poker news
blondepedia
card room
tournament schedule
uk results
galleries
Welcome,
Guest
. Please
login
or
register
.
June 05, 2024, 06:58:07 AM
1 Hour
1 Day
1 Week
1 Month
Forever
Login with username, password and session length
Search:
Advanced search
Order through Amazon and help blonde Poker
2272886
Posts in
66759
Topics by
16723
Members
Latest Member:
callpri
blonde poker forum
Community Forums
Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Tips for Tikay
0 Members and 4 Guests are viewing this topic.
« previous
next »
Pages:
1
...
7983
7984
7985
7986
[
7987
]
7988
7989
7990
7991
...
9208
Author
Topic: Tips for Tikay (Read 13567408 times)
arbboy
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 13285
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #119790 on:
July 24, 2016, 12:08:40 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svVfnT7jKHY
Sure most of you have seen this before but i just can't stop watching it wondering how Red Dog and bookiebasher have got together make the video! Didn't realise Red Dog was so passionate against the betting firms!
«
Last Edit: July 24, 2016, 12:10:26 AM by arbboy
»
Logged
Peter-27
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1550
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #119791 on:
July 24, 2016, 09:09:31 AM »
Quote from: swinebag22 on July 23, 2016, 10:48:29 PM
With rain possibly in play, don't think you can back Nico from pole. Pretty sure he isn't 13/8 with a bone dry forecast.
If we assume it's a two horse race, Hamilton at 5/4 feels more out of line. I remember Lewis being much quicker at this track, he can pass him on the first bend or through strategy. With rain, he should easily beat Nico. Only thing is, it isn't a 2 horse race and I have no idea how other teams will run in race mode.
Peter???
Will be looking at the odds in an hour or so.
There's no threat of rain today, and this event is a two horse race 98% of the time.
Logged
https://twitter.com/f1peter27
https://twitter.com/DownforceBets
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #119792 on:
July 24, 2016, 10:47:15 AM »
Click to see full-size image.
Logged
My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
Peter-27
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1550
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #119793 on:
July 24, 2016, 11:04:33 AM »
The simulations suggest that it's 50/50 between Lewis and Nico for who wins this race. I already have £50 on Lewis to win the race at 23/20 per my earlier suggestion.
This track is usually relatively predictable. The bookies seem aware of this and have priced up accordingly, so I only have a few bets to suggest. In theory; the final order should be 2-by-2: Mercedes/Red Bull/Ferrari/Force India .. then Bottas and Alonso. Although, Perez and Raikkonen do start in the mid-pack which could potentially mix things up.
Points Finish - Romain Grosjean
@ 7/5 with the exchange (anything >EVS is fine). He seems happier with his car this weekend. Might need a retirement or two upfront, or a contra-strategy, but this price is a bet. Suggest £15.
http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/points-finish
Winning Margin - Exactly 5-10 seconds
@ 3/1 with 366. Just seems a bit too high to me. Suggest £10.
http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/winning-margin
Number Of Classified Drivers - Over 19.5
@ 9/4 with 366. The Hungaroring is not a technically difficult track, and not hard on the cars either. Unless we get a pile-up, I can't see big unreliability here. Suggest £20.
http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/number-of-finishers
Meanwhile, on the spreads,
selling Alonso against Sainz at one
is an incredible spot. Sainz starts ahead, and has the quicker car, with better fuel economy too. I don't understand this price at all. This is a biggie for me.
Logged
https://twitter.com/f1peter27
https://twitter.com/DownforceBets
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #119794 on:
July 24, 2016, 11:20:12 AM »
Quote from: Peter-27 on July 24, 2016, 11:04:33 AM
The simulations suggest that it's 50/50 between Lewis and Nico for who wins this race. I already have £50 on Lewis to win the race at 23/20 per my earlier suggestion.
This track is usually relatively predictable. The bookies seem aware of this and have priced up accordingly, so I only have a few bets to suggest. In theory; the final order should be 2-by-2: Mercedes/Red Bull/Ferrari/Force India .. then Bottas and Alonso. Although, Perez and Raikkonen do start in the mid-pack which could potentially mix things up.
Points Finish - Romain Grosjean
@ 7/5 with the exchange (anything >EVS is fine). He seems happier with his car this weekend. Might need a retirement or two upfront, or a contra-strategy, but this price is a bet. Suggest £15.
http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/points-finish
Winning Margin - Exactly 5-10 seconds
@ 3/1 with 366. Just seems a bit too high to me. Suggest £10.
http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/winning-margin
Number Of Classified Drivers - Over 19.5
@ 9/4 with 366. The Hungaroring is not a technically difficult track, and not hard on the cars either. Unless we get a pile-up, I can't see big unreliability here. Suggest £20.
http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/number-of-finishers
Meanwhile, on the spreads,
selling Alonso against Sainz at one
is an incredible spot. Sainz starts ahead, and has the quicker car, with better fuel economy too. I don't understand this price at all. This is a biggie for me.
there is no 7/5 (2.4) on the exchange and its 11/10 best in fixed odds. i have put a position up which is unmatched
thats the only one of the suggested bets which we can do, if it matches
Logged
My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
Chompy
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 11852
Expert
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #119795 on:
July 24, 2016, 11:43:15 AM »
Quote from: TightEnd on July 24, 2016, 10:47:15 AM
Click to see full-size image.
Small world. Used to work with this guy at Coral HO in the late 80s. We were at Sam Da Vinci's Whitbread when Big Mac had his hat knocked off by one of our party of three live on TV and went berserk. Odds available on request...
The pack is closing on SDS and Doyle is now only four behind but I'd still not be worried. Our boy is still the only one trying and he'll go on a hot run at some point.
Logged
"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #119796 on:
July 24, 2016, 12:48:57 PM »
Quote from: pleno1 on July 23, 2016, 02:17:06 PM
shields played Seaham yesterday who were one of the better teams in the league last year and destroyed them. Seam scored 2 worldies but could have been 7 or 8-0 to Shields by all accounts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL3HmN6b0M8
Not sure if odds are up yet, but if Shields aren't favourites we should definitely lump. Again they were promoted last season so the bookies may not factor this in the odds, they battered a Scottish team in pre season friendly and were 8-1 pre game.
for the second time
markets highly unlikely to be offered on step 9, which feeds into Northern Premier div one north/south
they are too vulnerable to inside knowledge
lowest down i have seen offered in previous seasons is step 7 (eg evostik northern premier, one below conference north)
Logged
My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
Peter-27
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1550
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #119797 on:
July 24, 2016, 01:18:31 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on July 24, 2016, 11:20:12 AM
Quote from: Peter-27 on July 24, 2016, 11:04:33 AM
The simulations suggest that it's 50/50 between Lewis and Nico for who wins this race. I already have £50 on Lewis to win the race at 23/20 per my earlier suggestion.
This track is usually relatively predictable. The bookies seem aware of this and have priced up accordingly, so I only have a few bets to suggest. In theory; the final order should be 2-by-2: Mercedes/Red Bull/Ferrari/Force India .. then Bottas and Alonso. Although, Perez and Raikkonen do start in the mid-pack which could potentially mix things up.
Points Finish - Romain Grosjean
@ 7/5 with the exchange (anything >EVS is fine). He seems happier with his car this weekend. Might need a retirement or two upfront, or a contra-strategy, but this price is a bet. Suggest £15.
http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/points-finish
Winning Margin - Exactly 5-10 seconds
@ 3/1 with 366. Just seems a bit too high to me. Suggest £10.
http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/winning-margin
Number Of Classified Drivers - Over 19.5
@ 9/4 with 366. The Hungaroring is not a technically difficult track, and not hard on the cars either. Unless we get a pile-up, I can't see big unreliability here. Suggest £20.
http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/hungarian-grand-prix/number-of-finishers
Meanwhile, on the spreads,
selling Alonso against Sainz at one
is an incredible spot. Sainz starts ahead, and has the quicker car, with better fuel economy too. I don't understand this price at all. This is a biggie for me.
there is no 7/5 (2.4) on the exchange and its 11/10 best in fixed odds. i have put a position up which is unmatched
thats the only one of the suggested bets which we can do, if it matches
11/10 would be fine.
Logged
https://twitter.com/f1peter27
https://twitter.com/DownforceBets
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #119798 on:
July 24, 2016, 01:21:38 PM »
Romain Grosjean Hungarian Grand Prix Points Finish
11/10
Total Stake: £15.00
Total Returns: £31.50
Logged
My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
DMorgan
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 4449
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #119799 on:
July 24, 2016, 01:26:26 PM »
Nico drifting, out to 13/8 now on the exchange
The implied chance at the prices (2.65 Nico, 2.33 Lewis) suggest that a mercedes wins this race 80.7% of the time
What is the margin for error of your sim that made it a 2 horse race 98% of the time?
Logged
Quote from: Karabiner on May 24, 2014, 12:47:13 PM
Is Dan awake yet?
arbboy
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 13285
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #119800 on:
July 24, 2016, 01:29:27 PM »
MVG looks too short tonight v Taylor in the darts. Doesn't look to be much between them at all this week on performances. No one looks well prepared for the event in general as all the foreign travel prior to this event seems to be catching up with them. Although the big 4 were all match sharp and got to the semis the standards have been pretty bang average (relative to 2015/6 new high standards). Expecting a dog fight and think it will be closer than the betting suggests.
Anyone fancy anything at Uttox this afternoon?
Logged
Peter-27
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1550
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #119801 on:
July 24, 2016, 01:35:33 PM »
Quote from: DMorgan on July 24, 2016, 01:26:26 PM
Nico drifting, out to 13/8 now on the exchange
The implied chance at the prices (2.65 Nico, 2.33 Lewis) suggest that a mercedes wins this race 80.7% of the time
What is the margin for error of your sim that made it a 2 horse race 98% of the time?
I can't attribute a value to it because of the way the simulation works. The 98% figure is the convergence, and also the peak figure in this instance. The lowest figure was 93%. So I suppose you could say that's 95.5% +/- 2.5%? It's a bit inaccurate to say that's a conclusion, but it gives you an idea.
Logged
https://twitter.com/f1peter27
https://twitter.com/DownforceBets
Doobs
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 16591
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #119802 on:
July 24, 2016, 01:41:02 PM »
Quote from: Peter-27 on July 24, 2016, 01:35:33 PM
Quote from: DMorgan on July 24, 2016, 01:26:26 PM
Nico drifting, out to 13/8 now on the exchange
The implied chance at the prices (2.65 Nico, 2.33 Lewis) suggest that a mercedes wins this race 80.7% of the time
What is the margin for error of your sim that made it a 2 horse race 98% of the time?
I can't attribute a value to it because of the way the simulation works. The 98% figure is the convergence, and also the peak figure in this instance. The lowest figure was 93%. So I suppose you could say that's 95.5% +/- 2.5%? It's a bit inaccurate to say that's a conclusion, but it gives you an idea.
Will happily take 20/1 on the whole field vs Mercedes. 98% is clearly a ludicrous figure. Things go wrong mechanically, cars hit each over. Thunderstorms can still happen etc.
Logged
Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Peter-27
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1550
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #119803 on:
July 24, 2016, 01:51:02 PM »
Quote from: Doobs on July 24, 2016, 01:41:02 PM
Quote from: Peter-27 on July 24, 2016, 01:35:33 PM
Quote from: DMorgan on July 24, 2016, 01:26:26 PM
Nico drifting, out to 13/8 now on the exchange
The implied chance at the prices (2.65 Nico, 2.33 Lewis) suggest that a mercedes wins this race 80.7% of the time
What is the margin for error of your sim that made it a 2 horse race 98% of the time?
I can't attribute a value to it because of the way the simulation works. The 98% figure is the convergence, and also the peak figure in this instance. The lowest figure was 93%. So I suppose you could say that's 95.5% +/- 2.5%? It's a bit inaccurate to say that's a conclusion, but it gives you an idea.
Will happily take 20/1 on the whole field vs Mercedes. 98% is clearly a ludicrous figure. Things go wrong mechanically, cars hit each over. Thunderstorms can still happen etc.
Best of luck
Actually risk of precipitation is increasing, now up to 20% and rising. So you can never tell!
Logged
https://twitter.com/f1peter27
https://twitter.com/DownforceBets
Bazzaboy
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3674
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #119804 on:
July 24, 2016, 02:01:36 PM »
Quote from: arbboy on July 24, 2016, 01:29:27 PM
MVG looks too short tonight v Taylor in the darts. Doesn't look to be much between them at all this week on performances. No one looks well prepared for the event in general as all the foreign travel prior to this event seems to be catching up with them. Although the big 4 were all match sharp and got to the semis the standards have been pretty bang average (relative to 2015/6 new high standards). Expecting a dog fight and think it will be closer than the betting suggests.
Anyone fancy anything at Uttox this afternoon?
It has been pretty dire stuff all week. All off the big guns seem undercooked but no one has stepped up to the plate. I'd probably prefer to back Taylor with the +3.5 as he still has massive question marks for me about hitting the doubles when they really matter.
Logged
Pages:
1
...
7983
7984
7985
7986
[
7987
]
7988
7989
7990
7991
...
9208
« previous
next »
Jump to:
Please select a destination:
-----------------------------
Poker Forums
-----------------------------
=> The Rail
===> past blonde Bashes
===> Best of blonde
=> Diaries and Blogs
=> Live Tournament Updates
=> Live poker
===> Live Tournament Staking
=> Internet Poker
===> Online Tournament Staking
=> Poker Hand Analysis
===> Learning Centre
-----------------------------
Community Forums
-----------------------------
=> The Lounge
=> Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Loading...