Tips for Tikay

[exstream]

no answers. we are asked to back force india every race.

no time though as it starts at 1pm


Esteban Ocon Monaco Grand Prix Points Finish
11/10
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £42.00




Sergio Perez Monaco Grand Prix Top 6 Finish
13/8
Total Stake: 20.00
Total Returns: 52.40

Give the man longer than 20 min to answer and he's not asking anyone to do anything, he's putting tips up

[TightEnd]

No. He put tips up 20 minutes before an event. More notice would be great, allows these discussions, and allows me time to place the bets easier.

[Peter-27]

isn't the problem with a couple of these that the force india is much less stable on the kerbs than say the toro rossos in the midfield (and even that mclaren chassis is ok round monaco) which are quite quick?

so for perez to get top 6 he needs incidents in the top six and the midfield?

likewise merc,wheelbase too long to match ferrari on a street circuit.bottas might not even qualify top 3 (verstappen could do,mercs could be anywhere 1 to 6?)

Although Force India do have high speed corner stability issues, I wouldn't say they're any worse than Toro Rosso or McLaren. It self-corrects during a race anyway due to the increased weight of the fuel load. McLaren's aren't really a factor with poor race pace and being extremely unlikely to finish.

Before qualifying, I was expecting Sergio to need an incident to finish top six, but with Lewis starting down in 13th, perhaps not.

The Red Bull's don't have the pace to compete with Ferrari and Mercedes at maximum engine power. Ferrari are quicker this weekend, but I'm not sure Kimi can maintain today's pace over a race distance. Expecting Vettel/Bottas/Raikkonen tomorrow. Either way, 20/1 is an insanely good price for Valtteri.

[Peter-27]

No. He put tips up 20 minutes before an event. More notice would be great, allows these discussions, and allows me time to place the bets easier.

It was closer to 35 minutes, which is 75% more time than you suggested it was. But yes, I know it's not ideal, unfortunately life gets in the way sometimes.

no answers. we are asked to back force india every race.

no time though as it starts at 1pm


Esteban Ocon Monaco Grand Prix Points Finish
11/10
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £42.00




Sergio Perez Monaco Grand Prix Top 6 Finish
13/8
Total Stake: 20.00
Total Returns: 52.40

Give the man longer than 20 min to answer and he's not asking anyone to do anything, he's putting tips up

Thank you 

[BigAdz]

Just been paid for Silva to Watford.

Cheers Chompy!!

[bergeroo]

French Open ladies. For anyone with netbet or 10bet. Mladenovic at 6/1 for her quarter is a great bet (perhaps for anyone who isn't on Venus)
https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/womens/player-to-win-2nd-quarter

She is best priced 14/1 outright now.

Pav 8/1 for her quarter as an alternative to the 50s outright that is still around. She couldn't ask for a better draw with top seeds in her section Kerber and Pliskova both having severe clay problems.
https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/womens/player-to-win-4th-quarter

Unfortunately a stinker of a draw for Kasatkina as she has to play the two favourites in her quarter

Nice column from Dan Weston here. He is a smart tennis writer in my opinion.
https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/french-open-betting/wta-french-open-2017-post-draw-betting-preview-270517-778.html

[BigAdz]

French Open ladies. For anyone with netbet or 10bet. Mladenovic at 6/1 for her quarter is a great bet (perhaps for anyone who isn't on Venus)
https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/womens/player-to-win-2nd-quarter

She is best priced 14/1 outright now.

Pav 8/1 for her quarter as an alternative to the 50s outright that is still around. She couldn't ask for a better draw with top seeds in her section Kerber and Pliskova both having severe clay problems.
https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/womens/player-to-win-4th-quarter

Unfortunately a stinker of a draw for Kasatkina as she has to play the two favourites in her quarter

Nice column from Dan Weston here. He is a smart tennis writer in my opinion.
https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/french-open-betting/wta-french-open-2017-post-draw-betting-preview-270517-778.html

Good to see he likes my 4th quarter doris!

[ripple11]

Ealing acton and central

" EALING CENTRAL & ACTON    LABOUR MAJORITY: 274    prediction LAB HOLD
    
Considering they're projected to win well over 50 seats from Labour, one would expect number three on the Tory target list to be a foregone conclusion. Yet due to this being in London, it is far from impossible that Rupa Huq hangs on, even on a bad night for the party. The Greens have withdrawn to help support her, thus more or less cancelling out the effect of UKIP's withdrawal.

If recent elections and polls are the guide, London will vote very differently from the rest of the country on June 8th. That was very much the case in 2015 and polls show little or no swing to the Tories since. This is a seat that voted 72% for Remain and prime for tactical voting."

published this morning in https://betting.betfair.com/politics/general-election-2017/betting-guide/index.html?utm_medium=SocialOrganic&utm_source=2147150&utm_campaign=8882721&utm_term=4945338&utm_content=120463926&utm_ad=293559990&rfr=798967&dclid=CJXL7eDxj9QCFaaHUQodPYQEFw

i have been speaking to neil about this,his patch

my thoughts the other day to him were

"obviously the big problem is the ukip collapse into con,running around 50% of their vote on some canvassing returns in other constituencies. lib dem to lab to stop con offsets this a bit.

2015

haq 22.2k

con 21.7k

lib 3.1k

ukip 1.7k

so lets assume ukip goes to 800k thats con 22.5k ish this time round. can't see many lab leavers going con so that should be a clean enough figure

leaves rupa needing 400kish or about 13% of the lib votes to hold on

this is a lot more winnable than other high profile lab marginals further north (gedling, bolsover, tom watson seats etc) where the ukip vote is huge so the consolidation into con really puts them at risk

of course london, remain vote big and ukip vote comparatively low

its also why lab at 35% in polls now may beat milibands vote share but might not be matched in seat gains, even though the campaign has been a big hit

anyway could certainly make the case for rupa being favourite here"


and you can still get 5/2

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/ealing-central-and-acton/winning-party


tikay is on already, i am on, neil is on.

Ashcroft poll info that was posted on the politics thread....  gives this a 58% chance to labour.

https://dashboards.lordashcroftpolls.com/Storyboard/RHViewStoryBoard.aspx?RId=%C2%B2&RLId=%C2%B2&PId=%C2%B1%C2%B4%C2%BA%C2%B5%C2%B4&UId=%C2%B4%C2%B9%C2%B9%C2%B9%C2%BC&RpId=2

fwiw.... the tory candidate boycotted a hustings the other night, and is threatening legal action over Neil's Huq's leaflet. 

Feels like a flip...so 5/2 looks value.

[Peter-27]

The winning margin bet is now available on the exchange at 19/10. I'm more confident about this bet after qualifying, suggest £20 for those who didn't already do it.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/monaco-grand-prix/winning-margin

Meanwhile, I don't usually bet on IndyCar as a rule given it's unpredictability, but my interest is higher this year given that a current F1 driver is racing (Fernando Alonso) so I had a look at the prices and have identified two bets for us.

Race Winner - Fernando Alonso @ 13/2 with SkyBet (6/1+ is okay with other bookies). I don't expect Fernando to win the race today, but I do expect his F1 experience to allow him to be in the mix - it's the EW part of this bet that makes it value (four places). Suggest £10 EW (1/4 1-4).

Race Winner - JR Hildebrand @ 33/1 with various. I can't quite work out why JR has a price this high. He's not having a great season, but he's undeniably quick. At Phoenix (the last oval IndyCar raced on), JR was 3rd. He'll start today's race from 6th. Suggest £10 EW (1/4 1-4).

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/indy/indy-500/winner

[TightEnd]

there is little liquidity on the exchange for winning margin

£182 has been matched on the whole market

however i note that at 8.28am someone placed this

F1 Monaco Grand Prix
10 Seconds and Over - Winning Margin
Betfair Bet ID 1:93993373929 | Matched: 28-May-17 08:26:58    Back   3.05    25.00

just as well i didn't duplicate then...

have the indy bets been done as well?

[tikay]

there is little liquidity on the exchange for winning margin

£182 has been matched on the whole market

however i note that at 8.28am someone placed this

F1 Monaco Grand Prix
10 Seconds and Over - Winning Margin
Betfair Bet ID 1:93993373929 | Matched: 28-May-17 08:26:58    Back   3.05    25.00

just as well i didn't duplicate then...

have the indy bets been done as well?

Ha, I can't do a thing without getting caught.

No, not done the Indy bets.

I am not sure why I did the Winning Margin bet to be honest, but it did look very good to me. Obv it can transfer to Fred if you so desire.

[TightEnd]

ok. yes i went on to place it

can't get 6/1+on alonso, the best i could get is 11/2. pleaseadvise if you want to take that price


J R Hildebrand Indy 500 Winner
33/1 Each Way (4 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £432.50

[exstream]

This winning margin bet
Over 10 seconds can still get 3/1 everywhere and 7/2
10 seconds and over is 19/10 exchange
Which

[Chompy]

This winning margin bet
Over 10 seconds can still get 3/1 everywhere and 7/2
10 seconds and over is 19/10 exchange
Which

£189 matched on the Betty market and zero liquidity. Useful guide?

[exstream]

Good point, didn't know if I was missing anything!