Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Sorry to say Wade and Smith both out of the darts at the first hurdle!  Me and lildave need sacking!  Wade looked like he was going to choke on stage.  He couldn't stop coughing and walked off the stage at 10-10 and sudden death.  No idea what was up with him.

Anderson hasn't thrown a dart for a week, suffering from jet lag from China and Vegas per his pre match interview.  Not ideal.  Playing like it as well.  He really sounds like he hates playing darts at times, practicing and the travelling.  Sounds like he would rather be doing a minimum wage job.

[Karabiner]

Some preliminary thoughts on the Open this week and my early bullets.


Stenson @30-1. Last years champ and tied 3rd last time at RB. Talking down his chances after this weekend, but looks a big price with the rest factored in.

Ryan Fox @250-1. Took a bit of this on Saturday, as he is playing as consistently well over the last few weeks as anyone on the Euro Tour atm. Made some proper mistakes yesterday, but kept coming straight back, and didnt let his head drop. Could be a lively outsider.

As a horses for courses merchant, i cant believe I am forcing myself to have my first ever bet on Harrington, but again at 66s I would feel a bit daft if he played well as a C&D man, who is in form. The 11/4 as Top Irish looks good too as we have a bad fav with Rory in a poor place at the moment, despite his positive press chats.

Casey is just a Top Ten backers dream in majors, and he played Birkdale well last time, despite a dreadful 78 to start. i think he is a better player now and 40s could be an ew play to nothing for a player who was T7 LTO at RB. He also looks a steal at 10-1 for Top GB paying 4 places.

Every Open needs to have a few quid at the under achieving yank, and this time im plumping for big Tony Finau.

Finally, I also cant help feeling i should top up on Rahm, even at almost 7 time the price less than we have in the vault. He could still be value.

Not recommendations at this point, but just helping to get the debate started.

Not just me that picks the odd plum or two then

[BigAdz]

Some preliminary thoughts on the Open this week and my early bullets.


Stenson @30-1. Last years champ and tied 3rd last time at RB. Talking down his chances after this weekend, but looks a big price with the rest factored in.

Ryan Fox @250-1. Took a bit of this on Saturday, as he is playing as consistently well over the last few weeks as anyone on the Euro Tour atm. Made some proper mistakes yesterday, but kept coming straight back, and didnt let his head drop. Could be a lively outsider.

As a horses for courses merchant, i cant believe I am forcing myself to have my first ever bet on Harrington, but again at 66s I would feel a bit daft if he played well as a C&D man, who is in form. The 11/4 as Top Irish looks good too as we have a bad fav with Rory in a poor place at the moment, despite his positive press chats.

Casey is just a Top Ten backers dream in majors, and he played Birkdale well last time, despite a dreadful 78 to start. i think he is a better player now and 40s could be an ew play to nothing for a player who was T7 LTO at RB. He also looks a steal at 10-1 for Top GB paying 4 places.

Every Open needs to have a few quid at the under achieving yank, and this time im plumping for big Tony Finau.

Finally, I also cant help feeling i should top up on Rahm, even at almost 7 time the price less than we have in the vault. He could still be value.

Not recommendations at this point, but just helping to get the debate started.

Not just me that picks the odd plum or two then

You're a sad man Ralph.

Had to be most predictable post of the week.

[tikay]

I wrote this last year and suggested a bet for the winning main event hand to be a pocket pair at 7/1.
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=67250.0

"I've gone through the stats of winning hole cards from Wikipedia from no limit holdem tournaments where it shows the winning hand. I've excluded mixed games/Pot Limit/Limit and ante up.

Here is my data: (pocket pairs/total tournaments)

WSOP Mains 13/44
12/35 WSOP 2016
9/34 WSOP 2015
5/33 WSOP 2014
6/36 WSOP 2013
10/45 EPT first five seasons (doesn't show hole cards on wikipedia after that)
16/38 WSOPE and Australia all time

Total 71/265 tournies where the winning hand was a pocket pair."


This year at WSOP I've just done a quick count of the NLH tournaments and winning hands at WSOP and I have got 11/40, a similar ratio. Giving us 82/306 once I've added last years ME too.

Again it is priced up at 7/1 with Choral in their WSOP section and I've bet again because I think it is value.

What do people think?

Hi Phill,

Just as a matter of interest......

I have been watching the heads up ( which is ongoing) and so far there have been over 60 hands, during which time neither player has been dealt a pocket pair.

"Must be due".........

[tikay]

.....and on hand #64 of Heads Up we see the first pocket pair. (6-6 for Blumstein, which lost).

[DropTheHammer]

And it would have been the winning hand if it held up. ul anyone who is on this tip but the shortly only has about 21BBs, although there is a break while they look into the amount of the last double up. Blunstein is getting quite agitated at Jack Eiffel claiming he should have one sixth of a BB back.

[tikay]

All over in dramatic fashion, as  AIPF is rivered by 

[SuuPRlim]

Sorry to say Wade and Smith both out of the darts at the first hurdle!  Me and lildave need sacking!  Wade looked like he was going to choke on stage.  He couldn't stop coughing and walked off the stage at 10-10 and sudden death.  No idea what was up with him.

Anderson hasn't thrown a dart for a week, suffering from jet lag from China and Vegas per his pre match interview.  Not ideal.  Playing like it as well.  He really sounds like he hates playing darts at times, practicing and the travelling.  Sounds like he would rather be doing a minimum wage job.

System's working fine.

Send more money.

[Marky147]

Arb's bet was a winner, so I owe Tikay a ton.

Shame I was restricted 

Cheers for the heads up, Arb.

[TightEnd]

Was dodt anywhere in the top debutante market? Top 4 needed

[nuros]

Don't know where he came but settled as a loser for me. Thanks for the Ramsay bet arb, some ride that one! Also Casey placed the top GB + Irl bet so thanks to whoever posted that (pretty sure that was on here anyway)!

[Marky147]

Dodt was T44 +3, but I'm unaware who the other debutants were.

[The Camel]

The standard in the Matchplay is woeful.

They are playing far too much. Hearn is too bloody greedy.

[doubleup]

Dodt was T44 +3, but I'm unaware who the other debutants were.

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:gXcZKjraNl4J:https://www.oddschecker.com/golf/open-championship/top-debutant+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk

li kim connelly schaufelle top four

[Karabiner]

Dodt was T44 +3, but I'm unaware who the other debutants were.

The 16-y-old kid Conolly must have won top deb. kudos to anyone who backed him.