Tips for Tikay

[rinswun]

United have struggled to win games with their first choice team out (7 wins in 18 this season) and have arguably been going off too short all season. This is primarily Nicky Butt's youth team plus Pogba, Bailly and Rooney - names are up on Utd's website. Their youth team isn't even especially strong compared to the likes of Everton, Chelsea and City. Seems like we are taking a price based solely on the shirt rather than the players in it. Doesn't feel like it's value to me.

Seriously, where has anyone said back them because they are Man U?  


They are the outsiders at home.   Palace could be on the beach, I'd say more likely.  You can can the first few games this season, then maybe can a few where they have been unlucky.   They have been all over teams on the stats, and even though they have been a bit shit this season, they have 30 points more than Palace, and are in the Europa Cup final.

It is near 2/1, not 1/2 and Man U are at home.  Sure they could lose, but we only need them to win 1 in 3.

My point is how many games would you expect a group of 18 year olds against a battle tested lower half premier league team? I doubt they'd win 1 in 5 let alone 1 in 3, even taking into account the half goal home advantage.

Will take 4/1.  How much would you lay

Doobs, you appear to be morphing into Arbs - always had you down as a brash, loud, knowitall

Lol. Why would I lay 4/1 when I could just lay the on betfair if I fancied?! Anyway, the fact is that in my opinion, the 2/1 is probably not very wrong given the relative strength of the team being put out. You mention the points points differential between the two teams but those are points accumulated by a completely different, higher class, more experienced set of players. As such, I don't feel it is value. If you or others disagree and feel like it is because it's a Man Utd team at home at 2/1 in the PL then fair enough.

Edit - I accept that Palace also have nothing to play for which may well add more randomness into the equation. Ultimately it just feels like a no bet game to me.

[Spudy]

United have struggled to win games with their first choice team out (7 wins in 18 this season) and have arguably been going off too short all season. This is primarily Nicky Butt's youth team plus Pogba, Bailly and Rooney - names are up on Utd's website. Their youth team isn't even especially strong compared to the likes of Everton, Chelsea and City. Seems like we are taking a price based solely on the shirt rather than the players in it. Doesn't feel like it's value to me.

Seriously, where has anyone said back them because they are Man U?  


They are the outsiders at home.   Palace could be on the beach, I'd say more likely.  You can can the first few games this season, then maybe can a few where they have been unlucky.   They have been all over teams on the stats, and even though they have been a bit shit this season, they have 30 points more than Palace, and are in the Europa Cup final.

It is near 2/1, not 1/2 and Man U are at home.  Sure they could lose, but we only need them to win 1 in 3.

My point is how many games would you expect a group of 18 year olds against a battle tested lower half premier league team? I doubt they'd win 1 in 5 let alone 1 in 3, even taking into account the half goal home advantage.

Will take 4/1.  How much would you lay

Doobs, you appear to be morphing into Arbs - always had you down as a brash, loud, knowitall

Lol. Why would I lay 4/1 when I could just lay the on betfair if I fancied?! Anyway, the fact is that in my opinion, the 2/1 is probably not very wrong given the relative strength of the team being put out. You mention the points points differential between the two teams but those are points accumulated by a completely different, higher class, more experienced set of players. As such, I don't feel it is value. If you or others disagree and feel like it is because it's a Man Utd team at home at 2/1 in the PL then fair enough.

Edit - I accept that Palace also have nothing to play for which may well add more randomness into the equation. Ultimately it just feels like a no bet game to me.

Oddly palace did beat Chelsea and Arsenal recently and kept Tottenham out till late, granted they recently got beat convincingly by Man City. I cant see how Man Utd is a good bet, given the squad which they wil have for this afternoon, Rangers played a few kids and Aberdeen beat them at Ibrox for first time in like 25 years, the same poor Palace record can end today, assuming that Palace have right mid set today.

[Doobs]

United have struggled to win games with their first choice team out (7 wins in 18 this season) and have arguably been going off too short all season. This is primarily Nicky Butt's youth team plus Pogba, Bailly and Rooney - names are up on Utd's website. Their youth team isn't even especially strong compared to the likes of Everton, Chelsea and City. Seems like we are taking a price based solely on the shirt rather than the players in it. Doesn't feel like it's value to me.

Seriously, where has anyone said back them because they are Man U?  


They are the outsiders at home.   Palace could be on the beach, I'd say more likely.  You can can the first few games this season, then maybe can a few where they have been unlucky.   They have been all over teams on the stats, and even though they have been a bit shit this season, they have 30 points more than Palace, and are in the Europa Cup final.

It is near 2/1, not 1/2 and Man U are at home.  Sure they could lose, but we only need them to win 1 in 3.

My point is how many games would you expect a group of 18 year olds against a battle tested lower half premier league team? I doubt they'd win 1 in 5 let alone 1 in 3, even taking into account the half goal home advantage.

Will take 4/1.  How much would you lay

Doobs, you appear to be morphing into Arbs - always had you down as a brash, loud, knowitall

Lol. Why would I lay 4/1 when I could just lay the on betfair if I fancied?! Anyway, the fact is that in my opinion, the 2/1 is probably not very wrong given the relative strength of the team being put out. You mention the points points differential between the two teams but those are points accumulated by a completely different, higher class, more experienced set of players. As such, I don't feel it is value. If you or others disagree and feel like it is because it's a Man Utd team at home at 2/1 in the PL then fair enough.

Edit - I accept that Palace also have nothing to play for which may well add more randomness into the equation. Ultimately it just feels like a no bet game to me.

Oddly palace did beat Chelsea and Arsenal recently and kept Tottenham out till late, granted they recently got beat convincingly by Man City. I cant see how Man Utd is a good bet, given the squad which they wil have for this afternoon, Rangers played a few kids and Aberdeen beat them at Ibrox for first time in like 25 years, the same poor Palace record can end today, assuming that Palace have right mid set today.

Oh come on, this is getting ludicrous.  Nobody is saying we are betting just because they are Man U or on 25 year records.

And how many times in the last 25 years have Aberdeen played Rangers when they have been the better side?  That is a very good example of why you should frequently throw 25 year records in the bin.

The price is obviously massively adjusted for the Man U squad, it is just down to instinct/opinion on the right price as there aren't good precidents.   

 

[4KSuited]

Man Utd v Palace

I kinda thought this had bore draw written all over it. Priced at 23/10 (everyday), this seems the best value bet in a match where it can be argued both teams are already on a beach. Someone said something about the Utd players hoping to play well enough to get into the Europa Final? A place on the bench perhaps 😐

I'm not having a bet myself; I'd agree that on balance it's one to swerve.

[hhyftrftdr]

Any bookies doing total goal markets for the last day of the season tomorrow? I've had a look but can't see anything kicking about. I'm sure someone usually does it on the very rare occasions that all PL games kick off at the same time.

Agree about swerving the united game, unless there was a market on it being the dullest 90 minutes of your life.

[Peter-27]

Paris ePrix begins shortly, but I haven't found any value spots all weekend sadly - just in case you were wondering why I haven't posted 

[hhyftrftdr]

Thoughts on City to potentially run riot at Watford tomorrow?

I'm reading they have a lot of players missing, particularly at the back, and are in poor form (5 defeats in a row), whereas Pep has come out saying this is like a final for us, so fully expecting a strong starting XI. There is of course the matter of it being WM's last game for them....is it gonna be Watford really trying to send him on his way with a positive result, or are their squad firmly on the beach since hitting 40 points?


-2 is 15/8
-3 is 9/2

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/watford-v-man-city/handicaps

[tikay]

Thoughts on City to potentially run riot at Watford tomorrow?

I'm reading they have a lot of players missing, particularly at the back, and are in poor form (5 defeats in a row), whereas Pep has come out saying this is like a final for us, so fully expecting a strong starting XI. There is of course the matter of it being WM's last game for them....is it gonna be Watford really trying to send him on his way with a positive result, or are their squad firmly on the beach since hitting 40 points?


-2 is 15/8
-3 is 9/2

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/watford-v-man-city/handicaps

I would have no idea what the best angle to attack this one is, but for sure, Watford won't be pulling up too many trees tomorrow based on recent performances. 

[hhyftrftdr]

Thoughts on City to potentially run riot at Watford tomorrow?

I'm reading they have a lot of players missing, particularly at the back, and are in poor form (5 defeats in a row), whereas Pep has come out saying this is like a final for us, so fully expecting a strong starting XI. There is of course the matter of it being WM's last game for them....is it gonna be Watford really trying to send him on his way with a positive result, or are their squad firmly on the beach since hitting 40 points?


-2 is 15/8
-3 is 9/2

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/watford-v-man-city/handicaps

I would have no idea what the best angle to attack this one is, but for sure, Watford won't be pulling up too many trees tomorrow based on recent performances. 

Yeah its a tricky one and I'm totally biased so would be interested in the thoughts of neutrals/those less involved.

Just feels like City are really clicking at the moment. We only stumbled over the line vs Leicester (who perhaps have a point to prove and want their caretaker manager to get the gig), but we put a then relegation fighting Palace to the sword, and really should've had 5 or 6 against WBA (a team with nothing to prove whatsoever and it showed).

Can't imagine it will be a carnival atmosphere down at Vicarage Road, and Pep isn't the type of coach to let his demands slide, and obv we guarantee 3rd with a win and thus no qualification game for the CL....

[SuuPRlim]

on the Palace - Man U game, it might be a bit of an anomaly game but there's pretty strong money behind it on BF 2.8/2.84/3.4

[SuuPRlim]

Thoughts on City to potentially run riot at Watford tomorrow?

I'm reading they have a lot of players missing, particularly at the back, and are in poor form (5 defeats in a row), whereas Pep has come out saying this is like a final for us, so fully expecting a strong starting XI. There is of course the matter of it being WM's last game for them....is it gonna be Watford really trying to send him on his way with a positive result, or are their squad firmly on the beach since hitting 40 points?


-2 is 15/8
-3 is 9/2

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/watford-v-man-city/handicaps

I would have no idea what the best angle to attack this one is, but for sure, Watford won't be pulling up too many trees tomorrow based on recent performances. 

Yeah its a tricky one and I'm totally biased so would be interested in the thoughts of neutrals/those less involved.

Just feels like City are really clicking at the moment. We only stumbled over the line vs Leicester (who perhaps have a point to prove and want their caretaker manager to get the gig), but we put a then relegation fighting Palace to the sword, and really should've had 5 or 6 against WBA (a team with nothing to prove whatsoever and it showed).

Can't imagine it will be a carnival atmosphere down at Vicarage Road, and Pep isn't the type of coach to let his demands slide, and obv we guarantee 3rd with a win and thus no qualification game for the CL....

Are you not better off with the Asain Handicap -2 5/4 with Paddy Power if you're lucky enough to be welcome to place bets there?

[maldini32]

on the Palace - Man U game, it might be a bit of an anomaly game but there's pretty strong money behind it on BF 2.8/2.84/3.4

What about unders on the goals or no goalscorer.

Mourinho will set them up in his usual 6-3-1 formation and Palace aren't the most expansive of teams.

Agree thought it's a tricky betting proposition on the 1x2

[tikay]

Amazing scenes in the Exeter Chiefs - Saracens Aviva Premiership semi-final.

Tighty in his Road to Riches column tipped Exeter (7/4) to upset Saracens who went off at 1/2.

Exeter led from the 42nd minute, but with 5 minutes to go, Saracens took the lead, only for Exeter to shade it 18-16 with the very last play of the game. 

Great game to watch, & one played by real men. 

[SuuPRlim]

on the Palace - Man U game, it might be a bit of an anomaly game but there's pretty strong money behind it on BF 2.8/2.84/3.4

What about unders on the goals or no goalscorer.

Mourinho will set them up in his usual 6-3-1 formation and Palace aren't the most expansive of teams.

Agree thought it's a tricky betting proposition on the 1x2

What about NO to both teams to score? 2.05 - 2.15 available...

*100% not a suggestion just speculating

[maldini32]

Its the IPL final tomorrow Pune v Mumbai.

There are a couple of lovely spots, thanks to our friends at khoral. My account with them is dead so go batshit crazy.

Parthiv Patel over 0.5 6 s @ 9/4 with khoral, under 0.5 @ 4/6 with bfsb - arb/freeroll howver you wanna play it.

over 9.5 6 s @ 10/11 with khoral under 12.5 6 s with a few firms @ 5/6


RECOMMENDATION

I like a bet in the MOM market.

My usual tactic with this is picking allrounders who bat in the top 5/6 and generally ball the full quota of 4 overs so in effect you get 2 hits at getting the MOM.

I've been impressed by Krunal Pandaya, he ticks both boxes and can clear the fence. you can get 18s with sly and bfred, if you cant get on with them the general 16s flying about is fine.

Make sure you pick the right Pandaya as he's brother Hardik will also be playing.

so £20 on Krunal Pandya to get MOM @ 18/1