Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Northants chasing 153

Can I say anything yet?

[Doobs]

Northants chasing 153

Can I say anything yet?

Now is good

[Tal]

Northants chasing 153

Can I say anything yet?

[tikay]

Cricket's T20 Cup Quarters are next week, starting monday

Notts v Essex
Northants v Mddlesex
Gloucs v Durham
Glamorgan v Yorks

winners go through to finals day in a few weeks time

There is a real opportunity here because the outright betting market has a big bias against the smaller teams

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/natwest-t20-blast/winner

Glamorgan have the best net run rate in the whole competition, the least number of runs conceded, a 4-2 record at home. Finished second in their group with a bigger points total than five of their other quarter final sides (the top four in each of the two groups progressed).

One of the most impressive sides in this competition this season they are chalked up as 9-1 fifth favourites with a home quarter to come

Glamorgan has few star players. Shaun Tait, the Aussie quick is the overseas.  Colin Ingram, the former South African is one of the best big hitters in the county game, fifth on the runscorer lists in T20 this season. With the ball, van der Gugten and Michael Hogan are 6th and 9th in the competition this season on wickets taken.

Glamorgan play fashionable and successful Yorkshire at home in the quarter-finals next week. Yorkshire are 1.68 to win their quarter final. They are too short for this game.

We've backed Northamptonshire on here for about 4 years off and on. Another hopelessly unfashionable small (and completely skint ) county. I stopped backing them when they lost David Willey to Yorkshire in the off-season but this was hopelessly premature. While they don't have the resources to compete in the 4 day game they remain a really good one day side, through to the quarters in both this and the one day cup

They finished second in their group and have a fine home record yet its evens each of two for the Middlesex game. We can get them at 15/2 outright

Possibly the most rotund county team they are stuffed with big hitters and canny one day bowlers. In Ben Duckett, who was mentioned on here two years ago, they have THE emerging young county player. going to be exceptionally good.

Northants won it in 2013, were runners up last year.

suggest £20 e/w (1/2 1,2) Northants 15/2 Betfred and Glamorgan 9/1 William Hill

hopefully get both through to finals day and a nice sweat

If you crossed out the names Northants and Glamorgan and put Surrey and Lancashire next to these squads and records this season they'd be 7/2 favourites in the betting alongside Notts

QFT, great work Tighty, & we certainly got that sweat, & a tidy lump of profit.

Love it when folks on here spot genuine value.

[tikay]

SPOTY (groan) talk.

In a year in which the betting is dominated by Olympians, interesting to see Murray is generally 6/5 or 11/10, Mo is 5/2 & Laura Trott 7/1. (Have ignored Stan James prices, which are ool, as nobody can get on with them).


  http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner


Beware of the place market, they vary, with one third odds 2 places, or one fifth 3 places.

Guess it might be recency bias, but Mo looks surprisingly big at 5/2.

[Tonibell]

Reputational risk with Mo. Four months to go and hacks are more likely to subject him to scrutiny once the Olympic afterglow fades.

[booder]

Re Northants

Thank you Tighty.

[tikay]

Reputational risk with Mo. Four months to go and hacks are more likely to subject him to scrutiny once the Olympic afterglow fades.

Ahh yes, fair point.

Such a shame that doping & corruption have, in some ways, ruined the majority of sports.

On which note, the head of the Irish Olympic Committee is currently in a cell in Brazil, & likely to remain there for some time.

[BigAdz]

SPOTY (groan) talk.

In a year in which the betting is dominated by Olympians, interesting to see Murray is generally 6/5 or 11/10, Mo is 5/2 & Laura Trott 7/1. (Have ignored Stan James prices, which are ool, as nobody can get on with them).


  http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner


Beware of the place market, they vary, with one third odds 2 places, or one fifth 3 places.

Guess it might be recency bias, but Mo looks surprisingly big at 5/2.

As a backer of Mo in the past for SPOTY, I just don't think the voting public have ever taken to him, the way his achievements deserve.

I would be surprised if that changed.

He has plenty of opposition and names like Kenney and Trott, that have slipped under the radar have achieved just as much, and are getting much more recognition this time round. We know the public love a cyclist, and as Tonibell suggests, they won't be subjected to the inevitable post Olympic scrutiny.

No recommend, but just a feeling that, whilst Mo could win, he is no value at that price, based on his previous showing in SPOTY.

[Tal]

I might be wrong, but I think the BBC will play on the Trott-Kenny relationship and the image of the games will be Trott cheering on Kenny in the Keirin. I find it hard to fathom why Kenny is a bigger price from a logical perspective because his achievements surpass hers, but he shuns any publicity and that inevitably hurts his chances.

We have come to expect Mo to win. (Ridiculous, isn't it?) So I just wonder whether that will count against him.

Max Whitlock is very unlucky because he's done what no other Brit has accomplished...twice...in one night.  

Murray would need to get close to winning the US Open to keep his achievements in mind, but he has won 2 events on BBC screens, which helps.

Is Nick Skelton this year's Jo Pavey? Dujardin?

[Tonibell]

Stupid question: Is there any chance the Beeb could award a joint SPOTY to Trott and Kenny? If so, could it be worth a bet on both for the double scoop?

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

Not a good week. First my tennis bod wins 2-0, with 6-0 in the 2nd set and promptly decides he's too injured to continue in the tournament. Then my rugby league chaps take the lead with a minute to go and all they have to do is catch the ball from the kick off, which they fail to do and concede a try in the last play of the game.

Undaunted I will try a couple of try scorer bets. First off anyone with an account with the unmentionable company should back Rhys Hanbury to score for Widnes today @ 11/10. My second bet, which someone may kindly do for us is Ukuma Taai to score for Huddersfield against Batley. He is 7/4 with Paddys.

Just my 2 pennythworth, but Murray for SPOTY. He already has the Olympic gold, Wimbledon, and the US open is looking very likely, and also in the semis of the Davis cup

[TightEnd]

Sports Personality (Murray fav ahead of Farah, Trott, Kenny) this was SPOTY result from Olympics year 2012

Farah doesn't appeal to a segment of the population (see Daily Mail comments sections)

[TightEnd]

eh up

a reminder that this is a completely skint county, the ECB helps it survive with handouts

regularly lose players they develop to the top counties, with more to follow (Stone has already left for Warwickshire to follow Willey, Brooks and others out the door. Duckett next)

lots of the older players are cast offs, reasonably unfit by professional sport standards. They are a close unit though, very well captained, plenty of big hitting ability too and that bit of stardust in Duckett, for now

Click to see full-size image.

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[HutchGF]

eh up

a reminder that this is a completely skint county, the ECB helps it survive with handouts

regularly lose players they develop to the top counties, with more to follow (Stone has already left for Warwickshire to follow Willey, Brooks and others out the door. Duckett next)

lots of the older players are cast offs, reasonably unfit by professional sport standards. They are a close unit though, very well captained, plenty of big hitting ability too and that bit of stardust in Duckett, for now

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

I thought Wakely captained the side outstandingly well in both games - a real leader who clearly has played a big part in moulding this team together. Duckett is a star and will play for England shortly.