Tips for Tikay

[bergeroo]

Nice article on the Spurs/Warriors match last night
https://theringer.com/spurs-warriors-kawhi-leonard-lamarcus-aldridge-5639e743c32a#.qhcmaodhk

San Antonio are my NBA team.. have the best coach in Popovich... the team has a great mix of vets and young blood.. Leonard is almost inhuman in ability and he added scoring last year to his awesome defensive skills.
Have added Gasol at Centre to replace the aged hall of fame lock Duncan... Parker is my fave player ( even have his shirt ) and although his getting on may just have enough in the tank for one more championship ring.
The NBA is all about the depth of your bench, and SanAntonio have that.

Couuldnt bet against them .. always going to be top 4 every year.. warriors have added Durant.. could go either way as he has to take shots away from curry.. but curry was lacklustre in the finals last year and looked like he needed someone to take some of the load.. Durant may be that missing piece.. whatever its going to be close who goes up against Cleveland in the finals who are still head and shoulders over anyone in the East

20 year Spurs fan as well.  Last night was a master class by the Spurs and their system.  Greatest ever power forward retires.  First game after no problem just drill last season's 73 win team by 30 on their court.  Incredible effort.  Pleasure to watch that game.  Warriors look massively undersized at every position.  They are going to really struggle on the glass.  To balance it they won't play the Spurs every night and shoot 21% from downtown either.  They have lost some key big men though from last season in Bogut and Mo Speigths and replaced them with massively inferior players in the paint in order to get KD on board salary cap wise who they didn't really need.   Gaining KD's strengths is great but when you weaken a weak area of the quality team anyway even further it might actually be a negative overall.

Couldn't put you off any of the bets placed on them but i am a Spurs fan.  The 4/1 DPOY is a cracking bet for an award that has previous of several players winning it multiple times in a row.  The only challenger for me is if Whiteside goes nuts in Miami without Bosh there after his max contract and has bundles of triple doubles with blocks this season.

[Weetabix]

Bergeroo, out of the three Muller is the only one likely to beat delpo or nishikori and that is only if he has one of them really ridiculous serving spells, and even then it's not very likely, no guarantee he will even make it that far. Raonic wasn't much of a two seed this week on the back of his injury.   I won't be placing my hard earned on del bonis or Mayer to upset the big two in this half. Fwiw I think delpotro wins again this week.  Run well if you take a punt on one of the 66/1 shots.

Do you not think the Warriors showed a lot of frailty defensively in last years playoffs, physically I mean, mainly versus thunder?  As you mention even weaker this time around.

[arbboy]

One for the nfl boys and arbers.  Tonight's game winning margin.  Tenn 1-6 winning margin.  Just laid someone on bf a carpet at 11/4 on this when 7/2 is freely available and 10/3 and 3/1 is also freely available.  Any reason why someone seems so keen to get on this bet at such a short price so early in the day.  Seems very unlikely to be a wagon at 11am in the morning putting up this bet.  The game total isn't that low at 43.5.  Anyone got any thoughts?  Punters still looking for 3/1 on the machine for any arbers out there who want to nick a few quid and can get the 7/2.

Either way it is probably a bet at 7/2 for those that can get on.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/jacksonville-jaguars-at-tennessee-titans/winning-margin

[Lonohray2]

A couple of good each way races today.

2.15 Clonmel has 19 runners but shape of the book with Ruby Walsh on a very short priced Theatre Wine makes it 3 1/5.

3.15 Clonmel has 18 runners and goes 4 1/4. Gary O'Brien has picked Solar Heat each way and is still available at 10-1. Anything else to see here? Possibly Omega Springs although short at 8-1 he is coming off of a place (4/18 at Puncheston in the same race on good ground) and a win (1/20 Gowran Park the same conditions) in the last month.

5.25 at Clonmel is favourable with 17 runners 4 1/4 but some short priced favourites in the race.

Chelmsford 7.10 has 16 runners 4 1/4, if it holds out at 16 runners could be some value there. Am on Bazzatt at 3.5 and some extra at ~4.0 on matchbook but no second pick.


Going into town soon was going to see how much I could get on in the shops if something reasonable was still available.

[Doobs]

A couple of good each way races today.

2.15 Clonmel has 19 runners but shape of the book with Ruby Walsh on a very short priced Theatre Wine makes it 3 1/5.

3.15 Clonmel has 18 runners and goes 4 1/4. Gary O'Brien has picked Solar Heat each way and is still available at 10-1. Anything else to see here? Possibly Omega Springs although short at 8-1 he is coming off of a place (4/18 at Puncheston in the same race on good ground) and a win (1/20 Gowran Park the same conditions) in the last month.

5.25 at Clonmel is favourable with 17 runners 4 1/4 but some short priced favourites in the race.

Chelmsford 7.10 has 16 runners 4 1/4, if it holds out at 16 runners could be some value there. Am on Bazzatt at 3.5 and some extra at ~4.0 on matchbook but no second pick.


Going into town soon was going to see how much I could get on in the shops if something reasonable was still available.

The 2.15 is a maiden, so 1/5 3 places is standard.  It may well be too generous, though I haven't checked.

Haven't got a lot of fime to look at the rest

[Tonibell]

14:40 at Lingfield definitely one for the shops, too. A 9-runner to allow for one misbehaving at the stalls and the rag's 85-1.
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/lingfield/14:40/winner

[Horneris]

14:40 at Lingfield definitely one for the shops, too. A 9-runner to allow for one misbehaving at the stalls and the rag's 85-1.
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/lingfield/14:40/winner

Agree its clearly a bad EW race but I do think the fav is ridic strong, should be 1/4. I've lumped on @ 8/15.

So I prefer to look at bad ew races where the fav has a bad draw or has never run over fences before or doesn't like winning or any other factor which I think could make it vunerable. I'm involved bad EW in the 2.10 Lingfield and the 2.15, 2.45 & 4.25 Clonmel

[arbboy]

Another Melzer masterclass of throwing matches in Austria!  Set and a break up no problem getting beat from there when the money is down Jurgen!   Guy been doing it for the best part of 15 years and never once got caught or even spoke about throwing games.  Incredible.  If i ever write a book on my time in the betting game one of my fav ever stories involves this guy.  6-0 final set.  VWP Jurgen. 49 unforced errors!!!! lolzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.  Make it less obvious son. Gamble landed wherever you got the money on.

[hector62]

Joao Sousa to beat David Ferrer @ 21/10 with Hills at the ATP Vienna tonight.

[arbboy]

Looks mid/wide at crayola this afternoon.

[Weetabix]

I was surprised he went off as fav, Ramos is probably having his best ever season.

[Horneris]

Anyone looked at the European Championship finals darts which starts tomorrow at 12.45pm (live on ITV4)?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_European_Championship_(darts)

Gary Anderson v Wade is a pretty comical first round draw.

Closed I came to an outright bet was Peter Wright @ 16s EW (2 1/2) but decided there wasn't enough value and was worried about his recent performance in the last players championship in Barnsley where he struggled past a load of nobodies 6-5 and lost to Josh Payne and also Justin Pipe whom he actually plays in the first round tomorrow.

The bottom half of the draw looks the weakest.

Potential Opponents:

Pipe
Reyes/Thornton
Chisnall/Caven/K.Anderson
Taylor/Suljovic/White

Worst case I reckon the match prices would be 1/3 vs Pipe, 2/5 vs Thornton, EVS Chisnall and 21/10 vs Taylor, which equals 10.5/1. Obv you have to take into account the chances of any of those players falling and the reflective prices of the new potential opposition which brings it much closer to the 8/1 mark but still not really enough to justify a wager.

[arbboy]

Anyone looked at the European Championship finals darts which starts tomorrow at 12.45pm (live on ITV4)?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_European_Championship_(darts)

Gary Anderson v Wade is a pretty comical first round draw.

Closed I came to an outright bet was Peter Wright @ 16s EW (2 1/2) but decided there wasn't enough value and was worried about his recent performance in the last players championship in Barnsley where he struggled past a load of nobodies 6-5 and lost to Josh Payne and also Justin Pipe whom he actually plays in the first round tomorrow.

The bottom half of the draw looks the weakest.

Potential Opponents:

Pipe
Reyes/Thornton
Chisnall/Caven/K.Anderson
Taylor/Suljovic/White

Worst case I reckon the match prices would be 1/3 vs Pipe, 2/5 vs Thornton, EVS Chisnall and 21/10 vs Taylor, which equals 10.5/1. Obv you have to take into account the chances of any of those players falling and the reflective prices of the new potential opposition which brings it much closer to the 8/1 mark but still not really enough to justify a wager.

What a draw Taylor has got given he is unseeded and could have landed anywhere!  Thanks for posting.  Taylor must be an ew bet at 4/1 1/2 1,2 surely?  He can't be a 2/1 poke to get to the final surely with that draw?  No idea on the match format so it might be super short and crap shooty etc.

Edit - it is match play best of 11 first round then best of 19/21 legs there on in.  The best matchplay format to suit the superior players.

[HutchGF]

Fully agree with Arb above. Taylor has got the nut best draw and is worth an ew bet at 4/1.

[TightEnd]

we have christened Black Type on this one

Winner - Outright
Winner

£25.00 EW on Taylor, Phil @ 5.00 e/w 1/2 1,2