Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

Now 33-1 biggest, 25-1 away from VC.

There's a chance this price is completely wrong. They don't have betfair to copy and this is effectively one person's opinion. One goes up, the rest all follow on these markets. No way of saying he shouldn't even be favourite.

[TightEnd]

up to tikay if he wants it on thread

NGolo Kante Premier League PFA Player of the Year
66/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £670.00

i think mahrez probably wins but i couldnt have kante 66/1 given his pivotal role.

[tikay]

up to tikay if he wants it on thread

NGolo Kante Premier League PFA Player of the Year
66/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £670.00

i think mahrez probably wins but i couldnt have kante 66/1 given his pivotal role.

Fine by me. Doubt he'll win, but at that price I think it's a bet.

[Dekka]

I've not contributed on here other than by donating to a couple of Mere's tipping competitions but thought I'd let you know that there's a horse running tonight that is fully expected to win by the stable.  Sadly the money's already come for it and the real value may have gone already although I expect it to shorten up further still through the day.

William Knight's string are in fine fettle, I follow him closely as the stable is less than a mile or so from me.  He trains from Lady Herries' old yard in Angmering, West Sussex - she was a real shrewdie and when her money was down invariably they did the business.  Nice lady too, was married to Colin Cowdrey.  Her father, the Duke Of Norfolk, paid a contribution towards  my education as my dad used to work for him.  Anyway, I digress.

Stable staff tell me that Exalted has really benefited from his recent 74 day break and that he's a "different horse" from the one that had three runs in January (2 wins, a 2nd and a 4th).  I'm hoping he's now Dancing Brave!

He's still available at 3/1 in places having opened at 9/2 earlier.  

Not really sure at the price that he should be my first recommendation to TFT but felt it would be rude of me not to pass on what I've been told.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/kempton/18:50/winner/bet-history/exalted/today

[Chompy]

Evening Standard have a poll. There's obv going to be a London bias though.

Vardy 6%
Kane 21%
Payet 31%
Mahrez 23%
Ozil 15%
Kante 4%

[Chompy]

Like Exalted here.

The only confirmed front-runner in a field full of hold-up horses, and Knight knows the time of day.

[sonour]

If they have no gamble but want to freeroll a nice juicy win, back o0.5 goals at 1/25 with first bet then inplay bet 0-0

Chance to win £500 risk free

surely its better to do no goalscorer than 0 0

Probably not in this case since they often offer crap in-play odds. Tonight the 0-0 was still 13.0 but the no first GS immediately went down to 11.0 from the pre-match's 13.0

Half time 0-0 sweats!

I would never do either bet.  If it isn't against the T and Cs, it looks exactly the sort of behaviour that could cost you the best gambling account you have. 

Agree with Doobs. You deserve to lose your 365 account if you do this.

[TightEnd]

I've not contributed on here other than by donating to a couple of Mere's tipping competitions but thought I'd let you know that there's a horse running tonight that is fully expected to win by the stable.  Sadly the money's already come for it and the real value may have gone already although I expect it to shorten up further still through the day.

William Knight's string are in fine fettle, I follow him closely as the stable is less than a mile or so from me.  He trains from Lady Herries' old yard in Angmering, West Sussex - she was a real shrewdie and when her money was down invariably they did the business.  Nice lady too, was married to Colin Cowdrey.  Her father, the Duke Of Norfolk, paid a contribution towards  my education as my dad used to work for him.  Anyway, I digress.

Stable staff tell me that Exalted has really benefited from his recent 74 day break and that he's a "different horse" from the one that had three runs in January (2 wins, a 2nd and a 4th).  I'm hoping he's now Dancing Brave!

He's still available at 3/1 in places having opened at 9/2 earlier.  

Not really sure at the price that he should be my first recommendation to TFT but felt it would be rude of me not to pass on what I've been told.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/kempton/18:50/winner/bet-history/exalted/today

Andy isn't it? we've spoken on twitter

I've done £15 at 3-1 as its your first post, by convention and and hopefully you'll post more in due course

[arbboy]

If they have no gamble but want to freeroll a nice juicy win, back o0.5 goals at 1/25 with first bet then inplay bet 0-0

Chance to win £500 risk free

surely its better to do no goalscorer than 0 0

Probably not in this case since they often offer crap in-play odds. Tonight the 0-0 was still 13.0 but the no first GS immediately went down to 11.0 from the pre-match's 13.0

Half time 0-0 sweats!

I would never do either bet.  If it isn't against the T and Cs, it looks exactly the sort of behaviour that could cost you the best gambling account you have.  

Agree with Doobs. You deserve to lose your 365 account if you do this.

Can't see why 365 would be that bothered.  The ev you have on the two bets would be pretty similar to using the offer with 2 totally separate bets.  Would also be amazed if they would find every account that did this for the micro stakes involved on the offer.

You are having a terrible first bet and a terrible second bet.  You are turning a potential £50 free cash into around £30 in cash.  Hardly sets you out as a shrewdie imo.  I would be far more concerned with people who found a way of turning £50 free bet into £50 of ev long term than those who set fire to half of it.

[BorntoBubble]

In fact it may even be a good thing for your account.

365 are the shrewd of the shrewd. Nearly everyone of my mug gambling mates look for ways of locking in a return rather than maximising EV of an offer.

A lot of these people tend to bet say sub £20 on a Saturday yet for this offer they will deposit £100 and then win say £110 if just 2 in 10 of those people dont just instant withdraw and gamble through with that money then i am sure they are delighted. I bet there is a hell of a lot that leave the money in the account, you would be surprised how little people could find the withdraw button.

Anyway, if i was on the B365 marketing team i dont think i would be unhappy attracting the "no risk" punters, yes some will just instant withdraw but the others are a gold mine.

[arbboy]

In fact it may even be a good thing for your account.

365 are the shrewd of the shrewd. Nearly everyone of my mug gambling mates look for ways of locking in a return rather than maximising EV of an offer.

A lot of these people tend to bet say sub £20 on a Saturday yet for this offer they will deposit £100 and then win say £110 if just 2 in 10 of those people dont just instant withdraw and gamble through with that money then i am sure they are delighted. I bet there is a hell of a lot that leave the money in the account, you would be surprised how little people could find the withdraw button.

Anyway, if i was on the B365 marketing team i dont think i would be unhappy attracting the "no risk" punters, yes some will just instant withdraw but the others are a gold mine.

You would be amazed how big a % of punters have actually ever tried to withdraw never mind actually looked to see how to withdraw.

[Rod Paradise]

If they have no gamble but want to freeroll a nice juicy win, back o0.5 goals at 1/25 with first bet then inplay bet 0-0

Chance to win £500 risk free

surely its better to do no goalscorer than 0 0

Probably not in this case since they often offer crap in-play odds. Tonight the 0-0 was still 13.0 but the no first GS immediately went down to 11.0 from the pre-match's 13.0

Half time 0-0 sweats!

I would never do either bet.  If it isn't against the T and Cs, it looks exactly the sort of behaviour that could cost you the best gambling account you have. 

Agree with Doobs. You deserve to lose your 365 account if you do this.

Can't see why 365 would be that bothered.  The ev you have on the two bets would be pretty similar to using the offer with 2 totally separate bets.  Would also be amazed if they would find every account that did this for the micro stakes involved on the offer.

From discussions on a football forum about this it seems the only ones to be refused promotions by BET365 were those who deposited £100, played a no risk combo & withdrew again, even then they got away with a few before it happened. They didn't lose their account though.

[arbboy]

If they have no gamble but want to freeroll a nice juicy win, back o0.5 goals at 1/25 with first bet then inplay bet 0-0

Chance to win £500 risk free

surely its better to do no goalscorer than 0 0

Probably not in this case since they often offer crap in-play odds. Tonight the 0-0 was still 13.0 but the no first GS immediately went down to 11.0 from the pre-match's 13.0

Half time 0-0 sweats!

I would never do either bet.  If it isn't against the T and Cs, it looks exactly the sort of behaviour that could cost you the best gambling account you have. 

Agree with Doobs. You deserve to lose your 365 account if you do this.

Can't see why 365 would be that bothered.  The ev you have on the two bets would be pretty similar to using the offer with 2 totally separate bets.  Would also be amazed if they would find every account that did this for the micro stakes involved on the offer.

From discussions on a football forum about this it seems the only ones to be refused promotions by BET365 were those who deposited £100, played a no risk combo & withdrew again, even then they got away with a few before it happened. They didn't lose their account though.

You can do this via betfair though (make it no risk) and not set fire to half of the ev of the £50 in free bets by taking 365's terrible prices on both bets.  I obviously don't get the chance to take part in this offer but i am sure i could find a better option of turning the £50 free bet into more hard cash each time long term than doing this over 0.5 and 0-0 route at terrible prices.

[BorntoBubble]

If they have no gamble but want to freeroll a nice juicy win, back o0.5 goals at 1/25 with first bet then inplay bet 0-0

Chance to win £500 risk free

surely its better to do no goalscorer than 0 0

Probably not in this case since they often offer crap in-play odds. Tonight the 0-0 was still 13.0 but the no first GS immediately went down to 11.0 from the pre-match's 13.0

Half time 0-0 sweats!

I would never do either bet.  If it isn't against the T and Cs, it looks exactly the sort of behaviour that could cost you the best gambling account you have. 

Agree with Doobs. You deserve to lose your 365 account if you do this.

Can't see why 365 would be that bothered.  The ev you have on the two bets would be pretty similar to using the offer with 2 totally separate bets.  Would also be amazed if they would find every account that did this for the micro stakes involved on the offer.

From discussions on a football forum about this it seems the only ones to be refused promotions by BET365 were those who deposited £100, played a no risk combo & withdrew again, even then they got away with a few before it happened. They didn't lose their account though.

You can do this via betfair though (make it no risk) and not set fire to half of the ev of the £50 in free bets by taking 365's terrible prices on both bets.  I obviously don't get the chance to take part in this offer but i am sure i could find a better option of turning the £50 free bet into more hard cash each time long term than doing this over 0.5 and 0-0 route at terrible prices.

But Arb, most of us are lucky enough to live in a different world.

Some people will deposit £100 on a credit card for this offer and not realise they will lose more in chargers an interest than what they will make doing the offer. Let alone have say £200-£300 in desposible money to lay on betfair.

The point re withdrawing and not knowing how i was trying to make above, but failed!

[arbboy]

If they have no gamble but want to freeroll a nice juicy win, back o0.5 goals at 1/25 with first bet then inplay bet 0-0

Chance to win £500 risk free

surely its better to do no goalscorer than 0 0

Probably not in this case since they often offer crap in-play odds. Tonight the 0-0 was still 13.0 but the no first GS immediately went down to 11.0 from the pre-match's 13.0

Half time 0-0 sweats!

I would never do either bet.  If it isn't against the T and Cs, it looks exactly the sort of behaviour that could cost you the best gambling account you have.  

Agree with Doobs. You deserve to lose your 365 account if you do this.

Can't see why 365 would be that bothered.  The ev you have on the two bets would be pretty similar to using the offer with 2 totally separate bets.  Would also be amazed if they would find every account that did this for the micro stakes involved on the offer.

From discussions on a football forum about this it seems the only ones to be refused promotions by BET365 were those who deposited £100, played a no risk combo & withdrew again, even then they got away with a few before it happened. They didn't lose their account though.

You can do this via betfair though (make it no risk) and not set fire to half of the ev of the £50 in free bets by taking 365's terrible prices on both bets.  I obviously don't get the chance to take part in this offer but i am sure i could find a better option of turning the £50 free bet into more hard cash each time long term than doing this over 0.5 and 0-0 route at terrible prices.

But Arb, most of us are lucky enough to live in a different world.

Some people will deposit £100 on a credit card for this offer and not realise they will lose more in chargers an interest than what they will make doing the offer. Let alone have say £200-£300 in desposible money to lay on betfair.

The point re withdrawing and not knowing how i was trying to make above, but failed!

I totally agree with you.  In which case closing their account to 1% will make absolutely no difference to their trading activity.  They will still be able to get all their bets on as usual on a 1% 365 account on horses and football.  This is equally why i would want to keep laying their business providing they are giving other business and not just doing the offer and withdrawing.  If you do this in any shape or form i imagine your account won't last too long whether you go totally risk free with 365 or not.