7 places which they haven't at 1/4 odds apart from sky sweat who have gone 8.  The trouble is with sky sweat though is that if you open a new account and back ten golfers ew to take out £5k each or whatever the max bet is on a new account you at about a 1/50 shot to get cut to 1% win lose or draw.  So what is the point of the offer? Just to set fire to cash by sky? Open loads of new accounts and then close most of them after giving them a free bet for opening as well?

Well yes, feel free to readily assume they have no idea what they are doing. Or maybe you have been out-levelled, & there happens to be sound long-term logic behind it.  

Probably best to think a little wider, Argue. There IS sound logic behind this offer, & the specific timing behind it.  

And yes, if you back, or try to back, 10 golfers to take out £5k each, you are more than likely to get Restricted/closed, because that is absolutely not the market they are targeting. Bets of that size may be meat & drink to 1% of the market, the Pros mainly, but the target market won't be betting sums anything like that, or adopting the logic of betting all of the top 10 in the market.

It's a major betting event, in both senses of the word. That means they can take a longer view & use it as an exercise in acquisition, exactly as they did at Cheltenham, & will do in Euro16.    

The trouble is when you make an offer incredibly stupidly good maths wise two things happen (i know this from personal experience because i have done similar stuff in the past for books i worked for).   Sky could easily have gone 8 places and 1/5 odds or 7 places 1/4 the odds and still had the best offer in the market place.  Error number 1. The fact 365, lolbrokes, hills and bald are all 5 places 1/4 suggests how bad an event this is to offer enhanced place terms.  Believe me if this made sense 365 would be doing it and not going the standard terms like lolbrokes, hills and bald are also doing.  Given how aggressive 365 are on price to attract new business on major events to not even slightly enhance the place terms (i thought they might go 1/4 6 places but as i said last week that is setting fire to cash on the Masters generally) says it isn't a great ew betting heat for bookmakers.

You attract a huge amount of professional money (every pro and semi pro arber/punter will be fighting to find a brand new sky bet account(s) this weekend as it is literally free money hand over fist with big limits on a major event - on top of that every new account gets paid £40 from sky in a free bet as well which any pro will use on a huge price like golf and turn it into £40 in cash long term) which you clearly don't want.   If sky wanted to do this for casuals for a pony max why didn't they set up a special enhanced ew market with £25 limits for the casuals with 8 places they are trying to attract then have a separate main market where you can get a large bet on without automatically having your skybet account closed because you do so at more sensible place terms?

Secondly all the wagons you have locked into skysweat already as mugs get incredible terms on a product they would happily bet at 1/5 1234 anyway because they are not price sensitive.  When you are a massively rec sports book like Skybet why would you ever want to compete on price to attract customers? These are not the punters you want.  You don't want price sensitive punters because all you do it close them down.  Paddy has crushed it on their marketing for this event.  They sell 7 places, go bottom price every golfer and 1/5 ew terms.  Their margin on their masters product is probably higher than anyone in the market place given their strategy but they suck in all the mugs with 7 places (advertising 7 places but discretely not telling them its 1/5 the odds on their expensive tv adverts).  These are the types of mugs paddy (and skybet) should be chasing.  Paddy has won the battle hands down without attracting all the sharps at the same time to iron them out.  Can't imagine many pro's running to Auntie Doris this week to open them a new paddy account.

I don't think paddy's win at all.  I'd be surprised if the ASA would think their advert was fair.   I'd say it was misleading as it puts the fifth odds in the small print.  At least Victor is clearer, even if they have engaged in the bigger con.  The advert is as bad as those adverts during cheltenham when they said that their offer was open to all the riff raf (or whatever term they used), when it clearly wasn't open to those that Paddy's restrict. 

Why would the ASA even get involved?  They say they are paying out on 7 places.  There is no law to state they have to say what the place terms are for 7 places?  Yes traditionally it is 1/4 the odds but nowhere is that written in stone/law and there is no chance that Paddy would ever be fined for this advert.   It is not misleading in any shape or form imo.  I think they have pulled off a master stroke of sucking in wagons who will love the 7 places but be too clueless to realise the downsides of the offer.

[BigAdz]

Its that time.

You knew it was coming.

Every day for the past two weeks when I look at the home page of Oddschecker I see Many Clouds has been one of the best backed horses that day. Each day the top price remains 8-1.

I surely don't need to give you my reasons, unless you want an Ant like War and Peace. Suffice to say, i thought he performance at Kelso last time was as good as anything he has done before, and I think he is a better horse than last year

Come Saturday he is surely 5-1 at best.

Lets get that £50 ew on now please.

[TightEnd]

we don't have access to any of the 5 place books at 8-1

these are

skybet
bet365
betfair sportsbook
boyle
paddy
betbright

i could get 4 places at 8-1 with betfred.

the only 6 places book has ducked it completely 13-2 victor

it will have to be betfred 4 places unless any help is forthcoming

might 5-6 places be more widespread by friday, with the main price move likely to be saturday morning?

[doubleup]

,

[BigAdz]

Tikay wont like it, but a mad rush on Brentford for relegation.

As low as 7-1 with Hills, but Corals a massive stand out 40-1

[cish n fhips]

Hideki Matsuyama..

Although ive backed him for the win and places i think ive possibly
found a gem of a bet.
Hes playing well and won in pheonix in Feb
He pretty much floats about in the top 20 in the Rankings.(14th atm)
5th in the masters last year.

So Ladjokes and Choral have him at 6/5 for top 20 finish

Happy for views of others but id suggest £50 and add another option for the book.

GL Guys.

[Nakor]

we don't have access to any of the 5 place books at 8-1

these are

skybet
bet365
betfair sportsbook
boyle
paddy
betbright

i could get 4 places at 8-1 with betfred.

the only 6 places book has ducked it completely 13-2 victor

it will have to be betfred 4 places unless any help is forthcoming

might 5-6 places be more widespread by friday, with the main price move likely to be saturday morning?

I can do 50 E/W on Betfair if required.