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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16432119 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #118695 on: June 16, 2016, 03:39:50 PM »

Calling arbboy for thoughts on journeyman keeper.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #118696 on: June 16, 2016, 04:04:59 PM »

Other thread. 

IN other news.  Muz hoses up 2-0 and faces another Brit in 1/4 finals tomorrow at queens.
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Doobs
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« Reply #118697 on: June 16, 2016, 04:47:47 PM »

its a £25 max under the price boost


1m 4f Fillies Grp 2 Stks
Outright Betting
   Architecture   4/1   
Total stake   25.00
Estimated return   125.00
Full stake   25.00
Full estimated return   125.00

Ran like the oaks left a mark.   
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #118698 on: June 16, 2016, 04:49:50 PM »

In other news.  Nobody offering a fifth first 3 in the European grand prix at the weekend.  

Edit couldn't resist a small bet on Alonso at 500/1.  Third first 2.  Is a bit of a street circuit and it might just rain...
« Last Edit: June 16, 2016, 04:53:17 PM by Doobs » Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #118699 on: June 16, 2016, 04:53:39 PM »

In other news.  Nobody offering a fifth first 3 in the European grand prix at the weekend.  

Edit couldn't resist a small bet on Alonso at 500/1.  Third first 2.  Is a bit of a street circuit and it might just rain...

Sad
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TightEnd
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« Reply #118700 on: June 16, 2016, 04:58:35 PM »

Baku will be really interesting

street circuit but second longest on the calendar behind spa

also a very long straight with high end top speed vital

tough one to call
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« Reply #118701 on: June 16, 2016, 06:00:48 PM »

i have found myself disagreeing with you on the draw all week. particularly in the first yesterday i thought the draw low numbers was a big advantage. i backed thikryat (spelling) and it was the only horse drawn high to get anywhere the low numbers

lady aurelia could have been drawn in the car park and she would have won

that race apart, the jockeys in all the other races moved across from high draws towards the far rail through races

Just because they are crossing doesn't mean it is quickest.  I don't think we are really disagreeing, it is clear that the low numbers are doing most winning.  They may well just be finishing well beaten as they have run an extra half furlong crossing a wide track.   The last was dominated by high numbers despite them crossing the track. 

Amyway I think it will be very interesting if a decent group stays near side and runs on the fresh ground.   

Draw bias my arse
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #118702 on: June 16, 2016, 06:15:24 PM »

Emma Spencer handled Michael Buckley pretty well there Cheesy

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« Reply #118703 on: June 16, 2016, 06:52:38 PM »

i have found myself disagreeing with you on the draw all week. particularly in the first yesterday i thought the draw low numbers was a big advantage. i backed thikryat (spelling) and it was the only horse drawn high to get anywhere the low numbers

lady aurelia could have been drawn in the car park and she would have won

that race apart, the jockeys in all the other races moved across from high draws towards the far rail through races

Just because they are crossing doesn't mean it is quickest.  I don't think we are really disagreeing, it is clear that the low numbers are doing most winning.  They may well just be finishing well beaten as they have run an extra half furlong crossing a wide track.   The last was dominated by high numbers despite them crossing the track. 

Amyway I think it will be very interesting if a decent group stays near side and runs on the fresh ground.   

Draw bias my arse

The winner came up that strip of fresh ground, eventually. Smiley
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« Reply #118704 on: June 16, 2016, 10:51:28 PM »

De Sousa grinded out another winner at Lingfield after Ascot this evening. Going to be really annoying if he somehow doesn't win this.
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Peter-27
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« Reply #118705 on: June 17, 2016, 12:26:38 AM »



FTAO Peter


Can't tell if that's sarcasm because I should be better at stake sizing by now - or a genuine comment. I'm going to assume the latter, so thank you very much Smiley

That was in reply to sonour.

sonour does not really do sarcasm, Peter, & certainly does not "lolzz" the regulars here, so I think you can safely assume she was being genuinely complimentary.

Keep the stuff coming, the debate on bets for this race in the last few days have benefitted many of us.

Correct Tikay,

Peter, you have handled yourself very, very well on here. I'm not often impressed by 24 year olds.


Snap.

This weekend I feel like I've made a number of friends and foes on this small community, and I have felt somewhat pressured to defend myself, despite my strong record to date. Therefore, these words mean a lot, thank you very much Smiley

Peter

I don't think you have made any "foes" on here. I think you need to accept others will sometimes have opinions that differ from yours, and sometimes they will be right.

If you openly challenge them, the reply may seem like you have created a problem. Most of the good folk here don't hold grudges, and are quite happy to debate in a grown up way, so keep giving us your opinions, but just think about how you would react if someone were to challenge your opinion, when you post your reply to others thought on your sport.

Keep up the fantastic work.



FTAO Peter


Can't tell if that's sarcasm because I should be better at stake sizing by now - or a genuine comment. I'm going to assume the latter, so thank you very much Smiley

That was in reply to sonour.

sonour does not really do sarcasm, Peter, & certainly does not "lolzz" the regulars here, so I think you can safely assume she was being genuinely complimentary.

Keep the stuff coming, the debate on bets for this race in the last few days have benefitted many of us.

Correct Tikay,

Peter, you have handled yourself very, very well on here. I'm not often impressed by 24 year olds.


Snap.

This weekend I feel like I've made a number of friends and foes on this small community, and I have felt somewhat pressured to defend myself, despite my strong record to date. Therefore, these words mean a lot, thank you very much Smiley

Peter

I don't think you have made any "foes" on here. I think you need to accept others will sometimes have opinions that differ from yours, and sometimes they will be right.

If you openly challenge them, the reply may seem like you have created a problem. Most of the good folk here don't hold grudges, and are quite happy to debate in a grown up way, so keep giving us your opinions, but just think about how you would react if someone were to challenge your opinion, when you post your reply to others thought on your sport.

Keep up the fantastic work.

Wise words from Adz there Peter.

I don't think you have any "foes" here at all.

I for one have been extremely impressed by the depth of your knowledge and analysis re. F1 as are all of us I would imagine, and your ROI speaks for itself.

Keep it coming please.

Noted. Thanks Smiley



FTAO Peter


Can't tell if that's sarcasm because I should be better at stake sizing by now - or a genuine comment. I'm going to assume the latter, so thank you very much Smiley

That was in reply to sonour.

sonour does not really do sarcasm, Peter, & certainly does not "lolzz" the regulars here, so I think you can safely assume she was being genuinely complimentary.

Keep the stuff coming, the debate on bets for this race in the last few days have benefitted many of us.

Correct Tikay,

Peter, you have handled yourself very, very well on here. I'm not often impressed by 24 year olds.


Snap.

This weekend I feel like I've made a number of friends and foes on this small community, and I have felt somewhat pressured to defend myself, despite my strong record to date. Therefore, these words mean a lot, thank you very much Smiley

Not sure why you need to use the word "foe".  I simply pointed out that you shot down a 150-1 each way shot instantly.  We shouldn't be results orientated but obviously it was value and it was a selection which won.  If that makes me your enemy then fair enough.

I wasn't talking about you specifically. However, I have to disagree with "but obviously it was value", for already documented reasons. As I'm sure you know, the result is irrelevant. Although I am delighted it won Cheesy
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Peter-27
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« Reply #118706 on: June 17, 2016, 12:45:23 AM »

Baku will be really interesting

street circuit but second longest on the calendar behind spa

also a very long straight with high end top speed vital

tough one to call

Yep, I'm massively looking forward to this race.

The development of the Formula E series has allowed the FIA to experiment with track design & layout, and we're seeing that directly translate into F1 this weekend.

This track has some unique features;

- The longest straight to ever feature in F1 (2.2 km) - technically we should say the longest flat out section, there are a few kinks, but it's 100% full throttle.
- Extremely challenging. In places this circuit is half the width of Monaco. Turn eight & nine are particularly insane. I think it's inevitable we're going to see a pile-up on the opening lap in this section, just like we did with the Monaco Formula E layout.
- This is also the lowest race ever held, as the track is below sea level. This will have a positive impact on the engines.

It is also worth noting that track temperatures are expected to be well over 60 degrees, with different sectors suiting different teams quite drastically.

Honestly, I have no idea what will happen this weekend - and the simulations run basically have no convergence what so ever.

The only bet I'm going to suggest at this stage is:

Practice One, Top Three Finish - Daniel Ricciardo
@ 5/2 with BeeWin. Suggest £20. Random price really, should be way closer to EVS given that we don't know what the pecking order will be at this event with no prior data to go on.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2016, 12:47:16 AM by Peter-27 » Logged

MereNovice
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« Reply #118707 on: June 17, 2016, 02:46:49 AM »

i took what betfred would allow

WTA Mallorca Open
Tournament Outright
   Cirstea, Sorana   18/1   
Total stake   13.85
Estimated return    263.15
Full stake   13.85
Full estimated return   263.15

Without a match being played in her half of the draw, Cirstea is now best priced 8/1.

Her match against Jankovic will be played not before 6pm but as it is the fourth match on court might be rather later. Her price for this match has shortened considerably too.
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« Reply #118708 on: June 17, 2016, 09:29:05 AM »

I heard (I think it was Johnny Herbert) on Sky last weekend say that he thinks the Red Bulls might lose up to a second on this long straight in race trim, when the Mercs & Ferraris have got all their dials turned up to eleven.  A second? Blimey

Not sure that this will play out during P1 though.

Should be a good session this, none of the drivers know the circuit so it'll be interesting to see how team mates compare at the end.  Got my eye on Palmer v Magnussen after last week's debacle.

Anyone else thinking that there's nowhere near enough sport on TV this weekend? ;-)
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« Reply #118709 on: June 17, 2016, 09:42:18 AM »

i took what betfred would allow

WTA Mallorca Open
Tournament Outright
   Cirstea, Sorana   18/1   
Total stake   13.85
Estimated return    263.15
Full stake   13.85
Full estimated return   263.15

Without a match being played in her half of the draw, Cirstea is now best priced 8/1.

Her match against Jankovic will be played not before 6pm but as it is the fourth match on court might be rather later. Her price for this match has shortened considerably too.

And Jankovic is now out to 8/1 in the overalls.  I know we are all on, but it would be kind of funny if Jankovic just tonks her today. 
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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