Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svVfnT7jKHY

Sure most of you have seen this before but i just can't stop watching it wondering how Red Dog and bookiebasher have got together make the video!  Didn't realise Red Dog was so passionate against the betting firms!

[Peter-27]

With rain possibly in play, don't think you can back Nico from pole. Pretty sure he isn't 13/8 with a bone dry forecast.

If we assume it's a two horse race, Hamilton at 5/4 feels more out of line. I remember Lewis being much quicker at this track, he can pass him on the first bend or through strategy. With rain, he should easily beat Nico. Only thing is, it isn't a 2 horse race and I have no idea how other teams will run in race mode.

Peter???

Will be looking at the odds in an hour or so.

There's no threat of rain today, and this event is a two horse race 98% of the time.

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

[Peter-27]

The simulations suggest that it's 50/50 between Lewis and Nico for who wins this race. I already have £50 on Lewis to win the race at 23/20 per my earlier suggestion.

This track is usually relatively predictable. The bookies seem aware of this and have priced up accordingly, so I only have a few bets to suggest. In theory; the final order should be 2-by-2: Mercedes/Red Bull/Ferrari/Force India .. then Bottas and Alonso. Although, Perez and Raikkonen do start in the mid-pack which could potentially mix things up.

Points Finish - Romain Grosjean @ 7/5 with the exchange (anything >EVS is fine). He seems happier with his car this weekend. Might need a retirement or two upfront, or a contra-strategy, but this price is a bet. Suggest £15.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/points-finish

Winning Margin - Exactly 5-10 seconds @ 3/1 with 366. Just seems a bit too high to me. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/winning-margin

Number Of Classified Drivers - Over 19.5 @ 9/4 with 366. The Hungaroring is not a technically difficult track, and not hard on the cars either. Unless we get a pile-up, I can't see big unreliability here. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/number-of-finishers

Meanwhile, on the spreads, selling Alonso against Sainz at one is an incredible spot. Sainz starts ahead, and has the quicker car, with better fuel economy too. I don't understand this price at all. This is a biggie for me.

[TightEnd]

The simulations suggest that it's 50/50 between Lewis and Nico for who wins this race. I already have £50 on Lewis to win the race at 23/20 per my earlier suggestion.

This track is usually relatively predictable. The bookies seem aware of this and have priced up accordingly, so I only have a few bets to suggest. In theory; the final order should be 2-by-2: Mercedes/Red Bull/Ferrari/Force India .. then Bottas and Alonso. Although, Perez and Raikkonen do start in the mid-pack which could potentially mix things up.

Points Finish - Romain Grosjean @ 7/5 with the exchange (anything >EVS is fine). He seems happier with his car this weekend. Might need a retirement or two upfront, or a contra-strategy, but this price is a bet. Suggest £15.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/points-finish

Winning Margin - Exactly 5-10 seconds @ 3/1 with 366. Just seems a bit too high to me. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/winning-margin

Number Of Classified Drivers - Over 19.5 @ 9/4 with 366. The Hungaroring is not a technically difficult track, and not hard on the cars either. Unless we get a pile-up, I can't see big unreliability here. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/number-of-finishers

Meanwhile, on the spreads, selling Alonso against Sainz at one is an incredible spot. Sainz starts ahead, and has the quicker car, with better fuel economy too. I don't understand this price at all. This is a biggie for me.

there is no 7/5 (2.4) on the exchange and its 11/10 best in fixed odds. i have put a position up which is unmatched

thats the only one of the suggested bets which we can do, if it matches

[Chompy]

Click to see full-size image.

Small world. Used to work with this guy at Coral HO in the late 80s. We were at Sam Da Vinci's Whitbread when Big Mac had his hat knocked off by one of our party of three live on TV and went berserk. Odds available on request...

The pack is closing on SDS and Doyle is now only four behind but I'd still not be worried. Our boy is still the only one trying and he'll go on a hot run at some point.

[TightEnd]

shields played Seaham yesterday who were one of the better teams in the league last year and destroyed them. Seam scored 2 worldies but could have been 7 or 8-0 to Shields by all accounts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL3HmN6b0M8

Not sure if odds are up yet, but if Shields aren't favourites we should definitely lump. Again they were promoted last season so the bookies may not factor this in the odds, they battered a Scottish team in pre season friendly and were 8-1 pre game.

for the second time

markets highly unlikely to be offered on step 9, which feeds into Northern Premier div one north/south

they are too vulnerable to inside knowledge

lowest down i have seen offered in previous seasons is step 7 (eg evostik northern premier, one below conference north)

[Peter-27]

The simulations suggest that it's 50/50 between Lewis and Nico for who wins this race. I already have £50 on Lewis to win the race at 23/20 per my earlier suggestion.

This track is usually relatively predictable. The bookies seem aware of this and have priced up accordingly, so I only have a few bets to suggest. In theory; the final order should be 2-by-2: Mercedes/Red Bull/Ferrari/Force India .. then Bottas and Alonso. Although, Perez and Raikkonen do start in the mid-pack which could potentially mix things up.

Points Finish - Romain Grosjean @ 7/5 with the exchange (anything >EVS is fine). He seems happier with his car this weekend. Might need a retirement or two upfront, or a contra-strategy, but this price is a bet. Suggest £15.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/points-finish

Winning Margin - Exactly 5-10 seconds @ 3/1 with 366. Just seems a bit too high to me. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/winning-margin

Number Of Classified Drivers - Over 19.5 @ 9/4 with 366. The Hungaroring is not a technically difficult track, and not hard on the cars either. Unless we get a pile-up, I can't see big unreliability here. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/number-of-finishers

Meanwhile, on the spreads, selling Alonso against Sainz at one is an incredible spot. Sainz starts ahead, and has the quicker car, with better fuel economy too. I don't understand this price at all. This is a biggie for me.

there is no 7/5 (2.4) on the exchange and its 11/10 best in fixed odds. i have put a position up which is unmatched

thats the only one of the suggested bets which we can do, if it matches

11/10 would be fine.

[TightEnd]

Romain Grosjean Hungarian Grand Prix Points Finish
11/10
Total Stake: £15.00
Total Returns: £31.50

[DMorgan]

Nico drifting, out to 13/8 now on the exchange

The implied chance at the prices (2.65 Nico, 2.33 Lewis) suggest that a mercedes wins this race 80.7% of the time

What is the margin for error of your sim that made it a 2 horse race 98% of the time?

[arbboy]

MVG looks too short tonight v Taylor in the darts.  Doesn't look to be much between them at all this week on performances.  No one looks well prepared for the event in general as all the foreign travel prior to this event seems to be catching up with them.  Although the big 4 were all match sharp and got to the semis the standards have been pretty bang average (relative to 2015/6 new high standards).  Expecting a dog fight and think it will be closer than the betting suggests.

Anyone fancy anything at Uttox this afternoon?

[Peter-27]

Nico drifting, out to 13/8 now on the exchange

The implied chance at the prices (2.65 Nico, 2.33 Lewis) suggest that a mercedes wins this race 80.7% of the time

What is the margin for error of your sim that made it a 2 horse race 98% of the time?

I can't attribute a value to it because of the way the simulation works. The 98% figure is the convergence, and also the peak figure in this instance. The lowest figure was 93%. So I suppose you could say that's 95.5% +/- 2.5%? It's a bit inaccurate to say that's a conclusion, but it gives you an idea.

[Doobs]

Nico drifting, out to 13/8 now on the exchange

The implied chance at the prices (2.65 Nico, 2.33 Lewis) suggest that a mercedes wins this race 80.7% of the time

What is the margin for error of your sim that made it a 2 horse race 98% of the time?

I can't attribute a value to it because of the way the simulation works. The 98% figure is the convergence, and also the peak figure in this instance. The lowest figure was 93%. So I suppose you could say that's 95.5% +/- 2.5%? It's a bit inaccurate to say that's a conclusion, but it gives you an idea.

Will happily take 20/1 on the whole field vs Mercedes.  98% is clearly a ludicrous figure.  Things go wrong mechanically, cars hit each over. Thunderstorms can still happen etc.

[Peter-27]

Nico drifting, out to 13/8 now on the exchange

The implied chance at the prices (2.65 Nico, 2.33 Lewis) suggest that a mercedes wins this race 80.7% of the time

What is the margin for error of your sim that made it a 2 horse race 98% of the time?

I can't attribute a value to it because of the way the simulation works. The 98% figure is the convergence, and also the peak figure in this instance. The lowest figure was 93%. So I suppose you could say that's 95.5% +/- 2.5%? It's a bit inaccurate to say that's a conclusion, but it gives you an idea.

Will happily take 20/1 on the whole field vs Mercedes.  98% is clearly a ludicrous figure.  Things go wrong mechanically, cars hit each over. Thunderstorms can still happen etc.

Best of luck

Actually risk of precipitation is increasing, now up to 20% and rising. So you can never tell!

[Bazzaboy]

MVG looks too short tonight v Taylor in the darts.  Doesn't look to be much between them at all this week on performances.  No one looks well prepared for the event in general as all the foreign travel prior to this event seems to be catching up with them.  Although the big 4 were all match sharp and got to the semis the standards have been pretty bang average (relative to 2015/6 new high standards).  Expecting a dog fight and think it will be closer than the betting suggests.

Anyone fancy anything at Uttox this afternoon?

It has been pretty dire stuff all week. All off the big guns seem undercooked but no one has stepped up to the plate. I'd probably prefer to back Taylor with the +3.5 as he still has massive question marks for me about hitting the doubles when they really matter.