Dion Lewis is a Patriots Running back
The Patriots, as we know, are -15 at home to the Texans this weekend
Lewis is an all purpose shifty back, runs it, catches it out of the backfield, quick and a match up nightmare
He was injured for the first half of the season having had knee surgery in August. Indeed with a small frame he tends to be injury prone full stop. He returned to the line up in week 11 and was eased in. He has been scoreless since but has 9 Red zone touches (from the 20 yard line to the end zone) in the last 2 games, including 4 touches inside the opposing 10 yard line.
He has really been back to full go for three weeks. His 50 touches over the final three weeks of the regular season ranked second among Patriots skill players behind fellow running back LeGarrette Blount, who had 51. Yet in the betting markets he is ranked SEVENTH most likely Patriot to score a touchdown, and is even a longer rpice than a defensive Patriots touchdown
http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/houston-texans-at-new-england-patriots/first-touchdown-scorerlook at the game logs
http://www.nfl.com/player/dionlewis/2495469/gamelogs18,16,11 carries weeks 15-17 but the Pats did nothing with his major strength, receiving. 2,1,2 receptions across the three games
There is a theory that the Pats have been playing "rope-a-dope" with his receiving, about to cut him loose in the play offs now he's fit
why might this be?
a) the Texans number 1 ranked defense is tough get through in the middle and the game sets up for screens, short passes etc which is where Lewis comes in
b) LeGarrette Blount (who has scored 9 TDs in the 7 games that the Patriots have been -14 or larger this year) has missed practice on wednesday and thursday and might not get a full shift this weekend
This is really a value hunch. Blount is the obvious First TD candidate* but at 7/2 first and 8/13 anytime everyone knows this
Lewis' potential here has been ignored. you can get 22/1 First TD and 17/4 Bet365 only anytime TD
* Patriots at home. The argument that away sides will defer and give the other aside the ball first is long established. the away side then gets the ball start of second half when they can put in place half time adjustments and a proportion of the crowd aren't back in their seats yet, so the noise is lower and an offense easier to run.
However the Patriots/Belicheck are one of the pioneers of deferring, even at home, so it may offset. Whereas normally a home team can be expected to get the ball first its a genuine coin flip here
In our favour, if the disappointing Osweiler and the anaemic Texans offense get the ball first and march down the field and score an offensive TD, then its a very diffierent type of game than the betting markets currently expect
Recommendation
Bet365 only (so we would need help to get on)
Dion Lewis, Texans at Patriots
£10 FTS 22/1
£20 Anytime 17/4
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