Ealing acton and central
" EALING CENTRAL & ACTON LABOUR MAJORITY: 274 prediction LAB HOLD
Considering they're projected to win well over 50 seats from Labour, one would expect number three on the Tory target list to be a foregone conclusion. Yet due to this being in London, it is far from impossible that Rupa Huq hangs on, even on a bad night for the party. The Greens have withdrawn to help support her, thus more or less cancelling out the effect of UKIP's withdrawal.
If recent elections and polls are the guide, London will vote very differently from the rest of the country on June 8th. That was very much the case in 2015 and polls show little or no swing to the Tories since. This is a seat that voted 72% for Remain and prime for tactical voting."
published this morning in
https://betting.betfair.com/politics/general-election-2017/betting-guide/index.html?utm_medium=SocialOrganic&utm_source=2147150&utm_campaign=8882721&utm_term=4945338&utm_content=120463926&utm_ad=293559990&rfr=798967&dclid=CJXL7eDxj9QCFaaHUQodPYQEFwi have been speaking to neil about this,his patch
my thoughts the other day to him were
"obviously the big problem is the ukip collapse into con,running around 50% of their vote on some canvassing returns in other constituencies. lib dem to lab to stop con offsets this a bit.
2015
haq 22.2k
con 21.7k
lib 3.1k
ukip 1.7k
so lets assume ukip goes to 800k thats con 22.5k ish this time round. can't see many lab leavers going con so that should be a clean enough figure
leaves rupa needing 400kish or about 13% of the lib votes to hold on
this is a lot more winnable than other high profile lab marginals further north (gedling, bolsover, tom watson seats etc) where the ukip vote is huge so the consolidation into con really puts them at risk
of course london, remain vote big and ukip vote comparatively low
its also why lab at 35% in polls now may beat milibands vote share but might not be matched in seat gains, even though the campaign has been a big hit
anyway could certainly make the case for rupa being favourite here"
and you can still get 5/2
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/ealing-central-and-acton/winning-partytikay is on already, i am on, neil is on.
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