Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

asking anyone and everyone for their thoughts.

not always possible to reach a consensus but if i have multiple views i can take an informed decision

[Ledders]

Will Grigg 500/1. Bookies are terrified.

[lee h]

Skimmed but 99% certain
That 'under 3 1/2 total rounds means you must win before round 4 commences
And that you don't have the first 1m 30s of round 4
Lee

[DMorgan]

Having a look at Wales for the Euros

Wales scored 11 goals in 10 qualifying games, 7 of which were against either Israel or Andorra and they are drawn in group B with England, Russia and Slovakia

England conceded only 3 goals in qualifying, Russia only 5 in a qualifying group that contained Austria and Sweden

Slovakia is where it gets a little more messy, they conceded 8 in 10 qualifiers and 3 of those goals were scored by Spain but they did allow 2 vs Luxembourg.

I think that 364 have this about right at 14/1 so at 16/1 I think theres some wiggle room in there with BMU


Rec £50 No Welsh Goalscorer at 16/1 with BMU

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/wales-euro-2016-specials/top-goalscorer

thoughts please

Not sure if the invite for thoughts is just to the sages that make this such an interesting board to follow; but I'm going to chance my arm with 2p's worth.

Unless Gareth Bale gets injured in the lead up to Champions League final on 29 May (or indeed during the match), then I'd be concerned about him producing a moment of world class skill against any one of the 3 teams in the group. Drawing a foul in the penalty area would be enough. Is there some intel that suggests he's carrying an injury into the final?

No injury news, would be good to get some input from the regular football bettors re what sort of price an underdog would usually be at a neutral venue to score no goals. If they're 6/4 to not score in each game then we have a bet at 16s.

Looking at the individual prices for Wales under 0.5 goals in each of their three games, even if we take the three best prices available (betway, spoils and tote) we get 15/1 the treble

[baldock92]

I personally think De Bruyne @40s is a no bet. No opinions on the Wales no goals bet as I've rarely watched them.

[exstream]

Skimmed but 99% certain
That 'under 3 1/2 total rounds means you must win before round 4 commences
And that you don't have the first 1m 30s of round 4
Lee

99% certain you're wrong

[McGlashan]

Skimmed but 99% certain
That 'under 3 1/2 total rounds means you must win before round 4 commences
And that you don't have the first 1m 30s of round 4
Lee

There are 2 different methods. Oddschecker complicates matters by lumping it all in together on one page. Sky Bwin and Ladddies use even rounds, that's within 3 rounds. If both fighters emerge for round 4 the bet is a loser. Most firms use the traditional Vegas "and a half" lines.

Folks who began betting with the Sky/Laddies may not realise their in the minority.

[Nakor]

Having a look at Wales for the Euros

Wales scored 11 goals in 10 qualifying games, 7 of which were against either Israel or Andorra and they are drawn in group B with England, Russia and Slovakia

England conceded only 3 goals in qualifying, Russia only 5 in a qualifying group that contained Austria and Sweden

Slovakia is where it gets a little more messy, they conceded 8 in 10 qualifiers and 3 of those goals were scored by Spain but they did allow 2 vs Luxembourg.

I think that 364 have this about right at 14/1 so at 16/1 I think theres some wiggle room in there with BMU


Rec £50 No Welsh Goalscorer at 16/1 with BMU

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/wales-euro-2016-specials/top-goalscorer

thoughts please

Really like this bet.  Offers a little value when using the stats to back up the prices.

[bergeroo]

I suppose if I bet on this market I would wait for the lineup to come out for the first match and then insta bet on whoever starts up front.

Seems to be a mix of Bale and Ramsey on pens in previous matches. Not really sure on this one.

 

Having a look at Wales for the Euros

Wales scored 11 goals in 10 qualifying games, 7 of which were against either Israel or Andorra and they are drawn in group B with England, Russia and Slovakia

England conceded only 3 goals in qualifying, Russia only 5 in a qualifying group that contained Austria and Sweden

Slovakia is where it gets a little more messy, they conceded 8 in 10 qualifiers and 3 of those goals were scored by Spain but they did allow 2 vs Luxembourg.

I think that 364 have this about right at 14/1 so at 16/1 I think theres some wiggle room in there with BMU


Rec £50 No Welsh Goalscorer at 16/1 with BMU

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/wales-euro-2016-specials/top-goalscorer

thoughts please

Not sure if the invite for thoughts is just to the sages that make this such an interesting board to follow; but I'm going to chance my arm with 2p's worth.

Unless Gareth Bale gets injured in the lead up to Champions League final on 29 May (or indeed during the match), then I'd be concerned about him producing a moment of world class skill against any one of the 3 teams in the group. Drawing a foul in the penalty area would be enough. Is there some intel that suggests he's carrying an injury into the final?

No injury news, would be good to get some input from the regular football bettors re what sort of price an underdog would usually be at a neutral venue to score no goals. If they're 6/4 to not score in each game then we have a bet at 16s.

Looking at the individual prices for Wales under 0.5 goals in each of their three games, even if we take the three best prices available (betway, spoils and tote) we get 15/1 the treble

[McGlashan]

Any love for Kevin De Bruyne top scorer at 40s with most firms?

Coming off the back of a successful first season with us, he won player of the month 4 times, scored plenty of goals and is back to full fitness after his layoff around Easter. With Hazard and Lukaku both out of form, a lot might be expected of KDB to step up to the plate. Belgium don't have the easiest group but big things are expected of this talented bunch of players, and Fellaini.

He got 5 in qualifying fwiw, but that included some pub teams.

Alternatively, he's 20s to be player of the tournament at betfair. If Belgium go far, KDB is gonna have a big say in it with goals and assists.

Back at the world cup Doobs reminded me how Belgium's goals are very well spread out. Seldom does a player score 2+ goals in a game. It remained that way throughout qualifying where the midfield accounted for nearly all the goals:

Hazard  5
KDB      5
Fellaini   5
Mertens 3
Naingg   2
Depoir   1
Origi      1
Chadli    1
Benteke 1
Lukaku   0

With expectation of their goals being spread out you could look at taking on Lukaku in the top Belgian scorer market http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/belgium-euro-2016-specials/top-goalscorer

[bergeroo]

Was just about to write that I'd be happy to take on Lukaku in the top Belgian market with KDB rather than the overall scorer market. 5/1 for him or Hazard seems decent to me as they seem likely to start in the wide slots of a front three or Hazard in behind the frontman and on pens. Lukaku didn't even play a lot of the qualifiers and Origi and Benteke are also capable players who could take his pitch time.

They have a tricky group and a potentially tough last 16 tie, so could only play four matches - of course they have an excellent side so could go on and win the whole thing.

Suggest 5/1 KDB top Belgian scorer

Edit
Cant believe I'm writing this but Fellaini 25/1? 15 goals in 65 internationals

[McGlashan]

Was just about to write that I'd be happy to take on Lukaku in the top Belgian market with KDB rather than the overall scorer market. 5/1 for him or Hazard seems decent to me as they seem likely to start in the wide slots of a front three or Hazard in behind the frontman and on pens. Lukaku didn't even play a lot of the qualifiers and Origi and Benteke are also capable players who could take his pitch time.

They have a tricky group and a potentially tough last 16 tie, so could only play four matches - of course they have an excellent side so could go on and win the whole thing.

Suggest 5/1 KDB top Belgian scorer

Edit
Cant believe I'm writing this but Fellaini 25/1? 15 goals in 65 internationals

25-1 as the most advanced CM is not absurd. It sounds fine if you say it out loud without using his actual name

[hhyftrftdr]

Didn't even consider the top Belgium scorer market haha that does sound like a better shout than outright top scorer.

I think I prefer him at 20s as player of the tournament than 40s to top the scoring charts; he is an assist machine who scores goals and a very influential player overall. Only in a couple of games did he go missing at City this season (and that was when the team were playing shite), way more often than not he would carry us. A lot will hinge on how far Belgium get obviously, and their path is tricky, but should they get to the final then they will have earned it. I'm sure KDB will be very aware that Guardiola will be watching him like a hawk as well.

Maybe I should remove my rose tinted specs but it feels like its all coming together for him and now is his time.

[bergeroo]

Lukaku has been fit for most of the past two seasons, right? Therefore available for the national team...

Looking back he has been on the bench for quite a few matches with Benteke/Origi preferred. With Origi agruably in better form right now, he is no means certain to start.

Think he has to be taken on in this market with someone. Seems bizarre that with 0 goals in qualifying Lukaku is 2/1 favourite for this.

Am I missing something?

[hhyftrftdr]

Lukaku has been fit for most of the past two seasons, right? Therefore available for the national team...

Looking back he has been on the bench for quite a few matches with Benteke/Origi preferred. With Origi agruably in better form right now, he is no means certain to start.

Think he has to be taken on in this market with someone. Seems bizarre that with 0 goals in qualifying Lukaku is 2/1 favourite for this.

Am I missing something?

Does seem weird. Also gonna be a lot of speculation surrounding his future this summer as well. Apparently his father has said today that he expects him to sign for united or Bayern Munich. How this might play on his mind is up in the air, but it can't be ideal preparation for games.

2/1 seems way too skinny given the above and their is much better value scattered amongst his team mates.....even Fellaini. Eurgh, I need to shower now.