Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

For those that can, shy and baldfred are still 500/1 half odds 1-2 on wales in the world cup.

Amazing price.

By any reasonable yardstick, that has to be "value". From this spot, they would surely make the final more than once in 250 attempts.

Unlikely to pay off, but definitely value.

[TightEnd]

Evening Tighty.

The ATP Nottingham starts tomorrow and we have the opportunity to back one of my favourite players to win it. Decent grass courters are hard to find here, we have Anderson and Muller who have good serves, and we have Johnson and Querrey who have more to their game. Iam  hoping that Marcos Baghdatis will have a big week here as I love watching him play. He made my shortlist for last week and should have gone a set up when he played Zverev but blew it.

Suggest Baghdatis £10 e/w @ 14-1 with betvictor or betfred.

Hector mentions the American, Steve Johnson, in his write-up. I watched Johnson sweep Richard Gasquet aside in their first round match at Queens. I can't say whether Gasquet is currently out of form, but whilst he was being typically French and temperamental during the encounter, I was massively impressed by Johnson. He has a superb, deep sliced backhand shot, but can pull out a double-handed punch when seeking a winner. His forehand is his strength, and he was playing it with great accuracy when given the chance. Perhaps he might have come to the net more, but I think the damp conditions had a lot to do with that. He reached the quarters but lost to Cilic (Rank 13) in 3 sets after taking the first.

He's in the top half of the draw at Nottingham, and will face Anderson (Rank 20) if he is to progress to the final (& meet Bagdhatis). He has beaten Anderson in the past, and it appears that these two are on opposite trajectories. At age 30, and coming back from surgery and a rest, I think it's fair to say that Anderson is a vulnerable top half top seed. The other top half seed is Sousa, priced at 18/1 vs the 16/1 of Johnson - this tells you all you need to know here. So, I feel that Johnson is seriously overpriced, and I'm on with a small E/W at 16/1.

Apologies for not providing a link, but I'd recommend a £10 e/w on Steve Johnson from the other side of the draw in Nottingham.

Top tipping Mr Suited, thank you.

Even better, we got 20/1

we profited by £250, which must have been the ladbrokes take out limit for us as we were restricted to £8.33 e/w

[TightEnd]

i tried for a fiver e/w on wales

got limited to £1.65 ew. lols

still, when they wints a grand, so why not...


Bet placed

    Bet placed, its reference is 600/647

Bet ref: 600/647 1.65 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
World Cup 2018
World Cup 2018 Outright
EW 1/2 1,2   Wales   500/1   
Total stake   3.30
Estimated return   1,240.80
Full stake   3.30
Full estimated return   1,240.80

[TightEnd]

entries by tomorrow please, to the £12k celebration competition

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=67004.0

free, open to anyone who has ever had a bet accepted on here

[MereNovice]

4th quarter of the ladies draw at Wimbledon is interesting
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/player-to-win-4th-quarter

It is a very very weak section with Muguruza as  favourite.

Obviously Muguruza is the second fave for the tourney and played beautifully in Paris, but before she reached Winbledon final last year she did not show any particular aptitude for the surface and indeed lost in her only match this year in Eastbourne to 60 ranked Flipkens in straight sets.

Of the others, Lisicki has a grass court game and reached the final a few years back (where she totally choked of course) and has been plumetting down the rankings recently. Safarova two losses on grass this season from two matches. Others are claycourt players or have no grass pedigree. Stosur, hmmm?

Oddly I keep coming back to Venus Williams. She still has the power and even in the recent lean years often gets through a few rounds at Wimbledon and is tough to play on grass. 9/1 with Coral, I'm seriously tempted to say she can win five matches in a row here at that price in this section.

But maybe as we can't really find anyone else to back, we should just be backing Muguruza regardless here on 356?

Mere or hector or anyone else tennis-y do you have any thoughts please?

I agree that this is a very weak section of the draw.
It's difficult to see past Muguruza but Venus Williams would be my second favourite.
Muguruza was looking a little emotionally immature earlier in the year but seems to have refocused and should do well.
I'm not sure why Lisicki is second favourite. She is showing no form and was very poor at Wimbledon last year after I tipped her.
Safarova is showing no form, ditto Svitolina, Kasatkina and Jankovic.
Stosur is not a good grass court player.
Suarez Navarro has only won one match at Wimbledon in the last two years although it's not apparent to me why this should be the case. Possibly her backswing is a bit too long for grass.

Venus hasn't played since Paris so there's no form to go on. She's an infrequent player so that isn't necessarily a concern but there are always worries about her health due to her having Sjogren's syndrome. She has a seemingly easy first couple of matches so she could play herself into form nicely.

9/1 on Venus seems reasonable to me.

[DropTheHammer]

There's another sixes maths bet on the West Indies v Australia Tri Series final later.

Betting under 12.5 at 4/6 with C0ral and then over 9.5 at 1.87 with 888/UB means an ROI of -11.88% but there is a nice middle of 10, 11 and 12 sixes to scoop both bets.

Hopefully the unders firm will hold the price/line for longer here as this is an international. Over 9.5 is also offered by PP at 1.80.

[MereNovice]

There's another sixes maths bet on the West Indies v Australia Tri Series final later.

Betting under 12.5 at 4/6 with C0ral and then over 9.5 at 1.87 with 888/UB means an ROI of -11.88% but there is a nice middle of 10, 11 and 12 sixes to scoop both bets.

Hopefully the unders firm will hold the price/line for longer here as this is an international. Over 9.5 is also offered by PP at 1.80.

Do all firms treat matches with reduced overs (due to rain or whatever) in the same way?
Do all bets stand if there is any length match at all or do some firms void the bet? Does it depend on the number of overs played?

[TightEnd]

is anyone able to place £20 venus to win Q4 at 10-1 bet365 for tikay please?

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/player-to-win-4th-quarter

[Horneris]

4th quarter of the ladies draw at Wimbledon is interesting
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/player-to-win-4th-quarter

It is a very very weak section with Muguruza as  favourite.

Obviously Muguruza is the second fave for the tourney and played beautifully in Paris, but before she reached Winbledon final last year she did not show any particular aptitude for the surface and indeed lost in her only match this year in Eastbourne to 60 ranked Flipkens in straight sets.

Of the others, Lisicki has a grass court game and reached the final a few years back (where she totally choked of course) and has been plumetting down the rankings recently. Safarova two losses on grass this season from two matches. Others are claycourt players or have no grass pedigree. Stosur, hmmm?

Oddly I keep coming back to Venus Williams. She still has the power and even in the recent lean years often gets through a few rounds at Wimbledon and is tough to play on grass. 9/1 with Coral, I'm seriously tempted to say she can win five matches in a row here at that price in this section.

But maybe as we can't really find anyone else to back, we should just be backing Muguruza regardless here on 356?

Mere or hector or anyone else tennis-y do you have any thoughts please?

I agree that this is a very weak section of the draw.
It's difficult to see past Muguruza but Venus Williams would be my second favourite.
Muguruza was looking a little emotionally immature earlier in the year but seems to have refocused and should do well.
I'm not sure why Lisicki is second favourite. She is showing no form and was very poor at Wimbledon last year after I tipped her.
Safarova is showing no form, ditto Svitolina, Kasatkina and Jankovic.
Stosur is not a good grass court player.
Suarez Navarro has only won one match at Wimbledon in the last two years although it's not apparent to me why this should be the case. Possibly her backswing is a bit too long for grass.

Venus hasn't played since Paris so there's no form to go on. She's an infrequent player so that isn't necessarily a concern but there are always worries about her health due to her having Sjogren's syndrome. She has a seemingly easy first couple of matches so she could play herself into form nicely.

9/1 on Venus seems reasonable to me.

Worth noting that Lisicki is 12/1 with Paddy Power but their prices for some quarter betting aren't showing on oddschecker bizarrely. Can't see any reason this Venus bet isn't fair @ 10/1 with Bet365. Obviously hasn't played on grass yet this season and has played barely any tennis but that is factored into the price and with the draw she has she can play her way into the tournament. Get on.

Feels to me that Womens tournament is a strange one this year. A lot of the better grass players haven't played on grass all year or haven't played much tennis at all this year or have been injured for long periods in recent months. I would like Bencic E/W @ 100s, Kerber @ 33s E/W and Radwanska for her quarter @ 5/1 but you can't back them with too much confidence.

I would warn people to be careful not to rush to back players for their quarter when Sporting Bet seem to be offering generous outright E/W prices. Not sure I want to back Zverev to win his quarter @ 10s when I can get 50/1 to make the final by backing the 100/1 E/W. I doubt he would be bigger than 7/2 if he made it that far, especially not being in Djokovics half of the draw and also taking into the account the implied performances he has shown to get that far and the chances of the top seed in his half of the draw not making the final (Murray).

Or Kerber @ 6/1 which I quite liked at first when you can get 33/1 E/W (2 1/2) and her worst potential semi finalist would be Muguruza, V. Williams. Could never see her being bigger than 6/4 here and thats if Muguruza has had a worldie of a tournament.

[MereNovice]

is anyone able to place £20 venus to win Q4 at 10-1 bet365 for tikay please?

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/player-to-win-4th-quarter

Placed.

[Doobs]

is anyone able to place £20 venus to win Q4 at 10-1 bet365 for tikay please?

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/player-to-win-4th-quarter

Done

Edit.  No worries will keep.

[TightEnd]

thanks both

[MereNovice]

is anyone able to place £20 venus to win Q4 at 10-1 bet365 for tikay please?

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/player-to-win-4th-quarter

Done

Edit.  No worries will keep.

I'm happy to keep mine.
Really don't mind one way or the other.
You choose!

[Doobs]

thanks both

Or just keep both.  £40 isn't a massive bet anyway. 

[Ledders]

i tried for a fiver e/w on wales

got limited to £1.65 ew. lols

still, when they wints a grand, so why not...


Bet placed

    Bet placed, its reference is 600/647

Bet ref: 600/647 1.65 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
World Cup 2018
World Cup 2018 Outright
EW 1/2 1,2   Wales   500/1   
Total stake   3.30
Estimated return   1,240.80
Full stake   3.30
Full estimated return   1,240.80

fwiw Fred must be on 25% at baldys now because they just laid me to lose 5k.