Tips for Tikay

[baldock92]

I think we should be on the San Antonio Spurs this season. They looked very impressive in their season opener against big favourites Golden State, winning comfortable 129-100. They have a very good side with a few players, mainly Kawahi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge, capable of putting up big numbers each night. Add this to the experience of Tony Parker at point guard, Pau Gasol at centre, and with players such as Manu Ginobili to come off the bench, they have a very good side. As well as going forward they are an extremely good defensive team, one of the best if not the best last season and they continued to look solid in the season opener.

I believe, with the majority of the focus being on the Warriors this season, the price for the spurs is too big. They are available at 9/1 to win the championship (skaii or boyles), would take 8/1 if we can't get on with these. To win the Western conference they are best priced 5/1 (366, the irish lot, b-fair etc). I'm not good with bet sizes but I reckon around £30-£50 on each would provide a good season long sweat.

[rinswun]

I think we should be backing PNE at home to toon at 4/1. I don't think any team should be 4/1 at home to Newcastle, especially one as in form as PNE.

I like this as a buy low candidate after their 6-0 loss in the cup tonight if you can get some of the 5.5 thats left on betfair, after 5% commission just about beats the 5.25 from 366 and a few others

They made 9 changes against aand played with 10 men for an hour. They got off to a shaky start but are unbeaten in their last 5 league games against some tidy sides (Norwich, Birmingham, Brighton, Huddersfield, Villa)

Newcastle obviously a very good side and worthy favourites for the lot but I think theres enough room in the price

I was at the Brighton/Preston game. Was 2-2 by score only. They should have been beaten by about six or seven. Scored with their only two shots, one of which was a genuine open goal due to a mixup between the Brighton full back and keeper. Not sure that it has much impact for this game particularly but I'd be wanting much bigger than fives against a Newcastle team who'd probably be a comfortable top 10 prem side at the moment.

Comfortable top 10 prem side!

Got a manager who'd comfortably be amongst the 10 best in the premier league who has players who have bought into what he's selling. After a brief bedding in period they've taken 31 points from 36, GD of +19 when there are only four other teams who have scored at least 19. It's not just the results but the extremely confident nature of the results. Go onto any Championship club forum and you'll see a thread titled 'are we playing for second place?' The overriding feeling is yes.

As per the Prem, I'd make them favourites on a neutral ground against Burnley, Hull, Sunderland, Swansea, Boro, West Brom, Palace, Watford (;-)). So maybe not comfortably top 10 but certainly in the mix for that 8-12 region.

[DungBeetle]

I think we should be backing PNE at home to toon at 4/1. I don't think any team should be 4/1 at home to Newcastle, especially one as in form as PNE.

I like this as a buy low candidate after their 6-0 loss in the cup tonight if you can get some of the 5.5 thats left on betfair, after 5% commission just about beats the 5.25 from 366 and a few others

They made 9 changes against aand played with 10 men for an hour. They got off to a shaky start but are unbeaten in their last 5 league games against some tidy sides (Norwich, Birmingham, Brighton, Huddersfield, Villa)

Newcastle obviously a very good side and worthy favourites for the lot but I think theres enough room in the price

I was at the Brighton/Preston game. Was 2-2 by score only. They should have been beaten by about six or seven. Scored with their only two shots, one of which was a genuine open goal due to a mixup between the Brighton full back and keeper. Not sure that it has much impact for this game particularly but I'd be wanting much bigger than fives against a Newcastle team who'd probably be a comfortable top 10 prem side at the moment.

Comfortable top 10 prem side!

Got a manager who'd comfortably be amongst the 10 best in the premier league who has players who have bought into what he's selling. After a brief bedding in period they've taken 31 points from 36, GD of +19 when there are only four other teams who have scored at least 19. It's not just the results but the extremely confident nature of the results. Go onto any Championship club forum and you'll see a thread titled 'are we playing for second place?' The overriding feeling is yes.

As per the Prem, I'd make them favourites on a neutral ground against Burnley, Hull, Sunderland, Swansea, Boro, West Brom, Palace, Watford (;-)). So maybe not comfortably top 10 but certainly in the mix for that 8-12 region.

I'm sure you'll likely win the Champ.  But as for the Premier we'll have to wait and see.  On face value if I was to make the below equation I don't think my answer would be top 10

Relegated team plus (Ritchie and Dwight) minus (sissoko and janmaat and wjnaaldum)

[DungBeetle]

I reckon Watford should disband if Blonde had their way . They would be underdogs against the team they beat 3 times last season and even Tighty would rather do the housework than watch them on TV! 

[rinswun]

I'm a Brentford fan but it seems to me that they were relegated last year due to grave mismanagement and the inability to get those players playing. Rafa has turned that ship around and it's almost been a case of addition by subtraction with some of those names (and others).

[bergeroo]

Actually a tough opener for the Warriors against the second best (and possibly best coached side) in the West. Could take a while for all pieces to fit together for Golden State. As for the Spurs, yeah, tonnes and tonnes of experience, you'd wonder how the old bodies will hold up for the whole season and if they can avoid injuries.

There are other ways to get onside with them too if you like them.

Kawaii Leonard is 4/1 for defensive player of the year with Laddies. He won it two years in a row... Price unchanged from yesterday. I think I like this bet actually. Other players won it multiple times in a row, so it is not like they are going to give it to someone else to mix it up. I'd expect a bit of a backlash against the Warriors in terms of awards and think that people may be looking to give them elsewhere this year. Draymond Green of the Warriors is second favourite and has been second for the last two years.

Also with Lads, best regular season record 6/1
http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/best-regular-season-record

 

I think we should be on the San Antonio Spurs this season. They looked very impressive in their season opener against big favourites Golden State, winning comfortable 129-100. They have a very good side with a few players, mainly Kawahi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge, capable of putting up big numbers each night. Add this to the experience of Tony Parker at point guard, Pau Gasol at centre, and with players such as Manu Ginobili to come off the bench, they have a very good side. As well as going forward they are an extremely good defensive team, one of the best if not the best last season and they continued to look solid in the season opener.

I believe, with the majority of the focus being on the Warriors this season, the price for the spurs is too big. They are available at 9/1 to win the championship (skaii or boyles), would take 8/1 if we can't get on with these. To win the Western conference they are best priced 5/1 (366, the irish lot, b-fair etc). I'm not good with bet sizes but I reckon around £30-£50 on each would provide a good season long sweat.

[TightEnd]

I think we should be on the San Antonio Spurs this season. They looked very impressive in their season opener against big favourites Golden State, winning comfortable 129-100. They have a very good side with a few players, mainly Kawahi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge, capable of putting up big numbers each night. Add this to the experience of Tony Parker at point guard, Pau Gasol at centre, and with players such as Manu Ginobili to come off the bench, they have a very good side. As well as going forward they are an extremely good defensive team, one of the best if not the best last season and they continued to look solid in the season opener.

I believe, with the majority of the focus being on the Warriors this season, the price for the spurs is too big. They are available at 9/1 to win the championship (skaii or boyles), would take 8/1 if we can't get on with these. To win the Western conference they are best priced 5/1 (366, the irish lot, b-fair etc). I'm not good with bet sizes but I reckon around £30-£50 on each would provide a good season long sweat.

opinions please

i know nothing about NBA so am flailing around in the dark having to decide on my own :-)

[baldock92]

The spurs are pretty much always going to end up somewhere between 1-4th you'd think, unless there were some catastrophic injury problems. To get to the finals they'd more than likely have to beat the warriors over the 7 game series. The Spurs showed today they can limit Golden State, due to their superior defence. Still very early days obviously, but the price definitely seems too big IMO.

The Kawahi Leonard defensive player @ 4/1 seems a great spot as well. Could be some funking for San Antonio this season if we get a little portfolio going!

[baldock92]

Apologies for the multiple posts. Also seen that Kawahi Leonard to be named MVP for the season is available at 16s with Vic's, most have him between 6 and 8/1. Worth a small tenball in my opinion.

[bergeroo]

Apologies for the multiple posts. Also seen that Kawahi Leonard to be named MVP for the season is available at 16s with Vic's, most have him between 6 and 8/1. Worth a small tenball in my opinion.

I can't find that market on Vics, it seems like an old price on oddschecker. Can you find it on their site?

[baldock92]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/regular-season-mvp

Apologies, forgot to paste into my previous post. Yep I think you're right, can't seem to get it anymore.

[the sicilian]

San Antonio are my NBA team.. have the best coach in Popovich... the team has a great mix of vets and young blood.. Leonard is almost inhuman in ability and he added scoring last year to his awesome defensive skills.
Have added Gasol at Centre to replace the aged hall of fame lock Duncan... Parker is my fave player ( even have his shirt ) and although his getting on may just have enough in the tank for one more championship ring.
The NBA is all about the depth of your bench, and SanAntonio have that.

Couuldnt bet against them .. always going to be top 4 every year.. warriors have added Durant.. could go either way as he has to take shots away from curry.. but curry was lacklustre in the finals last year and looked like he needed someone to take some of the load.. Durant may be that missing piece.. whatever its going to be close who goes up against Cleveland in the finals who are still head and shoulders over anyone in the East

[bergeroo]

Personally I can't see past Warriors and the Cavs in the finals. Early days of course and it is a long season.

 But if you like the Spurs then the questions are: They were 6 wins behind the Warriors last year for best record and lost the Head to Head 3-1. They've won one already, so if they can turn it around to say 3-1, then they need to find three extra wins, or three additional losses for the Warriors or two to tie. Do we think this is realistic?

Or do you think they can win a best of 7 vs GSW in the playoffs? They lost 4-2 to OKC (who won't be a factor this season) last year including a couple of narrow ones at home. You'd think they will face each other in the conference finals. So what price would you make them vs GSW in a best of 7 series? And then could they turn it on again and defeat the Cavs in the finals?

Finally I'd like to recommend Kawaii Leonard for Defensive Player of the Year 4/1 with Lads £20.

4/1 seems to high for someone who has won it two years in a row and if anything should improve this year with more responsibility now Duncan has retired. Howard won it three seasons in a row and I see no reason why Kawaii can't do so.

[baldock92]

I don't think the Spurs will beat GSW's regular season record, it will be fairly close again though, somewhere around 68 wins for GSW and 65 for SAS. I do, however, believe that this seasons Spurs can beat the Warriors head to head. They might be dogs but I don't think the difference between the two is as large as most people believe it to be, even with the addition of Durant to Golden State's roster. Remember when Lebron first joined the Heat with D Wade and Chris Bosh? Their first season together was far from easy as they struggled to work as a unit. Getting KD, Curry, Klay and Draymond Green to flow together may take time.

It's hard to price up a 7 game series between the two teams as they've only played one game this season. A best of 7 series between the cavs and SA would be close to a flip.

9/1 for the Spurs is very much value IMO.

[TightEnd]

Personally I can't see past Warriors and the Cavs in the finals. Early days of course and it is a long season.

 But if you like the Spurs then the questions are: They were 6 wins behind the Warriors last year for best record and lost the Head to Head 3-1. They've won one already, so if they can turn it around to say 3-1, then they need to find three extra wins, or three additional losses for the Warriors or two to tie. Do we think this is realistic?

Or do you think they can win a best of 7 vs GSW in the playoffs? They lost 4-2 to OKC (who won't be a factor this season) last year including a couple of narrow ones at home. You'd think they will face each other in the conference finals. So what price would you make them vs GSW in a best of 7 series? And then could they turn it on again and defeat the Cavs in the finals?

Finally I'd like to recommend Kawaii Leonard for Defensive Player of the Year 4/1 with Lads £20.

4/1 seems to high for someone who has won it two years in a row and if anything should improve this year with more responsibility now Duncan has retired. Howard won it three seasons in a row and I see no reason why Kawaii can't do so.

closed at ladbrokes. if it is only Ladbrokes for this, i would need help to get this on