Tips for Tikay

[JohnCharver]

Poland are 11/2 to win group C but face ukraine who are already out vs germany playing northern ireland who will be scrapping for all they are worth/ may put 6 cbs on the pitch again. Germany have a goal headstart but think theres a chance ukraine take their ball home but zero chance of NI throwing in the towel. There was also a suggestion on the euro thread that germany may deliberately manipulate themselves into a different half of draw, altho this would be more risky when NI beating them would leave them 3rd.

[bergeroo]

Presumably the Poland manager will have also taken a look at the draw and be happy to not push on for a big goal difference, finish second in the group and face Switz or Romania?

[JohnCharver]

Presumably the Poland manager will have also taken a look at the draw and be happy to not push on for a big goal difference, finish second in the group and face Switz or Romania?

If it comes to it yes but cant imagine they are going to set up with the attitude other than just to beat ukraine, they arent a germany where they will think tactically imo they will keep it simple and look to win and if ukraine capitulate theyll look to finish them and lewandowski will be very keen to get going in the tournament? Just thought poland end up top here more than 11/2 suggests.

[Peter-27]

Okay, pre-Saturday European GP bet suggestions:

I love races like this where there's lots of data that initially seems haphazard and confusing, until you delve a little deeper; always provides lots of value

Pole Position - Nico Rosberg @ 7/2 on the exchange (3/1 elsewhere is okay too). I think Lewis Hamilton is a shoe-in for pole position this weekend. However, 7/2 on Nico is too high given that one mistake or poorly timed yellow flag/red flag/VSC could affect the proceedings. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/european-grand-prix/pole-position

Top Three Finish - Sergio Perez @ 7/1 with paddipower. With Red Bull and Ferrari apparently lacking pace at this circuit, this looks more probable than possible to me. Can't quite believe the bookies are offering 7/1 still. Suggest £50. Also, Valtteri Bottas @ 3/1 is a good spot too, and it's really between him and Sergio. Suggest £25. FYI, yes, I have learned from last weekend, I did check the race win market, however they're only going top two EW. That being said ..

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/european-grand-prix/top-3-finish

Race Winner - Sergio Perez @ 80/1 & Valtteri Bottas @ 38/1 on the exchange. Just in case the two Mercedes drivers decide to take each other off .. suggest £5 on each.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/european-grand-prix/winner

Points Finish - Romain Grosjean @ 9/2 with vicktor. Romain has looked comfortable in Baku so far this weekend. For this to happen, he does need a few retirements up ahead, but he will be helped by the fact that both McLaren drivers will finish near the back. The second half of their races will be substantially off the pace because they don't have a good enough fuel efficiency to complete the race distance at anywhere near top speed. Suggest £20. Also, Rio Haryanto @ 25/1 with viktor and betfrod. I haven't gone crazy, don't worry. Rio was actually pretty quick out there today. If we get the expected turn eight pile-up, and Rio can avoid the chaos, he might well be in a strong position come the end of the race. 25/1 is too high. Suggest £5.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/european-grand-prix/points-finish

Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 5/4 with vicktor and paddipower & Carlos Sainz @ 5/1 with vicktor and hills. The prices are too high as both drivers look very strong. Don't understand who is setting these prices, and if they have any knowledge of F1. Suggest £25 on each.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/european-grand-prix/top-6-finish

Fastest Lap - Lewis Hamilton @ 13/8 with vicktors/ladsbrokes and others. Mercedes have a sufficient margin here that if they don't take each other out, one of them will get the fastest lap. My money is on Lewis, but there's nothing stopping you doing Nico also for a safer position. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/european-grand-prix/fastest-lap

Winning Margin - Over 10 Seconds @ 2/1 with 366. Field spread here is massive, more than I have ever seen it before. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/european-grand-prix/winning-margin

Not To Finish The Race - Lewis Hamilton @ 6/1 366 and Hills. I saw something in practice today with Lewis that set alarm bells off. He was struggling to get the front of his car turned in to corners, and that's not traditionally how he likes his car set-up. Despite being the fastest out there, I think he's unhappy with his set-up and struggling with chronic understeer. I can see him making an error. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/european-grand-prix/not-to-finish-the-race

Sorry for the volume of bets, these will take some time to get on .. I did say there would be value though! Feeling very good about the race from a betting perspective.

[Tal]

While Fred is quiet, I thought you might enjoy this.

There's a chess tournament going on in Leuven, where an elite group are playing some rapid play games against each other (that means about half an hour each on the clock).

Nakamura v Carlsen was the big draw in one of the rounds and, well, wahowzers! Carlsen blundered a knight with a move a poor club player would be disappointed to make. I am trying to think of a sporting parallel. Sterling's miss was less surprising. Probably something like where one tennis player has fallen over trying to get the ball back and the other one, standing at the net, just has to hit the ball over the other side but flomps it into the net.

You might not understand chess, but you'll definitely follow the body language. Carlsen typically looks confused and pinches his brow while thinking. About 5 mins in, you see the transformation.
 

[TightEnd]

Okay, pre-Saturday European GP bet suggestions:

I love races like this where there's lots of data that initially seems haphazard and confusing, until you delve a little deeper; always provides lots of value

Pole Position - Nico Rosberg @ 7/2 on the exchange (3/1 elsewhere is okay too). I think Lewis Hamilton is a shoe-in for pole position this weekend. However, 7/2 on Nico is too high given that one mistake or poorly timed yellow flag/red flag/VSC could affect the proceedings. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/european-grand-prix/pole-position

Top Three Finish - Sergio Perez @ 7/1 with paddipower. With Red Bull and Ferrari apparently lacking pace at this circuit, this looks more probable than possible to me. Can't quite believe the bookies are offering 7/1 still. Suggest £50. Also, Valtteri Bottas @ 3/1 is a good spot too, and it's really between him and Sergio. Suggest £25. FYI, yes, I have learned from last weekend, I did check the race win market, however they're only going top two EW. That being said ..

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/european-grand-prix/top-3-finish

Race Winner - Sergio Perez @ 80/1 & Valtteri Bottas @ 38/1 on the exchange. Just in case the two Mercedes drivers decide to take each other off .. suggest £5 on each.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/european-grand-prix/winner

Points Finish - Romain Grosjean @ 9/2 with vicktor. Romain has looked comfortable in Baku so far this weekend. For this to happen, he does need a few retirements up ahead, but he will be helped by the fact that both McLaren drivers will finish near the back. The second half of their races will be substantially off the pace because they don't have a good enough fuel efficiency to complete the race distance at anywhere near top speed. Suggest £20. Also, Rio Haryanto @ 25/1 with viktor and betfrod. I haven't gone crazy, don't worry. Rio was actually pretty quick out there today. If we get the expected turn eight pile-up, and Rio can avoid the chaos, he might well be in a strong position come the end of the race. 25/1 is too high. Suggest £5.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/european-grand-prix/points-finish

Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 5/4 with vicktor and paddipower & Carlos Sainz @ 5/1 with vicktor and hills. The prices are too high as both drivers look very strong. Don't understand who is setting these prices, and if they have any knowledge of F1. Suggest £25 on each.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/european-grand-prix/top-6-finish

Fastest Lap - Lewis Hamilton @ 13/8 with vicktors/ladsbrokes and others. Mercedes have a sufficient margin here that if they don't take each other out, one of them will get the fastest lap. My money is on Lewis, but there's nothing stopping you doing Nico also for a safer position. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/european-grand-prix/fastest-lap

Winning Margin - Over 10 Seconds @ 2/1 with 366. Field spread here is massive, more than I have ever seen it before. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/european-grand-prix/winning-margin

Not To Finish The Race - Lewis Hamilton @ 6/1 366 and Hills. I saw something in practice today with Lewis that set alarm bells off. He was struggling to get the front of his car turned in to corners, and that's not traditionally how he likes his car set-up. Despite being the fastest out there, I think he's unhappy with his set-up and struggling with chronic understeer. I can see him making an error. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/european-grand-prix/not-to-finish-the-race

Sorry for the volume of bets, these will take some time to get on .. I did say there would be value though! Feeling very good about the race from a betting perspective.

for crying out loud.

[TightEnd]

Nico Rosberg European Grand Prix Pole Position
3/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £40.00

5-1 best Perez top 3, i left it two points lower than recommended

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/european-grand-prix/top-3-finish


Valtteri Bottas European Grand Prix Top 3 Finish
3/1
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £80.00

[TightEnd]

Perez 35-1 Bottas 25-1 race winner, well less than recommended prices. i left it

Romain Grosjean European Grand Prix Points Finish
4/1
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £100.00

European Grand Prix: Race Index
Points Finish - Driver (Race)
   Manor - R.Haryanto   25/1   
Total stake   5.00
Estimated return   130.00
Full stake   5.00
Full estimated return   130.00

[TightEnd]

Nico Hulkenberg European Grand Prix Top 6 Finish
6/5
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £44.00


Carlos Sainz European Grand Prix Top 6 Finish
5/1
Total Stake: £25.00
Potential Returns: £150.00

Lewis Hamilton European Grand Prix Fastest Lap
13/8
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £52.50

[TightEnd]

Lewis Hamilton European Grand Prix Not To Finish The Race
6/1
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £140.00

[Peter-27]

Thanks Tighty, will review the ones you couldn't get on after FP3.

The GP2 feature race just finished, and wow .. this track is amazing. That long start finish straight bunched up the cars every single lap due to the slipstream effect, epic stuff. Only 10/22 finished, and we had four or five safety cars, but it was a brilliant race. If the F1 is half as good as that, we're in for a treat!

[nellberg]

If people can get on with both Koral and Patrick, nice sweat for the cricket this arvo, Worcester v Notts, T20 blast, 2pm

Koral over 10.5 sixes, 21/20.
Patrick under 12.5 sixes evens.

Patrick restricted me and I'm an ice cream so not sure how much folk will be able to get on. Unsure how Koral will hold their line. They are the ones out of sync (365 also o/u 12.5) so that could be worth doing on its own if you can't aim for the scoop. Plenty of power hitters on show today (Ali, K-C, Whiteley, Leach for Worcs, Hales, Lumb, Wessels, Christian, Russell, Smith for Notts)

11 or 12 sixes please 

[arbboy]

If people can get on with both Koral and Patrick, nice sweat for the cricket this arvo, Worcester v Notts, T20 blast, 2pm

Koral over 10.5 sixes, 21/20.
Patrick under 12.5 sixes evens.

Patrick restricted me and I'm an ice cream so not sure how much folk will be able to get on. Unsure how Koral will hold their line. They are the ones out of sync (365 also o/u 12.5) so that could be worth doing on its own if you can't aim for the scoop. Plenty of power hitters on show today (Ali, K-C, Whiteley, Leach for Worcs, Hales, Lumb, Wessels, Christian, Russell, Smith for Notts)

11 or 12 sixes please 

Lovely arb with a huge middle as well!  Great spot.

[DropTheHammer]

Well done nellberg. Hills are offering the under 12.5 part at 5/6, betway at 1.83.

[PokerBroker]

Why arent the aussies taking any of the penalty's?  so frustrating.  Cut back the lead, then go for it no?