Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

I have backed two in the first, Oceane (10/1) and Star Rider (14/1).  They both look like likely stayers and are in the young improver camp.

I have looked at the terms, and only 365 and the ex bookmaker, ladbrokes are 5 places and these prices, and we aren't ever getting much on with ladbrokes.

If you want 25 e/w on these two on terms please confirm quickly.  I need to be elsewhere, may post a few more after lunch, though the 5.25 is down to 16 already and even at goodwood the 4.20 might be an account closer (and may be a bt difficult anyway).

[TightEnd]

I have backed two in the first, Oceane (10/1) and Star Rider (14/1).  They both look like likely stayers and are in the young improved camp.

I have looked at the terms, and only 365 and the ex bookmaker, ladbrokes are 5 places and these prices, and we aren't ever getting much on with ladbrokes.

If you want 25 e/w on these two on terms please confirm quickly.  I need to be elsewhere, may post a few more after lunch, though the 5.25 is down to 16 already and even at goodwood the 4.20 might be an account closer (and may be a bt difficult anyway).

no problem, confirmed for the two in the first race

[Marky147]

I have backed two in the first, Oceane (10/1) and Star Rider (14/1).  They both look like likely stayers and are in the young improver camp.

I have looked at the terms, and only 365 and the ex bookmaker, ladbrokes are 5 places and these prices, and we aren't ever getting much on with ladbrokes.

If you want 25 e/w on these two on terms please confirm quickly.  I need to be elsewhere, may post a few more after lunch, though the 5.25 is down to 16 already and even at goodwood the 4.20 might be an account closer (and may be a bt difficult anyway).

Unlucky chaps...

Those are the 2 I backed yesterday afternoon.

[Chompy]

Seems Callum Elder is off on loan to Brentford. Would improve any Championship team he goes to imo. Poshies were pushing for him to come back but we'll be fine with the new lad from Newport, who's impressed in pre-season.

Not sure why you wouldn't want to back Naarwich EW with four places. Jerome, plus maybe Ross M, and they'll be right up there.

[TightEnd]

Seems Callum Elder is off on loan to Brentford. Would improve any Championship team he goes to imo. Poshies were pushing for him to come back but we'll be fine with the new lad from Newport, who's impressed in pre-season.

Not sure why you wouldn't want to back Naarwich EW with four places. Jerome, plus maybe Ross M, and they'll be right up there.

Callum's a good player, and one we want longer term

He was behind Fuchs and Chilwell (Chilwell is going to be a superstar) and we kept him through the summer because Chilwell was being chased hard by Liverpool (recommended to Klopp by Wagner at Huddersfiled).

We've got Chilwell signing a new contract now though and going to play a lot of games this year so Elder is 3rd choice again

When Fuchs goes at the end of his contract, headed to the US, Elder will be Chilwell's back up or replacement

[TightEnd]

Not sure why you wouldn't want to back Naarwich EW with four places. Jerome, plus maybe Ross M, and they'll be right up there.

its 3 places, hence arbboy's point

you wouldn't take 1/4 123 in a 24 runner horse handicap, so why would you in the championship?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/winner

above i was trying to argue reasons you might want to (shape of market, crossing out 10 of the 24 etc), but its arbboy. i will lose the argument :-)

Norwich are 11/4 to be promoted

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/promotion

[Chompy]

Oops, my bad, was in the top scorer market.

Prob best win only then.

[bookiebasher]

still contemplating Norwich at 10-1 (more opinions welcome) and open to all other ideas across English and Scottish football

Premier league and football league etc

winners, to be promoted, to bhe relegated, top scorers, other sub markets etc

always get enjoyable positions this time of the year that we can follow through the season

As for Newcastle, i think tikay and I are as one. They could well romp it but market shape almost compels us to have some stabs at finding teams to place in the top 3 instead given how much Newcastle take out of the market at 15/8

Please don't bet ew 1/4 1,2,3 in a 24 runner event whatever you do. 

not even if you think you can draw a line through 10 of them? (i know its the championship, though, so that might be optimistic)

not even with 15/8 10-1 bar the favourite? obviously different if its a standard 6/1+ the field year

there is a side that finished 3rd last year, and in the play offs three of the last four seasons, available at 9/2 to place....to give one example

i suppose you'll tell me to look at the "to be promoted" market instrad

Fwiw I have backed Norwich EW a few times over the summer and went in again yesterday with corals at 10-1 ( now ).

Quite happy getting 5-2 on the place side and a chance of a decent bink if they win.

I understand that over the years the championship is a league where anyone can beat anyone but I am not convinced that there is a lot of quality in the league this year. Obviously Newcastle are strong favourites but they have the target on there backs.

Villa in disarray , Derby poor form in second half of season do not inspire much confidence. Brighton and Sheffield Wednesday have got to build on the progress they made last season.

2-1 Newc 9-1 Norwich or Villa. No brainer for me. Suggest £50 Ew Norwich at 9-1.

Cannot ever remember going against Arbboy  

[tikay]

Quick reminder.....

The US PGA starts tomorrow.........


http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/uspga-championship

[arbboy]

You are taking on maths (proven to be unbeaten over time) not arbboy.  When would you ever back a horse ew in a 24 runner race at 1/4 1,2,3 and think you were having the best of it when the top of the market is 15/8 9, 10, 10, 12 ,12 16 16 20 20 and only 4 of the runners are 100/1 or bigger?    It would be tough to find much (if any) value betting 1/4 1,2,3,4 in a 24 runner race maths wise never mind 3 places.  

As a full time horse racing arber for several years i could count the number of times i found any place value in a 12-15 runner hcaps at 1/4 1,2,3 on one hand (never mind having 24 runners) whether the fav was 2/1 or 6/1 in these races.

The key to this market revolves around Newcastle and your view on that not the team you are backing.  I have no view on Norwich as a bet at 10/1 or 9/1.  I just know i would happily lay someone 1/4 1,2,3 ew in a 24 runner race without even thinking with a betting shape like this market has.  It would be hard to keep a straight face if they wanted the bet in person and i would feel like i was having their pants down.

No idea how people think backing Norwich to top 3 place at 9/4 (and being forced to buy the variance of the win part of the bet as well) is a better option than taking 11/4 on them being promoted when there is one team that is big odds on to finish in one of those top 3 places you require.  The shape of the market massively works against you in this spot unless you are massively against Newcastle for whatever reason at the prices.  If Norwich finish 4th/5th/6th you effectively have a free bet on Norwich to go up (your top 3 bet will have lost) at 11/4 when they will be shorter to win the play offs.  If they finish 1st or 2nd your bet wins anyway at a bigger price.  The only downside of the bet  if you finish 3rd your bet can still win anyway (again at a bigger price).  I think i know which side of that fence i would rather be on.

I am amazed no-one is offering 1/4 1,2,3,4 tbh.  If this was a horse race half the firms would be offering 1/4 5 places.

[bookiebasher]

You are taking on maths (proven to be unbeaten over time) not arbboy.  When would you ever back a horse ew in a 24 runner race at 1/4 1,2,3 and think you were having the best of it when the top of the market is 15/8 9, 10, 10, 12 ,12 16 16 20 20 and only 4 of the runners are 100/1 or bigger?    It would be tough to find much (if any) value betting 1/4 1,2,3,4 in a 24 runner race maths wise never mind 3 places.  

As a full time horse racing arber for several years i could count the number of times i found any place value in a 12-15 runner hcaps at 1/4 1,2,3 on one hand (never mind having 24 runners) whether the fav was 2/1 or 6/1 in these races.

The key to this market revolves around Newcastle and your view on that not the team you are backing.  I have no view on Norwich as a bet at 10/1 or 9/1.  I just know i would happily lay someone 1/4 1,2,3 ew in a 24 runner race without even thinking with a betting shape like this market has.  It would be hard to keep a straight face if they wanted the bet in person and i would feel like i was having their pants down.

Maths never my strong point

Just do not see it as a 24 runner horse race. I see it as a league where only 6 or 7 are in with a shout unless someone does a Leicester. Plus , don't see how Villa are the same price as Norwich. That is one match bet I will certainly be looking out for.

[Tal]

You are taking on maths (proven to be unbeaten over time) not arbboy.  When would you ever back a horse ew in a 24 runner race at 1/4 1,2,3 and think you were having the best of it when the top of the market is 15/8 9, 10, 10, 12 ,12 16 16 20 20 and only 4 of the runners are 100/1 or bigger?    It would be tough to find much (if any) value betting 1/4 1,2,3,4 in a 24 runner race maths wise never mind 3 places.  

As a full time horse racing arber for several years i could count the number of times i found any place value in a 12-15 runner hcaps at 1/4 1,2,3 on one hand (never mind having 24 runners) whether the fav was 2/1 or 6/1 in these races.

The key to this market revolves around Newcastle and your view on that not the team you are backing.  I have no view on Norwich as a bet at 10/1 or 9/1.  I just know i would happily lay someone 1/4 1,2,3 ew in a 24 runner race without even thinking with a betting shape like this market has.  It would be hard to keep a straight face if they wanted the bet in person and i would feel like i was having their pants down.

No idea how people think backing Norwich to top 3 place at 9/4 (and being forced to buy the variance of the win part of the bet as well) is a better option than taking 11/4 on them being promoted when there is one team that is big odds on to finish in one of those top 3 places you require.  The shape of the market massively works against you in this spot unless you are massively against Newcastle for whatever reason at the prices.

I am amazed no-one is offering 1/4 1,2,3,4 tbh.  If this was a horse race half the firms would be offering 1/4 5 places.

...and the other half would be advertising a sixth place and then moaning about how their profits were unexpectedly down again this season, with no hint of irony.

[bookiebasher]

You are taking on maths (proven to be unbeaten over time) not arbboy.  When would you ever back a horse ew in a 24 runner race at 1/4 1,2,3 and think you were having the best of it when the top of the market is 15/8 9, 10, 10, 12 ,12 16 16 20 20 and only 4 of the runners are 100/1 or bigger?    It would be tough to find much (if any) value betting 1/4 1,2,3,4 in a 24 runner race maths wise never mind 3 places.  

As a full time horse racing arber for several years i could count the number of times i found any place value in a 12-15 runner hcaps at 1/4 1,2,3 on one hand (never mind having 24 runners) whether the fav was 2/1 or 6/1 in these races.

The key to this market revolves around Newcastle and your view on that not the team you are backing.  I have no view on Norwich as a bet at 10/1 or 9/1.  I just know i would happily lay someone 1/4 1,2,3 ew in a 24 runner race without even thinking with a betting shape like this market has.  It would be hard to keep a straight face if they wanted the bet in person and i would feel like i was having their pants down.

No idea how people think backing Norwich to top 3 place at 9/4 (and being forced to buy the variance of the win part of the bet as well) is a better option than taking 11/4 on them being promoted when there is one team that is big odds on to finish in one of those top 3 places you require.  The shape of the market massively works against you in this spot unless you are massively against Newcastle for whatever reason at the prices.  If Norwich finish 4th/5th/6th you effectively have a free bet on Norwich to go up (your top 3 bet will have lost) at 11/4 when they will be shorter to win the play offs.  If they finish 1st or 2nd your bet wins anyway at a bigger price.  The only downside of the bet  if you finish 3rd your bet can still win anyway (again at a bigger price).  I think i know which side of that fence i would rather be on.

I am amazed no-one is offering 1/4 1,2,3,4 tbh.  If this was a horse race half the firms would be offering 1/4 5 places.

I think Newcastle are way too short and that's what makes Norwich a decent bet in my eyes , either straight win or each way.

Because I don't particularly think the other teams chasing promotion are strong this year I am happy to get 5-2 for the place bit.

I see your point about promotion odds but I am hoping to bink the lot at 10-1.

[TightEnd]

also for your consideration

Click to see full-size image.

[DungBeetle]

also for your consideration

Click to see full-size image.

Love Wigan in this market.