Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Suggest we put £25 each way on Left Hand in the Arc.  She is 20/1 quarter first 3.  Nothing flashy about her.  Improved all season.  Lost the french oaks by half a length, then won her next two by about the same.  3 year old fillies have a good record in this too, though obviously she isn't Treve yet.

Can only get the 25/1 3 places combo with 365, so pls confirm you want it on.

Hi Doobs,

Slightly confiused - are you offering to place the bet for us?

If so, yes please.

Yes if that wasn't clear.

Aiden O'Brien 1-2-3 Found, Highland Reel, Order of St George. 

1-2-3 in the Arc is quite something. Has any other Trainer ever achieved that?

No idea.  All by Galileo too, dare say nobody has achieved that. 

[tikay]

Suggest we put £25 each way on Left Hand in the Arc.  She is 20/1 quarter first 3.  Nothing flashy about her.  Improved all season.  Lost the french oaks by half a length, then won her next two by about the same.  3 year old fillies have a good record in this too, though obviously she isn't Treve yet.

Can only get the 25/1 3 places combo with 365, so pls confirm you want it on.

Hi Doobs,

Slightly confiused - are you offering to place the bet for us?

If so, yes please.

Yes if that wasn't clear.

Aiden O'Brien 1-2-3 Found, Highland Reel, Order of St George. 

1-2-3 in the Arc is quite something. Has any other Trainer ever achieved that?

No idea.  All by Galileo too, dare say nobody has achieved that. 

His Stud fee, which was €350,000 a pop, might go up then. It's astonishing how much influence Northern Dancer has on modern thoroughbred bloodlines. Lord only knows how many Group One winners Vincent O'Brien & Robert Sangster had out of Northern Dancer progeny.

[Tal]

A quick rundown of our long term NFL positions.

Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North (£50 @ 2/1)

This bet looked dead when the quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater, went down with a hideous injury in training, which has ended his season and had players praying over him while the ambulance came. Their chances have hardly been helped by their great running back, Adrian "All Day" Peterson, getting injured and being out for at least half the season.

And, yet, if there's one thing we learned last year, it's that you can still win games if your defense is sensational. Well the Vikes D have been precisely that. Moreover, the Win-Win trade with the Eagles to bring in Sam Bradford has enabled their offense to be sufficiently safe and competent to score enough points to win games.

They have beaten Tennessee (as expected, although with the injuries no one was sure), Green Bay and Carolina to be 3-0 after three games. They play the New York Giants at home tonight. Win and they go at a game and a half clear (Green Bay have a game in hand but are behind on tie break, having lost to Minnesota already).


Arizona Cardinals to win the Super Bowl (£20 @ 12/1)

From the sublime to the ridiculous.

The Cards looked like a very good team last year. They will be this year...when they turn up.

They lost to New England narrowly week one, hammered Tampa Bay, got spanked in Buffalo and lost again last night to divisional rivals Los Angeles Rams. 2-2 isn't terrible by any means but they've not got going on offense and that's where they are strongest on paper.

The next two games, in San Francisco and at home against the New York Jets, represent an ideal chance to get the passing game working again, because the following two, in Seattle and against Carolina, will be much stiffer tests.

It ain't how you start, it's how you finish...right?


San Francisco 49ers to have the NFL's worst record (£50 @ 7/1)

...which segues nicely into our cellar dweller bet.

The 49ers started the season well by beating Los Angeles but have since lost more predictably to Carolina, Seattle and Dallas. This is the team with the toughest schedule in the league and it's certainly a live bet.

Of note, though, one team (Cleveland Browns) is 0-4 and THIRTEEN teams have one win out of their four games this season.

Arizona @ San Francisco next weekend. Fairly obvious who we want to win that one.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers total points over 350.5 (£22 @ 10/11)

Light and shade for the Buccs this season. Their scores this season:

31
7
32
7

So that's 77 points across 4 games, at an average of 19.25. The required 351 points means an average of 21.9, so we are a little behind. It is hard to tell whether this is a good bet when we've had to endure such dramatic ranges in offense performance. We now need to average 22.8 across the remaining 12 games, so not much difference.


Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers) to get the most receiving yards (£50 @ 9/2)

Currently on 365 yards after four games, Brown is in fifth place. He might be bumped down to sixth tonight if Stefon Diggs gets a par score. Third is 468 right now.

He's not been used in the deep as much as we'd probably like this season, but it's early days and getting the supreme running back LeVeon Bell back from suspension will help for sure. They do need another wide receiver to step up, though, to help keep the pass defenses honest.


David Johnson (Arizona Cardinals) to have the most rushing yards (£25 each way (1,2,3, 1/4) at 18/1)

Johnson is in 7th place currently, with 300 yards through four games. The game situations have not helped, with the Cardinals not being ahead as much and as often as we desired, so they have thrown the ball more than we wanted in the 4th quarter.

On the plus side, he is only 52 yards out of the place money for now, so an improved offense would make a difference.

[The Camel]

The struggles of Arizona and Carolina through 4 weeks are completely mystifying

[TightEnd]

The struggles of Arizona and Carolina through 4 weeks are completely mystifying

Carolina lost josh norman to free agency and he locked down one side of the field. They are $19m under the cap and didn't do much in the off-season to shore the roster up, particularly in the secondary which is getting torched (though julio will do that to many teams especially now he has the top quarterback we've always loved Matt Ryan playing so well).

to leave a superbowl team $19m under-invested in their "window to win" (the NFL being a cyclical game in terms of roster construction) is remiss, really

Arizona, meh. Carson Palmer hasn't been the same since his finger injury in the play offs, with hindsight. Most disappointing so far

[nellberg]

Update on zampa series bet. so far he's really struggled on some batsman-friendly decks and only taken 1 wicket. The more positive news is that the leader currently only has 3 wickets. The seamers (barring Hastings) will be rotated so he still has a shot, but could obviously do with an improved performance in the next game. 3 games of the series to go

[Dekka]

Expect Alistair Brownlee to drift in the SPOTY markets - just been "outed" for TUE by the hackers. 

http://fancybear.net/pages/6.html

[McGlashan]

Expect Alistair Brownlee to drift in the SPOTY markets - just been "outed" for TUE by the hackers. 

http://fancybear.net/pages/6.html

Considering the thread aren't fans of Mo Farah it's hard to see Andy Murray finishing outside the top 3. Sporting or victa are still 1/5 3 places and 11/4 for the win.

[hhyftrftdr]

Not the sharpest bunch down under....at this weekends GP;

http://www.smh.com.au/world/nine-australians-jailed-in-malaysia-for-flag-underpants-stunt-20161003-grtziu.html

[Doobs]

summary of ryder cup bets

Ryder Cup Top European   rose   6/1   100      £50 e/w 1/4 1,2,3
ryder cup top american   reed   7/1   100      £50 e/w 1/4 1,2,3
ryder cup top american   walker 18/1 60   £30 e/w 1/4 1,2,3
ryder cup   europe   9/4   25            
ryder cup top american   Kuchar   11/1   20            
Ryder Cup Top Combined Points Scorer kuchar   18/1   50 £25 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4

i am travelling most of the morning but i am sure tikay will look in for any more

Only Reed scored in the end, after Rose's miss on the last, and a pretty surprising late surge by Kaymer did us for a tie on the place on Kuchar.  A decent profit in the end, even if we may have ended up with the wrong bet on Reed.  Will have to sort out another transfer to Tikay. 

Not sure what price Pieters was for top combined scorer when the day 1 pairings were announced.  Bookies must have loved that result.

Wp bergeroo.  The match had started before I saw your post.
 

Great work doobs, thank you. Don't forget to deduct what I owe you for the Arc bet.

Sent this just now.

[Tal]

A quick rundown of our long term NFL positions.

Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North (£50 @ 2/1)

This bet looked dead when the quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater, went down with a hideous injury in training, which has ended his season and had players praying over him while the ambulance came. Their chances have hardly been helped by their great running back, Adrian "All Day" Peterson, getting injured and being out for at least half the season.

And, yet, if there's one thing we learned last year, it's that you can still win games if your defense is sensational. Well the Vikes D have been precisely that. Moreover, the Win-Win trade with the Eagles to bring in Sam Bradford has enabled their offense to be sufficiently safe and competent to score enough points to win games.

They have beaten Tennessee (as expected, although with the injuries no one was sure), Green Bay and Carolina to be 3-0 after three games. They play the New York Giants at home tonight. Win and they go at a game and a half clear (Green Bay have a game in hand but are behind on tie break, having lost to Minnesota already).


Arizona Cardinals to win the Super Bowl (£20 @ 12/1)

From the sublime to the ridiculous.

The Cards looked like a very good team last year. They will be this year...when they turn up.

They lost to New England narrowly week one, hammered Tampa Bay, got spanked in Buffalo and lost again last night to divisional rivals Los Angeles Rams. 2-2 isn't terrible by any means but they've not got going on offense and that's where they are strongest on paper.

The next two games, in San Francisco and at home against the New York Jets, represent an ideal chance to get the passing game working again, because the following two, in Seattle and against Carolina, will be much stiffer tests.

It ain't how you start, it's how you finish...right?


San Francisco 49ers to have the NFL's worst record (£50 @ 7/1)

...which segues nicely into our cellar dweller bet.

The 49ers started the season well by beating Los Angeles but have since lost more predictably to Carolina, Seattle and Dallas. This is the team with the toughest schedule in the league and it's certainly a live bet.

Of note, though, one team (Cleveland Browns) is 0-4 and THIRTEEN teams have one win out of their four games this season.

Arizona @ San Francisco next weekend. Fairly obvious who we want to win that one.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers total points over 350.5 (£22 @ 10/11)

Light and shade for the Buccs this season. Their scores this season:

31
7
32
7

So that's 77 points across 4 games, at an average of 19.25. The required 351 points means an average of 21.9, so we are a little behind. It is hard to tell whether this is a good bet when we've had to endure such dramatic ranges in offense performance. We now need to average 22.8 across the remaining 12 games, so not much difference.


Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers) to get the most receiving yards (£50 @ 9/2)

Currently on 365 yards after four games, Brown is in fifth place. He might be bumped down to sixth tonight if Stefon Diggs gets a par score. Third is 468 right now.

He's not been used in the deep as much as we'd probably like this season, but it's early days and getting the supreme running back LeVeon Bell back from suspension will help for sure. They do need another wide receiver to step up, though, to help keep the pass defenses honest.


David Johnson (Arizona Cardinals) to have the most rushing yards (£25 each way (1,2,3, 1/4) at 18/1)

Johnson is in 7th place currently, with 300 yards through four games. The game situations have not helped, with the Cardinals not being ahead as much and as often as we desired, so they have thrown the ball more than we wanted in the 4th quarter.

On the plus side, he is only 52 yards out of the place money for now, so an improved offense would make a difference.

Two things to add to this from overnight:

1. Minnesota beat the Giants 24-10 last night, in what looks from the stats to have been a comfortable victory. They're now 4-0 in the division and looking very impressive.

2. The San Francisco 49ers have lost their best player to a season-ending injury. Navorro Bowman is a linebacker (they stand just behind the defensive linemen and play a sort of "back of the diamond" equivalent role of helping to defend against threats through the air, on the ground and sometimes even getting to the quarterback themselves).

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2667379-navorro-bowman-injury-update-49ers-lb-out-for-season-with-torn-achilles

He's their Patrick Viera/Roy Keane and a huge loss for a team that is already short in that department. Sad for him and for the NFL, because he's a fantastic player to watch. It does, nevertheless, help our bet.

[tikay]

A quick rundown of our long term NFL positions.

Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North (£50 @ 2/1)

This bet looked dead when the quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater, went down with a hideous injury in training, which has ended his season and had players praying over him while the ambulance came. Their chances have hardly been helped by their great running back, Adrian "All Day" Peterson, getting injured and being out for at least half the season.

And, yet, if there's one thing we learned last year, it's that you can still win games if your defense is sensational. Well the Vikes D have been precisely that. Moreover, the Win-Win trade with the Eagles to bring in Sam Bradford has enabled their offense to be sufficiently safe and competent to score enough points to win games.

They have beaten Tennessee (as expected, although with the injuries no one was sure), Green Bay and Carolina to be 3-0 after three games. They play the New York Giants at home tonight. Win and they go at a game and a half clear (Green Bay have a game in hand but are behind on tie break, having lost to Minnesota already).


Arizona Cardinals to win the Super Bowl (£20 @ 12/1)

From the sublime to the ridiculous.

The Cards looked like a very good team last year. They will be this year...when they turn up.

They lost to New England narrowly week one, hammered Tampa Bay, got spanked in Buffalo and lost again last night to divisional rivals Los Angeles Rams. 2-2 isn't terrible by any means but they've not got going on offense and that's where they are strongest on paper.

The next two games, in San Francisco and at home against the New York Jets, represent an ideal chance to get the passing game working again, because the following two, in Seattle and against Carolina, will be much stiffer tests.

It ain't how you start, it's how you finish...right?


San Francisco 49ers to have the NFL's worst record (£50 @ 7/1)

...which segues nicely into our cellar dweller bet.

The 49ers started the season well by beating Los Angeles but have since lost more predictably to Carolina, Seattle and Dallas. This is the team with the toughest schedule in the league and it's certainly a live bet.

Of note, though, one team (Cleveland Browns) is 0-4 and THIRTEEN teams have one win out of their four games this season.

Arizona @ San Francisco next weekend. Fairly obvious who we want to win that one.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers total points over 350.5 (£22 @ 10/11)

Light and shade for the Buccs this season. Their scores this season:

31
7
32
7

So that's 77 points across 4 games, at an average of 19.25. The required 351 points means an average of 21.9, so we are a little behind. It is hard to tell whether this is a good bet when we've had to endure such dramatic ranges in offense performance. We now need to average 22.8 across the remaining 12 games, so not much difference.


Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers) to get the most receiving yards (£50 @ 9/2)

Currently on 365 yards after four games, Brown is in fifth place. He might be bumped down to sixth tonight if Stefon Diggs gets a par score. Third is 468 right now.

He's not been used in the deep as much as we'd probably like this season, but it's early days and getting the supreme running back LeVeon Bell back from suspension will help for sure. They do need another wide receiver to step up, though, to help keep the pass defenses honest.


David Johnson (Arizona Cardinals) to have the most rushing yards (£25 each way (1,2,3, 1/4) at 18/1)

Johnson is in 7th place currently, with 300 yards through four games. The game situations have not helped, with the Cardinals not being ahead as much and as often as we desired, so they have thrown the ball more than we wanted in the 4th quarter.

On the plus side, he is only 52 yards out of the place money for now, so an improved offense would make a difference.

Two things to add to this from overnight:

1. Minnesota beat the Giants 24-10 last night, in what looks from the stats to have been a comfortable victory. They're now 4-0 in the division and looking very impressive.

2. The San Francisco 49ers have lost their best player to a season-ending injury. Navorro Bowman is a linebacker (they stand just behind the defensive linemen and play a sort of "back of the diamond" equivalent role of helping to defend against threats through the air, on the ground and sometimes even getting to the quarterback themselves).

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2667379-navorro-bowman-injury-update-49ers-lb-out-for-season-with-torn-achilles

He's their Patrick Viera/Roy Keane and a huge loss for a team that is already short in that department. Sad for him and for the NFL, because he's a fantastic player to watch. It does, nevertheless, help our bet.

Good stuff Tal, & thanks for the Update.

[tikay]

summary of ryder cup bets

Ryder Cup Top European   rose   6/1   100      £50 e/w 1/4 1,2,3
ryder cup top american   reed   7/1   100      £50 e/w 1/4 1,2,3
ryder cup top american   walker 18/1 60   £30 e/w 1/4 1,2,3
ryder cup   europe   9/4   25            
ryder cup top american   Kuchar   11/1   20            
Ryder Cup Top Combined Points Scorer kuchar   18/1   50 £25 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4

i am travelling most of the morning but i am sure tikay will look in for any more

Only Reed scored in the end, after Rose's miss on the last, and a pretty surprising late surge by Kaymer did us for a tie on the place on Kuchar.  A decent profit in the end, even if we may have ended up with the wrong bet on Reed.  Will have to sort out another transfer to Tikay. 

Not sure what price Pieters was for top combined scorer when the day 1 pairings were announced.  Bookies must have loved that result.

Wp bergeroo.  The match had started before I saw your post.
 

Great work doobs, thank you. Don't forget to deduct what I owe you for the Arc bet.

Sent this just now.

Always nice to wake up to posts like that.

Thanks David, safely received. 

[horseplayer]

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/oct/04/oliver-burke-england-scotland-rb-leipzig-nottingham-forest

[Chompy]

Racebets are 1-3 about Josie Gordon being top apprentice jockey. Should be 1-1000. Good luck getting on though.