Australian Open Draw just came out. I was not interested in the men's draw so much with the two top seeds looking so solid. But the two top seeds in the ladies draw are looking very shaky. Serena lost her only match this season vs a low ranked player and didn't look too interested. Kerber has had two defeats against two players outside of the top ten where she didn't look too great either.
Let's take a look at the draw.
First thing to note is that Serena has drawn possibly the most dangerous unseeded player in the first round in Bencic. It won't get any easier as she is likely to face another dangerous unseeded player, Safarova in the next round. Also in this quarter are Konta and Wozniacki, two players whom I hoped for a favourable draw for. The other big seed is Cibulkova, but I won't be touching any of those three all in the same 8th of the draw and besides Konta's price has come in over the past few days as she has been tipped up.
Unfortunately for Kerber over in the top section she has drawn the talented Muguruza in her quarter, one of the toughest players from the 5-8 seeds. She also faces the dangerous Tsurenko in the first round and has Bouchard and Kasatkina in her section of the draw who on their day can be a problem. Murguruza herself seems to have a decent draw until the quarter finals but I can't bet her at such a short price as 10/1, particularly as she pulled out of her last match with a thigh injury. As for Kerber herself, obviously she did fantastically well last season but I don't think she is that much or indeed any better than some of the other players who are longer odds just below. She hit great form and ran well but I see a reversion to mean a possibility this season and those big titles last year make her too short here.
Another player I had my eye on was
Aginieszka Radwanska. She is playing in the final in Sydney today vs Konta but hopefully won't be too tired from this week as she's won pretty straightforwardly in each match so far. Radwanska is a talented player, good on hard courts, third in the world, but has a reputation as a player who can't get it done in big matches. She hasn't won a grand slam and has an overall poor record in deciding sets. Her 0-10 record against Serena is also a factor in this. Tennis writer who I respect Dan Weston says she has superb hold/break data - she has held serve 72.6% and broken opponents 50.6% on hard court in the last 12 months"
Her section is very managable with a fading Sam Stosur, a weak 15th seed in Vesnina and Cornet who had a great run in Brisbane but is not in the same class as Radwanska. In the quarter finals the problem would be Karolina Pliskova. The Czech looked excellent in sweeping to the title in Brisbane but the word is out and her overall odds tumbled for this tournament and she is now 8/1 third favourite.
Interestingly Radwanska has met Pliskova only twice, both last season (once on a hard court) winning in straight sets both times. Radwanska is currently widely available at 25/1 compared to the eights of Pliskova and I think I like that price for a player that has done well in Australia in the past (quarter final or better 5 out of the last 6 years)
The second quarter is by far the weakest. It has the highest priced of the top 4 seeds (Halep) and the highest priced of the 5-8 seeds (Kuznetsova), plus other seeds like Venus Williams (fading fast, in the twilight of her career), Kiki Bertens (terrible record on hard courts, bad loss this week with amazing draw).
Halep herself could be interesting at 12/1 but I'm not sure I can bring myself to trust her. Halep had a breakout year but has has done poorly in slams the past two years. Still this represents a great draw for her and an excellent chance of a run to the semi finals. But I'm happy to take her on a bit.
In the bottom half of this quarter is
Elina Svitolina. The 11th seed has a favourable draw for her first two matches and a decent third round draw vs Pavlyuchenkova whom she beat last autumn. She then could face eighth seed
Svetlana Kuznetsova (intriguing herself at 100/1) and then a meeting with Halep. It is an excellent draw for a player that put a good run of results together in the Asian hardcourt season last autumn. She beat number one ranked Kerber last week in Brisbane before losing to an inspired Pliskova. She needs to play her best but I think she is in a brilliant spot here and at 50/1 represents some each way value.
As for Kuznetsova. She is the eighth seed but is priced all the way at 100/1. The veteran player has two Grand Slam titles and returned to the top ten last season, even making it to the semi finals of the season finale in Singapore. Is she good enough to win another slam? Its possible if she plays her best and I think that price is just a bit too high in a very weak section. She has had a couple of disappointing results in warm up matches, but we can hope that leaves her a little more well rested. She is a gutsy player who thrives in tight matches
Kuznetsova could face Svitolina in the last 16 but getting a 50/1 plus player through to the last 8 would be a good sweat so I'm happy to take an interest in them both.
Recommended bets (these are the three ladies I bet myself)
Agnieszka Radwanska £15ew at 25/1
Elina Svitolina £10ew 50/1
Svetlana Kuznetsova £5ew at 100/1
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/australian-open/womens/winnerPrices could be gone in the morning as the draw filters though or if Radwanska wins tonight.
Would love to hear other opinions and of course I don't mind if Fred does or doesn't bet on this, but I had some time spare so fancied doing a write up.
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