Tips for Tikay

[maldini32]

I like Gavlar at a big price in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle later this afternoon (4.15) and I know that trainer William Knight and his stable staff are very confident of a big run.  

Unlike many of today's runners it has won over this marathon distance (3 times) and has good form on all weather surfaces (2 wins at Kempton, 1 at Lingfield).   I backed it last time out at Goodwood when it looked to have every chance before the jockey dropped his reins inside the final furlong.  Despite this it was only beaten just over 2 lengths by Kinema who franked the form by winning a £50k handicap at Royal Ascot next time out.  The Goodwood trip was shorter than today's race and I definitely think it's a case of the further the better where Gavlar is concerned.  I think he's still improving despite being a 5 year old and note that Timeform have this to say about the horse: "consistent but still getting better if anything".

My only previous recommend for the thread was also a William Knight horse (I live locally to the stables and follow him with interest) which got chinned on the line so I am looking to redeem myself here.  

I know Fred can't use Skye but for others they are going 20/1 BOG 1/4 odds 5 places in this race which looks better than the 22/1 4 places available elsewhere.  I'm hoping someone shrewder than me will jump in and let me know if I'm wrong to think this.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/newcastle/16:15/winner

Thoughts please ..

Thanks, I need to find a home for a £25 horse racing free bet. Good enough for me.

[Karabiner]

I like Gavlar at a big price in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle later this afternoon (4.15) and I know that trainer William Knight and his stable staff are very confident of a big run.  

Unlike many of today's runners it has won over this marathon distance (3 times) and has good form on all weather surfaces (2 wins at Kempton, 1 at Lingfield).   I backed it last time out at Goodwood when it looked to have every chance before the jockey dropped his reins inside the final furlong.  Despite this it was only beaten just over 2 lengths by Kinema who franked the form by winning a £50k handicap at Royal Ascot next time out.  The Goodwood trip was shorter than today's race and I definitely think it's a case of the further the better where Gavlar is concerned.  I think he's still improving despite being a 5 year old and note that Timeform have this to say about the horse: "consistent but still getting better if anything".

My only previous recommend for the thread was also a William Knight horse (I live locally to the stables and follow him with interest) which got chinned on the line so I am looking to redeem myself here.  

I know Fred can't use Skye but for others they are going 20/1 BOG 1/4 odds 5 places in this race which looks better than the 22/1 4 places available elsewhere.  I'm hoping someone shrewder than me will jump in and let me know if I'm wrong to think this.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/newcastle/16:15/winner

Thoughts please ..

You've convinced me to have a dabble EW.

I also have a weakness for horses with the cross of Lorraine on their silks.

 

[DropTheHammer]

I'm off to Sittingbourne dogs tonight; if anyone sees anything they fancy (that would be better than me throwing random darts) I'd be grateful.

It is a BAGS meeting which is covered on bf exchange so take your phone and back anything under bf with the on course bookies would be my simple suggestion.

Good stuff, ta.

[Dekka]

I like Gavlar at a big price in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle later this afternoon (4.15) and I know that trainer William Knight and his stable staff are very confident of a big run.  

Unlike many of today's runners it has won over this marathon distance (3 times) and has good form on all weather surfaces (2 wins at Kempton, 1 at Lingfield).   I backed it last time out at Goodwood when it looked to have every chance before the jockey dropped his reins inside the final furlong.  Despite this it was only beaten just over 2 lengths by Kinema who franked the form by winning a £50k handicap at Royal Ascot next time out.  The Goodwood trip was shorter than today's race and I definitely think it's a case of the further the better where Gavlar is concerned.  I think he's still improving despite being a 5 year old and note that Timeform have this to say about the horse: "consistent but still getting better if anything".

My only previous recommend for the thread was also a William Knight horse (I live locally to the stables and follow him with interest) which got chinned on the line so I am looking to redeem myself here.  

I know Fred can't use Skye but for others they are going 20/1 BOG 1/4 odds 5 places in this race which looks better than the 22/1 4 places available elsewhere.  I'm hoping someone shrewder than me will jump in and let me know if I'm wrong to think this.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/newcastle/16:15/winner

Thoughts please ..

You've convinced me to have a dabble EW.

I also have a weakness for horses with the cross of Lorraine on their silks.

 

I've done my conkers on a fair number of horses trained by the Balding family too!

[Dekka]

 Well, that was disappointing.  Dropped out at the back and given no chance to get in the race at all.  Finished like a train but the leaders had already gone.  Sorry folks.

[Stopsleyhatter]

Cracking start to the over 2.5 penalty shootouts somebody put up at 6/4

[Peter-27]

Thanks to all those who congratulated me about the F1 success at the weekend.

Motorsport continues its rise up the TFT rankings, overtaking Baseball, and now very close to NFL

Anyhow .. looking at the F1 championship, I believe now is the time to bet on Ferrari to win the constructors championship. Unlikely to happen, but you never know with the two Mercedes drivers continuing to ruin each others races when they both qualify at the front.

There are some mad prices around on the exchange, but anything at 33/1 + is worth doing. I've done £10 at 81/1 on the exchange. Suggest this for the thread also.

Think this got lost amongst the Euro talk

they have ruined each other's race once? hardly a pattern

its so unlikely to happen isn't it?

Mercedes are already 81 points ahead, Ferrari are basically 1.5 drivers in the fight as Kimi isn't a heavy enough points scorer and a few tracks apart (singapore maybe) one or other Mercedes is going to be in the hunt to win every race?

i've put it on to be matched as you chased me on it but no idea if its value, i suspect it isn't

anyway, would be a notch for the betting bedpost if you can get a 1.02 shot with £1700 wanting to back them at 1.03 beat!

Ferrari 80 £10.00 £790.00
Ref: 70149798680 Submitted: 12:01 22-Jun-16 

Not exactly. They've only taken each other out once, yes. However, they've ruined each other's race several times by running each other wide at turn one. The Mercedes is poor in traffic, and once they drop into the field, they don't seem able to come back through.

Mercedes should always have the edge in races over Ferrari, but they do keep screwing up - they haven't had a 1-2 for four races now, and that's what makes 80/1 a great position.

[4KSuited]

Whoever tipped up Steve Johnson for the Nottingham tennis, he is in the final playing against Cuevas, so ty!

yw

GL us

 

[BigAdz]

Whoever tipped up Steve Johnson for the Nottingham tennis, he is in the final playing against Cuevas, so ty!

yw

GL us

 

WPWP

[JohnCharver]

Whoever tipped up Steve Johnson for the Nottingham tennis, he is in the final playing against Cuevas, so ty!

yw

GL us

 

wd and ty.

[stumpythefish]

Whoever tipped up Steve Johnson for the Nottingham tennis, he is in the final playing against Cuevas, so ty!

yw

GL us

 

ty and wp

[bergeroo]

4th quarter of the ladies draw at Wimbledon is interesting
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/player-to-win-4th-quarter

It is a very very weak section with Muguruza as  favourite.

Obviously Muguruza is the second fave for the tourney and played beautifully in Paris, but before she reached Winbledon final last year she did not show any particular aptitude for the surface and indeed lost in her only match this year in Eastbourne to 60 ranked Flipkens in straight sets.

Of the others, Lisicki has a grass court game and reached the final a few years back (where she totally choked of course) and has been plumetting down the rankings recently. Safarova two losses on grass this season from two matches. Others are claycourt players or have no grass pedigree. Stosur, hmmm?

Oddly I keep coming back to Venus Williams. She still has the power and even in the recent lean years often gets through a few rounds at Wimbledon and is tough to play on grass. 9/1 with Coral, I'm seriously tempted to say she can win five matches in a row here at that price in this section.

But maybe as we can't really find anyone else to back, we should just be backing Muguruza regardless here on 356?

[Doobs]

For those that can, shy and baldfred are still 500/1 half odds 1-2 on wales in the world cup.

[tikay]

Evening Tighty.

The ATP Nottingham starts tomorrow and we have the opportunity to back one of my favourite players to win it. Decent grass courters are hard to find here, we have Anderson and Muller who have good serves, and we have Johnson and Querrey who have more to their game. Iam  hoping that Marcos Baghdatis will have a big week here as I love watching him play. He made my shortlist for last week and should have gone a set up when he played Zverev but blew it.

Suggest Baghdatis £10 e/w @ 14-1 with betvictor or betfred.

Hector mentions the American, Steve Johnson, in his write-up. I watched Johnson sweep Richard Gasquet aside in their first round match at Queens. I can't say whether Gasquet is currently out of form, but whilst he was being typically French and temperamental during the encounter, I was massively impressed by Johnson. He has a superb, deep sliced backhand shot, but can pull out a double-handed punch when seeking a winner. His forehand is his strength, and he was playing it with great accuracy when given the chance. Perhaps he might have come to the net more, but I think the damp conditions had a lot to do with that. He reached the quarters but lost to Cilic (Rank 13) in 3 sets after taking the first.

He's in the top half of the draw at Nottingham, and will face Anderson (Rank 20) if he is to progress to the final (& meet Bagdhatis). He has beaten Anderson in the past, and it appears that these two are on opposite trajectories. At age 30, and coming back from surgery and a rest, I think it's fair to say that Anderson is a vulnerable top half top seed. The other top half seed is Sousa, priced at 18/1 vs the 16/1 of Johnson - this tells you all you need to know here. So, I feel that Johnson is seriously overpriced, and I'm on with a small E/W at 16/1.

Apologies for not providing a link, but I'd recommend a £10 e/w on Steve Johnson from the other side of the draw in Nottingham.

Top tipping Mr Suited, thank you.

[TightEnd]

4th quarter of the ladies draw at Wimbledon is interesting
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/player-to-win-4th-quarter

It is a very very weak section with Muguruza as  favourite.

Obviously Muguruza is the second fave for the tourney and played beautifully in Paris, but before she reached Winbledon final last year she did not show any particular aptitude for the surface and indeed lost in her only match this year in Eastbourne to 60 ranked Flipkens in straight sets.

Of the others, Lisicki has a grass court game and reached the final a few years back (where she totally choked of course) and has been plumetting down the rankings recently. Safarova two losses on grass this season from two matches. Others are claycourt players or have no grass pedigree. Stosur, hmmm?

Oddly I keep coming back to Venus Williams. She still has the power and even in the recent lean years often gets through a few rounds at Wimbledon and is tough to play on grass. 9/1 with Coral, I'm seriously tempted to say she can win five matches in a row here at that price in this section.

But maybe as we can't really find anyone else to back, we should just be backing Muguruza regardless here on 356?

Mere or hector or anyone else tennis-y do you have any thoughts please?