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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16388336 times)
nellberg
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« Reply #118905 on: June 22, 2016, 10:14:41 AM »

Not a standard "middle" bet, interested to see if its value though.

Just hypothetical at the moment until we see who bats first in the Zim v Ind T20 game. The "wickets lost after 15 overs" bet is only for whichever side bats first. All their markets are priced up as if Zim will bat first (have done in all 5 international games on tour, regardless of which side won the toss). Would this be a good spot if Zimbabwe batted first?

wickets lost after 15 overs - under 5.5 - 4/6

wickets lost in the innings - over 5.5 - 4/5

Looking for a scenario where ideally Zimbabwe are 4 or 5 down after 15 then end up losing 6 or more wickets. Would cost £13.37 to win £86.63, so around 13/2.

1st T20I they were 4 down after 15 and lost 6 by the end, so that would have been a scoop.
2nd T20I they lost their 6th wicket after 14.4 overs, so 3 balls short of a scoop and a small loss.
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BigAdz
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« Reply #118906 on: June 22, 2016, 12:07:35 PM »

Can someone explain to me how Hungary(top of the group, 4pts etc) are 11-1 to beat Portugal tonight?

Dogs, yes, 5-1 maybe, but 11-1?

Portugal have hardly set the world alight thus far, and if they suffer an early goal or Ronaldo is forced into an early exit. Just seems too big.
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« Reply #118907 on: June 22, 2016, 12:17:53 PM »

Can someone explain to me how Hungary(top of the group, 4pts etc) are 11-1 to beat Portugal tonight?

Dogs, yes, 5-1 maybe, but 11-1?

Portugal have hardly set the world alight thus far, and if they suffer an early goal or Ronaldo is forced into an early exit. Just seems too big.

Feels a bit results orientated. Hungary have run good and aren't that great.  Portugal look a bit overated to me, and I thought that before this started, but they should have won at least one of their matches.  Despite that, 11-1 looks too big to me too, and I have backed it.

FWIW winner plays Belgium or Italy, 2nd plays England?  Whatever you think of England, you'd want to be in the Belgium/italy side of the drae
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
TightEnd
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« Reply #118908 on: June 22, 2016, 12:57:41 PM »

Thanks to all those who congratulated me about the F1 success at the weekend.

Motorsport continues its rise up the TFT rankings, overtaking Baseball, and now very close to NFL Smiley

Anyhow .. looking at the F1 championship, I believe now is the time to bet on Ferrari to win the constructors championship. Unlikely to happen, but you never know with the two Mercedes drivers continuing to ruin each others races when they both qualify at the front.

There are some mad prices around on the exchange, but anything at 33/1 + is worth doing. I've done £10 at 81/1 on the exchange. Suggest this for the thread also.

Think this got lost amongst the Euro talk Smiley

they have ruined each other's race once? hardly a pattern

its so unlikely to happen isn't it?

Mercedes are already 81 points ahead, Ferrari are basically 1.5 drivers in the fight as Kimi isn't a heavy enough points scorer and a few tracks apart (singapore maybe) one or other Mercedes is going to be in the hunt to win every race?

i've put it on to be matched as you chased me on it but no idea if its value, i suspect it isn't

anyway, would be a notch for the betting bedpost if you can get a 1.02 shot with £1700 wanting to back them at 1.03 beat!

Ferrari 80 £10.00 £790.00
Ref: 70149798680 Submitted: 12:01 22-Jun-16 

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DungBeetle
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« Reply #118909 on: June 22, 2016, 01:00:37 PM »

Can someone explain to me how Hungary(top of the group, 4pts etc) are 11-1 to beat Portugal tonight?

Dogs, yes, 5-1 maybe, but 11-1?

Portugal have hardly set the world alight thus far, and if they suffer an early goal or Ronaldo is forced into an early exit. Just seems too big.

Do Portugal need to win this or can they progress with a draw?  The 11-1 looks even more appealing if the opponent has to chuck men forward if it's close at the end.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #118910 on: June 22, 2016, 01:06:11 PM »

its the most complicated group

Hungary 4
Portugal 2
Iceland 2
Austria 1

the Iceland-Austria match should see two teams going for it, a draw doesn't help either much

if we assume one wins then Portugal need to win to avoid third place with a draw/out with a loss

as said, second plays England but more notably England-France-Spain/Germany/Italy so there is a real incentive to finish top and end up in the other half

i didn't think Hungary showed much in either game, but were very well organised and compact and a point stands a decent chance of winning them the group

perhaps the best bet is to lay Portugal at odds on and have the draw onside?
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Ledders
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« Reply #118911 on: June 22, 2016, 01:38:34 PM »

Yeah I think a lay is the best way to go forward if we're betting. Hungary have absolutely no incentive to attack unless they concede.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #118912 on: June 22, 2016, 02:40:42 PM »

Italy have won the group

Ireland need to win to stand a chance of third place, so can't sit back

Italy's price has drifted all day, really ever since it was confirmed that Spain are next. nine changes likely ahead of that game now

but the line up aren't going to be mugs and all are going to be motivated to try to get in the starting line up v spain

but Italy against Belgium looked accomplished counter-attackers, in front of a very solid and organised defence

are ROI good enough to keep them out when chasing goals of their own?

Isnt 6/4 Italy, which is where the price is headed, a big old price given the disparity between the two teams?
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« Reply #118913 on: June 22, 2016, 02:50:19 PM »

Is it even far fetched to assume England might now have been jollies for the whole event if we had won the group given the draw?
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« Reply #118914 on: June 22, 2016, 03:50:30 PM »

Baghdatis is into the 1/4 final after beating Querrey 2 sets to 1. He will play the winner of the Evans/ Cuevas match.
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« Reply #118915 on: June 22, 2016, 05:20:16 PM »

After getting whupped in the 1st set too.

Thx for the tip Hector, regardless of outcome from here.
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« Reply #118916 on: June 22, 2016, 05:24:28 PM »

After getting whupped in the 1st set too.

Thx for the tip Hector, regardless of outcome from here.

Indeed, think he had to survive some match points in the time break too.
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« Reply #118917 on: June 22, 2016, 05:39:03 PM »

Too many sick rubz from Adz on here about Lowry blowing that 4-shot lead.
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« Reply #118918 on: June 22, 2016, 05:43:36 PM »

Too many sick rubz from Adz on here about Lowry blowing that 4-shot lead.

I didn't have as much on ur tip as I had on Dustbin, but u certainly paid for one excursion on my Caribbean cruise. Ty
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« Reply #118919 on: June 22, 2016, 06:51:30 PM »

Austria missed penalty *sigh*
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