Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I'm biased 'cos I knew him as a kid but I think Jolyon Palmer could surprise a few people and outperform his more experienced team mate Hulkenberg so I'll no doubt do my conkers this year backing JP in match bets v The Hulk race after race.  

I felt a bit of a cheat after posting that long & waffly F1 post because I didn't put a solid recommendation up but I think I've found a value spot that eliminates any risk of whether the new Renault chassis and engine combo is actually competitive with the rest of the grid.  Here's the reasoning behind my recommendation:

I mentioned that I thought Jolyon Palmer might give his new team mate Nico Hulkenberg a run for his money so I've been taking a look at the 2017 season driver match markets.

General opinion is that Hulk is the better driver, he may well be and the bookies make him a big favourite.  Hulkenbergs's certainly got bags more experience in F1 than Palmer but as I said in the other post Palmer has a history of improving with each season in every category he's raced in.

2009 was Palmer's debut season at what I would consider to be the elite level of motorsport where he raced in the the FIA Formula 2 series and he came 22nd, he was a revelation in 2010 and he ended up finishing 2nd in the championship, winning 5 of the 18 races.

After Formula 2 Palmer moved to GP2 (one rung below F1) and his championship finishing positions during his four year GP2 career were as follows:

2011 - 28th
2012 - 11th
2013 - 7th
2014 - 1st

As I said in the original post Palmer dominated the championship in 2014 and won the title with three races to spare achieving an all-time points record in the series.  That's no mean feat when you consider some of the drivers that have been in GP2 over the years.  Other former GP2 champions include Rosberg, Hamilton. Hulkenberg and Grosjean.  

2017 is Palmer's 2nd full season in F1 so we should expect him to improve from last year and he'll need to if he's to score more points than Hulkenberg.  It's worth remembering that he spent 2015 as the reserve driver with Lotus (who evolved into the current Renault team) and gained a lot of F1 experience driving the Lotus at tests and in practice sessions at various race weekends. In short he's had quite a bit more than one full year in the sport.

Last year in Palmer's debut F1 season he was up against a tough team mate in Kevin Magnussen widely regarded as one of the top young drivers around who'd previously had two years experience at McLaren where he performed well alongside Jenson Button.  In 2016 Magnussen definitely had a big edge over Palmer in the early races but instead of crumbling under the immense pressure he was under from pundits and public opinion Palmer found his feet in F1 and things were much closer between the two in mid-season.  

Towards the end of the 2016 season it was widely acknowledged that the pair were competing for one available seat in the car for this year and Palmer surprised & impressed plenty of people by finishing the season stronger than Magnussen and winning the battle.  It was clear that Palmer had proved a few doubters wrong and was a solid, quick racer who fully deserved his place in F1 for this season.  I've no doubt he'll continue improving throughout 2017 and he won't be rattled by having Hulkenberg as a team mate at all even if Hulkenberg starts the season stronger.

Meanwhile Hulkenberg's joined Renault from Force India where he's spent the last three seasons alongside Sergio Perez.  In all three years Hulkenberg's managed to outqualify Perez but for the last two seasons Perez has had a better record in the races, notably scoring more points and having better overall finishing positions than Hulkenberg.  Presumably this is why Force India have kept Perez and replaced Hulkenberg with Esteban Ocon for the 2017 season.  The good news for Hulk is that he won't have to drive a pink Force India this year.

Before joining Force India Hulkenberg's career in F1 was as follows:

2010 was Hulkenberg's debut season in F1 and he raced at Williams alongside the experienced Rubens Barichello. He surprised everyone in motorsport when he secured Williams first pole position for 5 years in Brazil but Barrichello had the edge over him in points scored, race finishing positions and qualifying.  Despite a relatively promising start to Hulk's F1 career Williams decided to keep Barrichello on for 2011 and Hulkenberg was replaced by Pastor Maldonado which is something no F1 driver wants on their cv!  Hulkenberg spent 2011 as Force India's test driver.

Hulkenberg returned to the grid in 2012 alongside Paul Di Resta at Force India.  The pair were very evenly matched throughout the season with and dead-heated in qualifying by both coming out on top in 10 races.  Hulkenberg narrowly outscored Di Resta in the points battle and he finished ahead of Di Resta in 12 races but behind him in 9.  Clearly there wasn't much between the two of them.  At this stage of his career I'd rate Palmer as a better all round driver than Di Resta and certainly not considerably worse.

In 2013 Hulkenberg joined Sauber and he blew away his rookie team mate Esteban Guitierrez who spent last season being convincingly outperformed by Grosjean in the Haas team and he's now off to try his luck in Formula E.

In short, other that when alongside Guiterrez who was a rookie at the time Hulkenberg's record against his various "middle of the grid" team mates isn't particularly remarkable and certainly not good enough in my opinion to make him a 1/8 favourite to outperform Palmer this year which is where PP have him before the season starts!

One problem with a match bet between the two Renault drivers is that points for all teams other than the big four of Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull and Williams will be really hard to come by.  Renault, Force India, Haas, Toro Rosso and maybe even McLaren will be spending most weekends battling to finish 9th and 10th securing 2pts or 1pt in the process.  It's unrealistic to think either of the Renault drivers will score points on a regular basis so this is likely to be a low scoring heat.  One freak result for either driver such as 10pts for a 5th place in a crash riddled Monaco or a rain affected race at any circuit would make it hard for the other driver to make up the difference.

Having said all of the above I do make Hulkenberg the favourite to beat Palmer over the season but I think it's closer than most people and the bookies seem to think. I'd be happy to be on Palmer to win this match bet at 2/1 which is where he's generally priced.  I'd have recommended the bet for the thread with Shy who have Palmer at 5/2 which I think's a bit of value but PP are well out of line at 7/2!  I can't get on with PP but my kids can so they've both invested on my behalf this afternoon.  I know the thread can't get on with PP either but if someone can help out I think this is a good spot which also gives a nice season long sweat.

Recommended Bet: 2017 Formula 1 season matched bet.  Jolyon Palmer to beat Nico Hulkenberg (stake should probably be up to you guys - £20?) @ 7/2 with PP

Here's the link to the PP matched bet page, couldn't see them on Oddschecker:

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/motor-racing/formula-1?ev_oc_grp_ids=1183321

Fascinating, thanks Dekka.

[tikay]

I got him £19.50 on, so will give Fred a 50pence freeroll for simplicity.

£20 @ 7/2

Top work Marky, thank you.

[Marky147]

I got him £19.50 on, so will give Fred a 50pence freeroll for simplicity.

£20 @ 7/2

Top work Marky, thank you.

NPs. It's my thrift club... Running up the slate for my GN main event buyin

[Lonohray2]

Posted pre season about betting shields for the cup + league, they just made the fa vase final 6-1 on aggregate. They really are an amazing team.

No prices available?

There will be soon I guess. Would bet shields at 1/3.

Good luck with that Pads!  They're currently best priced @ 1/5 with Skye, 2/11 Betweigh and 1/6 with PP ...

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/fa-vase/winner

They should be nowhere near the final

They were losing 4-2 80 something minutes into the game when they pulled their floodlights to have the game rescheduled. This was the round of 16, my home town played them away in the quarters and we got smashed 6-1. They were very good then too

But you're a million to get anything on like this, BV had a market from the round of 32 but clean accounts couldn't get more than a £50 on win, I doubt it's much better even being in the final.



I still have £25 of Fred's money, I will place it on something soon!

[Doobs]

For those that cam get on with Shy, Kvyat is 100/30 to beat Sainz over the season.  I think Kvyat has been judged a bit harshly over last few months, and think this must be a bet.  They even let me have £15, so they are going to lay a fair bit more on a clean account.

FWIW you could drive a bus between the difference in prices, as Sainz is best 5/11.  That means there must be value on at least one side, despite what others may tell you.  Hopefully, our boy is going to be happier this year.  He definitely should be, as it is a bit of a surprise he made it to this season.

Not for thread obv.

[Peter-27]

No its 14/1 for the title. Just under 3/1 if he finishes 2nd or 3rd or above 50% the current place market price on betfair. I would take that as a w/o Mercedes price, if to want to assume the mercs finish 1-2in the drivers championship, all day every day

DungBeetle has it right here:

The problem is you weren't familiar with the Vettell bet terminology it seems, so need to get comfortable with that before declaring it not to be value.  I don't think Doobs is taking it personally as he has let it slide in the past.  I imagine he's just frustrated at a clear value spot being put down!

It's 14/1 for the title, not under 3/1 for the title - in which case the Vettel bet IS value. Doobs, I apologise. I'm glad we got to the bottom of that because I was going a little crazy trying to understand why the opposition was so vociferous when it seemed so obvious to me. I'll shut up next time haha

Talking of freak results wasn't there a Johnny Herbert win for Stewart when he made an epic tyre selection at the right time?  One of the Hakkinen winning seasons I think.

Yep, 1999 European GP, brilliant race.

Hakkinen did indeed win the title this season.

How disappointing.  I don't think there are going to be spread markets for driver/constructor points this year. 

To be fair, they have lost a considerable amount of money in these markets over the last three seasons 

Great write ups on the F1. Might watch the odd race this year.

THIS ^ has made my day.

@Dekka I sadly don't have the time to give your posts the full response they deserve, but they did make for fascinating reading. Interested to know who in the paddock you keep in touch with, given that I have certain contacts as well - particularly at Williams where I used to work myself not so long ago. Perhaps that's a discussion for PM's though.

I agree with large parts of what you said, and also disagree with large portions too - which is to be expected at this stage in the season - it really depends on who everyone is talking to. F1 is very political and it's hard to know who to trust at times - which is why I tend to formulate most of my opinions based on what I'm seeing. These days, I run a large Indian motorsport community, and I'll post the pre-season analysis I did for that community below to share my insights.

One thing I do want to pick up on is your assessment of Jolyon. He's a bizarre driver. As you touched upon, he takes a long time to get used to a car (typically 3-5 seasons), but when he does, he's utterly unbeatable. The guys at Renault are not stupid, and are fully aware of this too, and that's why they've kept him on, despite a quite poor (as expected!) first season. If he can maintain his seat for another three seasons or so (and I see no reason why he can't), he'll be one of the best drivers on the grid. In my opinion, season two is too early for him to be beating a driver of Nico's quality, so I would say 7/2 is about right and won't personally be placing that bet. However, I might well be tempted at that price next season.

For those that cam get on with Shy, Kvyat is 100/30 to beat Sainz over the season.  I think Kvyat has been judged a bit harshly over last few months, and think this must be a bet.  They even let me have £15, so they are going to lay a fair bit more on a clean account.

FWIW you could drive a bus between the difference in prices, as Sainz is best 5/11.  That means there must be value on at least one side, despite what others may tell you.  Hopefully, our boy is going to be happier this year.  He definitely should be, as it is a bit of a surprise he made it to this season.

Not for thread obv.

I'm very conscious of offending you, so I'm going to try be as constructive as possible here, whilst still being honest with my opinions - which is what I am here for after all.

Daniil is an extremely talented driver, and one who had a dreadful season in 2016 due to being utterly brow-beaten by Red Bull with the demotion to Toro Rosso. While I do understand why they did that, I don't agree with it. It would have been better to sack him completely. Daniil went from being a confident young man to being shy and withdrawn overnight. It clearly affected him big time. Even in interviews, he was previously so confident, but since the demotion he became more uncertain in himself - you can even notice physical changes like his ache flaring up after the relegation to Toro Rosso.

I do think it's possible that Daniil could re-discover his form after a long break, and I hope he's taken the time to do some mental preparation for this season, because that's what he needs more than anything. It's undeniable that the talent is there. Don't forget, this is a man who beat Daniel Ricciardo in 2015 at Red Bull.

Given the uncertainty about which Daniil will turn up this season (the man or the boy), and given his opposition is the consistent Carlos Sainz, I'm struggling with 10/3, but it's very close to being a bet.

My pre-season analysis:

"Okay, pre-season test analysis time!

This pecking order is the result of 37 hours analysis, and represents where I think teams will FINISH in the 2017 season.

We always say that lap times in testing don't mean anything, and that was more true than ever this season. This is the first time we've ever seen a major aero regulation change with heavy limits on track time, CFD teraflops and wind tunnel time. When an aero change comes along, the absolute key is understanding baseline performance - this means building up knowledge of how airflow is behaving around the car with minimal aero additions. Once you understand the baseline, you can then add devices, winglets and flaps to the car, without track testing, and still have a reasonable confidence in their impact on the entire car. The problem is that it takes a long time to understand the baseline package, and the teams spent a good five/six days analysing this baseline which makes those lap times utterly redundant. The last two days saw more aero parts hitting the cars, and lap times tumbled. However, even on final day of testing, teams were still ramping up pace .. put simply, they just ran out of time to test everything they needed to! No-one was anywhere near their ultimate pace in testing due to the lack of track time available. Honestly, I think even after the Australian GP has finished we won't really know the pecking order; the teams just don't have enough time to do everything they need to.

Naturally, this makes reaching any conclusions extremely challenging. That being said, where you can pick up an idea of who is quick is by watching the footage from testing. The idea, which has served me extremely well in the past, is not to look at who's going fast, but to look at the driveability and tendencies of the cars. Who's smooth? Who's balance is poor? Who's wrestling the car? Who's using the full width of the track? Which cars look sluggish etc. etc. These are the things that give us insights into the pecking order, along with some insider information. Factor in development rates, reliability and driver talent then you've then got a projection for how the season will end.

So enough talking, here are my predictions:

1) Mercedes - there's a lot of hype around Ferrari's potential this season, but given the tracks F1 races on, and the importance of top speeds, I can't see past Mercedes for the title and think they'll win the championship as comfortably as in 2016.

2) Red Bull - this may surprise some people. I believe Red Bull were further away from their optimal performance than any other team in testing. While Ferrari may well start out quicker, Red Bull should be able to close that gap as the season progresses. Reliability is a concern though, so it should be close with Ferrari.

3) Ferrari - fastest in testing, but running much closer to their optimal performance than other teams meaning that they have less to gain over the season. Development rate is usually slower than Red Bull's.

4) Williams - I expect them to finish 4th, once again in a close battle with Force India. A fast car, and they should be able to maintain that if they don't go the wrong way with development as they have in previous seasons. How long rookie Lance Stroll takes to feel comfortable in the car will be crucial for them.

5) Sahara Force India Formula One Team - actually expecting us to start off as the 6th (or 7th) quickest team behind Haas (and/or Renault). However one of the traits of our team is that our first major update comes for the Spanish GP (race #5 in 2017), rather than the first race of the season. Our development pace is one of the best, but we'll need some luck to maintain our 4th place from last season. Should be close.

6) Renault - engine reliability concerns, a slow development rate, and a poor management structure will see the French squad struggle below expectation all season. Will be close to Force India, without ever really threatening.

7) Haas - they've produced a car that should actually be surprisingly quick out of the box. They're a difficult team to place having only one season of experience in F1. The only things preventing them finishing 6th will be eternal struggles with the brakes (carried over from last season), and the lack of power compared to the Mercedes-engined teams.

Sauber - car looked reasonably balanced in testing, expecting a very tight battle between them and Toro Rosso this season. Sauber get the higher prediction mainly due to starting the season as the faster team, having a Ferrari engine (compared to the Renault engines at Toro Rosso), and having a stronger driver pairing.

9) Toro Rosso - expecting them to start off as the slowest team, but their development rate is quite good and they'll be battling, and beating, the Sauber's towards the end of the season.

10) McLaren - no pace, no reliability. I have contacts who have gone into detail about some of the failures they had during pre-season testing, and they're fundamental flaws with the design. It's going to take more than a season to sort out those engines. Also, contrary to popular belief, McLaren are extremely cash strapped and don't have the finances to properly develop the car. Expecting them to withdraw from F1 by the end of 2021 at best."

I'll be looking into the markets again tomorrow - I think I've already identified a few more spots for us

[Doobs]

No its 14/1 for the title. Just under 3/1 if he finishes 2nd or 3rd or above 50% the current place market price on betfair. I would take that as a w/o Mercedes price, if to want to assume the mercs finish 1-2in the drivers championship, all day every day

DungBeetle has it right here:

The problem is you weren't familiar with the Vettell bet terminology it seems, so need to get comfortable with that before declaring it not to be value.  I don't think Doobs is taking it personally as he has let it slide in the past.  I imagine he's just frustrated at a clear value spot being put down!

It's 14/1 for the title, not under 3/1 for the title - in which case the Vettel bet IS value. Doobs, I apologise. I'm glad we got to the bottom of that because I was going a little crazy trying to understand why the opposition was so vociferous when it seemed so obvious to me. I'll shut up next time haha

Talking of freak results wasn't there a Johnny Herbert win for Stewart when he made an epic tyre selection at the right time?  One of the Hakkinen winning seasons I think.

Yep, 1999 European GP, brilliant race.

Hakkinen did indeed win the title this season.

How disappointing.  I don't think there are going to be spread markets for driver/constructor points this year. 

To be fair, they have lost a considerable amount of money in these markets over the last three seasons 

Great write ups on the F1. Might watch the odd race this year.

THIS ^ has made my day.

@Dekka I sadly don't have the time to give your posts the full response they deserve, but they did make for fascinating reading. Interested to know who in the paddock you keep in touch with, given that I have certain contacts as well - particularly at Williams where I used to work myself not so long ago. Perhaps that's a discussion for PM's though.

I agree with large parts of what you said, and also disagree with large portions too - which is to be expected at this stage in the season - it really depends on who everyone is talking to. F1 is very political and it's hard to know who to trust at times - which is why I tend to formulate most of my opinions based on what I'm seeing. These days, I run a large Indian motorsport community, and I'll post the pre-season analysis I did for that community below to share my insights.

One thing I do want to pick up on is your assessment of Jolyon. He's a bizarre driver. As you touched upon, he takes a long time to get used to a car (typically 3-5 seasons), but when he does, he's utterly unbeatable. The guys at Renault are not stupid, and are fully aware of this too, and that's why they've kept him on, despite a quite poor (as expected!) first season. If he can maintain his seat for another three seasons or so (and I see no reason why he can't), he'll be one of the best drivers on the grid. In my opinion, season two is too early for him to be beating a driver of Nico's quality, so I would say 7/2 is about right and won't personally be placing that bet. However, I might well be tempted at that price next season.

For those that cam get on with Shy, Kvyat is 100/30 to beat Sainz over the season.  I think Kvyat has been judged a bit harshly over last few months, and think this must be a bet.  They even let me have £15, so they are going to lay a fair bit more on a clean account.

FWIW you could drive a bus between the difference in prices, as Sainz is best 5/11.  That means there must be value on at least one side, despite what others may tell you.  Hopefully, our boy is going to be happier this year.  He definitely should be, as it is a bit of a surprise he made it to this season.

Not for thread obv.

I'm very conscious of offending you, so I'm going to try be as constructive as possible here, whilst still being honest with my opinions - which is what I am here for after all.

Daniil is an extremely talented driver, and one who had a dreadful season in 2016 due to being utterly brow-beaten by Red Bull with the demotion to Toro Rosso. While I do understand why they did that, I don't agree with it. It would have been better to sack him completely. Daniil went from being a confident young man to being shy and withdrawn overnight. It clearly affected him big time. Even in interviews, he was previously so confident, but since the demotion he became more uncertain in himself - you can even notice physical changes like his ache flaring up after the relegation to Toro Rosso.

I do think it's possible that Daniil could re-discover his form after a long break, and I hope he's taken the time to do some mental preparation for this season, because that's what he needs more than anything. It's undeniable that the talent is there. Don't forget, this is a man who beat Daniel Ricciardo in 2015 at Red Bull.

Given the uncertainty about which Daniil will turn up this season (the man or the boy), and given his opposition is the consistent Carlos Sainz, I'm struggling with 10/3, but it's very close to being a bet.

My pre-season analysis:

"Okay, pre-season test analysis time!

This pecking order is the result of 37 hours analysis, and represents where I think teams will FINISH in the 2017 season.

We always say that lap times in testing don't mean anything, and that was more true than ever this season. This is the first time we've ever seen a major aero regulation change with heavy limits on track time, CFD teraflops and wind tunnel time. When an aero change comes along, the absolute key is understanding baseline performance - this means building up knowledge of how airflow is behaving around the car with minimal aero additions. Once you understand the baseline, you can then add devices, winglets and flaps to the car, without track testing, and still have a reasonable confidence in their impact on the entire car. The problem is that it takes a long time to understand the baseline package, and the teams spent a good five/six days analysing this baseline which makes those lap times utterly redundant. The last two days saw more aero parts hitting the cars, and lap times tumbled. However, even on final day of testing, teams were still ramping up pace .. put simply, they just ran out of time to test everything they needed to! No-one was anywhere near their ultimate pace in testing due to the lack of track time available. Honestly, I think even after the Australian GP has finished we won't really know the pecking order; the teams just don't have enough time to do everything they need to.

Naturally, this makes reaching any conclusions extremely challenging. That being said, where you can pick up an idea of who is quick is by watching the footage from testing. The idea, which has served me extremely well in the past, is not to look at who's going fast, but to look at the driveability and tendencies of the cars. Who's smooth? Who's balance is poor? Who's wrestling the car? Who's using the full width of the track? Which cars look sluggish etc. etc. These are the things that give us insights into the pecking order, along with some insider information. Factor in development rates, reliability and driver talent then you've then got a projection for how the season will end.

So enough talking, here are my predictions:

1) Mercedes - there's a lot of hype around Ferrari's potential this season, but given the tracks F1 races on, and the importance of top speeds, I can't see past Mercedes for the title and think they'll win the championship as comfortably as in 2016.

2) Red Bull - this may surprise some people. I believe Red Bull were further away from their optimal performance than any other team in testing. While Ferrari may well start out quicker, Red Bull should be able to close that gap as the season progresses. Reliability is a concern though, so it should be close with Ferrari.

3) Ferrari - fastest in testing, but running much closer to their optimal performance than other teams meaning that they have less to gain over the season. Development rate is usually slower than Red Bull's.

4) Williams - I expect them to finish 4th, once again in a close battle with Force India. A fast car, and they should be able to maintain that if they don't go the wrong way with development as they have in previous seasons. How long rookie Lance Stroll takes to feel comfortable in the car will be crucial for them.

5) Sahara Force India Formula One Team - actually expecting us to start off as the 6th (or 7th) quickest team behind Haas (and/or Renault). However one of the traits of our team is that our first major update comes for the Spanish GP (race #5 in 2017), rather than the first race of the season. Our development pace is one of the best, but we'll need some luck to maintain our 4th place from last season. Should be close.

6) Renault - engine reliability concerns, a slow development rate, and a poor management structure will see the French squad struggle below expectation all season. Will be close to Force India, without ever really threatening.

7) Haas - they've produced a car that should actually be surprisingly quick out of the box. They're a difficult team to place having only one season of experience in F1. The only things preventing them finishing 6th will be eternal struggles with the brakes (carried over from last season), and the lack of power compared to the Mercedes-engined teams.

Sauber - car looked reasonably balanced in testing, expecting a very tight battle between them and Toro Rosso this season. Sauber get the higher prediction mainly due to starting the season as the faster team, having a Ferrari engine (compared to the Renault engines at Toro Rosso), and having a stronger driver pairing.

9) Toro Rosso - expecting them to start off as the slowest team, but their development rate is quite good and they'll be battling, and beating, the Sauber's towards the end of the season.

10) McLaren - no pace, no reliability. I have contacts who have gone into detail about some of the failures they had during pre-season testing, and they're fundamental flaws with the design. It's going to take more than a season to sort out those engines. Also, contrary to popular belief, McLaren are extremely cash strapped and don't have the finances to properly develop the car. Expecting them to withdraw from F1 by the end of 2021 at best."

I'll be looking into the markets again tomorrow - I think I've already identified a few more spots for us

Hello Peter

You don't have to respond to every F1 post. 

The Kvyat/Sainz bet shouldn't take a lot of thinking.  It is a 87% book, so if you bet blind, or bet both you are going to make 14% profit.  That is all the thinking you really need.  All I have done is pick a man as I think they are closer than the market thinks.   I know he had a bad old season, but I rate Ricciardo above Sainz and Kvyat finished above him.

Likewise with the Palmer bet.  You have one at 7/2, the other 4/9.  Again it is a 91% book, so we can either bet both and get a guaranteed profit or pick one.

Your only concern is that if I keep sniping these kind of situations do I lose my account/get restricted.

There are still a couple of other less than 100% books there.  Perez is 2/5 vs Ocon 7/2 for instance.  If Stan laid a bet to anyone, 2/5 Perez looks best, though as I said above you can just bet both, accounts allowing.

Fwiw the Kvyat price has gone anyway.  Not checked the other.

[Horneris]

I'm hoping some more firms release markets for quarter betting as I got some cracking bets for the ladies quarter betting.

 

[bergeroo]

I'm hoping some more firms release markets for quarter betting as I got some cracking bets for the ladies quarter betting.

 

356 quarter prices seem a little stingy all over. Uni/tripl8have Jordan Thompson at 300/1 for his quarter. If anyone likes RBA, he is 16/1 for his quarter on there... I took 16/1 on Mladenovic for her quarter with a non high street firm.

What you got?!

[TightEnd]

Basketball portfolio update please

do we have any live ones? anything that can be admined as a loser?

NBA Championship   NY Knicks   50/1   20
NBA Coach of the year   Brad Stevens   8/1   20
NBA Atlantic division   boston celtics   ev   20
All NBA First team   Towns   13/5   15
NBA Top points scorer   Harden   3/1   20
western conference   spurs    5/1   30
NBA Championship   spurs    8/1   30
NBA Defensive player   Leonard   4/1   20

thanks

[arbboy]

Basketball portfolio update please

do we have any live ones? anything that can be admined as a loser?

NBA Championship   NY Knicks   50/1   20
NBA Coach of the year   Brad Stevens   8/1   20
NBA Atlantic division   boston celtics   ev   20
All NBA First team   Towns   13/5   15
NBA Top points scorer   Harden   3/1   20
western conference   spurs    5/1   30
NBA Championship   spurs    8/1   30
NBA Defensive player   Leonard   4/1   20

thanks

Knicks beat.  Everything else is pretty live.

[nuros]

Some very interesting F1 discussion, I feel like I've learnt something, thanks guys!

[Karabiner]

The Dell WGC matchplay starts today with 32 18-hole matches between the 64 highest-ranked available players in the world.

If a match ends up all-square on the 18th green then the players get half a point each and these draws are priced up either 13/2 or 7/1 with one exception.

Is there anything to exploit mathematically in the price of these draws if neither player is odds-on?

32 horse super-califragilistic yankee anyone?

[Peter-27]

Not going to be looking at the F1 markets today.

Had a significant event happen that has shaken me up a little bit so I'll get round to it tomorrow. Sorry. I'm fine BTW.

[baldock92]

Basketball portfolio update please

do we have any live ones? anything that can be admined as a loser?

NBA Championship   NY Knicks   50/1   20
NBA Coach of the year   Brad Stevens   8/1   20
NBA Atlantic division   boston celtics   ev   20
All NBA First team   Towns   13/5   15
NBA Top points scorer   Harden   3/1   20
western conference   spurs    5/1   30
NBA Championship   spurs    8/1   30
NBA Defensive player   Leonard   4/1   20

thanks

A few of the bets could provide a few nice sweats over the next couple of weeks and months:

-The spurs are into 13/2 best price for the championship and 4/1 for the Western conference. They're sitting comfortably 2nd in the west with 54wins over 70 games, only bettered by favourites golden state with 57/71 wins. Will be a very interesting post season series if these 2 meet in the western final
-Boston are into 1/4 for the Atlantic division top team, Toronto are the only team that could beat them to the top spot. Boston have 45 wins, Toronto 42, both through 71 games. Shows how much tougher the west is when you compare the spurs and celtics, both 2nd in their respective conferences, with the spurs notching up 9 more wins than boston (whilst having played a game less!).
-Harden 2nd in points but averaging 2.0 less points per game than westbrook, going to be tough to catch. Don't think the bet is each way?
-Kawhi Leonard as Defensive player of the season, could still happen but I really can't see past Draymond Green winning it this time round. Time will tell.