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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13329632 times)
Bazzaboy
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« Reply #126570 on: March 19, 2017, 01:51:06 PM »

Isaac looked like he was warming in to it in the 4th do you not think bazza?. also wasn't much of a cut off the clash of heads thought he would have carried on. looked to me as if he thought, that ll do me I keep belt and title if  I stop now.


It was looking like being an interesting fight. Isaac was catching a few clean but his style was causing Ceylon some problems. Pity the cut happened when it did.
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Peter-27
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« Reply #126571 on: March 19, 2017, 02:01:10 PM »

ok this look ok for you?

Valtteri Bottas Formula One Drivers Championship
£100.00 @ 7.17
Total Stake: £100.00
Potential Returns: £716.86


not placing the previous Bottas bet was down to me. not deliberate but i missed a couple of days along the way when the prices were there pre his appointment

Yep, spot on.

No worries, it happens Smiley
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« Reply #126572 on: March 19, 2017, 07:43:35 PM »

hello

we are on Vettel at good prices and the suggestion is £100+ on Bottas

doing both would create a strong "anti Hamilton" position,by default

how do we rationalise that with two of your three "specials" bets featuring Hamilton to win it,and one for him to win 11+ races and the title by more than 80 points?

I don't think, or expect, Hamilton to win the title in 2017. However, for those two bets in particular, I felt that 4/1 & 5/1 represented a good price. As I mentioned, I'm aware those bets with multiple scenario's aren't really value - and they were not formal suggestions I suppose, just bets I have placed. I've put up multiple scenario bets in the past and been shouted down quite heavily so there is a reluctance there.

In addition, the Vettel bet was not my suggestion and I don't personally think that was a value spot which lessens the "anti Hamilton" position in my eyes.

I am sure people have explained this before, but here goes.

A multiple bet can be broken down into singles.  If you have an edge in the singles, doubling up increases your edge.  If you are doubling up without an edge, you are just giving a bigger margin to bookies.  This is where your term mug acca comes from.  Most accas at amy bookies are going to be mug accas and very few will have any edge.   There are exceptions, like if you know what you are doing on the horses, but it is going to be the case in most circumstances.  On top of this, Tighty and Tikay just aren't fans of accas, so that alone results in negative feedback.  FWIW my Boyles account lasted precisely 1 each way losing patent.   I could no longer get a single penny on (I tried).

In this case, you cam break one of these Shybet "specials" in to singles so we can see the "value".  Hamilton is 5/4 on betfair for the Championship.  Ferrari are 4/1 for the costructors and Red Bull are 6/1, so 6/4 Red Bull in a match is going to be close and if you offered 5/4 you'd be getting the right side.  McLaren and Renault are both priced about the same, but that is likely a result of fewer scenarios where McLaren do exceptionally well and more where Renault is a bit average, but still beats a struggling McLaren.  Either way I wouln't want to offer evens Renault, but suspect someone would be happy to give you 4/5 Renault.

Now you can put these together and get 2.25 x 2.25 x 1.8.  That comes out as 9 on my calculator.  That is 8/1 which is well ahead of the 5/1 you took and the 9/2 Shy are offering now.  It is just a bad acca and has no place here.  But guess there is a reason that when I request bets from Shy they effectively tell me to f off.

Similarly given you can get 2.25 Hamilton, the current 7/2 on him winning by 80+points and winning 11 races can be broken down too.  It is the equivalent of saying that if Hamilton wins the World Championship, half the time he does so he does if by 80+ points and wins 11+ races.  I am a big fan of Hamilton's ability, but it is pretty clear which side of that even bet you'd want (assuming Hamilton doesn't win is a push).

Finally we must be up to a handful of posts now where you have suggested that our Vettel bet isn't value.  We have 14/1.  The price is now 4/1.  There is a time when you stop digging that big hole and that was probably day 3 or 4 of testing.  Any bet that you take at 14/1 and can lay off at 9/2 is clearly value.  Period.  If anybody wants to lay me any 14/1 Vettel I will snap their hands off for as much as they will lay. 

You can also take it as read that I'd happily lay those Shy prices too.

Cheers.

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« Reply #126573 on: March 19, 2017, 08:27:32 PM »

Good post Doobs. A clear explanation to new punters of why bookies love acccas lucky 15s Yankees etc .
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« Reply #126574 on: March 19, 2017, 08:56:58 PM »

Anyone watching the US golf this evening see the drop that Charley Hoffman awarded himself on the 8th hole?

I thought it was questionable at best.
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« Reply #126575 on: March 19, 2017, 09:45:40 PM »

Anyone watching the US golf this evening see the drop that Charley Hoffman awarded himself on the 8th hole?

I thought it was questionable at best.

Wasn't paying enough attention, but thought the red line was quite high up the bank, so there wasn't much area for it to pitch and not be in the hazard.  It was only a short iron anyway, so would have thought he could see exactly where it landed.
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Peter-27
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« Reply #126576 on: March 19, 2017, 10:53:51 PM »

hello

we are on Vettel at good prices and the suggestion is £100+ on Bottas

doing both would create a strong "anti Hamilton" position,by default

how do we rationalise that with two of your three "specials" bets featuring Hamilton to win it,and one for him to win 11+ races and the title by more than 80 points?

I don't think, or expect, Hamilton to win the title in 2017. However, for those two bets in particular, I felt that 4/1 & 5/1 represented a good price. As I mentioned, I'm aware those bets with multiple scenario's aren't really value - and they were not formal suggestions I suppose, just bets I have placed. I've put up multiple scenario bets in the past and been shouted down quite heavily so there is a reluctance there.

In addition, the Vettel bet was not my suggestion and I don't personally think that was a value spot which lessens the "anti Hamilton" position in my eyes.

I am sure people have explained this before, but here goes.

A multiple bet can be broken down into singles.  If you have an edge in the singles, doubling up increases your edge.  If you are doubling up without an edge, you are just giving a bigger margin to bookies.  This is where your term mug acca comes from.  Most accas at amy bookies are going to be mug accas and very few will have any edge.   There are exceptions, like if you know what you are doing on the horses, but it is going to be the case in most circumstances.  On top of this, Tighty and Tikay just aren't fans of accas, so that alone results in negative feedback.  FWIW my Boyles account lasted precisely 1 each way losing patent.   I could no longer get a single penny on (I tried).

In this case, you cam break one of these Shybet "specials" in to singles so we can see the "value".  Hamilton is 5/4 on betfair for the Championship.  Ferrari are 4/1 for the costructors and Red Bull are 6/1, so 6/4 Red Bull in a match is going to be close and if you offered 5/4 you'd be getting the right side.  McLaren and Renault are both priced about the same, but that is likely a result of fewer scenarios where McLaren do exceptionally well and more where Renault is a bit average, but still beats a struggling McLaren.  Either way I wouln't want to offer evens Renault, but suspect someone would be happy to give you 4/5 Renault.

Now you can put these together and get 2.25 x 2.25 x 1.8.  That comes out as 9 on my calculator.  That is 8/1 which is well ahead of the 5/1 you took and the 9/2 Shy are offering now.  It is just a bad acca and has no place here.  But guess there is a reason that when I request bets from Shy they effectively tell me to f off.

Similarly given you can get 2.25 Hamilton, the current 7/2 on him winning by 80+points and winning 11 races can be broken down too.  It is the equivalent of saying that if Hamilton wins the World Championship, half the time he does so he does if by 80+ points and wins 11+ races.  I am a big fan of Hamilton's ability, but it is pretty clear which side of that even bet you'd want (assuming Hamilton doesn't win is a push).

Finally we must be up to a handful of posts now where you have suggested that our Vettel bet isn't value.  We have 14/1.  The price is now 4/1.  There is a time when you stop digging that big hole and that was probably day 3 or 4 of testing.  Any bet that you take at 14/1 and can lay off at 9/2 is clearly value.  Period.  If anybody wants to lay me any 14/1 Vettel I will snap their hands off for as much as they will lay. 

You can also take it as read that I'd happily lay those Shy prices too.

Cheers.



Completely agree with the first part which is why I pointed out that they're not formal recommendations. The only reason I'm posting them here is in response to the PM's I've had from people asking me to post all my pre-season bets, and for full transparency so people know I'm not fiddling any figures when the season ends Smiley

As for the Vettel bet, I may have mis-understood. If it's 14/1 to win the title, then fair enough, that is indeed value. If it's 14/1 EW (1/4) to win the title - which I thought it was (apologies if I'm wrong ..), then I stand by what I said, I don't think that's value at all.
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rinswun
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« Reply #126577 on: March 19, 2017, 11:38:48 PM »

This isn't an attack Peter, you are clearly a F1 expert and know the sport inside out whilst I have no idea about the strengths and merits of a formula 1 car but if you've got a ticket at 14/1 ew (presume the terms are 1/3, first three?) and the price is now 9/2 to win it all, how can the e/w part be bad value? You're getting the same place price as the current win odds? In a betting w/o the two Mercedes market, where you were betting to a 100% book, what percentage chance would you make Vettel to win?
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« Reply #126578 on: March 20, 2017, 12:21:43 AM »

This isn't an attack Peter, you are clearly a F1 expert and know the sport inside out whilst I have no idea about the strengths and merits of a formula 1 car but if you've got a ticket at 14/1 ew (presume the terms are 1/3, first three?) and the price is now 9/2 to win it all, how can the e/w part be bad value? You're getting the same place price as the current win odds? In a betting w/o the two Mercedes market, where you were betting to a 100% book, what percentage chance would you make Vettel to win?

It is a fifth first 3.  Somebody on betfair is currently offering to take 1.9 vettel top 3 right now and has been all night.  I wouldn't rush to take him up.  It is effectively 6 people battling for 3 places and vettel is 2nd favourite of the 6.  We have near 3/1 top 3.  Of course, flukes happen, but 7th in line is Bottas who doesn't represent value at 50/1 top 3 (or so we are told). 

And ofc Peter said "there are some things I recommend", before putting up the multiples. 

I don't normally bother but every f1 bet I put up, Peter says it isn't value.  This one, we must have heard it half a dozen times.  Just glad the damn thing didn't drift.  The damn season hasn't even started yet.

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« Reply #126579 on: March 20, 2017, 07:26:21 AM »

Stacy Lewis couldn't make up the two shots on Nordqvist and finished T2. Haven't been able to watch any of the last round yet but will do later today.
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« Reply #126580 on: March 20, 2017, 08:34:44 AM »

hello

we are on Vettel at good prices and the suggestion is £100+ on Bottas

doing both would create a strong "anti Hamilton" position,by default

how do we rationalise that with two of your three "specials" bets featuring Hamilton to win it,and one for him to win 11+ races and the title by more than 80 points?

I don't think, or expect, Hamilton to win the title in 2017. However, for those two bets in particular, I felt that 4/1 & 5/1 represented a good price. As I mentioned, I'm aware those bets with multiple scenario's aren't really value - and they were not formal suggestions I suppose, just bets I have placed. I've put up multiple scenario bets in the past and been shouted down quite heavily so there is a reluctance there.

In addition, the Vettel bet was not my suggestion and I don't personally think that was a value spot which lessens the "anti Hamilton" position in my eyes.

I am sure people have explained this before, but here goes.

A multiple bet can be broken down into singles.  If you have an edge in the singles, doubling up increases your edge.  If you are doubling up without an edge, you are just giving a bigger margin to bookies.  This is where your term mug acca comes from.  Most accas at amy bookies are going to be mug accas and very few will have any edge.   There are exceptions, like if you know what you are doing on the horses, but it is going to be the case in most circumstances.  On top of this, Tighty and Tikay just aren't fans of accas, so that alone results in negative feedback.  FWIW my Boyles account lasted precisely 1 each way losing patent.   I could no longer get a single penny on (I tried).

In this case, you cam break one of these Shybet "specials" in to singles so we can see the "value".  Hamilton is 5/4 on betfair for the Championship.  Ferrari are 4/1 for the costructors and Red Bull are 6/1, so 6/4 Red Bull in a match is going to be close and if you offered 5/4 you'd be getting the right side.  McLaren and Renault are both priced about the same, but that is likely a result of fewer scenarios where McLaren do exceptionally well and more where Renault is a bit average, but still beats a struggling McLaren.  Either way I wouln't want to offer evens Renault, but suspect someone would be happy to give you 4/5 Renault.

Now you can put these together and get 2.25 x 2.25 x 1.8.  That comes out as 9 on my calculator.  That is 8/1 which is well ahead of the 5/1 you took and the 9/2 Shy are offering now.  It is just a bad acca and has no place here.  But guess there is a reason that when I request bets from Shy they effectively tell me to f off.

Similarly given you can get 2.25 Hamilton, the current 7/2 on him winning by 80+points and winning 11 races can be broken down too.  It is the equivalent of saying that if Hamilton wins the World Championship, half the time he does so he does if by 80+ points and wins 11+ races.  I am a big fan of Hamilton's ability, but it is pretty clear which side of that even bet you'd want (assuming Hamilton doesn't win is a push).

Finally we must be up to a handful of posts now where you have suggested that our Vettel bet isn't value.  We have 14/1.  The price is now 4/1.  There is a time when you stop digging that big hole and that was probably day 3 or 4 of testing.  Any bet that you take at 14/1 and can lay off at 9/2 is clearly value.  Period.  If anybody wants to lay me any 14/1 Vettel I will snap their hands off for as much as they will lay. 

You can also take it as read that I'd happily lay those Shy prices too.

Cheers.



Completely agree with the first part which is why I pointed out that they're not formal recommendations. The only reason I'm posting them here is in response to the PM's I've had from people asking me to post all my pre-season bets, and for full transparency so people know I'm not fiddling any figures when the season ends Smiley

As for the Vettel bet, I may have mis-understood. If it's 14/1 to win the title, then fair enough, that is indeed value. If it's 14/1 EW (1/4) to win the title - which I thought it was (apologies if I'm wrong ..), then I stand by what I said, I don't think that's value at all.

I dont understand the Vettell part of this post?
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« Reply #126581 on: March 20, 2017, 09:18:21 AM »

It doesn't make any sense

the each way part of this looks sensational

Vettel   14/1   50   £25 e/w 1/5 1,2,3
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« Reply #126582 on: March 20, 2017, 10:23:00 AM »

Roger Federer is 20/1 for the French Open.

Thoughts?

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/mens/winner

Murray and Djok both currently injured and out of form. Question marks over Nadal. Wawrinka blows hot and cold but can be an excellent player on clay. What about Thiem?
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« Reply #126583 on: March 20, 2017, 12:01:26 PM »

Stacy Lewis couldn't make up the two shots on Nordqvist and finished T2. Haven't been able to watch any of the last round yet but will do later today.

I watched it last night for the last couple of hours.

Stacy had a couple of chances but in all honesty nobody could get close to Nordqvist who's bogey at the last made the result look closer than it actually was.
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« Reply #126584 on: March 20, 2017, 12:10:04 PM »

Burton's next two games are away at Huddersfield and Newcastle.

Then they have Villa (H), Ipswich (H), Brum (A), Leeds (H), Barnsley (A), Reading (H).

Not the easiest run-in you'll ever see.

Posh got relegated with 54pts a few seasons ago and it could need a similar number to stay up this time.

It's a shame Wigan are become detached, as it means we're maybe playing for one spot, but I still think they'll do well to stay up and would suggest going again at 9-4 if we weren't already in so deep. If they do go down they could well do a Yeovil.

Wtf has happened to the sportinglife site by the way? Gone from being the nuts to the nut worst.
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