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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16389153 times)
The Camel
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« Reply #124710 on: January 11, 2017, 11:09:11 PM »

I wouldn't normally share anything from The S*n.  And as much i wish the old boy luck it would cause too much of a hooha if the courts actually agree that Liquidation of the company meant liquidation of the club. 

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/420418/a-punter-is-suing-coral-bookies-for-refusing-a-250000-payout-on-his-wager-that-rangers-would-be-relegated/

Zero chance of getting paid.

Having said that, it would be a nice gesture of Coral to offer him 5 or 10k as a good will payment.
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« Reply #124711 on: January 12, 2017, 10:53:42 AM »

Patriots

Sports Insights have been publishing look ahead lines for SB51, and one such from Vegas quoted Patirots -7 v the Cowboys, if it were to come to that

The Cowboys are second favourites to win the SB, ahead of Atlanta and the Packers

The NFC Conference play offs are far tougher too

For the Cowboys to get there, which i doubt, a rookie has to beat Rodgers, then Ryan or Wilson, all with one of the least effective home advantages in the NFL. Set against that, all 63 players are fit (huge luck this deep in a season) and the running game is built for the play-offs

As commented the Pats get the Texans and home in January weather against two sides who most likely will beat each other up this weekend

anyway so we can look at 7/4 against a treble at 1/16*8/13(Pitt or KC)*8/13(probably shorter if they are slated to be 7 point favourites against the NFC favourites)

1/16 8/13 8/13 is, hey presto, 1.77 or 7/4 give or take

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« Reply #124712 on: January 12, 2017, 11:10:24 AM »

What price would a 7pt favourite be to win the game outright? 8-13 seems big (as mentioned). I'd have guessed somewhere around 1-3? Dallas are 4-9 to beat GB and the line is +4.5.

If they're 1-14 to beat Houston and 4-7 to win the conference, that means they'll be around 4-9 to beat KC or Pittsburgh.

Treble should be something like 1-14 x 4-9 x 1-3, which comes to a touch over evens. 7-4 seems big to me.
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The Camel
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« Reply #124713 on: January 12, 2017, 11:11:23 AM »

Patriots

Sports Insights have been publishing look ahead lines for SB51, and one such from Vegas quoted Patirots -7 v the Cowboys, if it were to come to that

The Cowboys are second favourites to win the SB, ahead of Atlanta and the Packers

The NFC Conference play offs are far tougher too

For the Cowboys to get there, which i doubt, a rookie has to beat Rodgers, then Ryan or Wilson, all with one of the least effective home advantages in the NFL. Set against that, all 63 players are fit (huge luck this deep in a season) and the running game is built for the play-offs

As commented the Pats get the Texans and home in January weather against two sides who most likely will beat each other up this weekend

anyway so we can look at 7/4 against a treble at 1/16*8/13(Pitt or KC)*8/13(probably shorter if they are slated to be 7 point favourites against the NFC favourites)

1/16 8/13 8/13 is, hey presto, 1.77 or 7/4 give or take



I think the Pats would be 7 point favs (or 6.5 at a push) v KC or Pitt.
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« Reply #124714 on: January 12, 2017, 11:19:18 AM »

in which case 7/4 is a bet then as said 8/13 twice is too pessimistic
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« Reply #124715 on: January 12, 2017, 11:21:08 AM »

I'm sure they'd be bigger favs at home to Kansas than they would Pittsburgh.

I'll say -5 pitts, -7 kansas

I could see Big Ben going in there and beating them. Alex Smith, no hope in hell.
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« Reply #124716 on: January 12, 2017, 12:18:11 PM »

What price would a 7pt favourite be to win the game outright? 8-13 seems big (as mentioned). I'd have guessed somewhere around 1-3? Dallas are 4-9 to beat GB and the line is +4.5.

If they're 1-14 to beat Houston and 4-7 to win the conference, that means they'll be around 4-9 to beat KC or Pittsburgh.

Treble should be something like 1-14 x 4-9 x 1-3, which comes to a touch over evens. 7-4 seems big to me.

Thats' my rough estimation before the nfl experts commented.  I made it around an even money 5/4 poke.  Let's have £400 at 7/4 then put it down to me or Tal i don't mind.  Tal suggested it first.    Let's see how much we can move this price! haha
« Last Edit: January 12, 2017, 12:22:44 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #124717 on: January 12, 2017, 12:29:29 PM »

Take the max at 7-4 imo. Price is tight on the machine and there's no way they lose this weekend.

The price will tumble relatively after Sunday night, given they only have to land a 1-14 shot. Easy trade.
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« Reply #124718 on: January 12, 2017, 12:48:55 PM »

Betfred is the last 7/4 i can see

on as follows (limited by account balance and restrictions)

Super Bowl LI
Super Bowl LI Outright
   New England Patriots   7/4   
Total stake   £ 207.75
Estimated return   £ 571.31
Full stake   £ 207.75
Full estimated return   £ 571.31
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« Reply #124719 on: January 12, 2017, 01:28:29 PM »

Cracking game in the big bash between the Melbourne Renegades and Hobart Hurricanes today, well worth watching the whole thing back if you've got a bit of spare time today.
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« Reply #124720 on: January 12, 2017, 01:54:47 PM »

west hams price to go down hasnt changed since http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/38595765
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Tonibell
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« Reply #124721 on: January 12, 2017, 02:07:21 PM »

Pinnacle are 2.56 New England. I have no idea why Fred's boys think they're smarter.
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« Reply #124722 on: January 12, 2017, 02:11:35 PM »

Pinnacle are 2.56 New England. I have no idea why Fred's boys think they're smarter.

fred has 5500 FOBT's to subsidize his donk offs on what should be his core business.  Pinnacle offering their usual two way price as well.  Happy to offer 4/7 the other side with margin.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2017, 02:15:35 PM by arbboy » Logged
doubleup
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« Reply #124723 on: January 12, 2017, 02:32:14 PM »


Not discounting idiocy, but it's also possible that they have an unbalanced book so want some money on New England.
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Tonibell
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« Reply #124724 on: January 12, 2017, 03:02:51 PM »

Then they've got it Cheesy 2.50 now.
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