Tips for Tikay

[atdc21]

365 are a 1/4 first 6

[BigAdz]

Can't put anyone off laying spurs at the price. Be nice to watch us win, though!

Any views on the Caesa Seasaw Cessa big race today?

If John Constable can convert his hurdles improvement to the flat, it's game over.

I have liked Time to Study for ages, hoping he would end up here, but have been slowed down by the poor record of 3 year olds and couldn't resist a few Bob ew on First Mohican at 50s with all those places on offer.

[atdc21]

Shrewd at 20/1 i like,( there was only 2pts in their odds last time, now hes more than double who dares wins price) got the weight pull with who dares wins from the 7lb claimer, didnt have the clearest of runs last time, but theres always a chance of that again with hold up horses in big fields.

[Tal]

4.10 at Chepstow is a 17 runner handicap.

Anyone putting me off the Alan King horses? River Frost and Wishing and Hoping. Both best price with Unsportingbet.

[Tal]

Fred should definitely be having a few in these drunk spider races.

[Tal]

FWIW I've backed a few but Withhold the strongest.

[Doobs]

you cant just lay Man city because 'they cant be exceptional every week ' can you?.....be a bit like backing Hamilton to not finish cos hes due it ? .... just asking

It isn't the same.  That other bet was pretty awful and I explained why.  

Someone suggested the big priced teams and I am not too convinced, so was just giving some thoughts.  

Of the three, I prefer laying City, as they are priced like they are the best team in the World amd Stoke are relegation fodder.   Neither is true, so laying City should be the bet and you should just suck up the frequent 4-0 drubbings.  They had games last year where they looked equally good, but they had others where they just weren't there.

Unfortunately we have a 5% betfair account and the other accounts are pretty much knacked,  so betting for profit is a bit hard right now.  I'd love to put stuff up for the big race, but I struggle to get on and so does thread, and I don't want to take bad value just to get a bet on.  

[atdc21]

ah.....ok

[kukushkin88]

you cant just lay Man city because 'they cant be exceptional every week ' can you?.....be a bit like backing Hamilton to not finish cos hes due it ? .... just asking

It isn't the same.  That other bet was pretty awful and I explained why.  

Someone suggested the big priced teams and I am not too convinced, so was just giving some thoughts.  

Of the three, I prefer laying City, as they are priced like they are the best team in the World amd Stoke are relegation fodder.   Neither is true, so laying City should be the bet and you should just suck up the frequent 4-0 drubbings.  They had games last year where they looked equally good, but they had others where they just weren't there.

Unfortunately we have a 5% betfair account and the other accounts are pretty much knacked,  so betting for profit is a bit hard right now.  I'd love to put stuff up for the big race, but I struggle to get on and so does thread, and I don't want to take bad value just to get a bet on.  

I'm interested to know why it is different? I've tried to work it out and I can't.

[Doobs]

you cant just lay Man city because 'they cant be exceptional every week ' can you?.....be a bit like backing Hamilton to not finish cos hes due it ? .... just asking

It isn't the same.  That other bet was pretty awful and I explained why.  

Someone suggested the big priced teams and I am not too convinced, so was just giving some thoughts.  

Of the three, I prefer laying City, as they are priced like they are the best team in the World amd Stoke are relegation fodder.   Neither is true, so laying City should be the bet and you should just suck up the frequent 4-0 drubbings.  They had games last year where they looked equally good, but they had others where they just weren't there.

Unfortunately we have a 5% betfair account and the other accounts are pretty much knacked,  so betting for profit is a bit hard right now.  I'd love to put stuff up for the big race, but I struggle to get on and so does thread, and I don't want to take bad value just to get a bet on.  

I'm interested to know why it is different? I've tried to work it out and I can't.

Did I mention the law of averages? 

One team is probably overated, the other is usually underated.  It isn't becausde Man City are due, it is the price that is likely wrong.  I could have put more in the first post, but the accounts are closed and the bets are rarely taken anyway these days. 

And the Dewhurst is probably the best betting race if you don't care about your 365 account. 

Things to do, good luck with your betting. 

[kukushkin88]

you cant just lay Man city because 'they cant be exceptional every week ' can you?.....be a bit like backing Hamilton to not finish cos hes due it ? .... just asking

It isn't the same.  That other bet was pretty awful and I explained why.  

Someone suggested the big priced teams and I am not too convinced, so was just giving some thoughts.  

Of the three, I prefer laying City, as they are priced like they are the best team in the World amd Stoke are relegation fodder.   Neither is true, so laying City should be the bet and you should just suck up the frequent 4-0 drubbings.  They had games last year where they looked equally good, but they had others where they just weren't there.

Unfortunately we have a 5% betfair account and the other accounts are pretty much knacked,  so betting for profit is a bit hard right now.  I'd love to put stuff up for the big race, but I struggle to get on and so does thread, and I don't want to take bad value just to get a bet on.  

I'm interested to know why it is different? I've tried to work it out and I can't.

Did I mention the law of averages? 

One team is probably overated, the other is usually underated.  It isn't becausde Man City are due, it is the price that is likely wrong.  I could have put more in the first post, but the accounts are closed and the bets are rarely taken anyway these days. 

And the Dewhurst is probably the best betting race if you don't care about your 365 account. 

Things to do, good luck with your betting. 

OK, It's only 'they can't be exceptional every week' sounds so much like 'they're due to be bad because of how good they've been'. Good luck to you too.

[Doobs]

you cant just lay Man city because 'they cant be exceptional every week ' can you?.....be a bit like backing Hamilton to not finish cos hes due it ? .... just asking

It isn't the same.  That other bet was pretty awful and I explained why.  

Someone suggested the big priced teams and I am not too convinced, so was just giving some thoughts.  

Of the three, I prefer laying City, as they are priced like they are the best team in the World amd Stoke are relegation fodder.   Neither is true, so laying City should be the bet and you should just suck up the frequent 4-0 drubbings.  They had games last year where they looked equally good, but they had others where they just weren't there.

Unfortunately we have a 5% betfair account and the other accounts are pretty much knacked,  so betting for profit is a bit hard right now.  I'd love to put stuff up for the big race, but I struggle to get on and so does thread, and I don't want to take bad value just to get a bet on.  

I'm interested to know why it is different? I've tried to work it out and I can't.

Did I mention the law of averages? 

One team is probably overated, the other is usually underated.  It isn't becausde Man City are due, it is the price that is likely wrong.  I could have put more in the first post, but the accounts are closed and the bets are rarely taken anyway these days. 

And the Dewhurst is probably the best betting race if you don't care about your 365 account. 

Things to do, good luck with your betting. 

OK, It's only 'they can't be exceptional every week' sounds so much like 'they're due to be bad because of how good they've been'. Good luck to you too.

How many years data do we have on Mercedes engine reliability and how many teams do they supply?   We have way more data, we know where they are right now.  The price was 7/1.  Is that a good price or not, and why?

Why do you think I was wrong on City/Stoke?  Is 8 games enough to change our thinking on City, are Stoke no longer reliable mid table?

That is what the board is for.  We get shit wrong, we learn from them. We learn the difference between 2 similar sounding bets.  . 

FWIW You made a bad choice on continuing the argument rather than discussing the Dewhurst. 

[kukushkin88]

you cant just lay Man city because 'they cant be exceptional every week ' can you?.....be a bit like backing Hamilton to not finish cos hes due it ? .... just asking

It isn't the same.  That other bet was pretty awful and I explained why.  

Someone suggested the big priced teams and I am not too convinced, so was just giving some thoughts.  

Of the three, I prefer laying City, as they are priced like they are the best team in the World amd Stoke are relegation fodder.   Neither is true, so laying City should be the bet and you should just suck up the frequent 4-0 drubbings.  They had games last year where they looked equally good, but they had others where they just weren't there.

Unfortunately we have a 5% betfair account and the other accounts are pretty much knacked,  so betting for profit is a bit hard right now.  I'd love to put stuff up for the big race, but I struggle to get on and so does thread, and I don't want to take bad value just to get a bet on.  

I'm interested to know why it is different? I've tried to work it out and I can't.

Did I mention the law of averages? 

One team is probably overated, the other is usually underated.  It isn't becausde Man City are due, it is the price that is likely wrong.  I could have put more in the first post, but the accounts are closed and the bets are rarely taken anyway these days. 

And the Dewhurst is probably the best betting race if you don't care about your 365 account. 

Things to do, good luck with your betting. 

OK, It's only 'they can't be exceptional every week' sounds so much like 'they're due to be bad because of how good they've been'. Good luck to you too.

How many years data do we have on Mercedes engine reliability and how many teams do they supply?   We have way more data, we know where they are right now.  The price was 7/1.  Is that a good price or not, and why?

Why do you think I was wrong on City/Stoke?  Is 8 games enough to change our thinking on City, are Stoke no longer reliable mid table?

That is what the board is for.  We get shit wrong, we learn from them. We learn the difference between 2 similar sounding bets.  . 

FWIW You made a bad choice on continuing the argument rather than discussing the Dewhurst. 

Quite a result in The Dewhurst. I agree on everything you've said on Mercedes re: 'due' to DNF. I also think taking City on is a solid bet. The discussion is only that the given reason was remarkably similar to Peter's flawed 'due' reasoning. Hope you got the lot in The Dewhurst!

[Tal]

FWIW I've backed a few but Withhold the strongest.

Click to see full-size image.

[McGlashan]

you cant just lay Man city because 'they cant be exceptional every week ' can you?.....be a bit like backing Hamilton to not finish cos hes due it ? .... just asking

It isn't the same.  That other bet was pretty awful and I explained why.  

Someone suggested the big priced teams and I am not too convinced, so was just giving some thoughts.  

Of the three, I prefer laying City, as they are priced like they are the best team in the World amd Stoke are relegation fodder.   Neither is true, so laying City should be the bet and you should just suck up the frequent 4-0 drubbings.  They had games last year where they looked equally good, but they had others where they just weren't there.

Unfortunately we have a 5% betfair account and the other accounts are pretty much knacked,  so betting for profit is a bit hard right now.  I'd love to put stuff up for the big race, but I struggle to get on and so does thread, and I don't want to take bad value just to get a bet on.  

I enjoy reading the stuff you put up. For thread interest Tikay may have a 2% EPL commission opt in promo for October, it should be on the exchange homepage.