Tips for Tikay

[StuartHopkin]

Marnie Simpson a max bet for CBB, based on the the previous Geordie Shore winners and her 851k twitter followers?

9/2 available on the rocky site at the bottom of the ocean.

[DungBeetle]

I'm starting to talk myself out of Sheff Wed.  When I compare sheff wed at 18-1 verses Norwich at 10-1 I just like Norwich every time.

[Peter-27]

I wasn't sure if I should mention this, but seeing as the topic is being discussed; isn't Newcastle to win the championship at 15/8 a mega price?

Main rivals are probably Norwich, but Newcastle outscored them last season - and the toon now have a vastly improved squad too .. containing players with championship experience also. If that wasn't enough, surely a World class manager like Benitez vastly increases their chances over a 46 game season? I can't see how the price should be anything more than 11/10. They have at least a 50% chance of taking the title, don't they?

[arbboy]

Newcastle are very tough to price up.  Some people have Peter's view and others think they are miles too short.  The reality is though most markets in this division run through Newcastle and your opinion of them as they take such a huge chunk out of most ante post books.

[hhyftrftdr]

How often do teams go off shorter than 2/1 for the Championship/Division 1 in recent history?

[arbboy]

How often do teams go off shorter than 2/1 for the Championship/Division 1 in recent history?

Very rarely.  Trying to think what price Man City went off when they dropped down to the third tier a few years ago.  Don't think i can remember a team sub 2/1 in the championship.

[hhyftrftdr]

How often do teams go off shorter than 2/1 for the Championship/Division 1 in recent history?

Very rarely.  Trying to think what price Man City went off when they dropped down to the third tier a few years ago.  Don't think i can remember a team sub 2/1 in the championship.

Was only 11 so bit young for my gambling days but I'm guessing we were huge favourites for obvious reasons. Every week was a bloody cup final for the opposition though and we struggled (12th at Christmas having been beaten 2-1 at York says it all). Just about made the play offs with a good run in and the rest is history.

Whilst not directly comparable (Newcastle down here 6 years ago whereas it was City's first ever stint in the third tier), the barcodes are gonna be the team to beat as alluded to above. They might well swat opposition aside, but can see the likes of Burton, Preston, Leeds, Barnsley etc relishing their ties with the Toon.

[tikay]

I wasn't sure if I should mention this, but seeing as the topic is being discussed; isn't Newcastle to win the championship at 15/8 a mega price?

Main rivals are probably Norwich, but Newcastle outscored them last season - and the toon now have a vastly improved squad too .. containing players with championship experience also. If that wasn't enough, surely a World class manager like Benitez vastly increases their chances over a 46 game season? I can't see how the price should be anything more than 11/10. They have at least a 50% chance of taking the title, don't they?

I honestly can't think of any team, ever, that I would want to back pre-season at 11/10 to win the Championship. It's a notoriously difficult and unpredictable league, as has been shown most recent seasons.

Certainly don't think they are 50% to win the title.

[hhyftrftdr]

I wasn't sure if I should mention this, but seeing as the topic is being discussed; isn't Newcastle to win the championship at 15/8 a mega price?

Main rivals are probably Norwich, but Newcastle outscored them last season - and the toon now have a vastly improved squad too .. containing players with championship experience also. If that wasn't enough, surely a World class manager like Benitez vastly increases their chances over a 46 game season? I can't see how the price should be anything more than 11/10. They have at least a 50% chance of taking the title, don't they?

I honestly can't think of any team, ever, that I would want to back pre-season at 11/10 to win the Championship. It's a notoriously difficult and unpredictable league, as has been shown most recent seasons.

Certainly don't think they are 50% to win the title.

They start away at Fulham on a Friday night, a fixture I imagine is far from ideal. Followed by Hudds (H), Reading (H), Bristol City (A) and Brighton (H) before August comes to a close. Now that could be 15 points, but equally would anyone be massively shocked with a 5 point return from that? Huddersfield and Reading ain't gonna be fussed playing up at St James' Park, I'm sure Bristol City are looking forward to welcoming the barcodes down to cider country.

Why are they priced at 15/8? Is it all just down to Rafa staying on? A great manager obviously far too good for that level, but is it a novelty too far? I think Fred should oppose Newcastle as there simply isn't the value at under IMO, way way too short for a notoriously difficult division.

[hhyftrftdr]

Think if Norwich land McCormack then we should be hammering them.

[arbboy]

I wasn't sure if I should mention this, but seeing as the topic is being discussed; isn't Newcastle to win the championship at 15/8 a mega price?

Main rivals are probably Norwich, but Newcastle outscored them last season - and the toon now have a vastly improved squad too .. containing players with championship experience also. If that wasn't enough, surely a World class manager like Benitez vastly increases their chances over a 46 game season? I can't see how the price should be anything more than 11/10. They have at least a 50% chance of taking the title, don't they?

I honestly can't think of any team, ever, that I would want to back pre-season at 11/10 to win the Championship. It's a notoriously difficult and unpredictable league, as has been shown most recent seasons.

Certainly don't think they are 50% to win the title.

They start away at Fulham on a Friday night, a fixture I imagine is far from ideal. Followed by Hudds (H), Reading (H), Bristol City (A) and Brighton (H) before August comes to a close. Now that could be 15 points, but equally would anyone be massively shocked with a 5 point return from that? Huddersfield and Reading ain't gonna be fussed playing up at St James' Park, I'm sure Bristol City are looking forward to welcoming the barcodes down to cider country.

Why are they priced at 15/8? Is it all just down to Rafa staying on? A great manager obviously far too good for that level, but is it a novelty too far? I think Fred should oppose Newcastle as there simply isn't the value at under IMO, way way too short for a notoriously difficult division.

Just to add some context to this.  They have been backed at all rates down from 11/4 to 15/8.  That will take a not unsubstantial amount of cash to tie up at a short price for 10 months.  Most casual punters won't usually tie up a decent amount of cash backing a 2/1 shot over 10 months.  This usually implies it is more professional cash moving the price.

[Doobs]

I am amazed how quiet it is on day 1 of Goodwood

not a good day? nothing interesting?

School holidays and mistimed volunteering to take eldest and her friend out for the day.  First two races were v good betting heats.  Struggled with the rest in a short time.

[fatcatstu]

Anyone got any opinions on the Championship top scorer market
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/top-goalscorer

On another thread i asked this and Chompy said he wouldn't look much beyond Gayle

I gather Ross McCormick is the subject of a lot of interest from Norwich too. He's scored goals everywhere including in a poor Fulham side.

If he's being linked with another club, expect him to sign a new contract soon.

Boro were trying to sign him for 2 years, every time we got close, he signed a new one!

Gayle will tear defences in that division apart. Is Jerome still at Norwich? Would expect him to bag a few too if so?

[winshoes]

Was taking a look at some of the football markets for the season, this one is interesting. Top Championship London club

What do people think?
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/top-london-club

All three teams are rated pretty similar in the betting, yet the Staffs firm prices Brentford as the dog of the three at 3/1

Anyone got any opinions on the Championship top scorer market
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/top-goalscorer

Hello, QPR supporter here.
Even without my blue and white hooped glasses on but I would make Brentford big outsiders of three here.
Even allowing for the wealth of their owner, selling two of your best players to your two local rivals is a strange move.
Bidewell(left back) to Rangers, and Button(goalkeeper) to Fulham seems a big gamble to me.
I know pre-season results are difficult to evaluate, but our win away a PSV in a behind closed doors friendly was impressive.
We also have cleared out most of the deadwood from previous regimes, and look set for a better season without the pressure of previous seasons caused by us splashing the cash.
I think the 17/10 with WH above for top London championship team is much too big, but I understand if it is too short for you to tie up money for the season.
As an alternative I think the 11/1 with Lads for promotion is generous too.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/promotion


Recommend £20 @ 17/10, QPR top London in Championship.

[aaron1867]

I'm not sure about Wednesday yet, but talk of attacking options, we don't have a bad front line with Fletcher, Forestieri & Hooper...