I'm biased 'cos I knew him as a kid but I think Jolyon Palmer could surprise a few people and outperform his more experienced team mate Hulkenberg so I'll no doubt do my conkers this year backing JP in match bets v The Hulk race after race.
I felt a bit of a cheat after posting that long & waffly F1 post because I didn't put a solid recommendation up but I think I've found a value spot that eliminates any risk of whether the new Renault chassis and engine combo is actually competitive with the rest of the grid. Here's the reasoning behind my recommendation:
I mentioned that I thought Jolyon Palmer might give his new team mate Nico Hulkenberg a run for his money so I've been taking a look at the 2017 season driver match markets.
General opinion is that Hulk is the better driver, he may well be and the bookies make him a big favourite. Hulkenbergs's certainly got bags more experience in F1 than Palmer but as I said in the other post Palmer has a history of improving with each season in every category he's raced in.
2009 was Palmer's debut season at what I would consider to be the elite level of motorsport where he raced in the the FIA Formula 2 series and he came 22nd, he was a revelation in 2010 and he ended up finishing 2nd in the championship, winning 5 of the 18 races.
After Formula 2 Palmer moved to GP2 (one rung below F1) and his championship finishing positions during his four year GP2 career were as follows:
2011 - 28th
2012 - 11th
2013 - 7th
2014 - 1st
As I said in the original post Palmer dominated the championship in 2014 and won the title with three races to spare achieving an all-time points record in the series. That's no mean feat when you consider some of the drivers that have been in GP2 over the years. Other former GP2 champions include Rosberg, Hamilton. Hulkenberg and Grosjean.
2017 is Palmer's 2nd full season in F1 so we should expect him to improve from last year and he'll need to if he's to score more points than Hulkenberg. It's worth remembering that he spent 2015 as the reserve driver with Lotus (who evolved into the current Renault team) and gained a lot of F1 experience driving the Lotus at tests and in practice sessions at various race weekends. In short he's had quite a bit more than one full year in the sport.
Last year in Palmer's debut F1 season he was up against a tough team mate in Kevin Magnussen widely regarded as one of the top young drivers around who'd previously had two years experience at McLaren where he performed well alongside Jenson Button. In 2016 Magnussen definitely had a big edge over Palmer in the early races but instead of crumbling under the immense pressure he was under from pundits and public opinion Palmer found his feet in F1 and things were much closer between the two in mid-season.
Towards the end of the 2016 season it was widely acknowledged that the pair were competing for one available seat in the car for this year and Palmer surprised & impressed plenty of people by finishing the season stronger than Magnussen and winning the battle. It was clear that Palmer had proved a few doubters wrong and was a solid, quick racer who fully deserved his place in F1 for this season. I've no doubt he'll continue improving throughout 2017 and he won't be rattled by having Hulkenberg as a team mate at all even if Hulkenberg starts the season stronger.
Meanwhile Hulkenberg's joined Renault from Force India where he's spent the last three seasons alongside Sergio Perez. In all three years Hulkenberg's managed to outqualify Perez but for the last two seasons Perez has had a better record in the races, notably scoring more points and having better overall finishing positions than Hulkenberg. Presumably this is why Force India have kept Perez and replaced Hulkenberg with Esteban Ocon for the 2017 season. The good news for Hulk is that he won't have to drive a pink Force India this year.
Before joining Force India Hulkenberg's career in F1 was as follows:
2010 was Hulkenberg's debut season in F1 and he raced at Williams alongside the experienced Rubens Barichello. He surprised everyone in motorsport when he secured Williams first pole position for 5 years in Brazil but Barrichello had the edge over him in points scored, race finishing positions and qualifying. Despite a relatively promising start to Hulk's F1 career Williams decided to keep Barrichello on for 2011 and Hulkenberg was replaced by Pastor Maldonado which is something no F1 driver wants on their cv! Hulkenberg spent 2011 as Force India's test driver.
Hulkenberg returned to the grid in 2012 alongside Paul Di Resta at Force India. The pair were very evenly matched throughout the season with and dead-heated in qualifying by both coming out on top in 10 races. Hulkenberg narrowly outscored Di Resta in the points battle and he finished ahead of Di Resta in 12 races but behind him in 9. Clearly there wasn't much between the two of them. At this stage of his career I'd rate Palmer as a better all round driver than Di Resta and certainly not considerably worse.
In 2013 Hulkenberg joined Sauber and he blew away his rookie team mate Esteban Guitierrez who spent last season being convincingly outperformed by Grosjean in the Haas team and he's now off to try his luck in Formula E.
In short, other that when alongside Guiterrez who was a rookie at the time Hulkenberg's record against his various "middle of the grid" team mates isn't particularly remarkable and certainly not good enough in my opinion to make him a 1/8 favourite to outperform Palmer this year which is where PP have him before the season starts!
One problem with a match bet between the two Renault drivers is that points for all teams other than the big four of Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull and Williams will be really hard to come by. Renault, Force India, Haas, Toro Rosso and maybe even McLaren will be spending most weekends battling to finish 9th and 10th securing 2pts or 1pt in the process. It's unrealistic to think either of the Renault drivers will score points on a regular basis so this is likely to be a low scoring heat. One freak result for either driver such as 10pts for a 5th place in a crash riddled Monaco or a rain affected race at any circuit would make it hard for the other driver to make up the difference.
Having said all of the above I do make Hulkenberg the favourite to beat Palmer over the season but I think it's closer than most people and the bookies seem to think. I'd be happy to be on Palmer to win this match bet at 2/1 which is where he's generally priced. I'd have recommended the bet for the thread with Shy who have Palmer at 5/2 which I think's a bit of value but PP are well out of line at 7/2! I can't get on with PP but my kids can so they've both invested on my behalf this afternoon. I know the thread can't get on with PP either but if someone can help out I think this is a good spot which also gives a nice season long sweat.
Recommended Bet: 2017 Formula 1 season matched bet. Jolyon Palmer to beat Nico Hulkenberg (stake should probably be up to you guys - £20?) @ 7/2 with PPHere's the link to the PP matched bet page, couldn't see them on Oddschecker:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/motor-racing/formula-1?ev_oc_grp_ids=1183321
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