Tips for Tikay

[superwomble]

Apologies if I'm missing something obvious here, but if you can back Norwich at 11 each way, therefore getting 3.5 to finish top 3, why wouldn't you back them outright then place the same amount on them to get promoted at 3.75?

[bergeroo]

Bournemouth currently available for 8/1 top half of the Premier League and 2/9 to finish bottom half.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-10-finish

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-finish-in-bottom-half

[arbboy]

You are taking on maths (proven to be unbeaten over time) not arbboy.  When would you ever back a horse ew in a 24 runner race at 1/4 1,2,3 and think you were having the best of it when the top of the market is 15/8 9, 10, 10, 12 ,12 16 16 20 20 and only 4 of the runners are 100/1 or bigger?    It would be tough to find much (if any) value betting 1/4 1,2,3,4 in a 24 runner race maths wise never mind 3 places.  

As a full time horse racing arber for several years i could count the number of times i found any place value in a 12-15 runner hcaps at 1/4 1,2,3 on one hand (never mind having 24 runners) whether the fav was 2/1 or 6/1 in these races.

The key to this market revolves around Newcastle and your view on that not the team you are backing.  I have no view on Norwich as a bet at 10/1 or 9/1.  I just know i would happily lay someone 1/4 1,2,3 ew in a 24 runner race without even thinking with a betting shape like this market has.  It would be hard to keep a straight face if they wanted the bet in person and i would feel like i was having their pants down.

Maths never my strong point

Just do not see it as a 24 runner horse race. I see it as a league where only 6 or 7 are in with a shout unless someone does a Leicester. Plus , don't see how Villa are the same price as Norwich. That is one match bet I will certainly be looking out for.

Skybet 330% ish (they are top price and joint top 11 teams out of 24 albeit they are all rags) bet365 place book comes to 340% (they are top or joint top 8 teams) paddy power (joint top 1 team) over 400%.  Pretty safe to say this isn't an ew betting heat.  Win prices can obviously still be wrong in this market but don't give away your win ev by taking a terrible ew price.  Just have double the amount on the win bet.

Just because something is a big price doesn't mean we should be backing it e/w as standard.  Conversely we should't always back a short price win only.  Many odds on shots are cracking ew bets.

[Doobs]

You are taking on maths (proven to be unbeaten over time) not arbboy.  When would you ever back a horse ew in a 24 runner race at 1/4 1,2,3 and think you were having the best of it when the top of the market is 15/8 9, 10, 10, 12 ,12 16 16 20 20 and only 4 of the runners are 100/1 or bigger?    It would be tough to find much (if any) value betting 1/4 1,2,3,4 in a 24 runner race maths wise never mind 3 places.  

As a full time horse racing arber for several years i could count the number of times i found any place value in a 12-15 runner hcaps at 1/4 1,2,3 on one hand (never mind having 24 runners) whether the fav was 2/1 or 6/1 in these races.

The key to this market revolves around Newcastle and your view on that not the team you are backing.  I have no view on Norwich as a bet at 10/1 or 9/1.  I just know i would happily lay someone 1/4 1,2,3 ew in a 24 runner race without even thinking with a betting shape like this market has.  It would be hard to keep a straight face if they wanted the bet in person and i would feel like i was having their pants down.

No idea how people think backing Norwich to top 3 place at 9/4 (and being forced to buy the variance of the win part of the bet as well) is a better option than taking 11/4 on them being promoted when there is one team that is big odds on to finish in one of those top 3 places you require.  The shape of the market massively works against you in this spot unless you are massively against Newcastle for whatever reason at the prices.  If Norwich finish 4th/5th/6th you effectively have a free bet on Norwich to go up (your top 3 bet will have lost) at 11/4 when they will be shorter to win the play offs.  If they finish 1st or 2nd your bet wins anyway at a bigger price.  The only downside of the bet  if you finish 3rd your bet can still win anyway (again at a bigger price).  I think i know which side of that fence i would rather be on.

I am amazed no-one is offering 1/4 1,2,3,4 tbh.  If this was a horse race half the firms would be offering 1/4 5 places.

Not disagreeing with your main point and haven't even looked at the market.  

But I don't think you were looking hard enough in 12 runner handicaps.  Quarter first 3 in a 12 runner handicap isn't far off quarter first 4 in a 16 runner one.  I'd say you were more likely to get one overly short one in a 12 runner race too.

[bookiebasher]

Apologies if I'm missing something obvious here, but if you can back Norwich at 11 each way, therefore getting 3.5 to finish top 3, why wouldn't you back them outright then place the same amount on them to get promoted at 3.75?

Good point. It's a market I never really looked at !

[arbboy]

Apologies if I'm missing something obvious here, but if you can back Norwich at 11 each way, therefore getting 3.5 to finish top 3, why wouldn't you back them outright then place the same amount on them to get promoted at 3.75?

Good point. It's a market I never really looked at !

Or just place double the amount win only and not take the bad value place bets.

[arbboy]

Bournemouth currently available for 8/1 top half of the Premier League and 2/9 to finish bottom half.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-10-finish

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-finish-in-bottom-half

Good spot.  So many of these 7 or 8% risk free tax free ROI spots on ante post football (mboro 8/13 to stay up and 2/1 to go down was another one last week) for 9 months to invest the ISA money in if you are lucky enough to be able to get on at these prices with books that are 100% solid regarding holding your money.

[arbboy]

You are taking on maths (proven to be unbeaten over time) not arbboy.  When would you ever back a horse ew in a 24 runner race at 1/4 1,2,3 and think you were having the best of it when the top of the market is 15/8 9, 10, 10, 12 ,12 16 16 20 20 and only 4 of the runners are 100/1 or bigger?    It would be tough to find much (if any) value betting 1/4 1,2,3,4 in a 24 runner race maths wise never mind 3 places.  

As a full time horse racing arber for several years i could count the number of times i found any place value in a 12-15 runner hcaps at 1/4 1,2,3 on one hand (never mind having 24 runners) whether the fav was 2/1 or 6/1 in these races.

The key to this market revolves around Newcastle and your view on that not the team you are backing.  I have no view on Norwich as a bet at 10/1 or 9/1.  I just know i would happily lay someone 1/4 1,2,3 ew in a 24 runner race without even thinking with a betting shape like this market has.  It would be hard to keep a straight face if they wanted the bet in person and i would feel like i was having their pants down.

No idea how people think backing Norwich to top 3 place at 9/4 (and being forced to buy the variance of the win part of the bet as well) is a better option than taking 11/4 on them being promoted when there is one team that is big odds on to finish in one of those top 3 places you require.  The shape of the market massively works against you in this spot unless you are massively against Newcastle for whatever reason at the prices.  If Norwich finish 4th/5th/6th you effectively have a free bet on Norwich to go up (your top 3 bet will have lost) at 11/4 when they will be shorter to win the play offs.  If they finish 1st or 2nd your bet wins anyway at a bigger price.  The only downside of the bet  if you finish 3rd your bet can still win anyway (again at a bigger price).  I think i know which side of that fence i would rather be on.

I am amazed no-one is offering 1/4 1,2,3,4 tbh.  If this was a horse race half the firms would be offering 1/4 5 places.

Not disagreeing with your main point and haven't even looked at the market.  

But I don't think you were looking hard enough in 12 runner handicaps.  Quarter first 3 in a 12 runner handicap isn't far off quarter first 4 in a 16 runner one.  I'd say you were more likely to get one overly short one in a 12 runner race too.

My arbing records would substantially disagree volume wise on which type of race threw up more opportunities.  Equally when you go racing every on course firm offers 1/4 123 on 12 runner hcaps.  Hardly any firms offer 1/4 1234 on 16 runner hcaps.  That is a bit of a clue as well.

Take a bog standard 4/1 fav in each race.  I would expect the 4/1 fav to be trading odds on in the betfair place market in the 16 runner race but odds against in the 12 runner race 8 times out of 10.

[superwomble]

Apologies if I'm missing something obvious here, but if you can back Norwich at 11 each way, therefore getting 3.5 to finish top 3, why wouldn't you back them outright then place the same amount on them to get promoted at 3.75?

Good point. It's a market I never really looked at !

Or just place double the amount win only and not take the bad value place bets.

Maybe so, but if you genuinely thought they'd finish top 3, and were hoping for the lucky scoop of being first, backing them each way when there are better odds to be promoted is madness.

[arbboy]

Apologies if I'm missing something obvious here, but if you can back Norwich at 11 each way, therefore getting 3.5 to finish top 3, why wouldn't you back them outright then place the same amount on them to get promoted at 3.75?

Good point. It's a market I never really looked at !

Or just place double the amount win only and not take the bad value place bets.

Maybe so, but if you genuinely thought they'd finish top 3, and were hoping for the lucky scoop of being first, backing them each way when there are better odds to be promoted is madness.

It isn't the same bet though (as explained earlier) although i agree with your point.  They can finish 3rd and not be promoted and you do your money backing promotion instead of top 3.

Don't make the mistake of thinking just because the promotion odds are better than the place odds there is an edge to be gained backing promotion over ew.  It is because the place book % are so bad that makes the promotion odds look good.  There is still plenty of juice in the promotion only books just less than the ew market (because it is such a bad heat to back ew in).

It is like saying i want to back heads v tails.  I can do it one way and get 4/6 or another market offers me 10/11.  It still isn't a bet at 10/11 just because one market is 4/6.

Skybet are top or joint top price 10 teams in their promotion market (way more than any other firm) and their promotion book is still bet to 330%.  Skybet's 150/1 Burton to be promoted is way too big for anyone looking for a huge priced ante post bet.  People are asking for 300/1 they win the league.  They could cop this bet finishing 6th.  Not sure if they will claim palp on this as it is so out of line but they are top price a lot of the rags in this market.  They are only offering 250/1 they win the league.

[NoCardDSC]

Sorry, am a bit busy this morning too.

Goodwood 3.10

We really ought to be backing Awtaad e/w.  I made a similar point at Royal Ascot.  There really isn't much between Galileo Gold, The Gurkha and Awtaad.  My favourite is Galileo Gold, but that is 2/1 and Awtaad is 6/1.  If I'd been a bit quicker we may have got 7/1, but meh.

Anyway b365 is 6/1 which is bang on betfair.  The place terms on a quarter first 3 qare just fantastic in this race because of the rags.

Thread can have 25 e/w of mine, but should take up to 75 e/w more if anybody else is willing.  

I am suggesting 100 e/w Awtaad at 6/1 with 365.  Really is a good bet in my eyes.

Thread has 25 e/w already if Tighty confirms.

edit.  If anyone puts a bet on for the extra 75 e/w and tighty doesn't confirm, I will happily take and ship before racing.  Cheers.

Assume those of us that can get on Skyybet - £25 on the nose - Awtaad. Money back if horse finishes 2nd or 3rd is a bet?

edit - ignore me!

[Doobs]

You are taking on maths (proven to be unbeaten over time) not arbboy.  When would you ever back a horse ew in a 24 runner race at 1/4 1,2,3 and think you were having the best of it when the top of the market is 15/8 9, 10, 10, 12 ,12 16 16 20 20 and only 4 of the runners are 100/1 or bigger?    It would be tough to find much (if any) value betting 1/4 1,2,3,4 in a 24 runner race maths wise never mind 3 places.  

As a full time horse racing arber for several years i could count the number of times i found any place value in a 12-15 runner hcaps at 1/4 1,2,3 on one hand (never mind having 24 runners) whether the fav was 2/1 or 6/1 in these races.

The key to this market revolves around Newcastle and your view on that not the team you are backing.  I have no view on Norwich as a bet at 10/1 or 9/1.  I just know i would happily lay someone 1/4 1,2,3 ew in a 24 runner race without even thinking with a betting shape like this market has.  It would be hard to keep a straight face if they wanted the bet in person and i would feel like i was having their pants down.

No idea how people think backing Norwich to top 3 place at 9/4 (and being forced to buy the variance of the win part of the bet as well) is a better option than taking 11/4 on them being promoted when there is one team that is big odds on to finish in one of those top 3 places you require.  The shape of the market massively works against you in this spot unless you are massively against Newcastle for whatever reason at the prices.  If Norwich finish 4th/5th/6th you effectively have a free bet on Norwich to go up (your top 3 bet will have lost) at 11/4 when they will be shorter to win the play offs.  If they finish 1st or 2nd your bet wins anyway at a bigger price.  The only downside of the bet  if you finish 3rd your bet can still win anyway (again at a bigger price).  I think i know which side of that fence i would rather be on.

I am amazed no-one is offering 1/4 1,2,3,4 tbh.  If this was a horse race half the firms would be offering 1/4 5 places.

Not disagreeing with your main point and haven't even looked at the market.  

But I don't think you were looking hard enough in 12 runner handicaps.  Quarter first 3 in a 12 runner handicap isn't far off quarter first 4 in a 16 runner one.  I'd say you were more likely to get one overly short one in a 12 runner race too.

My arbing records would substantially disagree volume wise on which type of race threw up more opportunities.  Equally when you go racing every on course firm offers 1/4 123 on 12 runner hcaps.  Hardly any firms offer 1/4 1234 on 16 runner hcaps.  That is a bit of a clue as well.

Take a bog standard 4/1 fav in each race.  I would expect the 4/1 fav to be trading odds on in the betfair place market in the 16 runner race but odds against in the 12 runner race 8 times out of 10.

I know arguing with you is just a waste of lifetime, but you said you could count them on the fingers of one hand.  And your first paragraph is just a complete straw man.  I never said 12 runner handicaps were better, just that you weren't looking hard enough if you found oppotunities as infrequently as you made out.

16 runner handicaps are better than 12 runners, but that doesn't mean there aren't fairly frequent opportunities in the latter.  Agreed?

[bergeroo]

Promo just for the 2pm race I think?

Sorry, am a bit busy this morning too.

Goodwood 3.10

We really ought to be backing Awtaad e/w.  I made a similar point at Royal Ascot.  There really isn't much between Galileo Gold, The Gurkha and Awtaad.  My favourite is Galileo Gold, but that is 2/1 and Awtaad is 6/1.  If I'd been a bit quicker we may have got 7/1, but meh.

Anyway b365 is 6/1 which is bang on betfair.  The place terms on a quarter first 3 qare just fantastic in this race because of the rags.

Thread can have 25 e/w of mine, but should take up to 75 e/w more if anybody else is willing.  

I am suggesting 100 e/w Awtaad at 6/1 with 365.  Really is a good bet in my eyes.

Thread has 25 e/w already if Tighty confirms.

edit.  If anyone puts a bet on for the extra 75 e/w and tighty doesn't confirm, I will happily take and ship before racing.  Cheers.

Assume those of us that can get on Skyybet - £25 on the nose - Awtaad. Money back if horse finishes 2nd or 3rd is a bet?

[arbboy]

You are taking on maths (proven to be unbeaten over time) not arbboy.  When would you ever back a horse ew in a 24 runner race at 1/4 1,2,3 and think you were having the best of it when the top of the market is 15/8 9, 10, 10, 12 ,12 16 16 20 20 and only 4 of the runners are 100/1 or bigger?    It would be tough to find much (if any) value betting 1/4 1,2,3,4 in a 24 runner race maths wise never mind 3 places.  

As a full time horse racing arber for several years i could count the number of times i found any place value in a 12-15 runner hcaps at 1/4 1,2,3 on one hand (never mind having 24 runners) whether the fav was 2/1 or 6/1 in these races.

The key to this market revolves around Newcastle and your view on that not the team you are backing.  I have no view on Norwich as a bet at 10/1 or 9/1.  I just know i would happily lay someone 1/4 1,2,3 ew in a 24 runner race without even thinking with a betting shape like this market has.  It would be hard to keep a straight face if they wanted the bet in person and i would feel like i was having their pants down.

No idea how people think backing Norwich to top 3 place at 9/4 (and being forced to buy the variance of the win part of the bet as well) is a better option than taking 11/4 on them being promoted when there is one team that is big odds on to finish in one of those top 3 places you require.  The shape of the market massively works against you in this spot unless you are massively against Newcastle for whatever reason at the prices.  If Norwich finish 4th/5th/6th you effectively have a free bet on Norwich to go up (your top 3 bet will have lost) at 11/4 when they will be shorter to win the play offs.  If they finish 1st or 2nd your bet wins anyway at a bigger price.  The only downside of the bet  if you finish 3rd your bet can still win anyway (again at a bigger price).  I think i know which side of that fence i would rather be on.

I am amazed no-one is offering 1/4 1,2,3,4 tbh.  If this was a horse race half the firms would be offering 1/4 5 places.

Not disagreeing with your main point and haven't even looked at the market.  

But I don't think you were looking hard enough in 12 runner handicaps.  Quarter first 3 in a 12 runner handicap isn't far off quarter first 4 in a 16 runner one.  I'd say you were more likely to get one overly short one in a 12 runner race too.

My arbing records would substantially disagree volume wise on which type of race threw up more opportunities.  Equally when you go racing every on course firm offers 1/4 123 on 12 runner hcaps.  Hardly any firms offer 1/4 1234 on 16 runner hcaps.  That is a bit of a clue as well.

Take a bog standard 4/1 fav in each race.  I would expect the 4/1 fav to be trading odds on in the betfair place market in the 16 runner race but odds against in the 12 runner race 8 times out of 10.

I know arguing with you is just a waste of lifetime, but you said you could count them on the fingers of one hand.  And your first paragraph is just a complete straw man.  I never said 12 runner handicaps were better, just that you weren't looking hard enough if you found oppotunities as infrequently as you made out.

16 runner handicaps are better than 12 runners, but that doesn't mean there aren't fairly frequent opportunities in the latter.  Agreed?

Sure i agree (i did say 12-15 runner races tbf not just 12 runner handicaps - 14/15 runner hcaps i would't even look at from an ew betting angle generally) but the opportunities are generally tiny edge wise or neutral ev compared (so after commission there was never a profitable arb spot) to 16 runner races but you did say the bolded statement which is wrong tbh.  They are not even close to being similar from my vast experience of arbing them day in day out.  I can't think of a 12 runner race where i ever arbed more than a couple of horses.  I can think of 16 runner races where i have arbed 12 horses in the race all profitably after commission.

[NoCardDSC]

Promo just for the 2pm race I think?

Sorry, am a bit busy this morning too.

Goodwood 3.10

We really ought to be backing Awtaad e/w.  I made a similar point at Royal Ascot.  There really isn't much between Galileo Gold, The Gurkha and Awtaad.  My favourite is Galileo Gold, but that is 2/1 and Awtaad is 6/1.  If I'd been a bit quicker we may have got 7/1, but meh.

Anyway b365 is 6/1 which is bang on betfair.  The place terms on a quarter first 3 qare just fantastic in this race because of the rags.

Thread can have 25 e/w of mine, but should take up to 75 e/w more if anybody else is willing.  

I am suggesting 100 e/w Awtaad at 6/1 with 365.  Really is a good bet in my eyes.

Thread has 25 e/w already if Tighty confirms.

edit.  If anyone puts a bet on for the extra 75 e/w and tighty doesn't confirm, I will happily take and ship before racing.  Cheers.

Assume those of us that can get on Skyybet - £25 on the nose - Awtaad. Money back if horse finishes 2nd or 3rd is a bet?

Yup, got confused - knew it was just for the first but seen Doobs had tipped both the 2pm and 310pm.

Will swerve I think